How good is Rasmus Ristolainen?

[BB88]

Obviously possession stats never tell the whole story, but I think it's an extremely disturbing trend that Ristolainen gets utterly shelled every single night.

It's because their best players are ROR, Risto 21y and 2 rookies that are 19 and 20y, they aren't getting anything from their vets and RR is playing with a 3rd line vets the toughest minutes, in every situation.


He's averaging top10 minutes in the entire league at 21 while playing on a rebuilding team, team that's bottom5 in scoring, 5on5 play, is it a surprise his numbers aren't great?

I can see their top6+ Risto putting up a lot, lot better numbers next year.

 

[Snippit]

He has work to do, but he's looking like the best defenceman out of his class. He's far ahead of Nurse and has the edge on Jones.

Best U22 defenceman outside of Ekblad.

But a #1 right now? No, that's a stretch. #2 or #3 right now, he still needs to work on his D zone coverage. But his offensive game is good, and in spite of his numbers, he has a damn good outlet pass and helps our transition game greatly.

That's just what I see.

Points aren't everything, but he hit 40 points today. I don't expect him to hit it again next year (probably around 30-35), but that's still extremely impressive. He has the same amount of points as Reinhart.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I get why people think that. They look bad. I don't think people realize how much of a negative Josh Gorges (especially on a top pairing) is in terms of possession stats though. He's a really, really big negative.

It's because their best players are ROR, Risto 21y and 2 rookies that are 19 and 20y, they aren't getting anything from their vets and RR is playing with a 3rd line vets the toughest minutes, in every situation.


He's averaging top10 minutes in the entire league at 21 while playing on a rebuilding team, team that's bottom5 in scoring, 5on5 play, is it a surprise his numbers aren't great?

I can see their top6+ Risto putting up a lot, lot better numbers next year.

Look, I totally appreciate that he's not being set up to succeed. His D-partner is atrocious and he plays really hard minutes.

But you have to look at what Seth Jones is doing in Columbus with an equally atrocious team.

There's a difference between "not great" numbers and getting absolutely dominated every night. Ristolainen has a 43.4% score-adjusted Fenwick this year. There aren't words for how TERRIBLE that is. I could understand 47%. 43.4% is unacceptable if you want to call him an elite defenseman, which I have seen many people doing.

 

[Machinehead]

I think he's got a ton of potential but he's currently overrated. His WARRIOR chart looks like something my cat coughed up.

 

[Samsonite23]

Look, I totally appreciate that he's not being set up to succeed. His D-partner is atrocious and he plays really hard minutes.

But you have to look at what Seth Jones is doing in Columbus with an equally atrocious team.

There's a difference between "not great" numbers and getting absolutely dominated every night. Ristolainen has a 43.4% score-adjusted Fenwick this year. There aren't words for how TERRIBLE that is. I could understand 47%. 43.4% is unacceptable if you want to call him an elite defenseman, which I have seen many people doing.

As I said, I completely understand why you'd think that. Those stats are scary, just like you said. I'll say it again, Gorges is THAT bad in the category of possession.

I say this not trying to argue. The stats look bad. You have to watch a lot to not be worried about those kind of stats.

Edit: And if somebody is calling him elite, they're dumb. Has there ever been a 21 yr old defenseman who's elite in the modern era?

Edit again: Ok, nevermind. We just have different definitions of elite.

 

[BB88]

Look, I totally appreciate that he's not being set up to succeed. His D-partner is atrocious and he plays really hard minutes.

But you have to look at what Seth Jones is doing in Columbus with an equally atrocious team.

There's a difference between "not great" numbers and getting absolutely dominated every night. Ristolainen has a 43.4% score-adjusted Fenwick this year. There aren't words for how TERRIBLE that is. I could understand 47%. 43.4% is unacceptable if you want to call him an elite defenseman, which I have seen many people doing.

Murray is definitely not atrocious, he's a damm good young player, and nobody expected Columbus to be where they are, they had forwards but goaltending and defense let them down and they added Jones(D-player) into it, I'm expecting a lot more from them next year.

