How many points will it take to make the playoffs - 2013-14 edition

[HansH]

After the games of 3/23/14

Dallas remains in the projected ninth position, on a pace for 90 points, making the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs 91 points, translating to a record of 2-8-1 (a percentage of .227). That is NO LONGER enough to put the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific. Keeping the third spot projects to needing 92 points, or a record of 2-7-2 (a percentage of .273).

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Phoenix (2WC - 91 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 119 pts)
Colorado (3C - 109 pts) at Chicago (2C - 110 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 97 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 114 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 99 pts) at San Jose (2P - 114 pts)
(Anaheim leads San Jose on percentage points, .697 to .694. The current ROW tiebreaker sits at Anaheim 44 - San Jose 36, meaning that Anaheim will clinch the tiebreaker with three ROW)

Magic Number
16 points, meaning a record of 8-3 (a .727 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 3/24/14

Dallas and Phoenix are now tied for 8th/9th, on a pace for 91 points, making the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs 92 points, translating to a record of 1-7-2 (a percentage of .200). That is also enough to project the Kings into the third spot in the Pacific.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Phoenix (2WC - 91 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 119 pts)
Colorado (3C - 109 pts) at Chicago (2C - 110 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 97 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 114 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 99 pts) at San Jose (2P - 113 pts)

Magic Number
13 points, meaning a record of 6-3-1 (a .650 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.

EDITED TO ADD: Actually, 6-4 would also clinch, as long as ALL SIX were ROW. LA leads Phoenix 34-29 in ROW, Phoenix has 10 games left, thus a max ROW of 39 -- meaning 6 ROW clinches that tiebreaker for the Kings.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 3/25/14

Dallas is back to projecting into the outside bubble position, on a pace for 90 points, making the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs 91 points, translating to a record of 0-8-1 (a percentage of .055).

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Phoenix (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 120 pts)
Colorado (3C - 109 pts) at Chicago (2C - 111 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 97 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 114 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 101 pts) at San Jose (2P - 114 pts)
(Anaheim leads in percentage, .697 to .696, and leads 44-37 in ROW)

Magic Number
10 points, meaning a record of 5-4 (a .555 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.

 

[kingsfan]

Anaheim has clinched a playoff spot with 99 points. If we need 10 points that would put us at 100. Why do we need 100 to clinch if Anaheim clinched at 99? Does Dallas own a tie breaker with us but not with Anaheim?

 

[tsanuri]

Anaheim has clinched a playoff spot with 99 points. If we need 10 points that would put us at 100. Why do we need 100 to clinch if Anaheim clinched at 99? Does Dallas own a tie breaker with us but not with Anaheim?

It's not Dallas it's Phoenix. They can get to 100 points if they win every game left. So that's what we need to have them officially eliminated. And in the case of Anaheim they have clinched just a wild card spot as of now they need one more point or Phoenix needs to not get one of the possible points for them to be in the top 3 for the pac.

 

[HansH]

Anaheim has clinched a playoff spot with 99 points. If we need 10 points that would put us at 100. Why do we need 100 to clinch if Anaheim clinched at 99? Does Dallas own a tie breaker with us but not with Anaheim?

More like Anaheim has clinched a tiebreaker with Dallas that the Kings have not yet CLINCHED over them.

Anaheim has 99 points, 44 ROW and 10 games remaining.
The Kings have 90 points, 34 ROW and 9 games remaining (thus Anaheim has already clinched more ROW than the Kings' max).

Dallas (yes, tsanuri, Dallas is the bubble right now) has a max of 99 points, and a max of 41 ROW. So, Anaheim has CLINCHED that tiebreaker. The Kings currently _lead_ Dallas in ROW (34-31), but haven't yet clinched that tiebreaker, so they need 100 points to clinch for certain. 99 points, a clinch requires 8 ROW (which takes them beyond 99 in the first place).

Hope that helps!

 

[HansH]

It's not Dallas it's Phoenix. They can get to 100 points if they win every game left. So that's what we need to have them officially eliminated. And in the case of Anaheim they have clinched just a wild card spot as of now they need one more point or Phoenix needs to not get one of the possible points for them to be in the top 3 for the pac.

It is Dallas, for clinching a spot overall. It is Phoenix for "top three", yes, but Dallas's max is 99. As I explained earlier, Anaheim has clinched the ROW tiebreaker over... well, pretty much everyone (they only haven't clinched that over San Jose, St. Louis, Chicago, and Colorado), so their magic points number ends up being one lower than teams who haven't clinched that first tiebreaker.

Thus, Anaheim can clinch a "top three" spot (as San Jose has already done) with one single point (for 100 total), but for the Kings to clinch a "top three" spot, they need to get 101 points -- with 100, they would need 6 ROW (since they lead Phoenix 34-30 there with nine games each left, and Phoenix has already clinched the 2nd head-to-head tiebreaker, so finishing level there is a loss for the Kings).

