Hart Trophy Talk: MacKinnon, Malkin, Kucherov the Early Favorites, Scoring at Highest Rates By Far.

[Meeqs]

What better way is there to figure out what the voters will do than to look at what they have done?

Analyze each players current season and pick the one with the best case.

 

[Meeqs]

want a better one, Anze Kopitar

Kopi is having a great season, as are many other players but he hasn't been better than Mackinnon or Hall. I'm not sure how you could find any non biased support for that claim.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

It is not as simple as more TOI = more points.

The correlation is very strong.

 

[cgf]

Analyze each players current season and pick the one with the best case.

How do you know who has the best case unless you know the criteria by which their cases are judged?

 

[Meeqs]

How do you know who has the best case unless you know the criteria by which the voters judge their cases?

The basic definition of what the award is. Do you see why this is so silly and poor supporting evidence?

 

[cgf]

The basic definition of what the award is. Do you see why this is so silly and poor supporting evidence?

Why does the definition of the award matter? If that definition conflicts with how the voters vote then who cares about the definition?

I see how silly what you are saying is, but do you?

 

[Meeqs]

Why does the definition of the award matter? If that definition conflicts with how the voters vote then who cares about the definition?

I see how silly what you are saying is, but do you?

Because you will never factually know how the voters vote. Its not obtainable or analyzable information. Just personal speculation which isn't evidence. It also adds nothing to the conversation. It would just be a circumstantial coincidence.

Is it likely that the player who is the best candidate for MVP is also a top candidate for other Trophies, sure. Does saying a player needs to be top 5 in scoring to win MVP make any sense, no. You could have the top 10 players be within 5 points of each other but any of them could have another reason to stand out from the other. Its silly.

We have more than enough stats to make solid cases for why a player is deserving of MVP without having to go into the psychology of the perceived voters.

 

[hockeykicker]

No ovechkin? He has 20 more goals then the nearest forward on his team and 24 more points then the second forward on his team

Yet Malkin has Crosby and kessel at 70 points plus

Don't get me wrong, I have no issue with Malkin winning but I just don't get how a player on a team with 3 70 point players goes above a guy like ovechkin right now

 

[cgf]

Because you will never factually know how the voters vote. Its not obtainable or analyzable information. Just personal speculation which isn't evidence. It also adds nothing to the conversation. It would just be a circumstantial coincidence.

Is it likely that the player who is the best candidate for MVP is also a top candidate for other Trophies, sure. Does saying a player needs to be top 5 in scoring to win MVP make any sense, no. You could have the top 10 players be within 5 points of each other but any of them could have another reason to stand out from the other. Its silly.

We have more than enough stats to make solid cases for why a player is deserving of MVP without having to go into the psychology of the perceived voters.

But none of those stats matter as much as the way the voters vote. The only reason to bring them up is with regards to how the voters will view them

 

[Meeqs]

But none of those stats matter as much as the way the voters vote. The only reason to bring them up is with regards to how the voters will view them

This is nonsense talk

 

[daver]

The correlation is very strong.

Not in McDavid's case, unless you want to argue he was just as effective as a rookie as he is this year as their pts/60 are the same.

 

[cgf]

This is nonsense talk

Looking at what actually determines who gets the trophy makes more sense than just talking about stats without any context

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

No ovechkin? He has 20 more goals then the nearest forward on his team and 24 more points then the second forward on his team

Yet Malkin has Crosby and kessel at 70 points plus

Don't get me wrong, I have no issue with Malkin winning but I just don't get how a player on a team with 3 70 point players goes above a guy like ovechkin right now

Yes. No ovechkin

 

[TopT]

Kopi is having a great season, as are many other players but he hasn't been better than Mackinnon or Hall. I'm not sure how you could find any non biased support for that claim.

tell me, why was Hall better ? a 2 way center that is just as good offensively vs an offensive winger

 

[EroCaps]

If history is any indicator, Ovechkin should be a finalist, if not win the Hart. He's having his best season in years.

 

[PensandCaps]

If history is any indicator, Ovechkin should be a finalist, if not win the Hart. He's having his best season in years.

3rd best Russian this year. So, no.

