I'm just wondering when S1 will run out. I thought originally they said the S1 e-packs would be "limited", but it is months later and you can still buy cases upon cases of the stuff.
I think the E-Packs are limited. Numbered hits are still coming out of them at the usual pace.
The issue is that E-Packs just haven't been as popular as they expected. I also think they held back more hits for the E-Packs than they let people know about. Don't think we ever got a confirmation of just how many hits were held back.
I also don't think the surplus of production is as big as people are letting on. Yes there was way more hobby. However, hobby is always limited, and it's the amount of retail, which determines the total supply. This year, retail was actually relatively hard to find. The increased prices in Canada also probably kept a lot of people away. $29.99 + tax for a blaster was simply too much. And unlike other years, the retail never went on sale (apart from that initial $35 Walmart blaster box sale upon release).
I think it's a situation where the collectors all got their Young Guns. However, what really determines value is demand in the future. If McDavid becomes a Crosby, in 10 years, a whole new generation of collectors will be looking to get a McDavid YG and willing to pay for it.