HockeyProspect.com - 2024 Draft Rankings- June 10th 2024

[My3Sons]

Nice.

Scouts need to drown out the noise. It can be difficult but it's important to trust your own evaluations.

I remember hearing "If the Canadiens don't take Wright the fans will boo the crap out of them. "

Yes, we do. Sometimes you figure it out why u missed and other times players just flat line.

Ratcliffe in Guelph was a big miss. I didn't ding him enough for for his average at best compete. i gave too much credit for some viewings that were the exception rather than the norm.


Boring answer is Celebrini. He is fun to watch.

Off the top of my head, a few others too: Lindstrom, Silayev, Sennecke, Iginla and Parascak

Do the pro scouts ever throw a smoke screen? Are they forthcoming with you about who they really like and why or do you have to read between the lines when speaking with them? If they see something good or bad why share it when they are paid to be loyal to a certain organization? Just curious how those dynamics work. My understanding is that it is difficult to get a good read from NFL scouts when assessing college players for example.

 

[majormajor]

@Mark Edwards

When do we get to hear Brad Allen go on an hour long rant picking apart Levshunov's game?

I've been checking my youtube and other audio sources every five minutes. This is the content I need!

 

[awegrzyn]

we have deficiencies in the mental game

lol, people somehow made him most underrated in the first round. Whoever gets him will be a winner. He just needs time.

 

[Mark Edwards]

Do the pro scouts ever throw a smoke screen? Are they forthcoming with you about who they really like and why or do you have to read between the lines when speaking with them? If they see something good or bad why share it when they are paid to be loyal to a certain organization? Just curious how those dynamics work. My understanding is that it is difficult to get a good read from NFL scouts when assessing college players for example.

When I first started meeting scouts many years ago I did wonder if they were going to blow smoke up my butt. It hasn't really happened. I can remember one time over a decade ago where I thought a scout might have told me false info. He is no longer in the NHL.

The bottom line is I have built up many years of trust without ever leaking anything. If I ever were to screw one of them I would basically be done in scouting circles.

Scouts can only talk to the other scouts on their staff so they enjoy getting another opinion from outside their team (mine). I know so many scouts, so they know it would be next to impossible to figure out a quote as an example. Made me laugh once...one Director of Scouting who always buys the Black Book himself texted me one of the quotes and said "this has to be ( named a scout on his staff)" (he knew I spoke to several of his scouts and had no problem with it BTW) - I was happy to quickly reply and tell him "Nope" - It was in fact a scout from another team.

Some scouts are more cautious than others, much of that is based on who their boss is. I have scouts that barely come near me at games but call me weekly. Other scouts don't care at all and we share rides etc... It depends on their boss and I obviously don't want to get them in any trouble.

Another reason they talk to me is that knowledge is power. Scouts know that I'm another good source for information. I spoke to a scout late last season and told him Ritchie had played hurt all year. He had no idea.

I just told a scout after the recent combine about some info that he didn't know. They obviously give me important info as well. It's almost like a partnership of trading info. Nobody wants to look bad.

I've become very close friends with 4 or 5 scouts too. We have met each others families etc..
It's funny, one of the scouts I've been buddies with for years is actually one that we barely talk hockey at all anymore.

I could go on forever about this stuff because their are so many scouts and so many different approaches. Some scouts would be shocked who I talk to. They would never guess that some scouts that call me actually call me because threy have never seen me near them in a rink.

I've had owners call and interview me before signing me to a consultant deal, I've had current and former players call me and I need to ask who the hell gave them my cell ?? lol An NHL play by play guy called me once and I was just about to go through security at the airport. He had a buddy who had a kid in the draft and wanted the straight skinny. I had to call him back after I cleared security. Some interesting stories over the years.

One of my fave parts of scouting are the stories. Quite a few former players scout and I've heard some very entertaining stories over the years. I consider myself very lucky.

