Prospect Info: Hartford Wolf Pack (AHL)/Maine Mariners (ECHL) Thread *Part X*

[ManUtdTobbe]

I'm not just atlking about fancy stats though, i've watched plenty of Gilmour games over the last 2 seasons, both in HFD and NYR and i've talked in specifics about his game and backed that up by the f***ing numbers, so get off your high dumb horse. And no, i haven't shit all over Hajek (and definitely not Lindgren), i just gave my view of how Hajek played in Hartford and he wasn't good. Never once did i say he was a bad prospect because of it, i made sure to Always add context into it.

Why not push his fantastic AHL stats? Fantastic AHL stats more often then not translate into better then replacement level NHL stats. Oh also, Gilmour has FANTASTIC underlying metrics in the AHL aswell, or "fancy stats" as you, Mr Ignorant calls them.

 

[RGY]

Never said you criticized Lindgren nor did I claim you said Hajek was a bad prospect. Please read a little better it would help. You did crap on Hajek’s play and you didn’t think he warranted the call up. Point was maybe the numbers, his play at the AHL level which is a circus at times, didnt tell the whole story. And maybe that mayhem open style play allows for a player like Gilmour to flourish there

I also said i respect advanced stats. His advanced stats for possession are average at the NHL level in a 28 game sample size. Thats more than a quarter of a season.

His 82 game average would have been 15 points last season. Nothing to write home about. But his 82 game average for Giveaways was projected at 85. That would be Top 15 worst in the league this year.

Glad youve watched Gilmour at the AHL level all season. Congrats. But you are making. Shit. Up. Claiming that his AHL level stat production is indicative of being better than replacement level at the NHL. Thats a complete and utter guess. There have been plenty of fantastic AHL player who could never hack it at the NHL. Plenty.

The guy is 25 YEARS OLD. 25. When are those “fantastic” underlying stats at the AHL level going to translate? He got his look at 24 last year. 28 games is MORE THAN ENOUGH TIME. He was average offensively and he was PUTRID defensively. If he was 20 years old sure you wait him out longer. But next year he will just be another year older at 26, staring down the downward swing of his career....at least at the NHL level.

As someone else said, his best bet is playing overseas. His defense wont cut it in the NHL. Because if someone felt that way, inside the Rangers organization or outside, he would be up in the NHL level right now given how “fantastic” he has been.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Whatever you say buddy, i think you're wrong in pretty much every way here but i'm just too tired to even read through your posts so you do you.

Btw, giveaways is perhaps the most useless stat that's tracked in the NHL, even worse then +/-, when a D-man dumps the puck out of the zone via the boards and it ends up on the opponents stick in the NZ it doesn't count as a giveaway most of the time.

 

[Joey Bones]

FWIW when I saw the Hartford game in Springfield the other day, Gilmour was everywhere on the ice making plays. I agree he's not the best defensively, but for a offensive mobile defenseman he's not bad at the defensive side. He definitely deserves another shot in the NHL....

 

[nyr2k2]

Gilmours rate stats both 5v5 and on the PP from the NHL last year were sky high, small sample but a good indicator that his offense does translate.

Gilmour is much better offensively then Pionk and miles better in transition

Not really concerned with his fancy stats over 25 NHL games after the TDL.

Otherwise, we're clearly watching a doffdiffe player, so IDK what to say.

 

[RGY]

FWIW when I saw the Hartford game in Springfield the other day, Gilmour was everywhere on the ice making plays. I agree he's not the best defensively, but for a offensive mobile defenseman he's not bad at the defensive side. He definitely deserves another shot in the NHL....

Thats great. But that is at the AHL level. So sure maybe he should get another look. But he is goinf to be 26 soon. His clock is already running past due to make the jump and establish himself. Let him get his shot elsewhere.

I’ll say it over and over again (not necessarily directed at you @Joey Bones) if his stats and play were that through the roof fantastic at the AHL level, he would have gotten a look with the Rangers as many others have. Hajek went down and they couldve called up Gilmour to replace him. They didnt. They went with Claesson instead....says a lot about what NHL minds think of him

 

[nyr2k2]

FWIW when I saw the Hartford game in Springfield the other day, Gilmour was everywhere on the ice making plays. I agree he's not the best defensively, but for a offensive mobile defenseman he's not bad at the defensive side. He definitely deserves another shot in the NHL....

Isn't it really up to NHL clubs to determine if he deserves another shot? It seems odd that Calgary wouldn't even give the guy a contract, we then give him a contract and 25 games, but follow that up by ignoring him completely during a rebuilding year.