 

[HansH]

After the games of 3/27/14

Dallas remains in the outside bubble position, on a pace for 90 points, making the non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs 91 points... which the Kings have already surpassed. To project into a non-wildcard spot, the Kings would need to go 1-7 (a percentage of .125) in the remaining 8 games.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Phoenix (2WC - 93 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 120 pts)
Chicago (3C - 110 pts) at Colorado (2C - 110 pts)
(Colorado leads the percentage .671 to .669, Colorado also leads the ROW tiebreaker 42-37)

Minnesota (1WC - 94 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 115 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 102 pts) at San Jose (2P - 113 pts)

Magic Number
8 points, meaning a record of 4-4 (a .500 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does. If all four of those are ROW, that would also clinch the non-wildcard #3 spot.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 3/29/14

The non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs is 93 points... which the Kings have already surpassed. Their points total projects to give them Pacific #3 already.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 119 pts)
Chicago (3C - 108 pts) at Colorado (2C - 111 pts)
(Dallas leads Phoenix in percentage .561 to .560, Dallas also leads the ROW tiebreaker 33-30)

Minnesota (1WC - 95 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 115 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 103 pts) at San Jose (2P - 111 pts)

Magic Number
5 points, meaning a record of 2-4-1 (a .357 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does -- interestingly enough, that would get them the #3 spot in the Pacific, but not YET enough to clinch them a wildcard.

Clinching Scenarios
The Kings COULD clinch as early as Tuesday, 4/1, IF they win (with a ROW) against the Wild on Monday AND the Coyotes lose to the Jets on Tuesday in regulation -- that would give the Kings 96 points, the 'Yotes a maximum of 96 points, the Kings 37 ROW and the 'Yotes a max of 36 ROW.

But even if both of those games go against the Kings, Wednesday, April 2nd is vital -- Phoenix at Los Angeles. If the Kings win that game in regulation, none of the other six games matter, and none of the 'Yotes' other six games matter -- win that one IN REGULATION, and the Kings clinch the playoffs (and at least the #3 spot), period.

 

[Stupid Sexy Flanders]

Chances are now 91% LA faces SJ in round 1.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

 

[etherialone]

After the games of 3/29/14

The non-tiebreaker-dependent target for the playoffs is 93 points... which the Kings have already surpassed. Their points total projects to give them Pacific #3 already.

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 119 pts)
Chicago (3C - 108 pts) at Colorado (2C - 111 pts)
(Dallas leads Phoenix in percentage .561 to .560, Dallas also leads the ROW tiebreaker 33-30)

Minnesota (1WC - 95 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 115 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 103 pts) at San Jose (2P - 111 pts)

Magic Number
5 points, meaning a record of 2-4-1 (a .357 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does -- interestingly enough, that would get them the #3 spot in the Pacific, but not YET enough to clinch them a wildcard.

Clinching Scenarios
The Kings COULD clinch as early as Tuesday, 4/1, IF they win (with a ROW) against the Wild on Monday AND the Coyotes lose to the Jets on Tuesday in regulation -- that would give the Kings 96 points, the 'Yotes a maximum of 96 points, the Kings 37 ROW and the 'Yotes a max of 36 ROW.

But even if both of those games go against the Kings, Wednesday, April 2nd is vital -- Phoenix at Los Angeles. If the Kings win that game in regulation, none of the other six games matter, and none of the 'Yotes' other six games matter -- win that one IN REGULATION, and the Kings clinch the playoffs (and at least the #3 spot), period.

We are almost at the end of another season of your doing a great and appreciated job of keeping the stat line running on what it will take to make the playoffs. Thank you again for the work.

That said didn't we discuss somewhere in here where we thought the Kings would end up point wise? I remember saying 105 pts give or take and think you said the same thing.

Looks like we are about right or should be when it is all said and done. Time to go to Vegas!

 

[HansH]

After the games of 3/31/14

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 119 pts)
Chicago (3C - 107 pts) at Colorado (2C - 111 pts)
(Dallas leads Phoenix in percentage .561 to .560, Dallas also leads the ROW tiebreaker 33-30)

Minnesota (1WC - 96 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 116 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 101 pts) at San Jose (2P - 111 pts)

Magic Number
5 points, meaning a record of 2-3-1 (a .417 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.

Clinching Scenarios
The Kings can clinch as early as Wednesday, 4/2, if they defeat Phoenix in regulation. If Phoenix loses tonight (in either regulation or OT/SO), then the Kings would clinch tomorrow night with an OT/SO win over them as well.