I don't think anyone has really called Risto elite.
I've missed probably few Buffalo games this year and it's honestly not that suprising, on the 1st half they had 1 forward line working for few games, you can't ask 1 player to carry 4 other players while playing against top talent, only ROR has been the other guy that you could have expected to play against top talent with quality throughout this season.
Getting quality depth will be important for Buffalo, they have the elite/franchise talent but they can't do it all.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Not as good as people think, at least not right now.

 

[Juxtaposer]

As I said, I completely understand why you'd think that. Those stats are scary, just like you said. I'll say it again, Gorges is THAT bad in the category of possession.

I say this not trying to argue. The stats look bad. You have to watch a lot to not be worried about those kind of stats.

Murray is definitely not atrocious, he's a damm good young player, and nobody expected Columbus to be where they are, they had forwards but goaltending and defense let them down and they added Jones(D-player) into it, I'm expecting a lot more from them next year.

I don't think anyone has really called Risto elite.

I've missed probably few Buffalo games this year and it's honestly not that suprising, and you can't ask 1 player to carry 4 other players while playing against top talent, only ROR has been the other guy that you could have expected to play against top talent with quality throughout this season.

Ryan Murray has a 46% CF this season without Seth Jones. He's obviously a much better player than Gorges, but looking at WOWYs doesn't really convince me that Gorges is the main problem, and it's clear that Seth Jones is hugely benefiting Murray's numbers.

I have seen a lot of people call Ristolainen a legitimate #1D, which I take to be elite. In this very thread, he was called the best U22 defenseman.

At the end of the day, a defenseman with a 43% score-adjusted Fenwick is not a top-pairing defenseman. Point blank.

 

[Dogewow]

I think he's got a ton of potential but he's currently overrated. His WARRIOR chart looks like something my cat coughed up.

That warrior chart includes historically bad seasons in addition to him playing over his head as a rookie in 2013. Charts like that can be useful, but also can be detrimental if people aren't really looking at the scope of what it's saying.

I will say he's got potential to be a #1 defenseman in the future, and is definitely a good defenseman right now. His play has tapered off since the beginning of the year, when he was playing like a number one, whether due to lack of defensive help, fatigue, or inexperience. I'd say if you called him a number one right this second, you'd be overrating him a tad. I do think he'll develop into one eventually though. This team needs to get some real talent on the back end so the kid can get some help back there.

 

[BB88]

Ryan Murray has a 46% CF this season without Seth Jones. He's obviously a much better player than Gorges, but looking at WOWYs doesn't really convince me that Gorges is the main problem, and it's clear that Seth Jones is hugely benefiting Murray's numbers.

I have seen a lot of people call Ristolainen a legitimate #1D, which I take to be elite. In this very thread, he was called the best U22 defenseman.

At the end of the day, a defenseman with a 43% score-adjusted Fenwick is not a top-pairing defenseman. Point blank.

The problem again is that during RR's time in Buffalo Buffalo has been one of the worst teams in the league, 5on5, RR also was 18 when he started in the NHL and they don't have quality depth this year, they have 4 guys doing the work and 2 of them are rookies.
Being called the best U22y doesn't mean elite, right now his play and Ekblads are very close and I watch their both games, and he is a #1D for Buffalo, would be for few other teams, and he played like a true #1D for 2-3 months during the season.

If you think of it for a 2nd,
you can play a player on your 1st pk unit,
you can play the same player on your 1st pp unit,(Buffalo is top15 in both categories, RR in 1st units)
a player has the conditioning to play elite minutes, averages top10 in the league,
a player has 40 points on a bottom 5 scoring team,
player who's physical and a strong passer and you call that a 2nd pairing D-player?

 

[Hokinaittii]

I haven't seen many better/more promising d-men in the league at the age of 20 than Ristolainen.

 

[lifeisruff]

Color me skeptical. I see him as Bret Seabrook to Eric Johnson tier. 1D, but only because you don't have a top 10-20 dman on the roster.

 

[Juxtaposer]

The problem again is that during RR's time in Buffalo Buffalo has been one of the worst teams in the league, 5on5, RR also was 18 when he started in the NHL and they don't have quality depth this year, they have 4 guys doing the work and 2 of them are rookies.
Being called the best U22y doesn't mean elite, right now his play and Ekblads are very close and I watch their both games, and he is a #1D for Buffalo, would be for few other teams, and he played like a true #1D for 2-3 months during the season.

