Has Dubas failed at his job?

[Pookie]

Dubas built his version of the team by focusing on specific data points and trying to minimize the influences of other data points that relied on observational/recency bias.

He also has a philosophy of style of play revolving around possession, speed and other variables.

So far we can agree that either those data points are useless

OR

That Dubas’ Organization isn’t as adept at using them as other teams are.

 

[LeafGrief]

Click on the Leafs board for the first time in a week, see the same thread as the last three months but posted yesterday.

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[Racer88]

I think Dubas has been fine overall.. he overpaid Marner for sure, but otherwise he's been pretty good.. some savvy trades and signings no doubt

I personally liked almost everything he did to this team - at the time that it was done.. besides maybe the Kadri trade, but I really liked Kadri

Wasn't a big fan of Thorton when he signed either, but I think the bigger problem was how Keefe was using him.. had he just played on the 4th line & no PP all season it would have been fine.

The way I see it is Dubas every year is trying to surround the core with the right players .. for a couple years it was veteran leadership .. and now it's toughness/grit.. Every year we go into the season and the Leafs are at the top of all predictions, IMO that's the GMs job right there. Where they go from there is on the players and coach.

Leafs went into 2021 playoffs as the unanimous favourites. Don't think a anyone picked Montreal to win. The players ghosted and Keefe got out coached second year in a row. I don't see how that's the GMs fault really..

I wouldn't be surprised that if they fail again this year (i mother f***ing hope not......), Dubas will be the one who handles the "retool"...

Dubas built the team and picked the coach……so ya it is his fault

 

[killer1980]

There is so much more in being a GM than seeing someone has talent. In the NHL heart and desire have to be as important, or maybe even more, than raw talent. Nobody succeeds in this league without getting their hands dirty, or their nose broken. I think Dubas should introduce his three high priced kids to the Scotiabank sign along the boards. They have never been close to it. They let go one that actually did stick his nose in there. The other problem is damaged goods. It's beginning to look more and more like their biggest star may not have the physical capacity to make it through a season and playoffs. That and balancing the books gives this GM a failing grade.

 

[egd27]

Dubas built the team and picked the coach……so ya it is his fault

I suppose you could bump it up a level to Shanahan for inexplicably changing course from allowing experienced coaches and managers to build this team to allowing unproven theorists to test their hypotheses on the biggest hockey stage there is.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I hate to say this, but I really have to question if you even watched the series. Kerfoot had no trouble stepping up, and was 2nd on the team in scoring. Not to mention that it's impossible for a team to have every bottom of the lineup player ready to fill in for a top player going down in the event of an injury. This isn't the Olympics

Well our coach didn’t trust Kerfoot to take on the 2C role. When Tavares went down the first thing he did was throw Foligno in there who hadn’t played center in like 4 years. And no it’s not impossible to find a 3C that can step up in case of injury

 

[Mess]

My issue isn't with the GM but rather Leafs cap management and how we got here. I'm of the belief that its going to be extremely difficult to win with 1/2 your cap tied up in just 4 forwards, as it doesn't allow you to build a deep and competitive team around them to be successful come playoff time.

I believe Leafs lack of 1st round success is tied directly to this fact. Last year is was more obvious because when one of the 4 core particularly the $11 mil players go down to injury then suddenly your playing $11 mil down with his replacement generally a low level <$1 mil player, which exponentially amplifies this cap usage.

Up to now no team has ever won a playoff round with an double digit skater on their roster, and it when you see teams like Chicago and LA win 5 Cups in 6 years and then they paid their players for that success in Toews and Kane and Kopitar and Doughty and now they struggle to make the playoffs or get out of round #1.

There are only 3 ways out of this situation.

1) Win and prove that theory wrong that its not the cap management that is bringing this team down of toooo much cap in toooo few players.

2) Deal away at least 1 of the $11 mil players and spread the cap among numerous players to add quality depth. For example if you turned Marner into a $5 mil forward and $6 mil forward and you get 25-30 goals and 50-60 points from each you have more goal production than having just 1 X 25 goal scorer 90 point player into 50-60 goals and 100-120 points.

3) Try and create a top 9 with 1 X $11 mil player on each line to drive them and fill in around them and create mismatches for opposition by spreading out the cap among 3 lines all built to be dangerous offensively and hope that at least one line in any given game has the ability to secure a win. No team is deep enough to check and shutdown 3 lines .. However all your eggs in just 1 or 2 baskets plays right into the shutdown strategy of the opposition because if you limit or shutdown the core 4, you beat the Leafs.

