Player Discussion: Heinola Thread

[Snowboy]

Don’t disagree but they would have had to call up another defenceman instead otherwise they would be down to 6 with the Schmidt and Stanley injuries. Would Ville say that is logical or would he have taken as another slight?

solid logic.......i just hope he doesn;t ask for a trade going forward. It would be a kick in the ass for our developmen t process. The thing that sits in my craw is of the competition he has, no one has proved to be better than him. It has to bother him. Bones say's he had a discussion with him about his future, i sure hope it mostly centered on developing strength and stamina and additional speed and not skills. That would be acceptable, but i don't think so with his shown propensity to yank players for mistakes. Those yanks have come in game time with the same cats back again..... but not Ville.

 

[JetsFan815]

Man, we`ve had this discussion over and over many times, haven`t we. The bottom line is -it`s only important to know how Bones feels about this, and he has used language that suggests he looks at it from the narrower perspective - ie "bring on a player who can help us win." Not the perspective I like but I`ve resigned myself to the reality.

I`m hopeful that Heinola will in fact get a number of games here in the next while given the injury to Schmidt, but once again I simply do not understand how the organization thinks this through. Why bring him up while he was still recovering from injury and clearly out of playing condition and then immediately sit him in the PB for an extended time when the Jet`s were on a compressed schedule and wouldn`t even be practicing? Especially since the Moose were scheduled to play games this past weekend, why not play him back into shape and THEN call him up, perhaps for the Ottawa game or whenever. Wouldn`t that have been fairer to Heinola and still allow the org to get a better look at Capobianco ?

Maintaining organization-player relationship is part of the equation. There is a massive pay difference in what he makes in the AHL vs what he's making on the NHL roster even if he is not in the starting lineup. I am sure the player would prefer making a big Christmas bonus of cash and have a chance at the NHL lineup (another d-man could have gotten hurt in the Canucks game for example) as opposed to playing yet another meaningless game in the AHL, a league where he has nothing left to prove (from Heinola's perspective).

If "play well with the Moose, be the best player on that team and you'll eventually get your shot" is part of the sales job to the player when he gets sent down, then that needs to be followed through via callups and you can't afford to be cute bringing up Sauntner or someone over him and risk even further stressing what is clearly an already a strained player-org relationship.

 

[Adam da bomb]

solid logic.......i just hope he doesn;t ask for a trade going forward. It would be a kick in the ass for our developmen t process. The thing that sits in my craw is of the competition he has, no one has proved to be better than him. It has to bother him. Bones say's he had a discussion with him about his future, i sure hope it mostly centered on developing strength and stamina and additional speed and not skills. That would be acceptable, but i don't think so with his shown propensity to yank players for mistakes. Those yanks have come in game time with the same cats back again..... but not Ville.

I disagree I think Samberg has been better.

 

[ps241]

solid logic.......i just hope he doesn;t ask for a trade going forward. It would be a kick in the ass for our developmen t process. The thing that sits in my craw is of the competition he has, no one has proved to be better than him. It has to bother him. Bones say's he had a discussion with him about his future, i sure hope it mostly centered on developing strength and stamina and additional speed and not skills. That would be acceptable, but i don't think so with his shown propensity to yank players for mistakes. Those yanks have come in game time with the same cats back again..... but not Ville.

If I remember correctly Samberg and Stanley got into the NHL mix once they were no longer waiver exempt. That is the spot where most orgs have to piss or get off the pot.

I feel like the longer it takes the less likely a guy is to play top 4 minutes well although my hot take is without a shred if empirical evidence.

Morrissey’s route was almost perfect. Two seasons back in juniors after the draft, then one full season in the AHL, and strait into the top 4 in the NHL. If it takes longer then that it seems like gravity starts working against you.

 

[surixon]

If I remember correctly Samberg and Stanley got into the NHL mix once they were no longer waiver exempt. That is the spot where most orgs have to piss or get off the pot.

I feel like the longer it takes the less likely a guy is to play top 4 minutes well although my hot take is without a shred if empirical evidence.