If you think of it for a 2nd,
you can play a player on your 1st pk unit,
you can play the same player on your 1st pp unit,(Buffalo is top15 in both categories)
a player has the conditioning to play elite minutes,
a player has 40 points on a bottom 5 scoring team,
player who's physical and a strongpasser and you call that a 2nd pairing D-player, how great is your defensive group?

Look, I'm sorry, but this just isn't really affecting my opinion at all. I haven't made any comment on special teams, so that's fairly irrelevant to my argument. Great conditioning does not make a player great. On scoring, Ristolainen only has 18 5v5 points, which is not particularly impressive given the minutes he plays. Physicality does not make a defenseman good inherently. Neither does being a strong passer.

There are tons of young defensemen who have been in Ristolainen's position. It's not like he's the first.

Risto has tons of potential but right now he is not nearly as good as HF thinks he is. He should not be winning polls against Seth Jones.

I haven't seen many better/more promising d-men in the league at the age of 20 than Ristolainen.

There is a difference between "promising" and "is".

 

[BB88]

Look, I'm sorry, but this just isn't really affecting my opinion at all. I haven't made any comment on special teams, so that's fairly irrelevant to my argument. Great conditioning does not make a player great. On scoring, Ristolainen only has 18 5v5 points, which is not particularly impressive given the minutes he plays. Physicality does not make a defenseman good inherently. Neither does being a strong passer.

There are tons of young defensemen who have been in Ristolainen's position. It's not like he's the first.

Risto has tons of potential but right now he is not nearly as good as HF thinks he is. He should not be winning polls against Seth Jones.
.

Sure if you take everything away from the table that he brings then he's not that good and is a 2nd pairing D-player

You called him a 2nd pairing D-player, and going by that list I'd like to hear how many other 2nd pairing D-players like that there are?

 

[Samsonite23]

Look, I'm sorry, but this just isn't really affecting my opinion at all. I haven't made any comment on special teams, so that's fairly irrelevant to my argument. Great conditioning does not make a player great. On scoring, Ristolainen only has 18 5v5 points, which is not particularly impressive given the minutes he plays. Physicality does not make a defenseman good inherently. Neither does being a strong passer.

There are tons of young defensemen who have been in Ristolainen's position. It's not like he's the first.

Risto has tons of potential but right now he is not nearly as good as HF thinks he is. He should not be winning polls against Seth Jones.



There is a difference between "promising" and "is".

I'm going to have to disagree. I've watched Seth Jones a lot. Risto is significantly better than him.

Idk if you don't watch the Sabres a lot, but you have to realize that they are absolutely horrendous at ES. 18 pts is a ton for a defenseman on that team.

Edit: Just because I've seen a few of your posts and enjoyed them in the past, can you explain to me what you don't like specifically about his game?

 

[Esq]

I got roasted earlier this year for suggesting he wasn't that good. I'll just leave it at that.

Certainly very young and may turn out to be a very good player.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Sure if you take everything away from the table that he brings then he's not that good and is a 2nd pairing D-player

You called him a 2nd pairing D-player, and going by that list I'd like to hear how many other 2nd pairing D-players like that there are?

Fine. At even strength he is a 2nd pairing player.

If you seriously think that "conditioning" is a meaningful argument for why he is a top-pairing defenseman, I dunno what to tell you.

I'm going to have to disagree. I've watched Seth Jones a lot. Risto is significantly better than him.

Idk if you don't watch the Sabres a lot, but you have to realize that they are absolutely horrendous at ES. 18 pts is a ton for a defenseman on that team.

Okay, I'll play.

1. Since Seth Jones was traded to CBJ, they have 61 5v5 goals in 35 games (in 36 games from then to now, Buffalo has 55 5v5 goals for reference). That's 1.74 5v5 GpG. Buffalo has 1.46 5v5 GpG on the season. So the Jackets with Jones score 19% more 5v5 GpG than the Sabres have this season (with Risto, obviously). If you wanna use that logic, then Seth Jones should have 1.19x the 5v5 points that Risto does, yeah? Risto has 0.24 5v5 PPG this season. Seth Jones has 0.26 5v5 PPG this season with the Jackets. That's 8% more than Risto. So pro-rating these numbers, Risto has scored 9% more 5v5 PPG than Seth Jones taking team 5v5 scoring into account. This is almost negligible. Plus, the percentage of Ristolainen's 5v5 points which are secondary assists is not-insignificantly higher than Jones (50% to 62.5%).