@Mark Edwards

When do we get to hear Brad Allen go on an hour long rant picking apart Levshunov's game?

I've been checking my youtube and other audio sources every five minutes. This is the content I need!

lol

Funny you ask, Brad texted me last night and I called Jerome today. They recorded a Goalie podcast (video for youtube) - I'm not going to put it on youtube until Monday though. Brad told me it was 3 hours long ( to piss me off because I constantly joke with him that he never shuts up) but Jerome told me today that it's ONLY 2.5 hours or something. lol

They also want to do a top 32 ranking video that I might jump into as well. ( I don't think they want me)

We plan to record a Q & A video again this year. Jerome is taking a vacation soon so we'll need to record sooner than I had planned. hope we can make it work.

The plan is to do more video next year. Brad and Jerome like doing vids together so I think they might try to put something together next fall. I'll try to make it a bigger priority and record my own as well.

In general, we plan to offer more FREE content next year. We still need people to support us though or HP will die an untimely death. Gas and hotels are not getting any cheaper. We'll see how it works out.

So long winded answer ( I feel like Brad) you will see Brad on youtube soon and I'll predict he does 80% or more of the talking. lol

If we ever get over 1000 youtube subs and can monetize we would probably do some live streams.

and Florida just won.

 

[Raskolnikow]

Mark and his crew did an amazing job again. They put in a lot of work and IMO they are the best at blocking outside noise while forming their opinions. What you read is what they genuinely think about the players they scout. I also like that they dive deep to explain why they are higher or lower on certain players than the consensus. Sure they have some misses (I remember them being really high on Tristen Robins and Aleksi Heimosalmi), but more often than not they nail it. They were the only source in the public sphere who had Matthew Knies really high in his draft year (13th). Their aggressive ranking of Easton Cowan in last year’s book aged well, too.

For this edition of the Black Book I have two questions for the HP guys. First of all I get that you have some concerns with Catton, but what surprised me was your hockey sense rating of just 6 for him. I see that he sometimes took low procentage shots or was throwing hope passes to the slot, but in general I found his vision and imagination on the ice fantastic. The puck follows him around and he makes plays all over the ice, improving the condition of the puck and putting his teammates in favorable positions. So for me his mental mistakes were more a product of having to do it all for his team, playing huge minutes every game while being the focal point of the opponent’s defense. Sometimes late in games fatigue set in for him. So to make a long story short: How did you arrive at the 6 grade and was it an intense debate with your scouts?

My second question relates to Matvei Gridin. When comparing the Eliteprospects guide (which is really awesome, too) to yours I recognized that you come to polar opposite conclusions with this player. While they see his potential more as a hard-working bottom line player in the NHL you guys see immense boom potential with him but question his work ethic and compete level. How tough was it for you to find the right spot in your rankings with him, considering that you value compete level a lot? Maybe an EP writer can chime in, too, to explain why they have Gridin so much lower at their ranking. Thank you!

 

[NotProkofievian]

I don't know how anyone could see Gridin as a hard working bottom line player. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me, I agree more with Mark and friends' take.

 

[Kipper933]

I don't know how anyone could see Gridin as a hard working bottom line player. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me, I agree more with Mark and friends' take.

That's a bizarre take (by EP), Gridin is one of the more talented forwards in a draft lacking skilled forwards. His improved play away from the puck this season is a great sign for an NHL future, but to view that as his potential is as a bottom line forward is out to lunch.

 

[Mark Edwards]

Mark and his crew did an amazing job again. They put in a lot of work and IMO they are the best at blocking outside noise while forming their opinions. What you read is what they genuinely think about the players they scout. I also like that they dive deep to explain why they are higher or lower on certain players than the consensus. Sure they have some misses (I remember them being really high on Tristen Robins and Aleksi Heimosalmi), but more often than not they nail it. They were the only source in the public sphere who had Matthew Knies really high in his draft year (13th). Their aggressive ranking of Easton Cowan in last year’s book aged well, too.