Morrissey’s route was almost perfect. Two seasons back in juniors after the draft, then one full season in the AHL, and strait into the top 4 in the NHL. If it takes longer then that it seems like gravity starts working against you.

The JoMo route almost didn't happen. He was effectively blocked from the top 4 as well at that point but then Trouba (who they planned on playing in the top 4 on the left side that year) held out and opened up the spot. It didn't hurt that Buff told Moe he wanted to play with Morrissey as well.

So sometimes it takes things to lineup in the absence of an actual plan. I hope the org has an actual plan to integrate Ville. We need him to pan out so that we have a cost controlled top 4 dmen so that we can pay the high prices for our core pieces as they come up over the next few years.

 

[Huffer]

The JoMo route almost didn't happen. He was effectively blocked from the top 4 as well at that point but then Trouba (who they planned on playing in the top 4 on the left side that year) held out and opened up the spot. It didn't hurt that Buff told Moe he wanted to play with Morrissey as well.

So sometimes it takes things to lineup in the absence of an actual plan. I hope the org has an actual plan to integrate Ville. We need him to pan out so that we have a cost controlled top 4 dmen so that we can pay the high prices for our core pieces as they come up over the next few years.

Agreed. Two uncontrollable factors for players are organizational depth (who you got drafted by), and luck (injuries, holdouts, trades, etc.).

Heinola may end up being a good player for us, or he might not. But personally, I don't find a ton of fault with how the Jets have handled his situation. I do howver think they messed up last year when the team was out of it, and there were large portions of time with Heinola not playing anywhere, but other than that, the fact of the matter is, the team has depth at his position (or did) and at this very moment, he does not need to go through waivers.

Now Stanley and Schmidt are both out. I'm very happy to see Heinola get a chance, and I really hope he gets both an extended chance (to get comfortable), and the permission to play to his strengths.

 

[surixon]

Agreed. Two uncontrollable factors for players are organizational depth (who you got drafted by), and luck (injuries, holdouts, trades, etc.).

Heinola may end up being a good player for us, or he might not. But personally, I don't find a ton of fault with how the Jets have handled his situation. I do howver think they messed up last year when the team was out of it, and there were large portions of time with Heinola not playing anywhere, but other than that, the fact of the matter is, the team has depth at his position (or did) and at this very moment, he does not need to go through waivers.

Now Stanley and Schmidt are both out. I'm very happy to see Heinola get a chance, and I really hope he gets both an extended chance (to get comfortable), and the permission to play to his strengths.

My only issue is they went out and got additional expensive depth in his position when he was near ready. They did the same with Trouba back in the day when they got Myers and played him over Jacob. While we know it was his now wife's schooling that drove the decision to hold out I'm sure his agents statement about usage at the time also rang true.

I guess that is my biggest issue with our development model. There really doesn't appear to be a plan to integrate our young d into prominent spots. Trouba spent years shackled to Stuart before holding out and forcing the issue. JoMo had to completely change his game and needed a hold out and the teams best player vouch for him to get his top 4 shot. Ville has been all over the place the last few years that I can't see any semblance of a plan.

You contrast it to the top forward prospects and there is a clear plan to put them in roles to succeed and leave them there once they prove ready.

You don't see them go out and trade for players with term on their deals for the top 6 when they have prospects close to ready for those roles. They go out and get short term options like Stastny, Jokinen etc. Yet they continually do it with the dcore. They either don't trust their ability to develop the d prospects like they do the forward ones or they have a harder time identifying what makes a good dmen in today's game.

I just find how wildly different the development approaches are as fascinating.

 

[Jet]

I disagree I think Samberg has been better.

Id say Capo has been better as well

My only issue is they went out and got additional expensive depth in his position when he was near ready. They did the same with Trouba back in the day when they got Myers and played him over Jacob. While we know it was his now wife's schooling that drove the decision to hold out I'm sure his agents statement about usage at the time also rang true.

