How Much Better Than Nylander Is Marner?

[saffronleaf]

He was offersheeted higher than that.

We should have let him be offer sheeted. If he received more than the 4 1sts threshold, you let him walk and use that cap space and the 4 1sts. If he received less than the 4 1sts threshold, then the contract would be smaller in AAV than it is now.

In no world should the Leafs have offered Marner more than the 4 1sts threshold.

 

[Notsince67]

Nylander needs to be producing at a rate above 1 pt/100k but marner can produce at less than 1pt/100k for their contracts to be fair? How does that work?

If Nylander at 6.96x6 needs to produce 75 pts/82 games for a fair deal (works out to ~10.78 pts /million dollars)

Marner then has to produce 10.9x10.78 = 117.5 (118) pts/82 games for his deal to be relatively as fair a bargain

Your expectations for Nylander are too high at 6.96

65 pts per82 is good for Nylander at 6.96

102 pts per 82 is good for Marner at 10.9

Nylander signed a 7mm contract for 5.6 years. Over 6 years it is 7.5.
Points also dont scale linearly upward with contracts....but if you insist on making it easier on willy, let's do it another way.
Take take both their pnts per game in their rfa contract and look at the difference. The percentage difference exceeds their contract difference and we arent even calculating the games willy was paid not to play. Do that, and the contract difference would be astronomical

 

[Notsince67]

This is the regular season stats…….it’s the playoffs that really count. That’s where the cup is awarded.
The regular season means basically nothing

Show me 1 contract model that accounts for playoff games....hint there isnt one.

 

[Racer88]

Show me 1 contract model that accounts for playoff games....hint there isnt one.

I’m not saying there is one. What I am saying is that regular season stats don’t mean a dam thing if a player cant get it done in the playoffs.
The playoffs and the cup are what the entire thing is all about.
Great players come thru when it matters……..the playoffs.
Unfortunately Marner is not that player and in my opinion that makes him not even close to worth his contract

 

[Notsince67]

So wait….
6.969 = 75
10.893= 90+?

What type of math is that? Are you sure you learned how to count yourself dude cuz that don’t make any sense.

nylanders cap hit is 70th in the league, Marners is 7th, your telling me the difference between the 70th best player and 7th is 15 points?

So, Marner doesn’t need to improve past his contract signing but nylander does?

The difference in cap hit doesn’t equate to the difference in production in your post. Marners cap hit is around 1.55x higher than nylanders but his production only needs to be 1.20x higher?? Then why’d Marner get paid the most for a winger if he’s not even gonna be top 5 in his position?

You dont understand that the two numbers are equitable.
1st point is that Nylnaders 6.9 is for 5.6 years of hockey not 6. It is 7.5mm for 6.
Secondly, points dont scale upwards linearly.
If you disagree, do it your own way. Points per game differential and scale Willys salary up by the same percentage. Marner would make more...even if you dont add 40% of 1 season's games that willy sat out.

 

[Notsince67]

For those who want to relitigate an already over talked subject of contracts...I will sum it up.
Marner got over paid....how much?
His comparables were almost exactly Patrick Kanes. Cap adjusted, Kane got just over 9mm for 5 years. A 6th year would have moved the contract closer to 10. Marner overpaid by .6mm.
Nylanders comparables really close to Ehlers. Ehlers got 6 million over 7. Nylander got signed for 5.6 years with 1 less ufa year. Even with cap inflation (6.3mm to 6.4mm), his contract should have been sub 6MM per year for that term. He was overpaid by over 1 million. If you want to talk about contract performances, just compare point per game differencial.
An unfair way would be to add all the points and all the games played which Marner does better at relative to the contract.
A fair way would gross up the game denomentator for Nylander by 33 games (the games he was paid to not play when he held out) to which Marners contract beats his significantly)

 

[Racer88]

This will be my final attempt in this thread.
Assist and goals in the regular season mean very little as far as team success standpoint.
All they do is drive the price for the player up.
The entire season has only 1 purpose and that’s to
A- make the playoffs
The playoffs are where a player proves his true worth.
In the playoffs Nylander has been worth much more the Marner.
In fact I would argue that Marner is probably the worse 11 million dollar in the playoffs.
One thing has always been true in racing and it applies to hockey as well
Winners get paid and winners get laid. However Marner and much of the team have been paid before they have one anything

 

[Coachcorner]

It's more of a mental thang with marner. Willy was a clutch in the plezayoffs sire. We need thugs out thurr, just like any other winners. We ain't have enough thugs and killas for us. Only for the scrilla.

Marner is valuable on the PK. He was and used to be good offensively too. Remember that hyman tavares marner line... that was our best line. He ain't have that heart anymore. He getting older, crumbling unda presha. Arrogant, gittin money. That's what happens to many of us. That yellow thang is rising in our heads. It shows.

 

[Gary Nylund]

For those who want to relitigate an already over talked subject of contracts...I will sum it up.
Marner got over paid....how much?
His comparables were almost exactly Patrick Kanes. Cap adjusted, Kane got just over 9mm for 5 years. A 6th year would have moved the contract closer to 10. Marner overpaid by .6mm.
Nylanders comparables really close to Ehlers. Ehlers got 6 million over 7. Nylander got signed for 5.6 years with 1 less ufa year. Even with cap inflation (6.3mm to 6.4mm), his contract should have been sub 6MM per year for that term. He was overpaid by over 1 million. If you want to talk about contract performances, just compare point per game differencial.
An unfair way would be to add all the points and all the games played which Marner does better at relative to the contract.
A fair way would gross up the game denomentator for Nylander by 33 games (the games he was paid to not play when he held out) to which Marners contract beats his significantly)

You can do all the comparisons you want to justify Marner's contract but as long as his level of play drops off the minute the playoffs start, he remains to me a regular season wonder, who's not worth anywhere close to that much to a team that wants playoff success.

