Hindsight - Dubas or Hunter?

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Hunter or Dubas?


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The premium -by your words- caused by how he played Marner/Nylander was a net ~1.4. Add in Matthews at 1m over for 2.4. The difference between their ELC's to optimum is 20m. When we're talking about year over year regression isolating on the 2.4 from misplaying the situation and ignoring the 20m is pants on head ignorant.

This season is not shaping up to be a success when viewed in isolation. And the decision to go for it rather than ride it out (keep Marleau, KK/AJ for picks, Kadri for Kerfoot/Faksa/Wallmark + picks, fill the D through UFA) has cost us some very significant futures. Providing that "going for it" was a choice rather than a board mandate there is warranted criticism given that asset drain. But the fact is that the core is not only intact but has been added to the tune of an elite 1C, and to materially improve on this season would likely have required that to not be the case.

TL;DR
Avoiding the almost inevitable step back this year while keeping the core intact would have been massively impressive and a huge win. It's looking like we're going to go 1/2 on that front, and the 1 is the one that has major positive long term ramifications.
You don't dump Kadri for a 1 year rental unless you think he's gonna make an impact on a run. The defenseman bad at defense we never needed surprisingly didn't work out :p If we don't move him at the deadline it's Kadri for Kerfoot. Cause there's no way he resigns. Please jesus.
 
So Dubas had his fingers crossed when he "told me (Nylander) multiple times that as long as he’s here he’s not going to trade me.”?

Maybe he whispered "unless someone calls me with a good offer" under his breathe as Nylander was leaving the room.

Or maybe he re-assured him multiple times that he sees him as a big part of the future and has no intention of trading him.

Nylander takes that truthful reassurance as a promise. Relays his interpretation to the media. Maybe he deliberately reframed it to posture and pressure Dubas.

No. Soundbites from people recalling and paraphrasing other peoples words are ironclad.
 
How are we evaluating Hunter? He was briefly an AGM and head scout and hasn't worked outside of the OHL otherwise.

This is basically, "Who's better, old guys or young guys"?
 
Blackhawks bounced back with that core pretty quickly. Hopefully, the Leafs can do the same.

Trading Marleau to alleviate the cap-space this year should mitigate the complaint that the team had to regress this year. Also, trading 3 years of Kadri to get Barrie for a year at a significantly reduced cap-hit should too. You are acting like the regression should be accepted this year, but ignore that we traded valued assets to alleviate which sort of changes the barometer on how Dubas's performance is measured. The season isn't over, but it's pretty hard to see this teams path to getting past Boston or Tampa this year even if they qualify.

They bounced back after a cap caused regression. What they did do that we maybe should have emulated was sell off the second level of talent (Ladd/Brouwer = Kap/AJ) and keep their own picks. Like I advocated for and said is a point of judgement for Dubas.

It did. I posted the roster result of not making those mitigating trades. It was significantly worse. It just seems like the mitigation wasn't enough/ wasn't done right. But it's fairly small in scope compared to the "fixes" many are advocating.
 
So Dubas had his fingers crossed when he "told me (Nylander) multiple times that as long as he’s here he’s not going to trade me.”?

Maybe he whispered "unless someone calls me with a good offer" under his breathe as Nylander was leaving the room.
So you are assuming if another GM calls Dubas and asks about Nylander he will say right away I promised him he won't be traded by me. All I'm saying is I think Dubas would listen and that's completely different to me saying he's trying to trade him.
 
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You don't dump Kadri for a 1 year rental unless you think he's gonna make an impact on a run. The defenseman bad at defense we never needed surprisingly didn't work out :p If we don't move him at the deadline it's Kadri for Kerfoot. Cause there's no way he resigns. Please jesus.

Who said they didn't hope he would make an impact? That trade was to go from 4.5m 3C + 1.75m D to 3.5m 3C + 2.75m D (actually worth 5+). It was about managing the cap and giving us a shot this year while not having to "dump" a real star in an ill advised trade.

I've said many times the smarter long term move would have been 3C+ futures and signing a lesser but perhaps better fitting D.
 
Nylander is currently oavibg for 35 goals amd is under 7 mil in terms.of caphit

Neither he nor any of the other "big four" are the problem on this team.