There may be something there that NHL talent evaluators aren't keen on. Who knows. He'll be UFA so I guess we find out.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Not really concerned with his fancy stats over 25 NHL games after the TDL.

Otherwise, we're clearly watching a doffdiffe player, so IDK what to say.

Doffdiffe?

Rate stats aren’t fancy stats, it’s just points divided by ice time.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Appealing to authority now, because NHL teams never make mistakes *shrug*

 

[kovazub94]

I don’t know how people can watch Gilmour and say his defense is fine. I usually don’t go with hyperbole so when I say that Gilmour is Ulanov level bad I mean it literally. You can use an argument that he’s an offensive defenseman and good outweighs the bad but in this specific case I don’t buy it.

And “appealing to authority” contra-argument doesn’t fly here either. A single NHL organization might make wrong determination and even then it’s a particular isolated decision not across the board. Look where all these fringe hockey players are that for some reason certain posters got infatuated with.

 

[nyr2k2]

Doffdiffe?

Rate stats aren’t fancy stats, it’s just points divided by ice time.

Sorry, it's my GBoard app, sometimes I choose a suggestion and it butchers the word. What I was going for was "different."

As far as the rate stats, you didn't specify so I didn't know. Could have been CF/60 or xGF/60 or something.

Appealing to authority now, because NHL teams never make mistakes *shrug*

NHL teams make mistakes all the time. Internet posters make mistakes all the time. NHL teams have access to the same information that all us dorks looking at Natural Stat Trick can access. They have access to lots more and likely more advanced statistics than we do. So it's not an appeal to authority, it's just an acknowledgement that I have slightly more faith in NHL front offices than I do in random people across the internet, unless those random internet people have a proven record of being particularly prescient or unusually strong talent evaluators.

I mean, Gilmour could be an NHL-caliber player and make it as soon as next year. Maybe Calgary was wrong, maybe the Rangers are wrong. We'll see.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Ah gotcha... No, in this instance i just meant P/60 and P1/60 both 5v5 and on the PP. Though his CF% and xGF% was good in the NHL too and amazing in the AHL

And yes, the teams have access to all the stats We have and more, but most of the FOs are clearly not using them much, though it’s coming along slowly.

 

[RGY]

So 31 NHL teams are making a mistake? If Gilmour was as fantastic as being made out to be, then some team wouldve offered a low round pick for him to get him their system as a possible call up as well as exclusive negotiating rights to extend him.

There is clearly something there (his defense) that is preventing him from being an NHL player. He got 28 NHL games last year. Pionk also got the same look. Why is one in the NHL and not the other? Yes Pionk has his flaws and I am not a fan, but he has at least more structure and reliablity as a DEFENSEMAN in his own end. It was a war zone when Gilmour was out there. They got the same look and the Rangers decided to cut Gilmour this year and then never recall him.

Again Gilmour’s career is better suited overseas or as a forward which he may still be able to switch to at age 25

 

[nyr2k2]

Ah gotcha... No, in this instance i just meant P/60 and P1/60 both 5v5 and on the PP. Though his CF% and xGF% was good in the NHL too and amazing in the AHL

And yes, the teams have access to all the stats We have and more, but most of the FOs are clearly not using them much, though it’s coming along slowly.

And just to be totally clear, I very much respect your assessments and analysis. When I talk about "some random Internet guy" I'm really talking about pretty much everyone here, myself included.

 

[Joey Bones]

Thats great. But that is at the AHL level. So sure maybe he should get another look. But he is goinf to be 26 soon. His clock is already running past due to make the jump and establish himself. Let him get his shot elsewhere.

I’ll say it over and over again (not necessarily directed at you @Joey Bones) if his stats and play were that through the roof fantastic at the AHL level, he would have gotten a look with the Rangers as many others have. Hajek went down and they couldve called up Gilmour to replace him. They didnt. They went with Claesson instead....says a lot about what NHL minds think of him

Not saying his other chance is with the Rangers. Seems as though the Rangers sealed his fate already. What I mean is that he deserves to get a chance somewhere. I mean he's 25 so time isn't on his side, but he's one of the fastest skaters in the minors and can definitely compete at the NHL level. IIRC, he recorded 14.4 time for the AHL skills competition fastest skater so he's no slouch. We'll see....

 

[Joey Bones]

Isn't it really up to NHL clubs to determine if he deserves another shot? It seems odd that Calgary wouldn't even give the guy a contract, we then give him a contract and 25 games, but follow that up by ignoring him completely during a rebuilding year.

There may be something there that NHL talent evaluators aren't keen on. Who knows. He'll be UFA so I guess we find out.