I guess that is my biggest issue with our development model. There really doesn't appear to be a plan to integrate our young d into prominent spots. Trouba spent years shackled to Stuart before holding out and forcing the issue. JoMo had to completely change his game and needed a hold out and the teams best player vouch for him to get his top 4 shot. Ville has been all over the place the last few years that I can't see any semblance of a plan.

You contrast it to the top forward prospects and there is a clear plan to put them in roles to succeed and leave them there once they prove ready.

You don't see them go out and trade for players with term on their deals for the top 6 when they have prospects close to ready for those roles. They go out and get short term options like Stastny, Jokinen etc. Yet they continually do it with the dcore. They either don't trust their ability to develop the d prospects like they do the forward ones or they have a harder time identifying what makes a good dmen in today's game.

I just find how wildly different the development approaches are as fascinating.

There is no way Heinola was ready when they got Schmidt and Dillon. He's not even ready now based on actual performance

 

[surixon]

Id say Capo has been better as well


There is no way Heinola was ready when they got Schmidt and Dillon. He's not even ready now based on actual performance

I said near ready not actually ready. An equivalent type bridge move would have been to grab a guy with two years of term left not 4 years like Schmidt had.

Also hard to rate him as ready or not based on a whooping two games this year. One of which he performed well and one of which the whole team including him shat the bed. His last 10 NHL games he has 5 points and comparable underlying metrics to his main competitors. If he's not.ready than neither are they.

I have no idea why you are so enamored with Capo. He hasn't been good at all and is getting bailed out by team best 1.08 PDO.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Id say Capo has been better as well


There is no way Heinola was ready when they got Schmidt and Dillon. He's not even ready now based on actual performance

I am finally caught up to the last two games, and while it's hats off to Capo for stepping in and doing well, I honestly don't see what some do in him. He's basically competent, and while a few years ago I'd have done freaking somersaults to have seen him replace Beaulieu, Bitetto, Sbisa, Benn or [insert vet plug here], we're not in that position now. His skating is meh, his decision-making is meh, his shot is soft and he seems like a guy who is thinking the game a tick behind its actual speed. That spinorama against VAN was one of the slowest I've seen executed, and had that guy been remotely interested in playing the game of hockey, it's an easy pick and break.

We heard all TC that the coaching staff loved him, despite him ghosting through the preseason games, so he's obviously doing something right, but I just don't get it.

I have nothing really left to say about Heinola. I hope he gets a decent shot with a D that isn't Pionk, and that he shows well and cements a spot. But I'm not sure that's even possible at this stage, however he plays. So hopefully he can play well enough to bring back something useful in a trade if that's where things are trending. And Capo -- honestly, if he's better than Stan and is happy to sit in the PB until called on, that's a good thing to have in the bank.

 

[Snowboy]

My only issue is they went out and got additional expensive depth in his position when he was near ready. They did the same with Trouba back in the day when they got Myers and played him over Jacob. While we know it was his now wife's schooling that drove the decision to hold out I'm sure his agents statement about usage at the time also rang true.

I guess that is my biggest issue with our development model. There really doesn't appear to be a plan to integrate our young d into prominent spots. Trouba spent years shackled to Stuart before holding out and forcing the issue. JoMo had to completely change his game and needed a hold out and the teams best player vouch for him to get his top 4 shot. Ville has been all over the place the last few years that I can't see any semblance of a plan.

You contrast it to the top forward prospects and there is a clear plan to put them in roles to succeed and leave them there once they prove ready.

You don't see them go out and trade for players with term on their deals for the top 6 when they have prospects close to ready for those roles. They go out and get short term options like Stastny, Jokinen etc. Yet they continually do it with the dcore. They either don't trust their ability to develop the d prospects like they do the forward ones or they have a harder time identifying what makes a good dmen in today's game.

I just find how wildly different the development approaches are as fascinating.

Interesting points here , since their return the Jets have had no significant problems recruiting and integrating forwards, but when it came to defence they struggled. The jets have never developed a great defence, and this has been alluded to many times over the years.