XXXX -- -Matthews --- XXXX
XXXX ---Tavares -------XXXX
XXXX ---Nylander ----Marner

etc.

 

[Ciao]

Also, Although the Tavares injury isn’t Dubas fault. Dubas is at fault for us not having a third line center that can jump into a 2C role when needed due to injury. Kerfoot is not that guy, despite the fact that he’s paying him like he is. Keefe had no confidence in Kerfoot at 2C he was juggling the lines all series trying out Foligno and Engvel in Tavares role. Dubas and Keefe should have been more prepared for the possibility of one of our top 2 centres going down.

Let's bump that up from the 2C to the 1C:

Imagine that Dubas had not signed Tavares.

Who, then, would fill in at 1C when Matthews is hurt? Bozak? Kadri? Who else?

 

[noo]

Dubas built the team and picked the coach……so ya it is his fault

Yes he built the team and picked the coach.. but every year he's adapted and acquired players that, generally, people would agree are what the team needs at the time..

When they were young inexperienced kids, he's bringing in vets and leadership. Defence sucks, he's made it undoubtedly better. Kids shouldn't need leadership any more, he's bringing in toughness to surround them. What more can he really do... not wanting to give up on the core IMO is the correct move this year..

Matthews and Marner not doing shit in the playoffs isn't his fault.. Cocky coach refusing to line match, even after your #2 C goes down, isn't his fault..

I'd rather see a coaching change before a GM change tbh

 

[Cams]

Click on the Leafs board for the first time in a week, see the same thread as the last three months but posted yesterday.

See you guys in a week.

School starts soon....

 

[TDotMassive]

This should be his final year if we have any accountability in the organization.

If we disappoint again it should be a huge culture change change core pieces moved and a major retool initiated by a new GM/President and Coach

Hopefully that isn't the case and we make to ECF at minimum

As a die hard Leads fan of 4 decades... this is not a satisfactory amount of suffering. We need at least 5 more years of total failure before I feel comfortable being hopeful for the future again. Until then...let it ride.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Let's bump that up from the 2C to the 1C:

Imagine that Dubas had not signed Tavares.

Who, then, would fill in at 1C when Matthews is hurt? Bozak? Kadri? Who else?

Imagine that Dubas had not signed Tavares and it came out that he could have? The same people in here would be (or would have been) screaming bloody murder.

Again: every GM in the league would have and probably did try to sign him.

 

[Anthrax442]

Click on the Leafs board for the first time in a week, see the same thread as the last three months but posted yesterday.

See you guys in a week.

But wait.. Theres more!

 

[MagicalRazor]

Failed in what aspect ?

He’s acquired everything but a #1 D
Built a team good enough on paper to compete in the play offs.

Dubas built the best leaf team in the past 15 years IMO . It’s now up to the coaches and players to do their part , Dubas did his

The cap situation was unexpected. Every NHL team was under the impression that the Cap would go up 2-2.5M for 2 years the 20-21 seasons no one expected Covid resulting in a flat cap.
He gave out contracts and tried to lock up his big players before the cap raise and ultimately it back fired due to a global pandemic out of his control. Next year the cap is reported to increase 1.5M , Kessel’s contract comes off the books as well so the leafs will have an extra 2.7 M to play with

 

[Byron Bitz]

Failed in what aspect ?

He’s acquired everything but a #1 D
Built a team good enough on paper to compete in the play offs.

Dubas built the best leaf team in the past 15 years IMO . It’s now up to the coaches and players to do their part , Dubas did his

Did he build it? Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Hyman and Rielly were already here. Yes he signed Tavares but that was more Tavares choosing to come home. Any GM could have signed Tavares in Toronto. I think that core is a championship level core but Dubas failed to get them all signed to good enough deals and surround them with the right players/coaches.

 

[banks]

A manager's job is to put people in a position to succeed. I think he's done that, despite the fact that the success hasn't happened yet.

Eventually the success will have to come, though. Because it's a results oriented business.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

QUOTE="ottomaddox, post: 179927936, member: 293901"]Just to add:

You can't be excellent at drafting when you trade away 1st round picks (3 so far).[/QUOTE]
What? Excellent drafting teams hit on players outside the first round all the time. Look at Tampa.

Kucherov -2nd
Point-4th
Palat -7th
Killorn - 3rd
Cirelli - 3rd

That's their 2 best forwards and some of the leagues best plus 2 others in their top 6 among others like Joseph and Colton.

Plenty of other examples like Boston, Carolina, St.louis, Nashville who produce outside the 1st round as well. Are they not considered good drafting teams?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Failed in what aspect ?