Yeah, like I said in the rebuttal to @RGY it seems like the Rangers have sealed Gilmour's fate. I'm saying he deserves a chance in the NHL as a whole, meaning a different team.

 

[RGY]

Not saying his other chance is with the Rangers. Seems as though the Rangers sealed his fate already. What I mean is that he deserves to get a chance somewhere. I mean he's 25 so time isn't on his side, but he's one of the fastest skaters in the minors and can definitely compete at the NHL level. IIRC, he recorded 14.4 time for the AHL skills competition fastest skater so he's no slouch. We'll see....

I mean the speed means absolutely nothing to me when he cant play defense. He isnt a forward so he has to have some level of defensive responsibility. Some defensive ability. He was a mess in his own end last year. Looked like pick up level hockey defense. The concern for him his he will be entering his age 26 season next year coming off a year where be couldnt crack a Rangers team that was not very good. Where do you go from there. He should try forward. Maybe he has a shot then to catch on somewhere as a 4th liner

 

[Joey Bones]

I mean the speed means absolutely nothing to me when he cant play defense. He isnt a forward so he has to have some level of defensive responsibility. Some defensive ability. He was a mess in his own end last year. Looked like pick up level hockey defense. The concern for him his he will be entering his age 26 season next year coming off a year where be couldnt crack a Rangers team that was not very good. Where do you go from there. He should try forward. Maybe he has a shot then to catch on somewhere as a 4th liner

I mean if the team he ends up with gives him a chance a forward. Not many teams will experiment with that. Anything can happen within a year of development, albeit a short one for Gilmour's case. He hasn't looked brutal defensively this year. Last year, absolutely....

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

I’m not sure what the question was, all I know is that answer is not Gilmour. We have to elevate our taste in D.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

I’m not sure what the question was, all I know is that answer is not Gilmour. We have to elevate our taste in D.

Ik this is ot but how did you somehow make your pfp someone even worse then your last pfp

 

[RGY]

I mean if the team he ends up with gives him a chance a forward. Not many teams will experiment with that. Anything can happen within a year of development, albeit a short one for Gilmour's case. He hasn't looked brutal defensively this year. Last year, absolutely....

He also playing at the AHL level. So I would seriously hope it hasnt been “brutal”. But throughout the season i have seen comments periodically during/after games where he made yet another egregious mistake.

Bottom line is his window for an NHL career is closing fast. There is a reason why he hasnt been given a chance. The Rangers organization isnt out to get him. They signed him after Calgary gave up on him. They gave him a contract and 28 games last year. New coach this year who is known for being a great communicator and developing young players and yet Gilmour hasnt been promoted. Its not hard to connect the dots

 

[UnSandvich]

So 31 NHL teams are making a mistake? If Gilmour was as fantastic as being made out to be, then some team wouldve offered a low round pick for him to get him their system as a possible call up as well as exclusive negotiating rights to extend him.

There is clearly something there (his defense) that is preventing him from being an NHL player. He got 28 NHL games last year. Pionk also got the same look. Why is one in the NHL and not the other? Yes Pionk has his flaws and I am not a fan, but he has at least more structure and reliablity as a DEFENSEMAN in his own end. It was a war zone when Gilmour was out there. They got the same look and the Rangers decided to cut Gilmour this year and then never recall him.

Again Gilmour’s career is better suited overseas or as a forward which he may still be able to switch to at age 25

29 teams passed on Henrik Lundqvist. Or look at guys like Marty St Louis. Teams make mistakes mate. And players improve

 

[nyr2k2]

29 teams passed on Henrik Lundqvist. Or look at guys like Marty St Louis. Teams make mistakes mate. And players improve

This is true, but you're talking about guys 18-20. Gilmour WAS drafted and Calgary opted not to offer him a contract. Now there's a good chance he leaves here after two years and signs a new deal at 26. Gilmour wasn't some overlooked talent. Teams knew who he was and definitely know who he is now. He's not some teenaged goalie in Europe or undersized NCAA free agent who wasn't even that good until a few years in the league (age 26 or so--ha).

Anyway, I hear you. Teams do make mistakes. I can't really think of many guys like Gilmour, though, who make it at 26 after never really having much of a shot in the NHL. Of course they exist, like PA Parenteau. They're just really, really few and far between.

 

[RGY]

29 teams passed on Henrik Lundqvist. Or look at guys like Marty St Louis. Teams make mistakes mate. And players improve

2k2 already beat me to it.

This point is null and void because you are trying to compare drafting an 18 year old to a guy who will be 26 years old in May.

His window is closing.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

His window might be closing, but all he needs is an NHL coach that believe in him because he’s an NHL calibre player right now which he’s showed over the last two seasons.