2. Risto plays 18.30 minutes per game at 5v5. Jones plays 18.07 minutes per game with the Jackets. Basically the same. So if your using Risto's ice time as an argument for his being a top-pairing defenseman, you must also agree that Seth Jones is a top pairing defenseman. Even though by this argument you would also have to argue that Josh Gorges is a top-pairing defenseman...

3. Linemates... Let's see. Jones usually plays behind the Jenner-Dubinsky-Atkinson line, as per behindthenet. The forward Risto plays the most with? Ryan O'Reilly, Corsi Jesus! The next most common forwards Risto plays with are Gionta (which, yeah, is lol-worthy), Evander Kane, Jack Eichel, and Sam Reinhart. Which, doesn't exactly sound terrible.

So let's check out some WOWYs (keeping in mind they aren't score-adjusted)... Wow, it looks like Ristolainen and O'Reilly together post a 45% CF. Risto without O'Reilly still posts around a 45%, but O'Reilly away from Risto has a 51% CF! Wow!

The same trend follows with the rest of those fowards. They all have hugely superior CF% without Risto than they do with Risto. In fact, pretty much every Sabre posts SIGNIFICANTLY better CF% numbers without Risto.

Now let's look at Josh Gorges... Huh, he posts a significantly better CF% away from Ristolainen too.

So you have to tell me one thing. Do you honestly believe that context, meaning deployment, makes up for the difference between a 43.4% score-adjusted Fenwick (Ristolainen) and a 49.6% score-adjusted Fenwick (Jones with Columbus)? Keep in mind that both play top competition on their respective teams, and both play with similar caliber fowards. Ristolainen has a lower percentage of ofensive zone starts (around 43% to Jones' 48%) and plays with a worse partner (even though the WOWYs don't suggest this is the problem). Do you think that that those two factors alone make up for ~6% score-adjusted Fenwick? The difference between a league average team and a historically bad team? Are zonestarts (which have been shown to not really affect possession as much as we once thought) and an inferior partner (even though Gorges posts better numbers away from Risto and Murray posts worse numbers away from Jones) enough to make up for 6% in possession ability?

And if not, can you explain to me why Risto has such poor possession numbers without blaming it on teammates who all have better numbers away from Risto?


The eye-test is flawed, let's remember that. The eye test got the Kings Jeff Carter for Jack Johnson, and we all know how that ended up.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

ROR and Gorges have easier zone and competition usage away from Risto which make the numbers away from Ristolainen look nicer. That's where you find the discrepancy.

 

[Atas2000]

I was arguing with a friend on how good he is now and what kind of potential he has... I just wanna hear the opinion of others!

Like I think he's a good top 4 d right now and he will be a #1 defenceman in the future.

Any thoughts?

Not as good as Buffalofans think. Not bad at all. Projection: #1 defenceman on a B/B- defence.

 

[Samsonite23]

Fine. At even strength he is a 2nd pairing player.

If you seriously think that "conditioning" is a meaningful argument for why he is a top-pairing defenseman, I dunno what to tell you.



Okay, I'll play.

1. Since Seth Jones was traded to CBJ, they have 61 5v5 goals in 35 games (in 36 games from then to now, Buffalo has 55 5v5 goals for reference). That's 1.74 5v5 GpG. Buffalo has 1.46 5v5 GpG on the season. So the Jackets with Jones score 19% more 5v5 GpG than the Sabres have this season (with Risto, obviously). If you wanna use that logic, then Seth Jones should have 1.19x the 5v5 points that Risto does, yeah? Risto has 0.24 5v5 PPG this season. Seth Jones has 0.26 5v5 PPG this season with the Jackets. That's 8% more than Risto. So pro-rating these numbers, Risto has scored 9% more 5v5 PPG than Seth Jones taking team 5v5 scoring into account. This is almost negligible. Plus, the percentage of Ristolainen's 5v5 points which are secondary assists is not-insignificantly higher than Jones (50% to 62.5%).

