How Much Better Than Nylander Is Marner?

[sparxx87]

A bridge deal is usually when you have something to prove, and Point has nothing to prove, he's an elite player. I think he just caved. That's incredible value for the Lightning.

Make it clear to him that it’s not about how they value him, it’s about how the numbers fit under the cap to give the Tampa Bay Lightning the best chance to win.

...and now with a ring, I’d say everyone is happy.

Point will get a nice raise after next season.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Only mcdavid and eichel signed 8 year deals. The industry standard for elite elc players is 5/6 years. Tired of this lazy narrative

McDavid & Eichel were his comparables

 

[Aashir]

I don’t hate the guy. I just don’t think he will be a guy we can rely on when the chips are down either. I really don’t think we have many of those guys.
We act as if Nylander was some kind of revelation but, deep down, we know he is the king of the flybys and is rarely willing to physically engage.
We have just gotten use to completely soulless players on this team. Because he is slightly better, we think he is a “playoff performer” now.
I appreciate his talents but I would gladly see him traded for the tkachuck, Wilson, kadri types. At least those players play with passion..... but we have 4th liners for that

No, I’ll take a guy who plays in the playoffs over a guy who doesn’t. Mathew tckachuk can’t perform at even a 3rd line role in the playoffs so nn the other hand, Wilson would be interesting however, if he can keep not getting suspended I’d look into that. Anyone else like bertuzzi, Konecny, etc no, one just had surgery and the other is even worse of a playoff performer then any of our big 4. And the others I don’t think garner enough value to be traded for

 

[Craig Button]

He's not better. He's a better playmaker perhaps, but Nylander is better in every other facet of the game, period.

Marner in 55 games this season score 20 goals.
Nylander scored 17 in 51.

of course Marner will have more assists so I’m not even gonna go there.

Game winning Goals. Marner has 5 Nylander is 2.

Hits. Marner has 23. Nylander 12.

Block shots. Marner with 41 and Nylander with a whopping 15.

Marner our best penalty killer leads forwards with SHTOI 106:52. Nylander with a laughable 41 seconds.


Yeah you’re right.
Nylander is much better in every other facet of the game. We just don’t know what they are..... hair maybe

 

[ponder]

Salaries don't exist in a vacuum - you have to look at things like RFA vs. UFA status, as well as term and player age. For RFAs, RFA seasons should come fairly cheap, while UFA seasons should be more expensive. Both Marner and Willie were RFAs, and we bought 4 RFA years, 2 UFA years - this should make them relatively cheaper.

I believe this is the list of every single current deal that was signed when the player was an RFA, for $5.5+ mil AAV, for a player who is at least a part-time winger, ordered from highest to lowest AAV:

• Mitchell Marner - 6 years, $10,903,000 AAV
• Alex Ovechkin - 13 years, $9,538,462 AAV
• Nikita Kucherov - 8 years, $9,500,000 AAV
• Mikko Rantanen - 6 years, $9,250,000 AAV
• Leon Draisaitl - 8 years, $8,500,000 AAV
• Sebastian Aho - 5 years, $8,460,250 AAV
• Claude Giroux - 8 years, $8,275,000 AAV
• Ryan Johansen - 8 years, $8,000,000 AAV
• Vladimir Tarasenko - 8 years, $7,500,000 AAV
• Clayton Keller - 8 years, $7,150,000 AAV
• Kyle Connor - 7 years, $7,142,857 AAV
• Matthew Tkachuk - 3 years, $7,000,000 AAV
• William Nylander - 6 years, $6,962,366 AAV
• Patrik Laine - 2 years, $6,750,000 AAV
• Johnny Gaudreau - 6 years, $6,750,000 AAV
• Brayden Point - 3 years, $6,750,000 AAV
• David Pastrnak - 6 years, $6,666,667 AAV
• Alex DeBrincat - 3 years, $6,400,000 AAV
• Timo Meier - 4 years, $6,000,000 AAV
• Nikolaj Ehlers - 7 years, $6,000,000 AAV
• Filip Forsberg - 6 years, $6,000,000 AAV
• Brandon Saad - 6 years, $6,000,000 AAV
• Jake Guentzel - 5 years, $6,000,000 AAV
• Jonathan Huberdeau - 6 years, $5,900,000 AAV
• Brock Boeser - 3 years, $5,875,000 AAV
• Nick Schmaltz - 7 years, $5,850,000 AAV
• Anthony Mantha - 4 years, $5,700,000 AAV
• Tomas Hertl - 4 years, $5,625,000 AAV
• Gabriel Landeskog - 7 years, $5,571,429 AAV
• Travis Konecny - 6 years, $5,500,000 AAV
• Jonathan Drouin - 6 years, $5,500,000 AAV
• Jason Zucker - 5 years, $5,500,000 AAV
• Josh Anderson - 7 years, $5,500,000 AAV

