HockeyProspect.com - 2024 Draft Rankings- June 10th 2024

[FinnBear]

100% my choice, the original owner Johan is a friend. We had a conversation a few years back.

Thanks

I only know one team scout who has any real time for him. He liked him early (like the 2nd ) but who knows.

All the other scouts I spoke to saw him like me. Athlete on skates with no hockey sense. I will say he played a bit better late in the year.

Thanks for supporting us.

Not many solid details yet but what I can tell you is writeups will be much shorter and the price will reflect that.

Glad you got it sorted out.

Appreciate it.

We like that fit, seems everywhere I turn guys are telling me Levshunov or Demidov though.

Woked on the print this morning. Amazon is a disaster, they are accepting the cover but they make u preview it. I gave up after 45 minutes of the "please wait updating" message. I'll dig in again now.

Actual book file accepted no problem. If i get the cover disaster figured out it should be available in a few days.

Excellent - thank you. I will order it as soon as it is available.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

What's the rationale for Connelly being out of the first round?

 

[Michael Farkas]

What's the rationale for Connelly being out of the first round?

He's a tricky one just focusing with the on-ice. There's a few ways this can go, of course...on one hand, you have probably the best 1-on-1 player in the USHL. But what's really transferable about his game as it stands? He's not a terrific shooter/finisher, he lacks vision and playmaking variance/creativity, and we have deficiencies in the mental game that are impossible to ignore.

This is one of those players that if you go by junior accomplishment and highlights, he looks like a top 10 player. And that's not lost on me or our team. But the ultimate goal is projecting what this player can likely do for an NHL team in the future, and we're a little skeptical about that really is. To borrow an American football term, "yeah, he's good...between the 20's".

So, we worry about the scalability of his impact on the pro level and we worry about the profound lack of "B" game for him to fall back on. So, you put him in a spot where it's either unreal upside value for us or you let someone else deal with him. We're very comfortable with that.

 

[UnSandvich]

Y'all are definitely my go-to for prospect stuff, glad i saw the BB was released

 

[Rabid Ranger]

He's a tricky one just focusing with the on-ice. There's a few ways this can go, of course...on one hand, you have probably the best 1-on-1 player in the USHL. But what's really transferable about his game as it stands? He's not a terrific shooter/finisher, he lacks vision and playmaking variance/creativity, and we have deficiencies in the mental game that are impossible to ignore.

This is one of those players that if you go by junior accomplishment and highlights, he looks like a top 10 player. And that's not lost on me or our team. But the ultimate goal is projecting what this player can likely do for an NHL team in the future, and we're a little skeptical about that really is. To borrow an American football term, "yeah, he's good...between the 20's".

So, we worry about the scalability of his impact on the pro level and we worry about the profound lack of "B" game for him to fall back on. So, you put him in a spot where it's either unreal upside value for us or you let someone else deal with him. We're very comfortable with that.

....he's a great skater? He has a projectable frame? He is an unbelievable one on one player? He has a lot of creativity? He's a very good passer? He's a capable scorer in tight? I don't know, I'm not sure your.buzzwords have much scalability.

 

[Ducati Boy]

He's a tricky one just focusing with the on-ice. There's a few ways this can go, of course...on one hand, you have probably the best 1-on-1 player in the USHL. But what's really transferable about his game as it stands? He's not a terrific shooter/finisher, he lacks vision and playmaking variance/creativity, and we have deficiencies in the mental game that are impossible to ignore.

This is one of those players that if you go by junior accomplishment and highlights, he looks like a top 10 player. And that's not lost on me or our team. But the ultimate goal is projecting what this player can likely do for an NHL team in the future, and we're a little skeptical about that really is. To borrow an American football term, "yeah, he's good...between the 20's".

So, we worry about the scalability of his impact on the pro level and we worry about the profound lack of "B" game for him to fall back on. So, you put him in a spot where it's either unreal upside value for us or you let someone else deal with him. We're very comfortable with that.

This was a well-written and informative response to the question. Thank you.

As an aside, courtesy is in short supply these days.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

....he's a great skater? He has a projectable frame? He is an unbelievable one on one player? He has a lot of creativity? He's a very good passer? He's a capable scorer in tight? I don't know, I'm not sure your.buzzwords have much scalability.

I think you’re overstating some of that. I don’t think he’s a very good passer or very creative. I wouldn’t have him outside of the first round, but I think a lot of the criticisms voiced are valid and will be things he has to overcome.

I think he’s going to go in the first round, but you can’t convince me he’s a lock to be more than like a Rasmus Kupari. Connelly may just be a guy who plays only 100 NHL games and isn’t able to be an effective NHL player.