Anaheim has clinched first-round home ice - the Kings _cannot_ win the regular-season division title. San Jose is 4 points from clinching home ice as well. The Kings might be locked into the #3 spot as early as Thursday night.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 3/31/14

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 93 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 119 pts)
Chicago (3C - 107 pts) at Colorado (2C - 112 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 96 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 116 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 101 pts) at San Jose (2P - 112 pts)

Magic Number
4 points, meaning a record of 2-4 (a .333 pace) gets the Kings into the post-season no matter what any other team does.

Clinching Scenarios
The Kings can clinch as early as tonight, if they defeat Phoenix (whether in regulation, OT, or SO) -- a regulation win gives the Kings 96 points and the Coyotes a max of 95. A shootout/OT win would give the Kings 96 points and the Coyotes a max of 96... but would give the Kings 36 or 37 ROW, and the Coyotes a max of 35 ROW, thus also clinching the post-season for the Kings.

Anaheim has clinched first-round home ice - the Kings _cannot_ win the regular-season division title. San Jose is 2 points from clinching home ice as well. The Kings might be locked into the #3 spot as early as Thursday night.

Anaheim is 9 points away from clinching the Pacific Division regular-season crown.

 

[HansH]

The answer is:

96 points. Done.

 

[tsanuri]

The answer is:

96 points. Done.

The magic number is 96. We still don't know exactly what it would have taken until the end of the season.

 

[MollerManor]

The answer is:

96 points. Done.

WOOO! You did it Hans. Another one in the books. Thanks again for your hard work!

 

[KopitarFAN]

Turn out the lights! Hans, you're the best.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Hans gets to go home early. Thanks for all the work, Hans

 

[HansH]

Thanks everyone! And tsanuri is right -- the real final answer to the thread title won't be known for a bit.

I'll also likely keep up little bits of analysis and the playoff pairings through this last couple of weeks -- I'm an addict, what can I say

 

[HansH]

After the games of 4/2/14

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 93 pts) at x-St. Louis (1C - 119 pts)
x-Chicago (3C - 107 pts) at x-Colorado (2C - 112 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 96 pts) at x-Anaheim (1P - 117 pts)
x-Los Angeles (3P - 102 pts) at x-San Jose (2P - 112 pts)

The Kings can do no better than 2nd in the Pacific.

Anaheim has clinched first-round home ice. They are 7 points away from clinching the Pacific Division regular-season crown.

San Jose is 2 points from clinching home ice as well. Any kind of victory tonight for the Sharks will lock the Kings into the P3 position.

St. Louis and Colorado have both clinched Central Division spots.

St. Louis is 3 points away from clinching home ice in the first round, 8 points away from clinching the Central Division title, 9 points away from clinching the Western Conference title, and 14 points away from clinching the President's Trophy.

Colorado is 10 points away from clinching home ice in the first round.

Chicago is 3 points away from clinching a Central Division (non-wildcard) spot - any kind of win tonight over Minnesota will do the trick.

Minnesota is 7 points away from clinching a wildcard spot, and 3
points away from being out of contention for a non-wildcard spot.

Dallas is 10 points (with at least 2 ROW, or 11 points without 2 ROW) away from clinching a wildcard spot, and 1 points away from being out of contention for a non-wildcard spot.

Phoenix is 10 points (with 2 ROWs unachieved) from playoff elimination.

Nashville is 5 points from playoff elimination.

Vancouver is 5 points (4 with a single ROW lost by them or gotten by Dallas) away from playoff elimination.

Winnipeg is 3 points from playoff elimination (having already lost the ROW tiebreaker to Dallas). They could be eliminated tonight with a win by Dallas over Carolina and any kind of loss by the Jets to the Penguins.

Calgary and Edmonton are already eliminated.

 

[Whiskeypete]

95 at minimum each and every year has always been the standard.

based on this year that 'bar' may have to be raised the way this year has skaken out. just ridiculous the Pacific will have 3 teams with 100 pts or more this season. the Cryotes may hit the old mark of 95 and not qualify this year. looks like Doan will have another reason to cry

 

[tsanuri]

95 at minimum each and every year has always been the standard.

based on this year that 'bar' may have to be raised the way this year has skaken out. just ridiculous the Pacific will have 3 teams with 100 pts or more this season. the Cryotes may hit the old mark of 95 and not qualify this year. looks like Doan will have another reason to cry

The Yotes have to win out the season to get to 95 points. 3 Pacific teams is nice but how about 6 Western conference teams over 100 points. Now that is crazy.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 4/4/14

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 120 pts)
Chicago (3C - 108 pts) at Colorado (2C - 112 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 96 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 115 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 101 pts) at San Jose (2P - 112 pts)

The Kings are LOCKED into the Pacific #3 position and WILL play Pacific #2 without home ice in the first round

All six divisional spots are now taken in the West -- St. Louis, Colorado, Chicago in the Central; Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles in the Pacific.