For this edition of the Black Book I have two questions for the HP guys. First of all I get that you have some concerns with Catton, but what surprised me was your hockey sense rating of just 6 for him. I see that he sometimes took low procentage shots or was throwing hope passes to the slot, but in general I found his vision and imagination on the ice fantastic. The puck follows him around and he makes plays all over the ice, improving the condition of the puck and putting his teammates in favorable positions. So for me his mental mistakes were more a product of having to do it all for his team, playing huge minutes every game while being the focal point of the opponent’s defense. Sometimes late in games fatigue set in for him. So to make a long story short: How did you arrive at the 6 grade and was it an intense debate with your scouts?

My second question relates to Matvei Gridin. When comparing the Eliteprospects guide (which is really awesome, too) to yours I recognized that you come to polar opposite conclusions with this player. While they see his potential more as a hard-working bottom line player in the NHL you guys see immense boom potential with him but question his work ethic and compete level. How tough was it for you to find the right spot in your rankings with him, considering that you value compete level a lot? Maybe an EP writer can chime in, too, to explain why they have Gridin so much lower at their ranking. Thank you!

Thanks for the kind words and never give up on Robbins! lol

I'll add the questions to our Q & A vid
.
As for asking EP why they see him as they do - I think you should start another thread to ask them.

 

[canary]

Hi Coach Mark (Spitfires)

Couple questions on some Russian guys:

What's your outlook in Chernyshov? Seems like he's got everything you'd want in a player of his profile. Seems like a realistic projection for him is middle-6, maybe a tweener if he can find his offensive game?

Why does Artamonov fall out of the top 32 for you? He's a guy that seems ranked all over the map. KHL statistics seem decent for someone of his age. Not sure if it's due to his size, boom-bust potential, or another area of his game. Thanks.

 

[My3Sons]

When I first started meeting scouts many years ago I did wonder if they were going to blow smoke up my butt. It hasn't really happened. I can remember one time over a decade ago where I thought a scout might have told me false info. He is no longer in the NHL.

The bottom line is I have built up many years of trust without ever leaking anything. If I ever were to screw one of them I would basically be done in scouting circles.

Scouts can only talk to the other scouts on their staff so they enjoy getting another opinion from outside their team (mine). I know so many scouts, so they know it would be next to impossible to figure out a quote as an example. Made me laugh once...one Director of Scouting who always buys the Black Book himself texted me one of the quotes and said "this has to be ( named a scout on his staff)" (he knew I spoke to several of his scouts and had no problem with it BTW) - I was happy to quickly reply and tell him "Nope" - It was in fact a scout from another team.

Some scouts are more cautious than others, much of that is based on who their boss is. I have scouts that barely come near me at games but call me weekly. Other scouts don't care at all and we share rides etc... It depends on their boss and I obviously don't want to get them in any trouble.

Another reason they talk to me is that knowledge is power. Scouts know that I'm another good source for information. I spoke to a scout late last season and told him Ritchie had played hurt all year. He had no idea.

I just told a scout after the recent combine about some info that he didn't know. They obviously give me important info as well. It's almost like a partnership of trading info. Nobody wants to look bad.

I've become very close friends with 4 or 5 scouts too. We have met each others families etc..
It's funny, one of the scouts I've been buddies with for years is actually one that we barely talk hockey at all anymore.

I could go on forever about this stuff because their are so many scouts and so many different approaches. Some scouts would be shocked who I talk to. They would never guess that some scouts that call me actually call me because threy have never seen me near them in a rink.

I've had owners call and interview me before signing me to a consultant deal, I've had current and former players call me and I need to ask who the hell gave them my cell ?? lol An NHL play by play guy called me once and I was just about to go through security at the airport. He had a buddy who had a kid in the draft and wanted the straight skinny. I had to call him back after I cleared security. Some interesting stories over the years.

