Player Discussion: Heinola Thread

[FonRiesen]

Tl;dr - I'm mostly with @lomiller1 on this.

We have a prospect with the potential to be a top 4 D. But to get there, he needs reps at the NHL level - the AHL helps almost nothing at this point since it's a different game down there (speed, strategy, competition quality, etc). Will he be a top 4 quality in the next game? Likely not. But if he gets a solid 10+ game stretch, he will have a chance to adjust to NHL speed & skill, and if he gets regular ice time for this season, we'll have a very good idea of what we have come playoff time. But as long as he's at least 'as bad' as our worst current player that's older and a 'known quantity', we should play him now - the known quantity has value, but their game won't improve as much before the playoffs.

Waiver exemption is the #1 thing here, as far as I can tell (now that Schmidt is out; I think he should be in over H) - we know that's involved. But that gets in the way of the goal of assembling the best roster to win the Stanley Cup each year, which includes finding out sooner how well prospects adjust to actual games so we can get higher trade value instead of letting them walk or finding out they can't adjust after waiver exemption is over and letting a team grab them for free.

I was all for playing any of our D prospects ahead of guys like Beaulieu or any number of below AHL-replacement-level quasi-vets Maurice insisted on playing (because these guys "say the right things on the bench" even if they suck on the ice... Oh, Hendricks...).

Lately we've an least had above replacement level D, so I haven't complained as much. But now that we have injuries, we should absolutely be seeing what we have in H... We won't see a huge drop-off in results for the Next Game, but we have a good chance of seeing an increase in games 10+. If he doesn't show well, we could then rotate our replacement level D until Schmidt returns.

If he gets those games at the very end of the season, it's not worth it any more, because we can't have rookie mistake in the playoffs.

From the perspective of winning the Cup, playoff seed doesn't matter (we have to play the best at some point...). If playing Heinola now means we end up with 3 fewer points in the standings (which is absolutely extreme and unrealistically pessimistic from a statistical point of view), we'd maybe drop from 1st/2nd to 3rd/WC 1. That's worth it if it means getting past the inevitable rookie mistakes, and maybe having him become an extra top 4 D with some experience.

Players should focus on the next game, coaches need to focus on the progression of the season and getting the most out of the current roster, GM's need to focus on the Stanley Cup and competing perennially, and look at future rosters. In the past, we had a coach that could only focus on the next game, like a player. How good is Bowness at maximizing the current roster? We'll find out...

 

[FonRiesen]

how does "play the defense that gives us the best chance to win" go against winning the cup...

I think the only nuance is that if a young prospect is equal or the tiniest bit worse (let's say he changes our chance of winning the next game from 51.2% to 51.1% - and even that is probably high for a 3rd pairing D), then we should still go with the prospect that is very close during the season (in the playoffs, you absolutely 100% go with the best player *right now*), because by the end of the season that same prospect has a better chance of improving more than the AHL replacement quality player who has already gotten used to NHL speed but lacks the tools to get to the next level.

Worst case, we lose a point in the standings and end up with a prospect that now has experience but has proven that they struggle to adjust, (but will now be on at least equal footing with the older known quality). Average odds, we end the season with a prospect who is now slightly better than the AHL replacement dude, and can play in the playoffs. Best case, we end up with another top 4 D, who has accelerated their development and we know what we have before we have to decide whether to re-sign.

If we were an edge team, that 1 point might keep us out of the playoffs - in that case, it's a risk. But even then, losing a point early likely balances itself out with gaining a point later in the season. If you wait until the last 10 games, there isn't really time to see the benefits that season.

 

[surixon]

I think the only nuance is that if a young prospect is equal or the tiniest bit worse (let's say he changes our chance of winning the next game from 51.2% to 51.1% - and even that is probably high for a 3rd pairing D), then we should still go with the prospect that is very close during the season (in the playoffs, you absolutely 100% go with the best player *right now*), because by the end of the season that same prospect has a better chance of improving more than the AHL replacement quality player who has already gotten used to NHL speed but lacks the tools to get to the next level.

Worst case, we lose a point in the standings and end up with a prospect that now has experience but has proven that they struggle to adjust, (but will now be on at least equal footing with the older known quality). Average odds, we end the season with a prospect who is now slightly better than the AHL replacement dude, and can play in the playoffs. Best case, we end up with another top 4 D, who has accelerated their development and we know what we have before we have to decide whether to re-sign.

