I saw the game this morning.
A few thoughts:
*Lias is the obvious starting point. Let’s break this down so it makes some sense, because with all due respect I think
@Kovalev27 is missing some things.
1. What are we watching? The AHL. The game down there — when HFD is playing at least — is pretty horrible. There are extremely few instances were more than 2-3 passes are made in a row by one team. 1-2 passes are made and then a player face patrol and often it’s a stick on stick play were the puck bounce up in the air, at best going into an area.
Reading Knoblauchs comments at Howlins after games, all he is talking about is passing, passing and then more passing. He is coming from the NHL and it’s extremely clear for him what the next step is — these teams are really far from any NHL team when it comes to keeping possession of the puck. The reason for that is quite simple: 1. The skill is in the NHL, but the checking ability is in the AHL. The AHL is full of good checkers. In terms of checking ability, the AHL is through the roof. 2. As we have seen in NY this year, bringing in many new players means that it takes time to get the game going. In the AHL all teams have massive turnover every year. Play simple and conservative, and you will be rewarded.3. Tradition. Many coaches have been in the AHL a long time and don’t want to experiment, don’t know what it takes in terms of drills and what not, not the least patient, to be more creative with the puck.
As a result, what pays of the most in the AHL is to be able to jump at opportunities when they present themselves. This is fundamentally different from the NHL, unless if you maybe play on a 4th line. There is no ‘play’.
2. What does Lias do well? He is heads and shoulders above everyone down there when it comes to distributing and passing the puck. On the PP he is the only one who manage to buy himself time, calm things down, and find open ice. I think it’s a little odd to say that he did ‘nothing’ last night. He had what 8-9 really good plays on the PP. Lias plays the Ziba role in the middle on the PP. he did that great, but he would get more pts if he played the role he did early last season as the set-up guy.
He is also heady, gritty, good in 1 on 1 battles. Good shot. And so forth. But it’s how well he sees the ice that really stands out. Nobody in HFD is even close to him.
3. What is Lias not good at? Lias basically never manage to get into a situation where he has speed under his skates, pick up a lose puck and can set of up the ice before the Ds can start moving back. This is a typical flaw of a kid that is rushed. When you are 16 and playing against men, you want the kid to play with little risk in those situations. Right? Take your guy defensively, and only take risks when you get a good opportunity. This is an issue he had when we brought him over, and it hasn’t improved much if not getting a bit worse. It’s what he must work at in HFD, and it’s not something that you pick up over night. He should be down there the full season, if not longer.
4. What can we expect offensively? We have the environment in 1, what Lias does well in 2, and what he doesn’t do well in 3, so the result is predictable. And it won’t be close to a PPG. Not unless he really starts getting pts on the PP. and HFDs PP is pretty awful at the moment.
Why is that? (a) I should be doing some video on these things, it would be so easy to show like 5-10 situations in a game where Lias makes good heady plays with the puck — and nothing amounts from it. Whomever who gets the pass just throws it away. (b) He isn’t scoring many of those pts where his team backs down and then a puck is sent bouncing in the air and a player picks it up and rush down the ice. That is a big source of offense in the AHL, and it’s something Lias is below average at (his biggest flaw). This is not an excuse, it’s an observation of a flaw that holds him back both in the AHL and the NHL. At the same time, I don’t agree with the ‘he doesn’t have any skill at all’ notion. They are different things. (a) Illustrates why he can’t be a PPG player in the AHL based on his strengths alone, and (b) why there isn’t much of a cushion in terms of getting pts.
My prediction for him is give or take 0.5 PPG and the pts in that context can be streaky. I wouldn’t be surprised if he played 5 games in a row with zero pts and then got like 7 in 10 maybe.
5. What can improve? CAN anything improve? By spending a lot of time in the AHL, he will get a bigger role, his teammates will make sure he gets the puck more often because it will pay off, all these things will lead to a positive curve. More puck, more confidence, and especially eventually more training in areas that he needs to improve in game situations.
So there is certainly a bit of an improvement coming ahead.
6. What will the end product be? I still think that there is reason to be optimistic, besides the reasons for concern. But we must be patient and give him time.
*Joey Keane is getting good stats in HFD, but especially last night he was a total mess in terms of screw ups. Gave away two break aways, made many bad passes. KK is really patient with him.
*Fogarty should be next in line for a call up. Tempo in his skating is an issue — but he got good top speed when he gets going, he is strong, he definitely got some hidden offense and is quite nifty with his hands.
*HFD had a great start, but they haven’t played good hockey at any time this season. Just check the scores and shots or whatever during the streak they had. Goaltending and a very solid team effort — kudos to KK — got them pts.