* Note: some of these guys play a mix of C and W, like Drai, Aho, Giroux, RyJo, Point, but they all play at least a decent amount of wing, most seasons

Obviously some guys are total steals, like Pasta, but I think fair market value for Marner's deal would be around $7.5-8.5 mil. Other than Marner, only 3 current winger RFA deals exceed $8.5 mil AAV - Ovie/Kucherov/Rantanen, all at $9.25 to $9.54 mil AAV. Ovie was a clear generational talent when he signed, a top 2 player in the league trending towards being one of the greatest goal scorers of all time, and soooo much bigger and more physical than Marner. Not remotely comparable. Kucherov was closer, but he was still significantly better than Marner when both signed their respective deals. Rantanen and Marner had very similar production, but all else being equal, obviously you take the 6'4" 215 lb beast over the 6' 175 lb twig. I don't see how anyone can argue that Marner was worth $9.5 mil+, especially on an RFA deal where we only bought 2 UFA years.

For Willie, I'd say fair market value would be around $6-7 mil, he's in-line with the mid-range of guys signed at that price.

Willie is at the upper end of fair, while Marner's is clearly very overpaid, a solid ~$2.5 mil over the upper end of fair. Marner is a top 10 winger in the league, but is paid like a generational talent. Even compared to the highest AAV in the league, at any position (McDavid), I'd say the Marner deal is similar - $1.6 mil less AAV than McDavid, BUT we only bought 2 Marner UFA years, vs. 4 for McDavid, similar salaries when you take into account term IMO. And obviously Marner is nowhere close to McDavid as a player.

I went with Marner being worth $1-2 mil more than Willie.

 

[Aashir]

Why would any of them of signed those deals? Those are all under value

On 8 years:

Only Marner is significantly undervalued. Maybe 1.25-1.5 million. Rantanen signed 9.25 x 6, Marner should make around the same

Nylander is probably underpaid by 500k-750k. Ehlers, his comparable signed 6 x 7, so a 500k-750k raise is fine

Matthews is exactly where he should be, maybe 500k more, he hasn’t proven anything more then eichel, both had almost identical production, and goals shouldn’t be valued more than points. 500k can be argued for playing in the playoffs.

Problem is they didn’t even take 8 years, they took 5-6 years. All three combined took an extra 3-4m from the team if they were on 8 years. On 5-6 we are probably looking at 4-5.5m. That’s kapanen still being on this team, or another bottom 6/quality 3rd liner.

 

[Notsince67]

Why would Brayden Point sign his deal after a 40+ goal 90+ point season? And as a Selke caliber centreman?

3 years @ 6.75M per.

zero ufa years given up. You understand what a
rfa bridge is right?

 

[Notsince67]

Salaries don't exist in a vacuum - you have to look at things like RFA vs. UFA status, as well as term and player age. For RFAs, RFA seasons should come fairly cheap, while UFA seasons should be more expensive. Both Marner and Willie were RFAs, and we bought 4 RFA years, 2 UFA years - this should make them relatively cheaper.

I believe this is the list of every single current deal that was signed when the player was an RFA, for $5.5+ mil AAV, for a player who is at least a part-time winger, ordered from highest to lowest AAV:

• Mitchell Marner - 6 years, $10,903,000 AAV
• Alex Ovechkin - 13 years, $9,538,462 AAV
• Nikita Kucherov - 8 years, $9,500,000 AAV
• Mikko Rantanen - 6 years, $9,250,000 AAV
• Leon Draisaitl - 8 years, $8,500,000 AAV
• Sebastian Aho - 5 years, $8,460,250 AAV
• Claude Giroux - 8 years, $8,275,000 AAV
• Ryan Johansen - 8 years, $8,000,000 AAV
• Vladimir Tarasenko - 8 years, $7,500,000 AAV
• Clayton Keller - 8 years, $7,150,000 AAV
• Kyle Connor - 7 years, $7,142,857 AAV
• Matthew Tkachuk - 3 years, $7,000,000 AAV
• William Nylander - 6 years, $6,962,366 AAV
• Patrik Laine - 2 years, $6,750,000 AAV
• Johnny Gaudreau - 6 years, $6,750,000 AAV
• Brayden Point - 3 years, $6,750,000 AAV
• David Pastrnak - 6 years, $6,666,667 AAV
• Alex DeBrincat - 3 years, $6,400,000 AAV
• Timo Meier - 4 years, $6,000,000 AAV
• Nikolaj Ehlers - 7 years, $6,000,000 AAV
• Filip Forsberg - 6 years, $6,000,000 AAV
• Brandon Saad - 6 years, $6,000,000 AAV
• Jake Guentzel - 5 years, $6,000,000 AAV
• Jonathan Huberdeau - 6 years, $5,900,000 AAV
• Brock Boeser - 3 years, $5,875,000 AAV
• Nick Schmaltz - 7 years, $5,850,000 AAV
• Anthony Mantha - 4 years, $5,700,000 AAV
• Tomas Hertl - 4 years, $5,625,000 AAV
• Gabriel Landeskog - 7 years, $5,571,429 AAV
• Travis Konecny - 6 years, $5,500,000 AAV
• Jonathan Drouin - 6 years, $5,500,000 AAV
• Jason Zucker - 5 years, $5,500,000 AAV
• Josh Anderson - 7 years, $5,500,000 AAV