People say he’s got such great upside, and I’m not sure about that. If he was all these things, why isn’t he talked about for the top 10? I don’t think the off ice stuff is even looked at as such a big factor.

 

[Frk It]

He's a tricky one just focusing with the on-ice. There's a few ways this can go, of course...on one hand, you have probably the best 1-on-1 player in the USHL. But what's really transferable about his game as it stands? He's not a terrific shooter/finisher, he lacks vision and playmaking variance/creativity, and we have deficiencies in the mental game that are impossible to ignore.

This is one of those players that if you go by junior accomplishment and highlights, he looks like a top 10 player. And that's not lost on me or our team. But the ultimate goal is projecting what this player can likely do for an NHL team in the future, and we're a little skeptical about that really is. To borrow an American football term, "yeah, he's good...between the 20's".

So, we worry about the scalability of his impact on the pro level and we worry about the profound lack of "B" game for him to fall back on. So, you put him in a spot where it's either unreal upside value for us or you let someone else deal with him. We're very comfortable with that.

What about Hage? He was fantastic from January on.

 

[Michael Farkas]

What about Hage? He was fantastic from January on.

Categorically similar players, right? Guys that carry it well, they have 1 on 1 hands in space, but again here - not amazing finishers, not great vision...so you have to be cautious about how it translates. Hage was really good down the stretch on, effectively, a one-line team. He had a tough summer, to say the least. He deserves credit for what he was able to do in the second half of the year, no question.

So you have a player who can gain the zone - that's a huge plus. I say it in the book all the time: A player that can cross multiple lines with the puck is worth their weight in gold. But that's only part of the equation. What's the conversion of those zone entries look like? What do they become? And what's the process behind it? That's where Hage's game takes some critical damage for us.

They're fairly close together on the final list.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

There is a quote in the NHL Draft Black Book where one NHL scout said: "If he (Sennecke) checks out for off ice stuff, he will be my top ranked player from the OHL." What is this off ice stuff? I don't remember hearing about it earlier.

 

[Mark Edwards]

State it every year, but by far my favorite from all the scouting services. Well worth the purchase.

@M. Edwards - How do you see Lindstrom to say a C. Gauthier or recent other top rated Power-Forwards?

Thanks

What's the rationale for Connelly being out of the first round?

Mike did a good job but I'll add this to our question list for our YouTube video.

Y'all are definitely my go-to for prospect stuff, glad i saw the BB was released

Thanks for supporting us.

There is a quote in the NHL Draft Black Book where one NHL scout said: "If he (Sennecke) checks out for off ice stuff, he will be my top ranked player from the OHL." What is this off ice stuff? I don't remember hearing about it earlier.

I don't like getting into the "off ice" stuff too much because on occasion it's just 'talk' all year long. There are different levels of what is known and what is fact on players each year. I'm not going to start spreading something around that isn't known as fact. I'll put it this way, I've done my best over the years to check on anything I hear on any players and we ranked Sennecke 6th. That scout was taking about still doing his due diligence on the player. He didn't have real concerns but it's his ass if he doesn't check and something goes bad.

We have dropped players drastically in the past.

If you see a talented player and I have a team scout saying "Not on my list" it usually gives reason for Spidey senses to be activated.

I tell our guys to imagine their own names on the players jersey as they are watching them next season. Is the player going to keep you up at night or will you sleep easy? Remember that we try to do our list as if we are on the draft floor and will have to live with the picks.

I see and talk to these team scouts all the time. I don't just throw crap at the wall. I want to keep their respect so I try to rank players as if I'm in their situation. If I knowingly rank a problem kid at 6th overall it pisses them off because they would never do it in the real world.

It pisses off team scouts when they see lists on twitter with people having done virtually no work and have no clue about players but they jumble up the names and throw it out there. Then they try to comment on a player and they literally have him backwards. Bad skater as great skater, lazy player as high compete etc...

 

[simonedvinsson]

It pisses off team scouts when they see lists on twitter with people having done virtually no work and have no clue about players but they jumble up the names and throw it out there. Then they try to comment on a player and they literally have him backwards. Bad skater as great skater, lazy player as high compete etc...

Why do team scouts care what twitter folks (HFers, Youtubers, etc.) say? Do these things come back to them in any meaningful way, or are they just annoyed with the arrogance of some of the amateur scouts?

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Thanks

Mike did a good job but I'll add this to our question list for our YouTube video.

Thanks for supporting us.

I don't like getting into the "off ice" stuff too much because on occasion it's just 'talk' all year long. There are different levels of what is known and what is fact on players each year. I'm not going to start spreading something around that isn't known as fact. I'll put it this way, I've done my best over the years to check on anything I hear on any players and we ranked Sennecke 6th. That scout was taking about still doing his due diligence on the player. He didn't have real concerns but it's his ass if he doesn't check and something goes bad.