Anaheim and San Jose have clinched first-round home ice. The Ducks remain 7 points away from clinching the Pacific Division regular-season crown.

The Blues have clinched home ice in the first round (by virtue of locking up the ROW tiebreaker over Chicago), are 6 points away from clinching the Central Division title, 8 points away from clinching the Western Conference title, and 11 points away from clinching the President's Trophy.

Colorado is 7 points away from clinching first-round home ice (they've already locked down the ROW tiebreaker over Chicago).

Minnesota is 5 points away from clinching a wildcard spot, and cannot win a divisional spot.

Dallas is 10 points away from clinching a wildcard spot, and also cannot win a divisional spot.

Phoenix is 10 points from playoff elimination.

Nashville remain 5 points from playoff elimination.

Vancouver is 4 points away from playoff elimination. They MAY be eliminated today if the Canucks lose to the Kings in regulation - even though technically their "tragic number" would remain at 2 points. The Phoenix/Dallas game at the end of the year guarantees that one of those teams gets those two points, removing hope for Vancouver.

Winnipeg, Calgary and Edmonton have all been mathematically eliminated.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 4/5/14

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 93 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 118 pts)
Chicago (3C - 108 pts) at Colorado (2C - 113 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 97 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 115 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 100 pts) at San Jose (2P - 111 pts)

The Kings are LOCKED into the Pacific #3 position and WILL play Pacific #2 without home ice in the first round

All six divisional spots are taken in the West -- St. Louis, Colorado, Chicago in the Central; Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles in the Pacific.

Anaheim and San Jose have clinched first-round home ice. The Ducks are now 5 points away from clinching the Pacific Division regular-season crown.

The Blues have clinched home ice in the first round (by virtue of locking up the ROW tiebreaker over Chicago), are still 6 points away from clinching the Central Division title (pending the 3rd period of the afternoon game that is on as I type this), and 8 points away from clinching the Western Conference title. They no longer control their own destiny for the President's Trophy (If Boston ROWs out their final four games, the PT is theirs).

Colorado is 5 points away from clinching first-round home ice (they've already locked down the ROW tiebreaker over Chicago).

Minnesota is 3 points away from clinching a wildcard spot, and cannot win a divisional spot. They can ALL BUT clinch a spot if they ROW over Winnipeg on Monday night -- they would clinch a ROW tie with Phoenix, the h2h with Phoenix is another tie, which would throw it to goal differential, which right now the Wild lead +1 to -12, but that's still not _technically_ insurmountable. They'll have to wait till at least Tuesday to formally punch their tournament ticket.

Dallas is 8 points away from clinching a wildcard spot, and also cannot win a divisional spot.

Phoenix is 8 points from playoff elimination.

Nashville is now 3 points from playoff elimination.

Vancouver is 2 points away from playoff elimination. They MAY be eliminated today if the Stars beat Florida in any fashion this afternoon.

Winnipeg, Calgary and Edmonton have all been mathematically eliminated.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 4/9/14

Western Conference playoff pairings would be:

Dallas (2WC - 92 pts) at St. Louis (1C - 115 pts)
Chicago (3C - 109 pts) at Colorado (2C - 113 pts)

Minnesota (1WC - 98 pts) at Anaheim (1P - 114 pts)
Los Angeles (3P - 100 pts) at San Jose (2P - 111 pts)

Locked positions
Pacific #3 - Los Angeles
Wildcard #1 - Minnesota

Eliminated
Edmonton
Calgary
Winnipeg
Vancouver
Nashville

Anaheim and San Jose have clinched first-round home ice. Anaheim's magic number to clinch the Pacific Division is 3 points, which they can achieve with any kind of win over San Jose tonight.

The Blues have clinched home ice in the first round, are 5 points away from clinching the Central Division title, and 6 points away from clinching the Western Conference title.

Colorado is 2 points away from clinching first-round home ice, and may get those tonight if Chicago loses in regulation to Montreal.

Dallas and Phoenix are the only contenders for the wildcard #2 spot. Dallas are 4 points away from eliminating Phoenix, which can happen as soon as Thursday if Dallas beats Columbus tonight in any fashion AND Phoenix loses to Nashville in regulation tomorrow night.

In the East, six teams have clinched (Boston, Montreal, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, NY Rangers, Philadelphia). Four teams are chasing the two remaining spots (Detroit, Columbus, Washington, New Jersey).

Detroit is 1 point from clinching, Columbus is 2 points from clinching, Washington and New Jersey are each 2 points away from elimination. Detroit and Columbus could lock down the final two spots tonight.