* Note: some of these guys play a mix of C and W, like Drai, Aho, Giroux, RyJo, Point, but they all play at least a decent amount of wing, most seasons

Obviously some guys are total steals, like Pasta, but I think fair market value for Marner's deal would be around $7.5-8.5 mil. Other than Marner, only 3 current winger RFA deals exceed $8.5 mil AAV - Ovie/Kucherov/Rantanen, all at $9.25 to $9.54 mil AAV. Ovie was a clear generational talent when he signed, a top 2 player in the league trending towards being one of the greatest goal scorers of all time, and soooo much bigger and more physical than Marner. Not remotely comparable. Kucherov was closer, but he was still significantly better than Marner when both signed their respective deals. Rantanen and Marner had very similar production, but all else being equal, obviously you take the 6'4" 215 lb beast over the 6' 175 lb twig. I don't see how anyone can argue that Marner was worth $9.5 mil+, especially on an RFA deal where we only bought 2 UFA years.

For Willie, I'd say fair market value would be around $6-7 mil, he's in-line with the mid-range of guys signed at that price.

Willie is at the upper end of fair, while Marner's is clearly very overpaid, a solid ~$2.5 mil over the upper end of fair. Marner is a top 10 winger in the league, but is paid like a generational talent. Even compared to the highest AAV in the league, at any position (McDavid), I'd say the Marner deal is similar - $1.6 mil less AAV than McDavid, BUT we only bought 2 Marner UFA years, vs. 4 for McDavid, similar salaries when you take into account term IMO. And obviously Marner is nowhere close to McDavid as a player.

I went with Marner being worth $1-2 mil more than Willie.

if you go back through the history of this forum, you can read a bit on the proper valuation of salaries.
No offense but this is awful.

 

[sparxx87]

zero ufa years given up. You understand what a
rfa bridge is right?

Yes. I added the 3 year term thinking most would understand 3 year ELC + 3 more years still equals RFA. Expected most to know this would be considered a bridge deal.

Team retains rights but will have more money for a long term deal at that point.

This was/is good for their team and it’s competitive balance.

 

[Notsince67]

On 8 years:

Only Marner is significantly undervalued. Maybe 1.25-1.5 million. Rantanen signed 9.25 x 6, Marner should make around the same

Nylander is probably underpaid by 500k-750k. Ehlers, his comparable signed 6 x 7, so a 500k-750k raise is fine

Matthews is exactly where he should be, maybe 500k more, he hasn’t proven anything more then eichel, both had almost identical production, and goals shouldn’t be valued more than points. 500k can be argued for playing in the playoffs.

Problem is they didn’t even take 8 years, they took 5-6 years. All three combined took an extra 3-4m from the team if they were on 8 years. On 5-6 we are probably looking at 4-5.5m. That’s kapanen still being on this team, or another bottom 6/quality 3rd liner.

Nylander is paid too little? To date, he has underperformed his contract.
Marner outperformed Rantanen and deserved more than him

 

[Racer88]

I can’t see how Marner is worth anymore then 6.5 - 7.25 for a player that can’t even maintain his game let alone elevated for the playoffs
Razzle dazzle plays in the regular season are fun but don’t lead to meaningful success

 

[Jozay]

Marner should be making around 9.5-10 a year, IMO.

Nylander around 7 is fair.

I would say marner is about 2.5-3 million aav bettee than nylander.

 

[Notsince67]

Yes. I added the 3 year term thinking most would understand 3 year ELC + 3 more years still equals RFA. Expected most to know this would be considered a bridge deal.

Team retains rights but will have more money for a long term deal at that point.

This was/is good for their team and it’s competitive balance.