Then again, if regular season success is what matters to you I guess you're happy so I dunno, be happy I guess. But you should understand that some of us value playoff success over regular season points, I think that's most of us actually. Cheers.

 

[Garthinater]

Nylander shouldve gotten around 6.5.

Marner shouldve gotten around 9.5 so about 3 mil difference.

The only reason marner got overpaid was because of matthews.

Auston got 11.34 x 5 for a career high of 63 points.

Marner had a 94 point season and was out best playoff producer at the time.

If auston took a fair deal, 11 x 8, marner isn't getting 10.9 x 6.

Dubas is the worst contract negotiator for rfa's.

 

[Dough72]

wonder if Marner just needs to tweak how he plays in the playoffs. During the regular season there is enough ice that he can single-handedly make big plays for a scoring chance. It might be time to think about smaller plays instead of looking for homeruns. I usually like hyman on that line but maybe add another offensie player and have Marner set that guy up, and that guy can set Matthews up kind of thing

 

[socko]

You don’t know what his next contract will look like and I really doubt Tampa tries to move their most important forward..

...and where did I say anything about an 8M bridge for Marner?

I’d be hesitant to give Marner 8x8. On a 3 year term I’m looking in the 6-6.5 range.

If Mitch wasn’t good with either I would have let him hold out for a deal I like, or, take the OS compensation and let someone else deal with the headache.

I'd gladly give him that eight year deal with every intention of flipping him for a hockey player.

 

[Aashir]

You dont understand that the two numbers are equitable.
1st point is that Nylnaders 6.9 is for 5.6 years of hockey not 6. It is 7.5mm for 6.
Secondly, points dont scale upwards linearly.
If you disagree, do it your own way. Points per game differential and scale Willys salary up by the same percentage. Marner would make more...even if you dont add 40% of 1 season's games that willy sat out.

Ok no point in arguing over this cuz obviously your stance isn’t changing. Every time you say something that gets countered, another point springs out of nowhere. For the teams sake and his own sake, let’s just hope Marner is A) Dominant in the regular season B) Great in the playoffs and C) Put in a position to succeed by our coach.

 

[Morbo]

well, one produces at a ~100 point rate, the other at a ~65 point rate.

I'd say both have had uneven playoff careers thus far.

 

[saffronleaf]

Paul is back here with a vengeance. Not a hint of shame shilling for someone with zero goals in 18 straight playoffs games.

 

[socko]

well, one produces at a ~100 point rate, the other at a ~65 point rate.

I'd say both have had uneven playoff careers thus far.

If you go by even strength points per 60 and you say that Marner is 100 point guy, than Nylander would be an 80 point guy. That's with Marner playing with Matthews who won the Rocket and Nylander playing with Tavares who was dog crap most of the season.

 

[Notsince67]

If you go by even strength points per 60 and you say that Marner is 100 point guy, than Nylander would be an 80 point guy. That's with Marner playing with Matthews who won the Rocket and Nylander playing with Tavares who was dog crap most of the season.

Marner was scoring at over a 90 pt rate with Kadri without Matthew's on his pp. He was scoring over a 90 pt rate with Tavares while willy couldnt break 65 with Matthew's.
Let's get real.

 

[Trapper]

I think the question should be how much better is this team vs. what are are seeing the playoffs really are.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marner was scoring at over a 90 pt rate with Kadri without Matthew's on his pp. He was scoring over a 90 pt rate with Tavares while willy couldnt break 65 with Matthew's.
Let's get real.

Regular season point rates, whoopee.

 

[socko]

I don't see any issue with adjusting for 5 on 5 ice time. It seems logical. Willy gets shafted on ice time. I would also point out he doesn't play on the top PP, but then that might be an advantage.

And furthermore, the regular season doesn't mean much.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Regular season point rates, whoopee.

Such a valued title!

The Mitch Marner award
Received when a player is on the top PP all year and doesn't score
Also received when you go more than 15 games in the playoffs without a goal, despite top line, top PP and top minutes overall

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't see any issue with adjusting for 5 on 5 ice time. It seems logical. Willy gets shafted on ice time. I would also point out he doesn't play on the top PP, but then that might be an advantage.

And furthermore, the regular season doesn't mean much.

Could be. On the other hand, put Nylander on the top PP instead of Marner and maybe it kicks ass. Nylander has a great shot so focusing on Matthews could turn out to be costly.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Could be. On the other hand, put Nylander on the top PP instead of Marner and maybe it kicks ass. Nylander has a great shot so focusing on Matthews could turn out to be costly.

And it wasn't even tried.
Possibly b/c Mitch would be upset

 

[Gary Nylund]

And it wasn't even tried.
Possibly b/c Mitch would be upset

I was going to mention that Keefe is a complete donkey for never trying this but then I though maybe he tried it and I just don't remember.

If you're right then - Keefe, you're a donkey!

 

[Craig Button]

You conveniently left out their playoff production, which is a far more important indicator.

Furthermore, Nylander's compete level in the playoffs was far greater than Marner, and that can't be measured with statistics.

Lol you’re hilarious.
I can’t tell if your serious are trolling for laughs.

but with your “logic”
I guess also think Nylander and Kerfoot are better players than Matthews

2020-21 Skating Postseason Toronto Maple Leafs ES


I hate to think what you thought about Matthews performance. At least Marner was very effective penalty killer.