If we were an edge team, that 1 point might keep us out of the playoffs - in that case, it's a risk. But even then, losing a point early likely balances itself out with gaining a point later in the season. If you wait until the last 10 games, there isn't really time to see the benefits that season.

Well said. We are seeing exhibit A on this right now with Perfetti. Look at his play lately vs. The beginning of the year. He's much better and much more confident. He will likely continue to improve over the rest of the year.

The hope would be that we'd see a similar learning curve with Ville where he'd improve and get confident and perform well over the year.

 

[gojetsgo]

would have never thought saying "play the defense that gives you the best chance to win" would be so controversial... again for the 10th time if it's heinola great, but he has to prove he's ready now, we can't just force him in there in hopes he figures it out, not when were trying to win and have this much depth out of the line up

perfetti is and has always been a better prospect then heinola and is on the wing so it's much easier to hide if he did struggle plus he locked up his spot last year and looked ready before his injury occurred

heinola is only 21 years old, he may or may not be ready for full time duties yet he will get his chance to prove he can play in the next 4-6 weeks...

 

[Howard Chuck]

Tl;dr - I'm mostly with @lomiller1 on this.

We have a prospect with the potential to be a top 4 D. But to get there, he needs reps at the NHL level - the AHL helps almost nothing at this point since it's a different game down there (speed, strategy, competition quality, etc). Will he be a top 4 quality in the next game? Likely not. But if he gets a solid 10+ game stretch, he will have a chance to adjust to NHL speed & skill, and if he gets regular ice time for this season, we'll have a very good idea of what we have come playoff time. But as long as he's at least 'as bad' as our worst current player that's older and a 'known quantity', we should play him now - the known quantity has value, but their game won't improve as much before the playoffs.

Waiver exemption is the #1 thing here, as far as I can tell (now that Schmidt is out; I think he should be in over H) - we know that's involved. But that gets in the way of the goal of assembling the best roster to win the Stanley Cup each year, which includes finding out sooner how well prospects adjust to actual games so we can get higher trade value instead of letting them walk or finding out they can't adjust after waiver exemption is over and letting a team grab them for free.

I was all for playing any of our D prospects ahead of guys like Beaulieu or any number of below AHL-replacement-level quasi-vets Maurice insisted on playing (because these guys "say the right things on the bench" even if they suck on the ice... Oh, Hendricks...).

Lately we've an least had above replacement level D, so I haven't complained as much. But now that we have injuries, we should absolutely be seeing what we have in H... We won't see a huge drop-off in results for the Next Game, but we have a good chance of seeing an increase in games 10+. If he doesn't show well, we could then rotate our replacement level D until Schmidt returns.

If he gets those games at the very end of the season, it's not worth it any more, because we can't have rookie mistake in the playoffs - but from the perspective of winning the Cup, playoff need doesn't matter (we have to play the best at some point...). If playing Heinola now means we end up with 3 fewer points in the standings (which is absolutely extreme and unrealistically pessimistic from a statistical point of view), we'd maybe drop from 1st/2nd to 3rd/WC 1. That's worth it if it means no rookie mistakes, and maybe having 5 top 4 D with some experience.

Players should focus on the next game, coaches need to focus on the progression of the season and getting the most out of the current roster, GM's need to focus on the Stanley Cup and competing perennially, and look at future rosters. In the past, we had a coach that could only focus on the next game, like a player. How good is Bowness at maximizing the current roster? We'll find out...

Is it plagiarism if I simply say ‘ditto’?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Is it plagiarism if I simply say ‘ditto’?

yes! I’m reporting you to the teacher!

 

[Snowboy]

Well said. We are seeing exhibit A on this right now with Perfetti. Look at his play lately vs. The beginning of the year. He's much better and much more confident. He will likely continue to improve over the rest of the year.

The hope would be that we'd see a similar learning curve with Ville where he'd improve and get confident and perform well over the year.

