How good is Rasmus Ristolainen?

[TheRocket87]

I get my information from actually watching hockey. Not reading what some guy wrote on the internet.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

Pretty much.

This year: Good #3/Poor Man's #2
Next year: Good/Great #2
2017-2018: Elite



Flyers fans always support Risto. I think you guys were quite disappointed when we snatched him up or else he easily would have been in a Philly jersey.

We're happy with Morin, but having Ristolainen with the current group as a righty would be unreal.

 

[Amadeus]

For a top pairing D-man, I think you need to bring in at least a consistent level of offense as well and D. This year is a step towards that. If he replicates this next year, you can safely label him as a top pairing D already.

 

[Curufinwe]

So you are suggesting that usage alone explains Risto's Dan Girardi-esque numbers? Oooookay then.

See, the problem is that no one is actually explaining why his results are so ****ing terrible outside of saying "his teammates suck" or "he plays hard minutes". Explain to me WHY all the great things tou see when you watch him translate into TERRIBLE shot metrics. Because what I'm seeing are people just saying "his partner sucks but he looks great" and not digging any deeper than that. That doesn't even remotely convince me of anything.

I 100% understand that certain players are boat anchors; my team has employed Brad Stuart and Scott Hannan within the past two years. However, that is NO EXCUSE for 43% score-adjusted Fenwick. If Ristolainen is a genuine top-pairing defrnsrman, he should be able to put up more than ABYSMAL shot metrics, end of story. If he is truly a real top-pairing defenseman, he should be able to FORCE his team to have better results while he's on the ice than 43%. I know for a fact that Josh Gorges is not the single worst defenseman in the entire league by a huge margin (aka about 35% score-adjusted Fenwick true talent), which is what it would take to justify Ristolainen's disgusting numbers.

As I pointed out, Ristolainen's CF is almost identical with and without Josh Gorges this year. You argued that Gorges away from Risto has better numbers because he plays easier minutes away from Risto. I don't know how true that is but I'll take your word. But you did not address why Risto's numbers are the same with and without Gorges. Assuming that Risto plays the same difficult minutes regardless of his partner, why don't his numbers improve without Gorges, considering your argument is that Gorges is the main cause of Risto's terrible shot metrics? I know for a fact that Jake McCabe, for example, is head and shoulders above Gorges.

Blaming Risto's possession on usage alone is lazy. 59 other defensemen play top competition on a nightly basis. Not one of them has numbers worse than Ristolainen, Gorges or no Gorges. Some of them are around Risto's age or younger. Some of them play harder minutes. Some of them play on worse teams. So what's so special about Risto that he alone produces such terrible results and yet gets praised by so many?

If the tools and eye-test do not match up with the metrics, you have Jack Johnson 2.0, Andrew MacDonald 2.0. Brent Seabrook 2.0. So if you can explain to me why, without blaming his teammates, Risto's numbers are so bad, I'm happy to listen. Erik Karlsson, for example, puts up elite possession numbers on an awful team with awful teammates in hard minutes. I'm not expecting elite results from Risto; I'm just expecting better than a 43% score-adjusted Fenwick.

Karlsson is the best offensive dman in the league, and gets 55.7% OZ starts and plays mainly with Methot, Stone, Hoffmann, Ryan and Zibanejad and Turris.

Risto gets 43.5% OZ starts, and plays mainly with Gorges, ROR, Gionta, Kane, Eichel and Reinhart.

I'd like to know who these defensemen are that are younger that Ristolainen and face harder competition on worse teams. I can only think of Adam Larsson, but NJ are better than Buffalo.

 

[tripleX]

I have no clue about advanced stats and I don't find a definition of this, so can someone explain this one to me?

This link explains it. It's similar to Corsi with some adjustments.

There are two major issues in Score-Adjusted Fenwick when using it on individual players instead of team comparison: Offensive Zone Starts and Quality of Competition. There are other stats trying to address them or studies trying to analyze both factors, but the results aren't conclusive/consistent.

 

[frivolousz21]

Look, I totally appreciate that he's not being set up to succeed. His D-partner is atrocious and he plays really hard minutes.

But you have to look at what Seth Jones is doing in Columbus with an equally atrocious team.

There's a difference between "not great" numbers and getting absolutely dominated every night. Ristolainen has a 43.4% score-adjusted Fenwick this year. There aren't words for how TERRIBLE that is. I could understand 47%. 43.4% is unacceptable if you want to call him an elite defenseman, which I have seen many people doing.

So he is:

Jack Johnson
Eric Brewer
Dion Phaneuf

 

[Rebuilt]

I'm sorry, I thought Gorges was the worst defenseman in the NHL, and that's why Risto has some of the worst possession numbers in the league.

Can people stop addressing just parts of my posts? No one has responded to the core of any of my arguments.

Ive been calling posters out on this for 2 years now. All Sabre players are FANTASTIC but the reason why their numbers arent good is because of the mysterious Sabre disease whereas its always the other guys fault why the team sucks so bad but each individual player is awesome.

For example.