One of my fave parts of scouting are the stories. Quite a few former players scout and I've heard some very entertaining stories over the years. I consider myself very lucky.



lol

Funny you ask, Brad texted me last night and I called Jerome today. They recorded a Goalie podcast (video for youtube) - I'm not going to put it on youtube until Monday though. Brad told me it was 3 hours long ( to piss me off because I constantly joke with him that he never shuts up) but Jerome told me today that it's ONLY 2.5 hours or something. lol

They also want to do a top 32 ranking video that I might jump into as well. ( I don't think they want me)

We plan to record a Q & A video again this year. Jerome is taking a vacation soon so we'll need to record sooner than I had planned. hope we can make it work.

The plan is to do more video next year. Brad and Jerome like doing vids together so I think they might try to put something together next fall. I'll try to make it a bigger priority and record my own as well.

In general, we plan to offer more FREE content next year. We still need people to support us though or HP will die an untimely death. Gas and hotels are not getting any cheaper. We'll see how it works out.

So long winded answer ( I feel like Brad) you will see Brad on youtube soon and I'll predict he does 80% or more of the talking. lol

If we ever get over 1000 youtube subs and can monetize we would probably do some live streams.

and Florida just won.

Thank so much for those great insights. The story behind the story. Great context.

 

[Mark Edwards]

Hi Coach Mark (Spitfires)

Couple questions on some Russian guys:

What's your outlook in Chernyshov? Seems like he's got everything you'd want in a player of his profile. Seems like a realistic projection for him is middle-6, maybe a tweener if he can find his offensive game?

Why does Artamonov fall out of the top 32 for you? He's a guy that seems ranked all over the map. KHL statistics seem decent for someone of his age. Not sure if it's due to his size, boom-bust potential, or another area of his game. Thanks.

So I'm assuming I coached u. Shoot me a private message and let me know who u are? Cheers.

Chernyshov has no huge weakness. When u have a big kid who plays a power game and who also has skill and is a great competitor it obviously creates an attractive package. He is one of Brad's fave players. We'll talk about both in our youtube upcoming video.

FWIW, Artamonov didn't fall too far out of the top 32.

 

[emptyNedder]

Mark. How much does your team use analytics?

I have a model that tries to identify under-valued D prospects. Through roughly five years (I continually tweak it, and would say it has performed well the past 3) I feel it does as well or better than the scouting services.

My thought is that for all but the top players (say 50) even a service like yours probably only gets 4-5 viewings. Whereas an analytic model takes into account every game.

 

[Scintillating10]

2024 NHL Draft Rankings - HockeyProspect.com

HockeyProspect.com has produced NHL Draft Rankings for eligible draft prospects for the NHL Draft since 2004.

hockeyprospect.com

Top 10

1: Celebrini
2: Lindstrom
3: Buium
4: Demidov
5: Silayev
6: Sennecke
7: Iginla
8: Dickinson
9: Perekh
10: Levshunov

I can't see Levshunov going 10. I usually Bob McKenzie's mostly. Has Hockey News released their draft magazine yet?

 

[Castle8130]

@MarkEdwardsHP is the man. Thank you for posting such great content on HF! I think I speak for all of us to say we really appreciate it

 

[Peasy]

I can't see Levshunov going 10. I usually Bob McKenzie's mostly. Has Hockey News released their draft magazine yet?

This isnt a mock draft...

 

[JeromeHP]

I can't see Levshunov going 10. I usually Bob McKenzie's mostly. Has Hockey News released their draft magazine yet?

 

[Mark Edwards]

Mark. How much does your team use analytics?

I have a model that tries to identify under-valued D prospects. Through roughly five years (I continually tweak it, and would say it has performed well the past 3) I feel it does as well or better than the scouting services.

My thought is that for all but the top players (say 50) even a service like yours probably only gets 4-5 viewings. Whereas an analytic model takes into account every game.

We have always used them but scouting is the bulk of our evals.

