Hart Trophy Talk: MacKinnon, Malkin, Kucherov the Early Favorites, Scoring at Highest Rates By Far.

[daver]

Well first of all Oilers have the lowest PP in the league s, so when pp 60 is calculated it's not a fair indicator when pp min are added in , it's also very hard to get a PP hot when you get one or 2 chances for half the games in the season Oilers have had over 2 once in last 10 games. Now McDavid has 62 Points at even strength or worse number 1 in the League he has also had Lucic goalless and 2 points in his last 27 games on his wing along with the likes of Slepyshev 5 goals this season and Caggiula . and with all this his sits 3rd in scoring . So don't be surprised if the he wins the Lindsay again . And also again power plays players are at a advantage and many elements go into what makes a good one. Look at Oilers pointmen totals on PP lol. I judge players how they produce on a even playing field PP are not that.

All these argument can point to him having an inflated PP points last year but he still won the Lindsay because he had the most points and the highest PPG. I don't think the players give a shit that there team won or lost because of PP points, it's a win or a loss.

 

[VainGretzky]

All these argument can point to him having an inflated PP points last year but he still won the Lindsay because he had the most points and the highest PPG. I don't think the players give a **** that there team won or lost because of PP points, it's a win or a loss.

Since 2000 Sakic Iginla Naslund Jagr Ovie 2 years in a row Over Malkin and Sedin who had best PPG and others and Crosby all won it without winning scoring race And I left out Price so no the Hart does not go hand in hand ,

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Since 2000 Sakic Iginla Naslund Jagr Ovie 2 years in a row Over Malkin and Sedin who had best PPG and others and Crosby all won it without winning scoring race And I left out Price so no the Hart does not go hand in hand ,

Each of the names you mentioned were Hart Trophy finalists at the end of those seasons. Their teams also qualified for the postseason, the only exception being Iginla in 2001-02.

If being an obvious Hart Trophy finalist is at least one of the criteria, then McDavid will be on the outside looking in for the Ted Linsday Award.

 

[daver]

Since 2000 Sakic Iginla Naslund Jagr Ovie 2 years in a row Over Malkin and Sedin who had best PPG and others and Crosby all won it without winning scoring race And I left out Price so no the Hart does not go hand in hand ,

I already said that usually the Lindsay winner is 2nd in Hart voting at worst. That applies to all these players you mentioned. McDavid is not going to win the Lindsay unless he wins the Art, and maybe not even then. Crosby won in 2013 because it was clear he was the best player on a per game basis. This would give someone like McKinnon an edge on McDavid. Goalscoring is also likely to give a player an edge rather than ES scoring.

 

[daver]

I see -- you're arguing that McDavid is as good, or better, a player as the others and that the situation he is in is the reason for his bloated TOI and low points/60. Your discussion is about the player quality, not the degree to which he deserves the Hart Trophy.

This is a discussion about the Hart Trophy, the award for the most valuable player in the NHL.

The fact that McDavid plays for the 27th-placed Edmonton Oilers is baked right in to the points/60 metric, which makes it valuable in assessing the player's worthiness of the Hart Trophy.

You original point was pts/60 identifies the more effective player, not that a player is as good as another but plays on a worse team.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

You original point was pts/60 identifies the more effective player, not that a player is as good as another but plays on a worse team.

One can be more effective than another partially due to the situation he is in. That is an undeniable factor. Effectiveness was never defined as being a player's ability in a vacuum.

I have explained the rationale behind why points/60 is important in assessing Hart Trophy worthiness, which was the topic of your initial response.

 

[daver]

One can be more effective than another partially due to the situation he is in. That is an undeniable factor. Effectiveness was never defined as being a player's ability in a vacuum.

I have explained the rationale behind why points/60 is important in assessing Hart Trophy worthiness, which was the topic of your initial response.

I don't see how you can use this at all as a measurement of effectiveness if different situations cannot be accounted for. Then you are dealing with hypothetical situations. Their point totals speak for themselves, not pts/60.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

I don't see how you can use this at all as a measurement of effectiveness if different situations cannot be accounted for. Then you are dealing with hypothetical situations. Their point totals speak for themselves, not pts/60.

Effectiveness is more precisely measured when TOI is considered than by gauging based off of raw point totals -- by definition, there is more information about players' situations available if one considers TOI than if they were to ignore it altogether. In fact, no context can be derived from raw points totals, whereas one can at least understand one's scoring rate with points/60. TOI is a useful resource, especially in conjunction with the position of a player's team in the standings. One can develop a much deeper understanding of a player's season with these figures than by referring to raw point totals alone. Points/GP is another meaningful statistic. The same additional layers of contextual information used to decipher raw points totals can be applied to fortify one's interpretation of points/60 and points/GP.

Three of the top four leading scorers in the NHL are the top-three ranked players in points/60 and points/GP. One of those four leading scorers is not atop both lists, and one could easily argue that he is the least deserving of those four of a Hart Trophy nomination.

That is no coincidence.