2. Risto plays 18.30 minutes per game at 5v5. Jones plays 18.07 minutes per game with the Jackets. Basically the same. So if your using Risto's ice time as an argument for his being a top-pairing defenseman, you must also agree that Seth Jones is a top pairing defenseman. Even though by this argument you would also have to argue that Josh Gorges is a top-pairing defenseman...

3. Linemates... Let's see. Jones usually plays behind the Jenner-Dubinsky-Atkinson line, as per behindthenet. The forward Risto plays the most with? Ryan O'Reilly, Corsi Jesus! The next most common forwards Risto plays with are Gionta (which, yeah, is lol-worthy), Evander Kane, Jack Eichel, and Sam Reinhart. Which, doesn't exactly sound terrible.

So let's check out some WOWYs (keeping in mind they aren't score-adjusted)... Wow, it looks like Ristolainen and O'Reilly together post a 45% CF. Risto without O'Reilly still posts around a 45%, but O'Reilly away from Risto has a 51% CF! Wow!

The same trend follows with the rest of those fowards. They all have hugely superior CF% without Risto than they do with Risto. In fact, pretty much every Sabre posts SIGNIFICANTLY better CF% numbers without Risto.

Now let's look at Josh Gorges... Huh, he posts a significantly better CF% away from Ristolainen too.

So you have to tell me one thing. Do you honestly believe that context, meaning deployment, makes up for the difference between a 43.4% score-adjusted Fenwick (Ristolainen) and a 49.6% score-adjusted Fenwick (Jones with Columbus)? Keep in mind that both play top competition on their respective teams, and both play with similar caliber fowards. Ristolainen has a lower percentage of ofensive zone starts (around 43% to Jones' 48%) and plays with a worse partner (even though the WOWYs don't suggest this is the problem). Do you think that that those two factors alone make up for ~6% score-adjusted Fenwick? The difference between a league average team and a historically bad team? Are zonestarts (which have been shown to not really affect possession as much as we once thought) and an inferior partner (even though Gorges posts better numbers away from Risto and Murray posts worse numbers away from Jones) enough to make up for 6% in possession ability?

And if not, can you explain to me why Risto has such poor possession numbers without blaming it on teammates who all have better numbers away from Risto?


The eye-test is flawed, let's remember that. The eye test got the Kings Jeff Carter for Jack Johnson, and we all know how that ended up.

I've stated already the reasons why Risto-Gorges away from each other (which is barely ever at ES) are the way they are. The Sabres RHD vs. LHD explain that. Watching and knowing Gorges, all I can say is people don't realize how big of an impact he has on possession numbers when playing against the other teams best players. When deployed against worse players, he's not being overmatched. He's also doing it with better partners than Risto has on the left side. When ROR (or any other player) plays away from Risto, he is also playing away from Gorges. That also could means he is not playing against the opponents top line anymore. That's hard to prove though.

All of the things you stated can be explained by his partner, and explains what happens when the two are apart.

I appreciate the response, but I was looking for more of what you see on the ice when it comes to his game. The raw stats don't look good obviously, but watching I see something completely different.

 

[teravaineSAROS]

I guess I'll be back when people stop saying stuff like "corsi" or "warrior stats"

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

I guess I'll be back when people stop saying stuff like "corsi" or "warrior stats"

HF logic: Not allowed to use facts in an argument.

Never change.

 

[Dogewow]

HF logic: Not allowed to use facts in an argument.

Never change.

People incorrectly use analytics and advanced stats on a daily basis here on hf. One glaring example is how people ignore the time frame on warrior stats used in this very thread.

 

[tripleX]

HF logic: Not allowed to use facts in an argument.

Never change.

It's amazing people now call "warrior stats" as facts.

Do you even know what each metric in warrior chart means and how good or bad each metric is? For example, many facts are not taken into account like match up and zone start%.

Also, do you know it's created by a first year college student and the creator even acknowledges there are limitations in his metrics? Some people treat warrior chart like bible when they do not even know what it really is and what it lacks of.

 

[Rebuilt]

I was arguing with a friend on how good he is now and what kind of potential he has... I just wanna hear the opinion of others!

Like I think he's a good top 4 d right now and he will be a #1 defenceman in the future.

Any thoughts?

Hes a future Norris finalist if not winner by time hes 27. Hes a franchise #1 defender. However, I also think Darnell Nurse will follow in his footsteps.