We have dropped players drastically in the past.

If you see a talented player and I have a team scout saying "Not on my list" it usually gives reason for Spidey senses to be activated.

I tell our guys to imagine their own names on the players jersey as they are watching them next season. Is the player going to keep you up at night or will you sleep easy? Remember that we try to do our list as if we are on the draft floor and will have to live with the picks.

I see and talk to these team scouts all the time. I don't just throw crap at the wall. I want to keep their respect so I try to rank players as if I'm in their situation. If I knowingly rank a problem kid at 6th overall it pisses them off because they would never do it in the real world.

It pisses off team scouts when they see lists on twitter with people having done virtually no work and have no clue about players but they jumble up the names and throw it out there. Then they try to comment on a player and they literally have him backwards. Bad skater as great skater, lazy player as high compete etc...

Thanks for the answer. I really like your Hockeyprospects.com rankings note where you describe how you want your scouts to rank players as if they are on a contract with an NHL team. Great job as always.

 

[Mark Edwards]

Print version is now available.

Also, not sure if people saw the coupon code for the PDF version - bbhf10

 

[Mark Edwards]

Why do team scouts care what twitter folks (HFers, Youtubers, etc.) say? Do these things come back to them in any meaningful way, or are they just annoyed with the arrogance of some of the amateur scouts?

A few reasons but in general because they work hard and then they see Joe twitter guy just throw up a list without ever seeing half the players play a shift. NHL Scouts lists are private but the twitter lists start getting regurgitated and taking on a life of their own. So Team scouts have a guy as a 5th rounder and Twitter scout has him 15th overall. Next thing you know 5-10 or more other 'media' scouts copy the twitter scout and the player decides he is heading to the draft because he's going in the first round.

An agent was venting to me about about this a few months ago. Last year parents of his client saw a final list and he shot way up a media guys list. They decided to attend the draft. It didn't go well.

Anyone can miss on an evaluation, we do and team scouts do. What the team scouts don't like are the people that don't do the actual scouting and still make lists.

I did a guest hit on a radio show years ago. The co-host waited until I was off the air and then said..."Mark's a nice guy and everything but no way is Maatta is going in the 20's."

We had him ranked 22nd - check where he got selected. That was just a media guy checking a crapload of lists and seeing Maatta was top 10 on all of them so I didn't know what I was talking about. We ranked him where our evaluation took us. Misha Donskov (now a Dallas assistant) was on the London bench that year and did everything in his power to tell me that Maatta was a great kid etc... I stuck to my evaluation (and our other scouts) based on a ton of in person viewings. If we were wrong, it wasn't going to be wrong by following all the other rankings.

 

[Ace]

My print version arrives on Friday. Can’t wait.

 

[Peasy]

A few reasons but in general because they work hard and then they see Joe twitter guy just throw up a list without ever seeing half the players play a shift. NHL Scouts lists are private but the twitter lists start getting regurgitated and taking on a life of their own. So Team scouts have a guy as a 5th rounder and Twitter scout has him 15th overall. Next thing you know 5-10 or more other 'media' scouts copy the twitter scout and the player decides he is heading to the draft because he's going in the first round.

An agent was venting to me about about this a few months ago. Last year parents of his client saw a final list and he shot way up a media guys list. They decided to attend the draft. It didn't go well.

Anyone can miss on an evaluation, we do and team scouts do. What the team scouts don't like are the people that don't do the actual scouting and still make lists.

I did a guest hit on a radio show years ago. The co-host waited until I was off the air and then said..."Mark's a nice guy and everything but no way is Maatta is going in the 20's."

We had him ranked 22nd - check where he got selected. That was just a media guy checking a crapload of lists and seeing Maatta was top 10 on all of them so I didn't know what I was talking about. We ranked him where our evaluation took us. Misha Donskov (now a Dallas assistant) was on the London bench that year and did everything in his power to tell me that Maatta was a great kid etc... I stuck to my evaluation (and our other scouts) based on a ton of in person viewings. If we were wrong, it wasn't going to be wrong by following all the other rankings.

I feel like this really happened with Shane Wright to an extent in his draft year. Dude was talked about as the exceptional status kid, and a lock to go first overall. By draft time the people tuned into the draft would have been more shocked to see him for first than not. But the general media and your average fan still thought of Shane Wright as this expectational prospect and figured it was a lock Montreal was gunna take him.

We all see how that played out.