 

[KingBogo]

Interesting points here , since their return the Jets have had no significant problems recruiting and integrating forwards, but when it came to defence they struggled. The jets have never developed a great defence, and this has been alluded to many times over the years.

I'd say it is more that they have drafted much more talent at forward than defense. We have only drafted 2 top 15 defenseman and 1 is out #1 D, and the other is making $8 M a season in New York. It is usually easier to insert young forwards as mistakes usually aren't as damaging and there is twice as many openings.

 

[Jet]

I said near ready not actually ready. An equivalent type bridge move would have been to grab a guy with two years of term left not 4 years like Schmidt had.

Also hard to rate him as ready or not based on a whooping two games this year. One of which he performed well and one of which the whole team including him shat the bed. His last 10 NHL games he has 5 points and comparable underlying metrics to his main competitors. If he's not.ready than neither are they.

I have no idea why you are so enamored with Capo. He hasn't been good at all and is getting bailed out by team best 1.08 PDO.

Pdo means nothing to me. I've seen a guy who holds the offensive blueline really well, has been creative offensively and held his own defensively despite being paired with Samberg who's been a bit jittery in his own end.

He's also only had a couple of games but unlike Heinola he hasn't seen any actual game action besides that.

 

[None]

Pdo means nothing to me. I've seen a guy who holds the offensive blueline really well, has been creative offensively and held his own defensively despite being paired with Samberg who's been a bit jittery in his own end.

It's literally just Shooting % + SV%, it's not a black box

And over a short sample it should mean something to you when it differs from the team's average by a significant amount. He hasn't been on the ice for a 5 on 5 goal against while being outchanced in high danger areas and outshot while also being the most sheltered defenseman on the team (65% OZS%).

Samberg on the other hand over a larger sample is a little less sheltered at 5 on 5 than Capobianco and posts better shot metrics. The team also generates a higher % of both low and high danger chances with Samberg on the ice. But Samberg's PDO is lower than the team's average despite having higher than average oiSH% than most of our defense and that's driven by significantly lower oiSV% than average.
Samberg also posts better numbers away from Capobianco despite starting in the defensive zone more often, though that's likely driven a bit by Schmidt just being better than Capobianco.

Capobianco won't ride a 100% sv% at 5 on 5 over an entire season though and ideally I'd want him to get a longer stretch of games to actually see if he can be effective in a less sheltered role like Samberg. It's tough to get a read on a player who only gets a game or two in short samples (which is a common complaint about Heinola's usage as well). As it is I'm not convinced he's not just another smooth skating big guy like Nathan Beaulieu, Joe Morrow, or Tyler Myers who just really weren't very effective.

Edit: Shot% -> SH%, changed to shooting percentage abbreviation so as not to be confused with CF%/FF%

 

[lomiller1]

Interesting points here , since their return the Jets have had no significant problems recruiting and integrating forwards, but when it came to defence they struggled. The jets have never developed a great defence, and this has been alluded to many times over the years.

I don't agree with this. Neither Connor nor Ehlers were integrated particularly effectively IMO, Scheifele was fine but still hinged on Little having a season ending injury at just the right time or we may have seen him in a more limited role for years past the point he was ready for more.

 

[voyageur]

I don't agree with this. Neither Connor nor Ehlers were integrated particularly effectively IMO, Scheifele was fine but still hinged on Little having a season ending injury at just the right time or we may have seen him in a more limited role for years past the point he was ready for more.

It was in the playoff year of 2015 that Scheifele passed Little, once Scheifele and Wheeler became the top line, and the 2nd line was Ladd, with Little and Frolik. Lowry's rookie season.

I still don't see Heinola's game coming together where he is processing it at a high enough speed. Repetition might change that. The Capobianco signing doesn't look so bad now because that's the competition for a lineup spot, and frankly Capobianco has been the more effective player.

If you think that Stanley was a higher selection, took 2 full years to crack the lineup, Ville's timetable is still next year. Losing a development year to Covid didn't help his progression. If I am Chevy you've got a cost controlled high level prospect, at a position that's uncertain in its talent level, beyond its leader. that's a player you want to develop properly.