He’s acquired everything but a #1 D
Built a team good enough on paper to compete in the play offs.

Dubas built the best leaf team in the past 15 years IMO . It’s now up to the coaches and players to do their part , Dubas did his

The cap situation was unexpected. Every NHL team was under the impression that the Cap would go up 2-2.5M for 2 years the 20-21 seasons no one expected Covid resulting in a flat cap.
He gave out contracts and tried to lock up his big players before the cap raise and ultimately it back fired due to a global pandemic out of his control. Next year the cap is reported to increase 1.5M , Kessel’s contract comes off the books as well so the leafs will have an extra 2.7 M to play with

The team he took over was already that.

Also, I wish people would stop saying things like best Leaf team since whenever. It only serves to remind everyone what a shitty team this has mostly been for the last 50+ years.

 

[egd27]

Imagine that Dubas had not signed Tavares and it came out that he could have? The same people in here would be (or would have been) screaming bloody murder.

Again: every GM in the league would have and probably did try to sign him.

Wouldn't that depend on how successfully he deployed the $11M he used on JT? Let's say, for example, he lost out on Tavares but then made other moves that resulted in back to back Final Four finishes? I'm sure his tenure would be looked at quite differently.

Now granted, that's an unlikely scenario......oh wait a sec, no, it's not.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Wouldn't that depend on how successfully he deployed the $11M he used on JT? Let's say, for example, he lost out on Tavares but then made other moves that resulted in back to back Final Four finishes? I'm sure his tenure would be looked at quite differently.

Now granted, that's an unlikely scenario......oh wait a sec, no, it's not.

Again, every GM in the league...

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I believe he has. Would love to hear why he hasn’t. When you look at what he inherited the results havnt been good enough. Not many GMs begin their tenure with 3 game breaking offensive talents including a guy who at the time was widely viewed as the second most valuable asset in the league all on their ELC and Rielly on an amazing contract.

I like his drafting for the most part. Construction of a team at the nhl is pathetic

 

[Aashir]

He still has his job. Until that changes, he’s not a failure. He’s just failed and failing. If he gets fired with no success like now, then he will be deemed a failure by me

 

[Wafflewhipper]

My Dubas opinion means nothing right now. He has to win now and he is a dead man walking if they fail this year. I doubt he would survive a 7 or 8 game losing streak in the regular season actually. He is basically done unless the team explodes in the right direction.
He’s made some pretty weak decisions. The least of which is not how he put all of Matthews,Marner and Nylander right in to UFA with these deals.
All should have been 3 years and at much lower value bridge deals. There will be zero asset management of these players with this G.M. They will either sign over valued deals again or walk. Isn’t that a obnoxiously ignorant position he’s envisioned for us.
He’s adaptable but always a day late and a dollar short.
I don’t really like the yellow players or the man that put this together right now.

 

[ponder]

Again, every GM in the league...

It is certainly not the case that every GM in the league would have signed JT to a 7 year, $11 mil AAV contract with a full NMC. Even looking at just the AAV (nevermind the player-friendly term and AAV), JT has the 3rd highest cap hit of any centre in the league, behind only McDavid and Matthews. Even when he signed this deal, he was more of a borderline top 10 centre, who was likely to decline over the deal given age/term. Other JT-level centres have not been paid like JT, UFA or not.

Based on rumours at the time, the Isles offered more, but the Leafs offer was 2nd biggest. Assuming that's true, it seems likely the other 29 GMs wouldn't have/didn't given him the offer Dubas did.

Also, team needs are extremely important. The Leafs at the time had 3 really high end, young forwards in Matthews/Marner/Nylander, JT wasn't really a need. Especially since we had a very serviceable 2C in Kadri, on a great contract. Everyone knew our young stars were about to get paid, and that cap space was about to get tight, balling out on a non-team-need was questionable at the time, and turned out to be IMO a very poor decision.

IMO, somebody should have given JT about 7 years, $10 mil AAV, with more of a modified NTC (limited no-trade list) than a full NMC. And that somebody should have been a team with a lot of other pieces in place, that badly needed a 1C. With that slightly better deal, on a team that really needed a 1C, you could look at that and say "we likely made the team better long-term with this signing". However, for us, 7 years, $11 mil AAV, full NMC, given our team needs, it was a bad call. Even if Dubas could have negotiated a modified NTC, we could have shipped JT out already and improved our depth/balance, but that NMC with that huge salary and lack of team need at 1C, it was a major mistake.

 

[ottomaddox]

Click on the Leafs board for the first time in a week, see the same thread as the last three months but posted yesterday.

See you guys in a week.

You are a glutton for punishment.