We also saw it with Josh Morrisey, i recall in his early year with the Jets, when peeps on this board were calling for his removal or trade because he is not big enough.....the beat goes on. I also think Bones is aware of his superior skill to the competition but feel he needs time to get muscle and grit and that injury will stunt his development. Bones is old school in many ways like PoMo. PoMo. He would be holding him back as well.
What Ville needs to do is develop a bit of speed and learn to avoid hits like Josh did. He will only get that in the NHL. Josh just set a Jets record for most consecutive assissts on the Jets, passing another small defensive man Tobias Enstrom, that played in the slamming and banging era.......Oh well, size discrimination is rampid in the NHl and on this board. Many here blamed Enstrom for ruining their last chance at the Cup, when PoMo played the ass off our stars during the season, and that chance was ruined by a completely exhausted and injured Jets team.

 

[ecolad]

Man, we`ve had this discussion over and over many times, haven`t we. The bottom line is -it`s only important to know how Bones feels about this, and he has used language that suggests he looks at it from the narrower perspective - ie "bring on a player who can help us win." Not the perspective I like but I`ve resigned myself to the reality.

I`m hopeful that Heinola will in fact get a number of games here in the next while given the injury to Schmidt, but once again I simply do not understand how the organization thinks this through. Why bring him up while he was still recovering from injury and clearly out of playing condition and then immediately sit him in the PB for an extended time when the Jet`s were on a compressed schedule and wouldn`t even be practicing? Especially since the Moose were scheduled to play games this past weekend, why not play him back into shape and THEN call him up, perhaps for the Ottawa game or whenever. Wouldn`t that have been fairer to Heinola and still allow the org to get a better look at Capobianco ?

 

[Adam da bomb]

We also saw it with Josh Morrisey, i recall in his early year with the Jets, when peeps on this board were calling for his removal or trade because he is not big enough.....the beat goes on. I also think Bones is aware of his superior skill to the competition but feel he needs time to get muscle and grit and that injury will stunt his development. Bones is old school in many ways like PoMo. PoMo. He would be holding him back as well.
What Ville needs to do is develop a bit of speed and learn to avoid hits like Josh did. He will only get that in the NHL. Josh just set a Jets record for most consecutive assissts on the Jets, passing another small defensive man Tobias Enstrom, that played in the slamming and banging era.......Oh well, size discrimination is rampid in the NHl and on this board. Many here blamed Enstrom for ruining their last chance at the Cup, when PoMo played the ass off our stars during the season, and that chance was ruined by a completely exhausted and injured Jets team.

I wonder if people’s love for Heinola comes from a size bias and they are smaller guys and see themselves and how they have adjusted to the game in Heinola.

 

[pucka lucka]

Man, we`ve had this discussion over and over many times, haven`t we. The bottom line is -it`s only important to know how Bones feels about this, and he has used language that suggests he looks at it from the narrower perspective - ie "bring on a player who can help us win." Not the perspective I like but I`ve resigned myself to the reality.

I`m hopeful that Heinola will in fact get a number of games here in the next while given the injury to Schmidt, but once again I simply do not understand how the organization thinks this through. Why bring him up while he was still recovering from injury and clearly out of playing condition and then immediately sit him in the PB for an extended time when the Jet`s were on a compressed schedule and wouldn`t even be practicing? Especially since the Moose were scheduled to play games this past weekend, why not play him back into shape and THEN call him up, perhaps for the Ottawa game or whenever. Wouldn`t that have been fairer to Heinola and still allow the org to get a better look at Capobianco ?

It's a nice Christmas bonus to get paid NHL bucks.

 

[surixon]

Man, we`ve had this discussion over and over many times, haven`t we. The bottom line is -it`s only important to know how Bones feels about this, and he has used language that suggests he looks at it from the narrower perspective - ie "bring on a player who can help us win." Not the perspective I like but I`ve resigned myself to the reality.

I`m hopeful that Heinola will in fact get a number of games here in the next while given the injury to Schmidt, but once again I simply do not understand how the organization thinks this through. Why bring him up while he was still recovering from injury and clearly out of playing condition and then immediately sit him in the PB for an extended time when the Jet`s were on a compressed schedule and wouldn`t even be practicing? Especially since the Moose were scheduled to play games this past weekend, why not play him back into shape and THEN call him up, perhaps for the Ottawa game or whenever. Wouldn`t that have been fairer to Heinola and still allow the org to get a better look at Capobianco ?

The coach also said that when Ville's game reached a certain level they would bring him up and give him a big run of games. So hard to know if they view him as ready now or if this is just to get him some extra cash before Xmas.