 

[hockeyguy1967]

The NHL scoring race this year has been so volatile that it seems every few games the rankings shift dramatically behind the current points leader. Taylor Hall, Johnny Gaudreau, Connor McDavid, Blake Wheeler, Claude Giroux, Alex Ovechkin, and Anze Kopitar are among the players all leading their teams in scoring and in hot pursuit of the points scoring lead. However, three players at the top of the scoring race are clearly distinct from the rest of the pack: Nathan MacKinnon, Evgeni Malkin, and Nikita Kucherov. Their rates of production are so much higher than everybody else's, and their efficiency with ice time is unparalleled this year. This leads me to believe that they are the early favorites for the Hart Trophy, as through 60+ games they have been the three best skaters in the NHL.

These three players not only lead the entire NHL by far in terms of points per game, but also by points per 60 -- this means that they score more points than anybody else per game, and also score at a higher rate per minute of ice time than anybody else in the league. In terms of points production, these three players are by far the most efficient, and they happen to, as of March 2, 2018, rank first, second, and fourth in the NHL points race. Brad Marchand ranks fourth in these two categories, but is far behind in the actual scoring race with just 60 points as of today. The other player worth mentioning is Taylor Hall, who ranks fifth and seventh, respectively, on these lists. He currenly ranks 11th in NHL scoring.

There will obviously be much talk about which players deserve to be nominated for the Hart Trophy this season. In terms of production alone, these three players are ahead of the pack. In terms of their performances within the context of their team's season, all three teams could be playoff-bound: Kucherov is having the most success on a team with other high-end scorers, while Malkin's team is also laden with veteran talent and in a comfortable playoff position; the player with the greatest influence on his team's chances is Nathan MacKinnon, whose Colorado Avalanche squad is on the cusp of making the playoffs after a disastrous 2016-17 season. Without MacKinnon, the Avalanche might not be in this close race for a playoff berth, and from a talent perspective they do not command anywhere near as much respect as Malkin or Kucherov's teams. The Penguins (Crosby, 69 points) and Lightning (Stamkos, 72 points) both have other players within ten points of their respective teams' scoring leaders. There is a slightly wider gap between MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen of 13 points.

With fewer than 20 games remaining in the season, it is possible that any of these three players will be the NHL scoring leader at the end of the season. Malkin (78 points) is four points behind Nikita Kucherov (82 points); Nathan MacKinnon (76 points) is six points behind the leader. Kucherov is currently injured. Connor McDavid, who would otherwise be a potential candidate with 77 points currently, ranks well bellow these three in terms of points per 60 -- 15th, in fact -- due to the nearly two minutes of extra TOI he receives per game than them (an average of 21:25 vs 19:57 for Kucherov, 19:28 for MacKinnon, and 18:57 for Malkin); he also ranks only fifth in points per game, and his team currently ranks 27th out of 31 in the NHL. McDavid is not a Hart Trophy candidate this season.

The wildcard, as mentioned, is Taylor Hall. He is the fifth-most efficient player in terms of points per game, seventh-most efficient in terms of points per 60, and is eleventh in NHL scoring with 70 points, 12 behind the leader. However, his team is in a playoff spot, and the gap between him and the second-highest scorer on the New Jersey Devils is 29 points (Hischier, 41 points). Hall is currently on a 23-game personal points streak. Blake Wheeler has, to a lesser extent, been at the forefront of his team's successful season with 73 points while the second-highest scorer on the Jets, Patrik Laine, has 55; the Jets are fifth in the NHL overall standings -- at this point in time, there are clearly four players ahead of him in terms of performance this season, so he would need to elevate his game further to be regarded as a potential finalist.

The scoring race remains volatile, but the four most effective scorers in the league are quite evident this season: Nathan MacKinnon, Evgeni Malkin, Nikita Kucherov, and Taylor Hall.

While the final result of the Art Ross Trophy race might be just as unpredictable, the Hart Trophy race is becoming clearer with each passing day with early favorites already obvious.

P/60 is terrible stat to use unless you are doing even strength only as it favors guys who do not play any pk.

 

[TCL40]

Bergeron is my pick.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

P/60 is terrible stat to use unless you are doing even strength only as it favors guys who do not play any pk.

Perhaps players who play more than others are more likely to be fatigued and thus have more difficulty as the season progresses. McDavid has to skate an extra two minutes per game compared to other players.

P/60 is useful for predicting production. It isn't as useful a resource in an analysis of completed seasons. The season is not finished, so P/60 becomes valuable in assessing early favorites.

