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How many points will it take to make the playoffs - 2013-14 edition

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SPOILER ALERT

The Kings will open the playoffs on the road in San Jose.

One more thing it will be a carbon copy of last year's round 2 right up until Justin Williams sticks a dagger in the Sharks in Game 7.
 
After the games of 3/4/14

Phoenix is back alone in the "just out of it" position, projecting to 89 points, making the "safe" (that is, non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 90 points, translating to a record of 6-11-2 (a percentage of .368). As of this moment, that also is enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Minnesota (1WC - 98 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 118 pts)
Chicago (3C - 112 pts) at Colorado (2C - 112 pts)

Dallas (2WC - 90 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 120 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 99 pts) at San Jose (2P - 111 pts)

Catching the Sharks
If the Sharks go .500 for the rest of the way, that would give them 104 points. To catch that pace, the Kings would need to go 14-5 in the remaining 20 games (a .737 pace).

Magic Number
32 points, meaning a record of 16-3 (or 15-2-2) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.
 
After the games of 3/6/14

Phoenix remains JUST outside looking in, projecting to 90 points, making the "safe" (that is, non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 91 points, translating to a record of 6-11-1 (a percentage of .361). As of this moment, that also is enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Minnesota (1WC - 99 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 119 pts)
Chicago (3C - 113 pts) at Colorado (2C - 113 pts)

Dallas (2WC - 91 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 120 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 100 pts) at San Jose (2P - 111 pts)

Catching the Sharks
If the Sharks go .500 for the rest of the way, that would give them 105 points. To catch that pace, the Kings would need to go 13-4-1 in the remaining 18 games (a .750 pace).

Magic Number
30 points, meaning a record of 15-3 gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.
 
After the games of 3/9/14

Phoenix again projects to outside looking in, and 88 points, making the "safe" (that is, non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 89 points, translating to a record of 4-12-1 (a percentage of .265). That is still enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific as well.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 120 pts)
Colorado (3C - 111 pts) at Chicago (2C - 114 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 97 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 119 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 101 pts) at San Jose (2P - 112 pts)

Catching the Sharks
If the Sharks go .500 for the rest of the way, that would give them 106 points. To catch that pace, the Kings would need to go 13-4 in the remaining 18 games (a .765 pace).

Magic Number
26 points, meaning a record of 13-4 also gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.
 
As of now 98 points is the only number that absolutely guarantees us a spot, no matter how many divisional rivals go to OT etc...

But if you saw the iterative scenario where we get 97 and don't make it. You'd think 97 is more than enough.
 
Calirose said:
As of now 98 points is the only number that absolutely guarantees us a spot, no matter how many divisional rivals go to OT etc...

But if you saw the iterative scenario where we get 97 and don't make it. You'd think 97 is more than enough.
Click to expand...

By my numbers, 106 is the number that 'absolutely guarantees' the Kings a spot no matter what... or are you taking into account the games that teams have remaining against each other somehow?

ETA: Just to be clear, I'm not trying to be defensive or anything, I'm genuinely interested to learn of more advanced analytical tools!
 
Last edited:
HansH said:
By my numbers, 106 is the number that 'absolutely guarantees' the Kings a spot no matter what... or are you taking into account the games that teams have remaining against each other somehow?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure where that number is coming from, PHX for example only plays VAN or DAL a total of once. I got 106 doing the quick math as well.
 
After the games of 3/10/14

Phoenix still projects 9th, now with 90 points, making the "safe" (that is, non-tiebreaker-dependent) target for the playoffs 91 points, translating to a record of 4-11-1 (a percentage of .281). That is still enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific as well.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 91 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 120 pts)
Colorado (3C - 112 pts) at Chicago (2C - 114 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 97 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 117 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 102 pts) at San Jose (2P - 112 pts)

Catching the Sharks
If the Sharks go .500 for the rest of the way, that would give them 106 points. To catch that pace, the Kings would need to go 12-4 in the remaining 16 games (a .750 pace).

Magic Number
24 points, meaning a record of 12-4 also gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.
 
And another 1 statistically bites the playoff dust.

Edmonton and Buffalo officially eliminated from the playoffs.


Florida, Calgary, and Islanders up next...
 
After the games of 3/16/14

Phoenix still projects to ninth with 90 points, making the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs 91 points, translating to a record of 4-9-1 (a percentage of .321). That is still also enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 121 pts)
Chicago (3C - 111 pts) at Colorado (2C - 112 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 98 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 117 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 99 pts) at San Jose (2P - 115 pts)

Catching the Sharks
If the Sharks go .500 for the rest of the way, that would give them 110 points. To catch that mark, the Kings would need to go 14-0 in the remaining 14 games (a 1.000 pace).

Magic Number
22 points, meaning a record of 11-3 (a .786 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.
 
Four-point game tonight relative to the magic number for the Kings. If they win in regulation, it drops to 18 points, if they lose in regulation, it stays at 22 points.
 
After the games of 3/17/14

Phoenix still projects to ninth, percentage points behind Dallas, with 92 points, making the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs 93 points, translating to a record of 5-7-1 (a percentage of .423). That is still also enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 122 pts)
Chicago (3C - 111 pts) at Colorado (2C - 112 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 96 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 117 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 97 pts) at San Jose (2P - 115 pts)

Catching the Sharks
Not even realistic, I'm dropping this feature.

Magic Number
22 points, meaning a record of 11-2 (an .846 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.
 
HansH said:
After the games of 3/17/14

Phoenix still projects to ninth, percentage points behind Dallas, with 92 points, making the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs 93 points, translating to a record of 5-7-1 (a percentage of .423). That is still also enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 122 pts)
Chicago (3C - 111 pts) at Colorado (2C - 112 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 96 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 117 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 97 pts) at San Jose (2P - 115 pts)

Catching the Sharks
Not even realistic, I'm dropping this feature.

Magic Number
22 points, meaning a record of 11-2 (an .846 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.
Click to expand...

ROFL.

Also, good thing we only need a .423 pace!
 
After the games of 3/17/14

Dallas has fallen to the projected ninth position, on a pace for 90 points, making the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs 91 points, translating to a record of 4-8-1 (a percentage of .346). That is NO LONGER enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Phoenix (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 122 pts)
Chicago (3C - 111 pts) at Colorado (2C - 111 pts)
(Colorado currently wins the ROW tiebreaker, 41-34)

Minnesota (1WC - 97 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 115 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 97 pts) at San Jose (2P - 114 pts)

Magic Number
22 points, meaning a record of 11-2 (an .846 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.
 
After the games of 3/20/14

Dallas remains in the projected ninth position, on a pace for 89 points, making the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs 90 points, translating to a record of 2-8-2 (a percentage of .333). That is NO LONGER enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific. Keeping the third spot would require 94 points, or a record of 4-6-2 (a percentage of .417).

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Phoenix (2WC - 93 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 120 pts)
Colorado (3C - 110 pts) at Chicago (2C - 111 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 97 pts) at San Jose (1P - 114 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 98 pts) at Anaheim (2P - 114 pts)

Magic Number
18 points, meaning a record of 9-3 (a .750 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.
 
Remaining Games:

Florida - W
@Philadelphia - OTL
@Washington - W
@Pittsburgh - L
Winnipeg - W
Minnesota - W
Phoenix - W
@San Jose - L
@Vancouver - W
@Calgary - L
@Edmonton - OTL
_ucks - W
 
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