 

[gojetsgo]

We also saw it with Josh Morrisey, i recall in his early year with the Jets, when peeps on this board were calling for his removal or trade because he is not big enough.....the beat goes on. I also think Bones is aware of his superior skill to the competition but feel he needs time to get muscle and grit and that injury will stunt his development. Bones is old school in many ways like PoMo. PoMo. He would be holding him back as well.
What Ville needs to do is develop a bit of speed and learn to avoid hits like Josh did. He will only get that in the NHL. Josh just set a Jets record for most consecutive assissts on the Jets, passing another small defensive man Tobias Enstrom, that played in the slamming and banging era.......Oh well, size discrimination is rampid in the NHl and on this board. Many here blamed Enstrom for ruining their last chance at the Cup, when PoMo played the ass off our stars during the season, and that chance was ruined by a completely exhausted and injured Jets team.

and morrisey didn't make it to the nhl until he was 22 which is older then heinola is currently.. was his development hurt? heinola will get his chance to prove in the next month+ that he is ready but if he struggles he shouldn't be playing...

 

[surixon]

and morrisey didn't make it to the nhl until he was 22 which is older then heinola is currently.. was his development hurt? heinola will get his chance to prove in the next month+ that he is ready but if he struggles he shouldn't be playing...

Morrissey made it full time his draft plus 4 year which is the same stage that Ville is at now.

 

[gojetsgo]

Morrissey made it full time his draft plus 4 year which is the same stage that Ville is at now.

ah my mistake, still don't think it changes much and heinola should still have to prove that he is ready

 

[FonRiesen]

I wonder if people’s love for Heinola comes from a size bias and they are smaller guys and see themselves and how they have adjusted to the game in Heinola.

I can't speak for others, but I see his potential based on watching him play with the Moose... He'd be a boon to our PP2 once he gets comfortable at NHL speeds.

I only think he should be playing with injuries to our current roster, like right now. Schmidt should be playing in front of him when healthy.

I appreciated Buff AND Enstrom, and they produced using very different tools - both contributed a lot to our success back then. Buff was more entertaining and flashier, but Enstrom was also great at contributing to outscoring the opponent while on the ice with his awareness, positioning, anticipation, and passing. It was more subtle, though. I'm open to players contributing in both flashy and subtle ways.

Size matters not (aka you can use size to your advantage, whether big or small: shiftiness and agility, low centre of gravity can be effective, too), results matter more (small sucky players shouldn't play in the NHL, neither should tall sucky players).

 

[Snowboy]

I wonder if people’s love for Heinola comes from a size bias and they are smaller guys and see themselves and how they have adjusted to the game in Heinola.

No...i didn't see any terrible errors made by Ville in the few games he was allowed. I saw a guy who could score and put the puck on players sticks without breaking stride. Since then i saw many of our defence making the same errors, without being pulled, and without skillful passing skills, especially in the last game. There is a long standing factual bias for size in the Nhl.....don't you think?

 

[ps241]

I have reached a point where I have fought enough fights for burgeoning prospects that fizzled out over the years that I am ok to let Bones + the Moose coaches + the player development team call the shots on this one. Obviously I would like to see Ville succeed and by that I don’t mean a 6-7 level player like Stanley who is “currently” replaceable off the waiver wire or pending summer FA’s.

Hopefully Ville just takes a bit longer like Liljegren who didn’t get a full time gig until his draft +5 season.

We’ll see

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

if giving him reps now costs us points it is not worth playing him, were trying to win. this is the winnipeg jets not the heinola jets... I mean we should really wait until heinola gets a full season before worring about how much he is going to get paid... all I said was the jets need to play the defense that gives them the best chance to win... if heinola proves he is ready during the next 4-6 weeks then great I'll be happy, if not then he can go back down to the moose and work on his game, didn't really seem to hurt morrisey who was down there at the same age

That's a big IF. We have no reason to suspect that giving him reps WILL cost us points now.

Josh spent his D+3 season in the A and never played there after that season. 1 seaon plus 8 games in his D+1 season. Ville is in his D+4 season and has spent parts of 4 seasons in the A. He's not playing a large number of games anywhere most seasons because he keeps getting called up to sit in the PB. Either play him, or send him down and call up someone else. Anyone else will do to sit in the PB.