The Hart Trophy skater nominees are nearly always the top-scoring players in the league whose teams are at least in the postseason. Through 60 games, Kucherov, MacKinnon, and Malkin are outpacing everyone by a wide margin by two different measurement standards.

The last Art Ross Trophy winner not to be a Hart Trophy finalist was Jamie Benn in 2014-15. He won the Art Ross Trophy, but finished 12th in Hart Trophy voting. The Dallas Stars finished 7 points behind the final wildcard position in the Western Conference. He received five fourth-placed votes, and eight fifth-placed votes -- no Top 3 votes.

Prior to that, Martin St. Louis won the Art Ross Trophy in 2012-13, but finished ninth in Hart Trophy voting. The Tampa Bay Lightning finished fifteen points behind the final playoff position in the Eastern Conference.

To be a legitimate contender for the Hart Trophy, one's team needs to be in the playoffs. At that point, leading the league in scoring is a major factor; if that is close, then team circumstances are another major consideration.

If Taylor Hall closes the gap between himself and the leaders, his likelihood of becoming a Hart Trophy finalist will increase substantially. Kucherov recorded another 3 points tonight and now has 85 points -- a 15-point lead over Hall. MacKinnon's story with the Avalanche after last season should make him a finalist as well if his pace continues. Evgeni Malkin, if his gap over Hall remains significant, will probably receive more votes for the Hall. Hall has the circumstances, but he just doesn't have enough points yet to match the historical precedent. That could change, as Malkin neither has the same importance to his team as MacKinnon nor any sort of significant difference in point production to separate himself from Kucherov or MacKinnon; if Hall closes the gap too, he will very likely overtake Malkin as a favorite to be named a Hart Trophy finalist.

The Hart Trophy prediction is as simple as predicting who the top NHL scorers will be, and then deciding if the value of each player's points lead outweighs the value of their performance within their team's context. The Professional Hockey Writers Association, comprised of all of the media members that fans love to complain about, are the NHL awards voters. Larry Brooks, for example, is a PWHA member and an NHL awards voter.

Every NHL market has its own PWHA branch; there are also Lifetime and International branches.

The International branch, for example, features these names, all of whom are NHL awards voters:

http://www.thephwa.com/page/show/1103079-phwa-international-chapter

PHWA International Chapter

Chapter Chair
Craig Custance, The Athletic, 2007, @CraigCustance

Members
Ken Campbell, The Hockey News, 1988, @THNKenCampbell
Damien Cox, Toronto Star, 1989, @DamoSpin
Bob Duff, HockeyBuzz, 1991, @asktheduffer
Roy MacGregor, Globe and Mail, 1992, @RoyMacG
Tim Wharnsby, cbcsports.ca, 1993, @TimWharnsby
Pierre LeBrun, The Athletic / TSN, 1995, @Real_ESPNLeBrun
Jason Kay, The Hockey News, 2001, @JKTHN
Shane Malloy, NHL Home Ice, 2002, @ShaneMalloy
Adam Proteau, 2002, @Proteautype
Chris Johnston, Sportsnet, 2004, @reporterchris (Executive Vice President)
Gunnar Nordstrom, Expressen, 2006, @NordstromGunnar
Russ Cohen, Center Ice Magazine, 2007, @sportsology
Frank Seravalli, TSN, 2007, @frank_seravalli (Executive Vice President)
Greg Wyshynski, ESPN.com, 2008, @wyshynski
Katie Strang, The Athletic, 2009, @KatieJStrang
Sarah Kwak, Sports Illustrated, 2009, @SI_sarahkwak
Ryan Dixon, Sportsnet, 2010, @Dixononsports
Stephen Whyno, Associated Press, 2010, @SWhyno
Bob McKenzie, TSN, 2011, @TSNBobMcKenzie
Ryan Kennedy, The Hockey News, 2011, @THNRyanKennedy
Elliotte Friedman, Sportsnet, 2011, @FriedgeHNIC
Juha Hiitela, Ilta-Sanomat, 2011, @jhiitela
Bruce Arthur, Toronto Star, 2011, @bruce_arthur
Katie Baker, The Ringer, 2012, @katiebakes
Neil Greenberg, Washington Post, 2012, @ngreenberg
Corey Pronman, The Athletic, 2013, @coreypronman
Darryl Dobbs, DobberSports.com, 2013, @DobberHockey
Sean McIndoe, Sportsnet, 2013, @DownGoesBrown
Justin Bourne, The Athletic, 2013, @jtbourne
Sean Leahy, NBC Sports, 2013, @Sean_Leahy
Travis Hughes, SB Nation, 2014, @TravisSBN
Dave Lozo, Bleacher Report, 2014, @DaveLozo
Luke Fox, Sportsnet, 2014, @lukefoxjukebox
Alex Prewitt, Sports Illustrated, 2014, @alex_prewitt
Matt Larkin, The Hockey News, 2014, @THNMattLarkin
Rob Vollman, Hockey Abstract, 2014, @robvollmanNHL
Chris Peters, ESPN.com 2015, @chrismpeters
Stephen Laroche, Beckett Hockey, 2015, @Stephen_Laroche
Sami Hoffren, Ilta-Sanomat, 2015, @shoffren
Jen Neale, 2015, @MsJenNeale
Al Muir, Sports Illustrated, 2015, @almuirSI
Steve Dryden, TSN, 2016, @TSNquizmaster
Mike Augello, Hockeybuzz, 2016, @MikeInBuffalo
Jared Clinton, The Hockey News, 2016, @THNJaredClinton
Scott Wheeler, The Athletic, 2017, @scottcwheeler
Emily Kaplan, ESPN.com, 2017, @emilymkaplan