You are right but the big contracts have hurt our ability to maintain or acquire a supporting cast that will compliment those top 4.
 
They bounced back after a cap caused regression. What they did do that we maybe should have emulated was sell off the second level of talent (Ladd/Brouwer = Kap/AJ) and keep their own picks. Like I advocated for and said is a point of judgement for Dubas.

It did. I posted the roster result of not making those mitigating trades. It was significantly worse. It just seems like the mitigation wasn't enough/ wasn't done right. But it's fairly small in scope compared to the "fixes" many are advocating.
The main issue is, Dubas made significant moves with the intention of competing this year, and the team appears to be failing at that. He traded futures for Muzzin, he traded futures to remove Marleau, and trade 3 years of Kadri at a good cap-hit for one year of Barrie due to the Avs retaining at a significantly reduced cap-hit and Kerfoot at market price. So, I don't think you can give him that much a benefit of the doubt. He either should have been able to capitalize on last year's reduced cap-hits of Marner/Matthews, maybe not have the longest hold-out from a contributing player in recent memory, and trading futures to improve our fortunes last year, we shouldn't have stayed stagnant at best.

I mean, did Lou sign bad deals? Absolutely, but he also got us out of an even worse deal somehow by getting rid of Dion who had a limited NTC and a cap hit of 7m a year until the end of next year.
 
I think you could have made a decent argument for either guy, they both have strengths and weaknesses

We went with Dubas which I don't have a problem with, there were risks attached to either guy since they both lacked NHL GM experience

Dubas has done some things I liked, other stuff I didn't and still don't, I doubt I would have agreed with Hunter 100% of the time either

I'd give Dubas another 18 months in charge, if the team is still floundering and he seems unable to fix it I'd pull the trigger and ax him for somebody with some experience

I'm not that attached to anybody in the organization right now
 
Nylander is currently oavibg for 35 goals amd is under 7 mil in terms.of caphit

Neither he nor any of the other "big four" are the problem on this team.
The issue is though, most other teams have there key players at below market rates, and that is who we are competing against. The price of secondary players isn't going to go down, unless we believe all top players will be adequately paid like our top 4 players. The deals of the guys on teams like Boston, Pitt, Washington, and Tampa allow surplus-value. Outside of Nylander and Tavares, the other issue is the term got with those payments. Yes, I get certain players signed deals similar to Matthews a decade ago, but that wasn't the norm at the time Matthews signed. It was the deals McDavid, Eichel and Drai signed, which was 8-year terms. Which helps due to the back-end giving you more underpaid years as the cap-rises, considering players in their mid to late 20's should still be in their primes. With the Matthews deal, we don't get to capture that backend benefit that Oilers and Sabres will capture with theres.
 
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He is the right GM, but they rushed him in. There should have been an organizationa agreement on the make up/identity of the team.

For that I blame Shanahan. There should have been a mandate that this team was going to play hard and speed and skill shouldn’t be the only way to build this team.
 
The main issue is, Dubas made significant moves with the intention of competing this year, and the team appears to be failing at that.

Yup, and the decision to trade those futures and try and fight through an undeniable cap crunch is something to judge him on (if it was his call). Doesn't erase the crunch though, or change the fact that we're going to emerge from a potentially disappointing single year with our core intact and in great shape moving forward, when many of the alternatives put forward to "fix" a this year only problem would leave us in a much worse shape for many more years.

Being our best long term meant keeping the core intact, holding onto futures
Being our best this year would have required dealing a piece of the core to rebalance.
We kept our core intact, but dealt futures to try and giveourselves a shot.

He tried to do both, and it cost us a collection of futures that while material are cumulatively much more replaceable than a piece of our core. Going for it was risky, and may turn out to have been a waste. But those kind of short term tactical errors are far easier to forgive/overlook when the long term strategic impact still looks pretty awesome.
 
H
Pretty simple question, if you had to do it all over again would you have picked Hunter to be GM over Dubas.

Kept Lou as GM?

Hired another person to be GM?


Hindsight would only apply to Dubas in this case though, unless the other options were Leafs GM in an alternate universe at the same time.
 
You are right but the big contracts have hurt our ability to maintain or acquire a supporting cast that will compliment those top 4.

