Right now there are about 29 RHD 30 or younger who are slated to be UFA next year.
Many will likely re-up with their existing teams, but many may want to see what happens with the cap next year.
Thinking overall team, I'd have to go with letting him walk and seeing who wants to join the Leafs out of the entire pool of UFA defenders.
Only so much cap space, and Rielly's going to hit a home run in a couple seasons likely in the Doughty area.
There is no guarantee the cap is going grow to cover the increases.
Leafs are more likely to focus on Muzzin and hope to get him resigned than Barrie.
Leafs invested a 1st round pick and 2 X formerly 2nd round drafted prospects (Grundstrom & Durzi) to acquire Muzzin which would be a big cost if he were a 1 year rental player. So with the higher acquisition cost the more likely of the players to be retained over Barrie.
With Rielly coming due in a few years, it would be hard to see locking up Barrie for the $8-$9 mil knowing Morgan will exceed that on his next deal, you would have to be prepared to reserve that space for him on his next big deal.
So I agree I think the Leafs are likely to walk away from Barrie, retained Muzzin, save cap space for future and promote Kids in training now, and take their chances on the UFA market adding some depth next summer.