Jets have 5 of their next 6 at home, 4 games which will come against potential playoff teams, I think that's going to be the measuring stick for where Ville's game is at.

 

[Jet]

Honestly I'd say run 14 with 44 but I don't want Morrissey to change his game thinking he has to babysit Heinola. I'm hoping some rest will get Dillon back to how he was playing earlier in the year as I think that's an ideal pair.

Capo Pionk could be a bit of an adventure but I think Neil could do with some easier matchups for a bit. He seems to be struggling with confidence.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Didn’t we play some games with the 44/14 pairing in the past? Struggling to remember.

 

[None]

Didn’t we play some games with the 44/14 pairing in the past? Struggling to remember.

Heinola's entire career:

19-20 - 8 games - 7x Pionk, 1x Poolman
20-21 - 5 games - 2x Demelo, 1.5 Morrissey, 1x Benn, .5 Forbort
21-22 - 12 games - 8x Pionk, 2x Schmidt, 1x Beaulieu, 1x Kovacevic
22-23 - 5 games - 2.5x Samberg, 1.5x Dillon, 1x Capobianco

21-01-2021 against the Senators with 11:16 TOI 5 on 5 with Morrissey
and 4 months later
10-05-2021 against the Canucks with 7:15 TOI 5 on 5 with Morrissey and 7:37 with Forbort

 

[Howard Chuck]

Heinola's entire career:

19-20 - 8 games - 7x Pionk, 1x Poolman
20-21 - 5 games - 2x Demelo, 1.5 Morrissey, 1x Benn, .5 Forbort
21-22 - 12 games - 8x Pionk, 2x Schmidt, 1x Beaulieu, 1x Kovacevic
22-23 - 5 games - 2.5x Samberg, 1.5x Dillon, 1x Capobianco

21-01-2021 against the Senators with 11:16 TOI 5 on 5 with Morrissey
and 4 months later
10-05-2021 against the Canucks with 7:15 TOI 5 on 5 with Morrissey and 7:37 with Forbort

Thanks.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I missed the last 2 games, but heard that heinola looked pretty good in these two games. Any thoughts from those who watched the games?

 

[surixon]

I missed the last 2 games, but heard that heinola looked pretty good in these two games. Any thoughts from those who watched the games?

His gap in the nz has been very good and he's jumping up to disrupt the play quite well. On retrieval he's getting back quickly and moving the pucks quickly. He's also showing much more confidence and poise with the puck on his stick and generally transitions well either by rushing or passing. Defensively he's been battling hard and is generally in pretty good position.

 

[garret9]

If I remember correctly Samberg and Stanley got into the NHL mix once they were no longer waiver exempt. That is the spot where most orgs have to piss or get off the pot.

I feel like the longer it takes the less likely a guy is to play top 4 minutes well although my hot take is without a shred if empirical evidence.

Morrissey’s route was almost perfect. Two seasons back in juniors after the draft, then one full season in the AHL, and strait into the top 4 in the NHL. If it takes longer then that it seems like gravity starts working against you.

You are correct

 

[hockeyarena]

I missed the last 2 games, but heard that heinola looked pretty good in these two games. Any thoughts from those who watched the games?

His supporters vastly overrate him. He took a terribly lazy penalty last game and looked under duress nearly every shift. Haven't seen him doing anything to suggest he's an NHL player. Heinola = Niku

 

[Howard Chuck]

His gap in the nz has been very good and he's jumping up to disrupt the play quite well. On retrieval he's getting back quickly and moving the pucks quickly. He's also showing much more confidence and poise with the puck on his stick and generally transitions well either by rushing or passing. Defensively he's been battling hard and is generally in pretty good position.

His supporters vastly overrate him. He took a terribly lazy penalty last game and looked under duress nearly every shift. Haven't seen him doing anything to suggest he's an NHL player. Heinola = Niku

Wow, interesting contradiction in viewing the games!

Thanks for both of the opinions....