We also use a video service that allows us to watch only a players shifts. This can allow for many extra viewings in just hours. I have also seen some players in person as many as 20 times in person in their draft season. it obviously depends on location.

I can't see Levshunov going 10. I usually Bob McKenzie's mostly. Has Hockey News released their draft magazine yet?

We are actually seeing a bit less of this lately. Our "This is not a mock draft" tweets are making some headway. lol

@MarkEdwardsHP is the man. Thank you for posting such great content on HF! I think I speak for all of us to say we really appreciate it

I enjoy interacting with other people who are passionate about prospects/scouting/the draft. Glad you are enjoying it.

This isnt a mock draft...

Thanks for getting that quick reply out.

 

[Scintillating10]

We are actually seeing a bit less of this lately. Our "This is not a mock draft" tweets are making some headway. lol

Rankings whatever. Bob McKenzie doing Hockey News rankings is quite the tradition. Like for 40 years

 

[User1996]

I actually really generally agree with these rankings. After months of catching criticism on the Flames board about opinions of Levshunov, Buium, Yakemchuk, and Freij, it’s nice to have some form of validation from much more knowledgeable people. The consensus rankings and reports seem to spread like wildfire among people who don’t really watch.

The backend of the first I’d have some guys that aren’t on here (Stiga, Pettersson, etc.), but at that point there’s so much variance anyways.

After awhile you start to doubt your own evaluations a bit.

Always been a massive hockey nerd, coach, and played at a decent level growing up, and always enjoyed the draft. But this year because being off of work for surgery I’ve watched so much hockey and got much more in depth with this class than ever before. Will have to make this a yearly thing, I’m thinking.

 

[hizzoner]

I have been thumbing through the Black Book and very much enjoying it as usual. I am looking hard for a decent sized forward, above average skating with at least average skills and outstanding compete--if not available then trade!

 

[wetcoast]

Categorically similar players, right? Guys that carry it well, they have 1 on 1 hands in space, but again here - not amazing finishers, not great vision...so you have to be cautious about how it translates. Hage was really good down the stretch on, effectively, a one-line team. He had a tough summer, to say the least. He deserves credit for what he was able to do in the second half of the year, no question.

So you have a player who can gain the zone - that's a huge plus. I say it in the book all the time: A player that can cross multiple lines with the puck is worth their weight in gold. But that's only part of the equation. What's the conversion of those zone entries look like? What do they become? And what's the process behind it? That's where Hage's game takes some critical damage for us.

They're fairly close together on the final list.

This makes sense and I was thinking about this is my limited viewing of Broberg in these playoffs as he has the ability to gain the zone from his zone but after that he just doesn't process the game well enough to be as good as he looks with his skating.

I haven't watched enough of conelly to say if he will have the same problems but for me this type of player is a huge red flag for projecting to the NHL level as hockey sense, or processing skills, can't really be improved upon.

Players either have it or they don't.

 

[UnSandvich]

I have been thumbing through the Black Book and very much enjoying it as usual. I am looking hard for a decent sized forward, above average skating with at least average skills and outstanding compete--if not available then trade!

Sounds like you could end up being a Yegor Surin fan then

 

[JeromeHP]

Our goalie podcast is up on youtube!

 

[LGB]

I see you guys are still fairly high on Adam Jiricek. He's a player I'd definitely consider for the Blues at 16. With such an unfortunate year for him do you still lean heavily on his D-1 performance? Also where do you think he should be playing next year?

 

[Frk It]

@Mark Edwards Did you guys forget to include the profile/write-up for Brandsegg-Nygard in the print verison?

I just got my copy today and opened it up and it appears all the players are listed alphabetically by last name and mine goes right from Boisvert to Brauti. I looked in the N's for him as well but didn't see him there.

Any idea if this was an omission on your end or if I'm just losing my mind?

(If I am right, if you could send me the write-up and quotes I would appreciate it.. lol)