And those contracts will ”hurt us” long after this season, because your an idiot if you trade elite level players to package of lesser players and it’s hard to pull 1on1 trade with elite talent. It’s our ”burden” that got to draft during years of good forwards and we should happy that we drafted BPA every year. Would you be happy to have Hanifin instead of Marner, because of cap structure?

Elite talent is usually acquired by drafting and it’s mostly luck of which players you get to choose. How many succesful top level draft picks have been traded let’s say last five seasons?

Three? Hall, Jones and Johansen. Would you do those trades? I think Columbus is happy with Seth Jones, but Edmonton lost Hall for spare part and Johansen haven’t panned out in Nashville like Jones in Columbus.

It’s gamble. Let’s say we would have traded Nylander last summer? Would we be happy to watch him score 30-40 goals somewhere else?
 
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And those contracts will ”hurt us” long after this season, because your an idiot if you trade elite level players to package of lesser players and it’s hard to pull 1on1 trade with elite talent. It’s our ”burden” that got to draft during years of good forwards and we should happy that we drafted BPA every year. Would you be happy to have Hanifin instead of Marner, because of cap structure?

Elite talent is usually acquired by drafting and it’s mostly luck of which players you get to choose. How many succesful top level draft picks have been traded let’s say last five seasons?

Three? Hall, Jones and Johansen. Would you do those trades? I think Columbus is happy with Seth Jones, but Edmonton lost Hall for spare part and Johansen haven’t panned out in Nashville like Jones in Columbus.

It’s gamble. Let’s say we would have traded Nylander last summer? Would we be happy to watch him score 30-40 goals somewhere else?
If the Leafs had traded Nylander after last season when the return wouldn't have been that great and he went on to having the exact season we are seeing today, those same people who wanted Nylander traded would be calling for Dubas to get fired because of that.
 
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The main issue is, Dubas made significant moves with the intention of competing this year, and the team appears to be failing at that. He traded futures for Muzzin, he traded futures to remove Marleau, and trade 3 years of Kadri at a good cap-hit for one year of Barrie due to the Avs retaining at a significantly reduced cap-hit and Kerfoot at market price.

Kadri all ready played his prime years here. He was regressing and it was risk that after two mediocre season his trade value might have slumped. We traded him right time considering his value, because we got good price for him. Next few years we have to ship out good contracts and sign them first, if we want to contend. We can’t keep all the pieces. Kadri trade was first of many Chicago, Pittsburgh and LA deals where you trade away not so significant core pieces for position of weakness.

Barrie was wrong player, but idea was right and we don’t know if any better dman was available. You can’t forget our cap crunch and Barrie is playing for 2,75mil. Great value for offensive 50pt RHD. We could have kept Kadri, but we’re even more top heavy offensive team with him and if his regressing his trade value goes down.

It was time to move on with Kadri. He was luxury we couldn’t afford anymore.
 
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Yup, and the decision to trade those futures and try and fight through an undeniable cap crunch is something to judge him on (if it was his call). Doesn't erase the crunch though, or change the fact that we're going to emerge from a potentially disappointing single year with our core intact and in great shape moving forward, when many of the alternatives put forward to "fix" a this year only problem would leave us in a much worse shape for many more years.

Being our best long term meant keeping the core intact, holding onto futures
Being our best this year would have required dealing a piece of the core to rebalance.
We kept our core intact, but dealt futures to try and giveourselves a shot.

He tried to do both, and it cost us a collection of futures that while material are cumulatively much more replaceable than a piece of our core. Going for it was risky, and may turn out to have been a waste. But those kind of short term tactical errors are far easier to forgive/overlook when the long term strategic impact still looks pretty awesome.
But, I'm not sure the long-term strategic outlook does looks awesome. Which I guess is where we differ. Unlike other teams, we paid a premium and didn't get 8 years for Matthews and Marner, which means we likely have fewer years of being underpaid, while they are also paid similarly to elite players who signed 8-year deals within 18 months before them. That increases the likelihood of another significant cap-crunch coming when Matthews and Nylander come up for extensions. Essentially, by signing Tavares, and then signing Matthews to that 5 year deal, he is betting heavily on this 5 year window. Simply put, if we don't manage to win a cup in the next 5 years, given the talent he walked into the job with, he and our management has failed. So, I don't think when you sign Matthews to a 5 year deal, you can write off a year as a cap-crunch year. Especially since it isn't significantly reduced next year either.