The Sabres team is a -24 in goal differential. The Oilers are -40

Yet Eichel is -13 and McDavid is +1 somehow.

Ristolanen is -17 as is ROR -17

Taylor Hall is only -3 Draisaitl -1.

True , Nurse is -12 but the guy is a rookie thrown into a top pairing role, much like Risto was 2 years ago.

When you ask what gives? They will tell you = - doesnt matter or is a 'team stat' or whatever but the fact remains 5 on 5 they are NOT very good. They get a bulk of their goals via the PP where you dont get a +.

Ristolanen is a fine defender whom I think is going to be a franchise D but I would argue that he needs to start being better defensively , as do all the Sabres.

 

[Mattilaus]

Bottom pairing defender. His warrior charts told me so.

 

[Commander Clueless]

 

[sabresfan129103]

He was way better earlier in the season than he is now. I think he got worn down playing as much as he did. We'll see how he handles the load next year.

 

[Yatzhee]

We're happy with Morin, but having Ristolainen with the current group as a righty would be unreal.

You got that right. But no one should sell Philly d core short, you guys have some insane blue line talent.

 

[Samsonite23]

Hes not tho, his numbers actually improve away from RR, and he plays tougher comp

I've explained this to you MULTIPLE TIMES, and you still haven't responded to my post. It's like you're trying to avoid the point. I've explained why this is wrong again and again, do you not read it or what? Maybe because it shows that you don't know what you're talking about.

 

[Aceboogie]

What's worse than people not using stats is people using faulty stats who do not even understand them. People treat WARRIOR chart like the best advanced stats when in fact it has serious flaws, which the creator of WARRIOR chart actually already mentions some of the flaws or so called limitations in his FAQ. But I guess people don't bother to read and just use the stats due to the fancy colors and bars.

What are the metrics listed in WARRIOR chart? The first four are straightforward, TOI%, Goal/60, First A/60, Primary P/60. These are among the most basic stats in hockey. Do people use WARRIOR chart because these four stats are advanced? No, unless people think using fancy colors and bars make these basic stats much more advanced.

What are the remaining metrics in WARRIOR chart? CF60 RelTM, CA60 RelTM, CD60 RelTM, GF60 RelTM, GA60 RelTM, and GD60 RelTM. Do people really feel having 'RelTM' make these stats so advanced? Without 'RelTM', I guess people wouldn't bother with WARRIOR stats unless they are attracted by fancy colors because CF60, CA60, CD60, GF60, GA60, and GD60 are also very basic stats.

So what is 'RelTM'? It's 'Relative to teammates'. The detail of how 'RelTM' metric is calculated is in the FAQ of the WARRIOR/HERO site, I only post the limitations of RelTM from the WARRIOR chart creator himself below. Again, it's not from me, it's from the creator himself.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
The first issue is sample size. Some skaters spend a large % of ice time with a particular linemate. This means that the sample of TOI away from the player of interest for that particular linemate will be susceptible to noise – potentially skewing RelTM measures.

Another issue is the fact that talent distribution is uneven throughout a lineup. For example, a third line center’s most common winger may spend a significant portion of his ice time with the team’s elite first line centre when he is away from the player on interest. This will unfairly penalize that particular third line center’s output simply due to the fact that he plays on a team with an elite first line center.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other flaws in WARRIOR stats include zone start, match up, etc. People using WARRIOR chart are likely not familiar with the detail of advanced stats but like to use these so called advanced stats to show they are better, so let me save you some time before you google whether other factors are important. The answer is it depends on the player, his usage, etc. For example, some player have similar corsi and zone start adjusted corsi in one year and have quite different numbers in another season.

In summary, WARRIOR chart is a good attempt to have different metrics to view players' stats, but it has its own flaw which the creator himself acknowledges already. Unfortunately, people do not understand the underneath flaws of WARRIOR chart but love to use it like it's the final say due to its fancy colors and bars.

Dont get so focused on the Warrior chart. Look at a multitude of other stats. Liek other poster said before dude has a 43% fenwick. No D ever should be called good top pairing with that.

I mean hell, his numbers are eerily similar to Dion Phanuefs in Toronto. Now Ristolianen is MUCH younger than Phanuef was. But for everyone saying hes top pairing NOW, lets ignore age and just compare results. Phanuef was in almost exact same situation, #1 D playing tough minutes with bad partners. Im sure if we dug up posts from 2013 wed see some of the same fans defending Risto as a top pairing golden D calling Phanuef and overrated #3 at best.

But like ive said numerous times, hes only 20 years old and had boat loads of potential and is preforming moderatly well given circumstances, so thats a huge plsu

 

[tripleX]

Dont get so focused on the Warrior chart. Look at a multitude of other stats. Liek other poster said before dude has a 43% fenwick. No D ever should be called good top pairing with that.

You must miss Curufinwe's and my posts regarding score-adjusted fenwick just few posts up. Like WARRIOR stats, it doesn't take two major factors into account, Offensive Zone Starts and Quality of Competition.