 

[Realgud]

I think it's interesting and unfortunate that even on this forum if you have someone who dare stray a little too far from media consensus, you'll have half of the posters shredding them. I think a lot of the times it shows that the person actually watched the players and have their own opinion on what they value instead of just shuffling a few names around based on the recent opinions and twitter/youtube highlights. Actual NHL teams certainly have vastly different lists from each other and if, for fun, they posted them here anonymously, they'd get equally shredded.

Everyone's list will have some good and some bad when you look back anyway. Some more than others and you can draw your conclusions on who did the best then.

 

[Mrfenn92]

My print version arrives on Friday. Can’t wait.

Same here

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I feel like this really happened with Shane Wright to an extent in his draft year. Dude was talked about as the exceptional status kid, and a lock to go first overall. By draft time the people tuned into the draft would have been more shocked to see him for first than not. But the general media and your average fan still thought of Shane Wright as this expectational prospect and figured it was a lock Montreal was gunna take him.

We all see how that played out.

Pretty sure he even got the "consensus #1" treatment during the draft lottery, like Bedard and Celebrini since.

 

[LeProspector]

A few reasons but in general because they work hard and then they see Joe twitter guy just throw up a list without ever seeing half the players play a shift. NHL Scouts lists are private but the twitter lists start getting regurgitated and taking on a life of their own. So Team scouts have a guy as a 5th rounder and Twitter scout has him 15th overall. Next thing you know 5-10 or more other 'media' scouts copy the twitter scout and the player decides he is heading to the draft because he's going in the first round.

An agent was venting to me about about this a few months ago. Last year parents of his client saw a final list and he shot way up a media guys list. They decided to attend the draft. It didn't go well.

Anyone can miss on an evaluation, we do and team scouts do. What the team scouts don't like are the people that don't do the actual scouting and still make lists.

I did a guest hit on a radio show years ago. The co-host waited until I was off the air and then said..."Mark's a nice guy and everything but no way is Maatta is going in the 20's."

We had him ranked 22nd - check where he got selected. That was just a media guy checking a crapload of lists and seeing Maatta was top 10 on all of them so I didn't know what I was talking about. We ranked him where our evaluation took us. Misha Donskov (now a Dallas assistant) was on the London bench that year and did everything in his power to tell me that Maatta was a great kid etc... I stuck to my evaluation (and our other scouts) based on a ton of in person viewings. If we were wrong, it wasn't going to be wrong by following all the other rankings.

Has to have been one of Jordan Tourigny or Mazden Leslie.

 

[jiboy]

Great job I am a huge fan of your work. I think your lists age pretty good and are well explained.

I been reading older Black books and it got me wondering , do you guys ever go over your biggest misses of the past to find out what went wrong ? A guy like Sebastian Aho in the 15 book is someone I have in mind

 

[UnSandvich]

So Mark/Michael, who were your favorite players to scout this year?

 

[bert]

It's nice when we get these divergent rankings. Maybe there's more to these guys that not everybody has seen.

Or just less qualified people making these lists. Or people looking for hits. Most of the internet scouts really have very little real hockey experience. Not saying this list in particular just in general.

Brock Otten has real life hockey experience and watches the OHL alot his list is legit.

In General I like Hockeyprospect.com lists they have been solid in my opinion and appreciate the hard work.

 

[Mark Edwards]

My print version arrives on Friday. Can’t wait.

Nice.

I think it's interesting and unfortunate that even on this forum if you have someone who dare stray a little too far from media consensus, you'll have half of the posters shredding them. I think a lot of the times it shows that the person actually watched the players and have their own opinion on what they value instead of just shuffling a few names around based on the recent opinions and twitter/youtube highlights. Actual NHL teams certainly have vastly different lists from each other and if, for fun, they posted them here anonymously, they'd get equally shredded.

Everyone's list will have some good and some bad when you look back anyway. Some more than others and you can draw your conclusions on who did the best then.

Scouts need to drown out the noise. It can be difficult but it's important to trust your own evaluations.

Pretty sure he even got the "consensus #1" treatment during the draft lottery, like Bedard and Celebrini since.

I remember hearing "If the Canadiens don't take Wright the fans will boo the crap out of them. "

Great job I am a huge fan of your work. I think your lists age pretty good and are well explained.

I been reading older Black books and it got me wondering , do you guys ever go over your biggest misses of the past to find out what went wrong ? A guy like Sebastian Aho in the 15 book is someone I have in mind

Yes, we do. Sometimes you figure it out why u missed and other times players just flat line.

Ratcliffe in Guelph was a big miss. I didn't ding him enough for for his average at best compete. i gave too much credit for some viewings that were the exception rather than the norm.

So Mark/Michael, who were your favorite players to scout this year?

Boring answer is Celebrini. He is fun to watch.

Off the top of my head, a few others too: Lindstrom, Silayev, Sennecke, Iginla and Parascak