Also, everything from Bell/Rogers has shown they were hands-off. If they are holding Dubas to the contending aspect this year, its because it was in his pitch when he campaigned to get the job. So, that should be a fair standard to hold him to, since as you've stated, the cap implications were known at the time.
 
Kadri all ready played his prime years here. He was regressing and it was risk that after two mediocre season his trade value might have slumped. We traded him right time considering his value, because we got good price for him. Next few years we have to ship out good contracts and sign them first, if we want to contend. We can’t keep all the pieces. Kadri trade was first of many Chicago, Pittsburgh and LA deals where you trade away not so significant core pieces for position of weakness.

Barrie was wrong player, but idea was right and we don’t know if any better dman was available. You can’t forget our cap crunch and Barrie is playing for 2,75mil. Great value for offensive 50pt RHD. We could have kept Kadri, but we’re even more top heavy offensive team with him and if his regressing his trade value goes down.

It was time to move on with Kadri. He was luxury we couldn’t afford anymore.
Dubas originally tried to trade Kadri to Calgary for T.J. Brodie and he vetoed that since the Flames were on his 10 team no trade list.
 
Kadri all ready played his prime years here. He was regressing and it was risk that after two mediocre season his trade value might have slumped. We traded him right time considering his value, because we got good price for him. Next few years we have to ship out good contracts and sign them first, if we want to contend. We can’t keep all the pieces. Kadri trade was first of many Chicago, Pittsburgh and LA deals where you trade away not so significant core pieces for position of weakness.

Barrie was wrong player, but idea was right and we don’t know if any better dman was available. You can’t forget our cap crunch and Barrie is playing for 2,75mil. Great value for offensive 50pt RHD. We could have kept Kadri, but we’re even more top heavy offensive team with him and if his regressing his trade value goes down.

It was time to move on with Kadri. He was luxury we couldn’t afford anymore.
Except as you stated Barrie was the wrong player, and that should have been abundantly clear. I don't have an issue with trading Kadri. But, just because the concept was right, but terribly executed trading for something that didn't really solve our needs shouldn't get you points. Any layman can figure out that we should trade our surplus of centers for a RHD. Dubas is paid millions of dollars to find the right one. Yet, he found one who wasn't a good fit next to Rielly or Muzzin for a variety of reasons. Barrie excels in getting a very specific type of usage (middle-pairing QOC while getting heavy offensive zone-starts). Which meant he had to either play that role with Rielly, which downloaded a level of tough usage on to Muzzin which he has never played in his life, playing with someone like Ceci or Holl. Or, Rielly was going to be asked to carry Ceci through extremely tough usage because Barrie needed simplistic usage or finally, you put him on the 3rd pairing with Dermott which doesn't really solve anything.
 
If the Leafs had traded Nylander after last season when the return wouldn't have been that great and he went on to having the exact season we are seeing today, those same people who wanted Nylander traded would be calling for Dubas to get fired because of that.
Holy crap that's a huge reach. :laugh:
 
Dubas originally tried to trade Kadri to Calgary for T.J. Brodie and he vetoed that since the Flames were on his 10 team no trade list.
That doesn't mean he has to then trade him for a player who doesn't fit our needs. You can hold on to Kadri and move him at a later date.
 
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how is anyone supposed to use hindsight to evaluate Hunter? We have no idea how he'd do. Picking him is just extremely weird. At least I can understand how people look at the Islanders and (wrongly) assume that Lou can still be a good GM, but Hunter just makes no sense. He's a supposed drafting guru who can't even draft as well as Dubas
 
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how is anyone supposed to use hindsight to evaluate Hunter? We have no idea how he'd do. Picking him is just extremely weird. At least I can understand how people look at the Islanders and (wrongly) assume that Lou can still be a good GM, but Hunter just makes no sense. He's a supposed drafting guru who can't even draft as well as Dubas
Let's see what Dubas pulls in during his drafts. The only thing we have on the NHL roster is Sandin. People seem to forget that Hanifin was the consensus pick in 2015.
 
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