The bottom line is that, when using advanced stats or fancy charts, it's better to understand these stats first and know its strength and its weakness instead of blindly taking the numbers like these advanced stats are the final say.

 

[JFG]

You must miss Curufinwe's and my posts regarding score-adjusted fenwick just few posts up. Like WARRIOR stats, it doesn't take two major factors into account, Offensive Zone Starts and Quality of Competition.

The bottom line is that, when using advanced stats or fancy charts, it's better to understand these stats first and know its strength and its weakness instead of blindly taking the numbers like these advanced stats are the final say.

Advanced stats aren't be all end all but do you guys seriously think that they don't say anything in this case?

 

[frivolousz21]

RR has been a minus player every single pro season.

His best showing was a -2 in the ahl.

He was a -28 in SM-Liiga.

And has been a -68 across there NHL season's.

And is now a -19 this season after going -2 versus Pittsburgh tonight.

 

[BB88]

RR has been a minus player every single pro season.

His best showing was a -2 in the ahl.

He was a -28 in SM-Liiga.

And has been a -68 across there NHL season's.

And is now a -19 this season after going -2 versus Pittsburgh tonight.

He was 16y when he played his 1st Liiga season.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

All stats have problems. So does the eye test. Dismissing stats because they aren't perfect is just silly - just like dismissing the eye-test is silly.

Rasmus Ristolainen might be a legitimate #1D, or at least very close to being one, but there aren't any numbers to back-up that claim. This is similar to Edmonton with RNH - both are very good players, but the numbers do not back-up the fans assertions.

Since the numbers don't back-up the fans. . . is that a problem? I think it depends on who is evaluating the player. For me, numbers matter - context is important to understand the numbers, but the amount of context that I can gather doesn't personally persuade me to believe that Ristolainen is a better dman than RNH is a centerman - at this point in his career.

Acting like an opinion based in stats and rationalized with the eye-test/context is somehow less of an opinion than "context" and "he's on a bad team" is, imo, a poor argument for discussion, and I think it's not difficult to follow that reasoning.

As for the Warrior Charts, I choose to use the charts because it is much more efficient that copying stats from a database and then comparing between two players manually - if you're not comfortable with the reality that all stats are less than perfect, then good luck having an intelligent discussion (I'm looking at you, Mr. "I post about players on a hockey forum, but 'I get my information from actually watching hockey. Not reading what some guy wrote on the internet").

I get that context is important, and as a fan of hockey that does not often watch BUF, I would appreciate to hear context that someone like me can't provide. I don't watch BUF but I'm pretty sure I can remember to include the 'context' of "He's on a bad team", and "he has a bad partner".

To be fair, if you'd like to see more of an argument as to why Risto isn't a 1D YET, I can provide you with his other stats - pairings, zone starts, etc.

 

[frivolousz21]

I can't access nhl.com splits page.

Can someone post RR's TOI splits(pk/pp) and 5v5?

As well as buffalos team special teams rank and their 5v5fa

 

[GellMann]

Anyone catch the OT with Buffalo and Pittsburgh? The play he made while the best player in the world was hounding him is one of many like it this season that don't show up on a stat chart but give me hope in his ability to develop into an elite defender. Puck movement up the ice, quick, effective decision-making in the d-zone, sound skating, and flawless execution are the most important qualities of a defender and all were executed at an elite level on that play. He's 21. I expect to see more of that and less of the bad stuff as he grows. He still has years to go to hit his defensive prime. I'm happy with him regardless of what a bunch of people who don't watch Sabres games regularly think.

 

[kirby11]

Right now he would be a #3 on an average team. I think he'll become a solid #2 option next year and then in a couple of years really take on the #1 role. Smart, quick, strong player. Needs to work on d zone coverage a bit but what 21 year old dman doesn't. Plus, he seems extremely determined to improve and doesn't get complacent, much like RoR and Reinhart.
For everyone saying "lol his advanced stats are awful," please give a list of 21 y.o. dmen who excelled under the following circumstances:
Faced top competition almost exclusively, with tons of d zone starts and limited o zone starts.
Played mainly with a defense partner who is at best a 3rd pairing option. Other common partners for risto this year: Mike Weber, Carlo colaiocavo, Jake McCabe.
Was one of the first options for all situations-pp, pk, ot.

Yes, ristolainen still has some growing to do in his game. But I guarantee if you put ekblad or rielly or jones in his skates (aka all situations shut down defenseman responsibilities), they'd look a heck of a lot worse than he has.

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

Interesting stat brought up in last night's game. Ristolainen has the 3rd most shifts of any D man in the NHL.

 

[obey86]

Interesting stat brought up in last night's game. Ristolainen has the 3rd most shifts of any D man in the NHL.

Is that a good thing, bad thing, or neutral?

 

[Gabrielor]

Is that a good thing, bad thing, or neutral?

I think it's equal parts quality of the player, and also a sign of the team's depth at that position.

 

[DapperCam]

Interesting stat brought up in last night's game. Ristolainen has the 3rd most shifts of any D man in the NHL.

Kind of explains why his play has tailed off a bit towards the end of the season.