The team is already hard pressed with the cap. Point will be looking at a rich payday when this contract is done.

 

[socko]

Yes. I added the 3 year term thinking most would understand 3 year ELC + 3 more years still equals RFA. Expected most to know this would be considered a bridge deal.

Team retains rights but will have more money for a long term deal at that point.

This was/is good for their team and it’s competitive balance.

Hell yes it was a good deal for Tampa. Point will never recover that money he gave up in that deal. Obviously other things were more important to him.

 

[Racer88]

Nylander is paid too little? To date, he has underperformed his contract.
Marner outperformed Rantanen and deserved more than him

I think Rantanen just had 5 goals and 8 assists in 8 playoff games this year.
Marner has had 0 goals and 4 assist in 7 games this year…..who out performed who.

 

[sparxx87]

The team is already hard pressed with the cap. Point will be looking at a rich payday when this contract is done.

Indeed. And he’ll deserve it.

...but do you see why that 3 year deal made so much sense for them at the time?

 

[sparxx87]

Hell yes it was a good deal for Tampa. Point will never recover that money he gave up in that deal. Obviously other things were more important to him.

Yeah.

I wonder how many retired NHL stars without a cup but $100M+ in earnings would give 10 of it back for a ring or two? Obviously we’re talking percentages with inflation, but I think a fair question.

Hard to say what the split would be, but I know which guys I want on my team.

 

[Notsince67]

I think Rantanen just had 5 goals and 8 assists in 8 playoff games this year.
Marner has had 0 goals and 4 assist in 7 games this year…..who out performed who.

Last I checked, Marner and rantanen were signed 2 years ago

 

[Notsince67]

Indeed. And he’ll deserve it.

...but do you see why that 3 year deal made so much sense for them at the time?

History will tell. Point is an awesome player and the idea of losing him early will put strain on that team

 

[Clark4Ever]

Marner in 55 games this season score 20 goals.
Nylander scored 17 in 51.

of course Marner will have more assists so I’m not even gonna go there.

Game winning Goals. Marner has 5 Nylander is 2.

Hits. Marner has 23. Nylander 12.

Block shots. Marner with 41 and Nylander with a whopping 15.

Marner our best penalty killer leads forwards with SHTOI 106:52. Nylander with a laughable 41 seconds.


Yeah you’re right.
Nylander is much better in every other facet of the game. We just don’t know what they are..... hair maybe

You conveniently left out their playoff production, which is a far more important indicator.

Furthermore, Nylander's compete level in the playoffs was far greater than Marner, and that can't be measured with statistics.

 

[sparxx87]

History will tell. Point is an awesome player and the idea of losing him early will put strain on that team

History?

Winning cures most issues in sport. They’ll have an entire year + offseason to negotiate a long term deal with one of their most important players... where both parties are indebted to eachother because of at least one championship as a result.

 

[Notsince67]

History?

Winning cures most issues in sport. They’ll have an entire year + offseason to negotiate a long term deal with one of their most important players... where both parties are indebted to eachother because of at least one championship as a result.

The cap will move up 2mm after next year by just hitting past revenue targets. After that, there could be a rapid rise in the cap due to post covid revenue bounce and the better tv contract. Guaranteed he will not give up UFA years for pess than a premium.

 

[Racer88]

Last I checked, Marner and rantanen were signed 2 years ago

I’m not sure I understand your response.
I thought we were comparing who, out performed who.
Ranatanen out performed Marner by a wide margin and I didn’t even go all the way back to the 18 playoff games that he has only scored 1 goal in.
The season that just ended Marner had 20 goals and 47 assists playing with the best shooter in the NHL.
Rantanen had 30 goals and 36 assist. He sounds like the better all round player even befor you add in the fact that he blows Marner out of the water in the post season

 

[Racer88]

The cap will move up 2mm after next year by just hitting past revenue targets. After that, there could be a rapid rise in the cap due to post covid revenue bounce and the better tv contract. Guaranteed he will not give up UFA years for pess than a premium.

Have you factored in the massive escrow payments that the players currently owe the teams because of all the money the teams lost during the last 2 seasons? The cap will not rise until that has been paid back. Most hockey financial experts think it will take 4 years before the cap begins to move up

 

[Jojalu]

I can’t see how Marner is worth anymore then 6.5 - 7.25 for a player that can’t even maintain his game let alone elevated for the playoffs
Razzle dazzle plays in the regular season are fun but don’t lead to meaningful success

Really? Barzals winning goal last night was pretty razzle dazzle.

Tampa has scored a tonne of razzle dazzle goals this playoffs and last.

Yon need both.