Again, your #6 D-man is not going to impact you point totals. If any of the players we are considering were good enough to significantly change the Jets chances to win they would #2 or #3 D-men not #6 D-men.

Can't agree with that. How many minutes does the #6 Dman usually play? A lot more than the #12 F.

 

[gojetsgo]

That's a big IF. We have no reason to suspect that giving him reps WILL cost us points now.

Josh spent his D+3 season in the A and never played there after that season. 1 seaon plus 8 games in his D+1 season. Ville is in his D+4 season and has spent parts of 4 seasons in the A. He's not playing a large number of games anywhere most seasons because he keeps getting called up to sit in the PB. Either play him, or send him down and call up someone else. Anyone else will do to sit in the PB.

did I say that? I said if he struggles he shouldn't play after people said he should play no matter what....

 

[LowLefty]

I have reached a point where I have fought enough fights for burgeoning prospects that fizzled out over the years that I am ok to let Bones + the Moose coaches + the player development team call the shots on this one. Obviously I would like to see Ville succeed and by that I don’t mean a 6-7 level player like Stanley who is “currently” replaceable off the waiver wire or pending summer FA’s.

Hopefully Ville just takes a bit longer like Liljegren who didn’t get a full time gig until his draft +5 season.

We’ll see

100% -
Every once in a while we need to give the org the benefit of the doubt and assume they are not old school idiots because they don't set the lineup the way we might.

 

[FonRiesen]

100% -
Every once in a while we need to give the org the benefit of the doubt and assume they are not old school idiots because they don't set the lineup the way we might.

I'm (perhaps naively) hopeful that the org is improving on this aspect, moving in the right direction - but Maurice and Huddy were basically the epitome of old school, so we had nowhere to go but up...

 

[Jet]

I feel like the whole size bias argument leaves out a lot of the other components in deciding if a guy like Heinola is ready for the NHL. A lot of the smaller D comparisons being made here are unfair because those players are a higher pedigree than Heinola.

There is still potential in my mind for him to become an everyday defenseman in the NHL, but his lack of progression to this point suggests he's more likely to be a third pair 2pp guy than a top 4 all rounder with offensive chops. That type of D in a smaller size is more rare than some think.

Heinola could get there if he gets stronger. Strength is independent of size.

At this point I could see him become a Fox, a Vatanen or, sadly, a Niku.

What I do know is the Jets priorities have shifted with our start, and today's Heinola isn't the best option. I do hope he gets some games and figures it out, but he'll have to be a lot better in his own zone or start putting up points. Either way, he needs to be a net positive somehow.

 

[JetsFan815]

I am actually glad he didn't get slotted in in the Seattle game. Would not have been fair on him considering how everyone else played. I fully expect to see him in the lineup against the Sens though. That 2nd PP looks sad right now.

 

[KingBogo]

Man, we`ve had this discussion over and over many times, haven`t we. The bottom line is -it`s only important to know how Bones feels about this, and he has used language that suggests he looks at it from the narrower perspective - ie "bring on a player who can help us win." Not the perspective I like but I`ve resigned myself to the reality.

I`m hopeful that Heinola will in fact get a number of games here in the next while given the injury to Schmidt, but once again I simply do not understand how the organization thinks this through. Why bring him up while he was still recovering from injury and clearly out of playing condition and then immediately sit him in the PB for an extended time when the Jet`s were on a compressed schedule and wouldn`t even be practicing? Especially since the Moose were scheduled to play games this past weekend, why not play him back into shape and THEN call him up, perhaps for the Ottawa game or whenever. Wouldn`t that have been fairer to Heinola and still allow the org to get a better look at Capobianco ?

Don’t disagree but they would have had to call up another defenceman instead otherwise they would be down to 6 with the Schmidt and Stanley injuries. Would Ville say that is logical or would he have taken as another slight?

 

[ecolad]

Don’t disagree but they would have had to call up another defenceman instead otherwise they would be down to 6 with the Schmidt and Stanley injuries. Would Ville say that is logical or would he have taken as another slight?

Yeah. they certainly would have had to call up another PB defenseman for a week or so - as others have mentioned provide some extra holiday cash. I have to believe that Ville wouldn`t have any problems if they simply told him up front that they wanted him to recover and recondition himself playing with the Moose for that period of time - following which he would be called up for his awaited chance.