One only needs to look at Twitter to view the opinions of many of the voters. The names that appear to be brought up often are Hall, MacKinnon, and Kucherov. Malkin needs to keep his lead over Hall to be a likely finalist.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Ovechkin will be a guaranteed finalist if he wins the rocket and is top 10 in pts. Lol @ anyone putting Malkin ahead of him as the MVP. You can't be the MVP of the league when you aren't even the main guy on your own team. And besides, all we heard from pens fans for the first half of the season was how Kessel was their MVP and how he's so underrated.. So 20 games ago Malkin wasn't even the MVP of his own team, but now he's MVP of the league? Nice joke.

Kucherov, Ovechkin and MacK will be the finalists.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

3rd best Russian this year. So, no.

That's highly debatable. But it's irrelevant anyway, there's a difference between best and most valuable. OV doesn't have 2 PPG forwards like Malkin does or a top 5 pts guy like Kucherov does. He's way more valuable to his team.

 

[Devils090]

1. MacK
2. Hall
3. Bergeron

Kucherov plays on the best team in the league and is surrounded by tons of talent. Nothing against him but the Lightning would still be a playoff team without him.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Ovechkin will be a guaranteed finalist if he wins the rocket and is top 10 in pts. Lol @ anyone putting Malkin ahead of him as the MVP. You can't be the MVP of the league when you aren't even the main guy on your own team. And besides, all we heard from pens fans for the first half of the season was how Kessel was their MVP and how he's so underrated.. So 20 games ago Malkin wasn't even the MVP of his own team, but now he's MVP of the league? Nice joke.

Kucherov, Ovechkin and MacK will be the finalists.

That's all fine And dandy. But don't come around claiming ov was better than evgeni this year if that happens. Malkin Is clearly the better player. Shades of 12-13 happening.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

That's highly debatable. But it's irrelevant anyway, there's a difference between best and most valuable. OV doesn't have 2 PPG forwards like Malkin does or a top 5 pts guy like Kucherov does. He's way more valuable to his team.

Lmao it is not debatable at all.,, just be happy ovechkin is actually a ppg player this year....

 

[daver]

Perhaps players who play more than others are more likely to be fatigued and thus have more difficulty as the season progresses. McDavid has to skate an extra two minutes per game compared to other players.

P/60 is useful for predicting production. It isn't as useful a resource in an analysis of completed seasons. The season is not finished, so P/60 becomes valuable in assessing early favorites.

I am really confused? I thought P/60 were supposed to be an indicator of how effective a player was with their icetime not an indicator that thru 60 games, X player is going to be more tired. And you cannot look at a list of pts/60 and pick out who gets more icetime than others so that really doesn't make any sense to begin with.

By your logic, last year at the same time, McDavid would have been a the lower end of Hart favourites, given he was down the list in pts/60 vs. the other PPG leaders.