Since the NHL started tracking points/60, 11 out of the 21 Hart Trophy finalists who were skaters have finished in the Top 5 of the points/60 rankings. Four of them won the Hart Trophy. Some other Top 5-ranked points/60 players simply did not play enough games to be in consideration for the Hart Trophy (for example, Malkin last season with 72 points in 62 GP and by far the highest points/60; Datsyuk's 2014-15 season with 63 GP; Malkin in 2013-14 with 60 GP).

2009-10: H. Sedin (winner) [#3 p/60], Ovechkin (runner-up) [#2 p/60], Crosby (third) [#5 p/60]
2010-11: D. Sedin (runner-up) [#2 p/60], St. Louis (third) [#5 p/60]
2011-12: Malkin (winner) [#1 p/60]
2012-13: Crosby (runner-up) [#1 p/60]
2013-14: Crosby (winner) [#2 p/60]
2014-15: --------
2015-16: Kane (winner) [#1 p/60], Benn (third) [#4 p/60]
2016-17: Crosby (runner-up) [#2 p/60]

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

McDavid plays on the PK while Malkin, Mackinnon, and Kucherov don't.

P/60 is completely irrelevant here.

 

[SFKingshomer]

Eric Staal, Kopitar, and Barkov have carried their teams all season and either one would get my vote for Hart.

 

[jbobell98]

The NHL scoring race this year has been so volatile that it seems every few games the rankings shift dramatically behind the current points leader. Taylor Hall, Johnny Gaudreau, Connor McDavid, Blake Wheeler, Claude Giroux, Alex Ovechkin, and Anze Kopitar are among the players all leading their teams in scoring and in hot pursuit of the points scoring lead. However, three players at the top of the scoring race are clearly distinct from the rest of the pack: Nathan MacKinnon, Evgeni Malkin, and Nikita Kucherov.

These three players not only lead the entire NHL by far in terms of points per game, but also by points per 60 -- this means that they score more points than anybody else per game, and also score at a higher rate per minute of ice time than anybody else in the league. In terms of points production, these three players are by far the most efficient, and they happen to, as of March 2, 2018, rank first, second, and fourth in the NHL points race. Brad Marchand ranks fourth in these two categories, but is far behind in the actual scoring race with just 60 points as of today. The other player worth mentioning is Taylor Hall, who ranks fifth and seventh, respectively, on these lists. He currenly ranks 11th in NHL scoring.

There will obviously be much talk about which players deserve to be nominated for the Hart Trophy this season. In terms of production alone, these three players are ahead of the pack. In terms of their performances within the context of their team's season, all three teams could be playoff-bound: Kucherov is having the most success on a team with other high-end scorers, while Malkin's team is also laden with veteran talent and in a comfortable playoff position; the player with the greatest influence on his team's chances is Nathan MacKinnon, whose Colorado Avalanche squad is on the cusp of making the playoffs after a disastrous 2016-17 season. Without MacKinnon, the Avalanche might not be in this close race for a playoff berth, and from a talent perspective they do not command anywhere near as much respect as Malkin or Kucherov's teams. The Penguins (Crosby, 69 points) and Lightning (Stamkos, 72 points) both have other players within ten points of their respective teams' scoring leaders. There is a slightly wider gap between MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen of 13 points.

With fewer than 20 games remaining in the season, it is possible that any of these three players will be the NHL scoring leader at the end of the season. Malkin (78 points) is four points behind Nikita Kucherov (82 points); Nathan MacKinnon (76 points) is six points behind the leader. Kucherov is currently injured. Connor McDavid, who would otherwise be a potential candidate with 77 points currently, ranks well bellow these three in terms of points per 60 -- 15th, in fact -- due to the nearly two minutes of extra TOI he receives per game than them (an average of 21:25 vs 19:57 for Kucherov, 19:28 for MacKinnon, and 18:57 for Malkin); he also ranks only fifth in points per game, and his team currently ranks 27th out of 31 in the NHL. McDavid is not a Hart Trophy candidate this season.

The wildcard, as mentioned, is Taylor Hall. He is the fifth-most efficient player in terms of points per game, seventh-most efficient in terms of points per 60, and is eleventh in NHL scoring with 70 points, 12 behind the leader. However, his team is in a playoff spot, and the gap between him and the second-highest scorer on the New Jersey Devils is 29 points (Hischier, 41 points). Hall is currently on a 23-game personal points streak. Blake Wheeler has, to a lesser extent, been at the forefront of his team's successful season with 73 points while the second-highest scorer on the Jets, Patrik Laine, has 55; the Jets are fifth in the NHL overall standings -- at this point in time, there are clearly four players ahead of him in terms of performance this season, so he would need to elevate his game further to be regarded as a potential finalist.

The scoring race remains volatile, but the four most effective scorers in the league are quite evident this season: Nathan MacKinnon, Evgeni Malkin, Nikita Kucherov, and Taylor Hall.

While the final result of the Art Ross Trophy race might be just as unpredictable, the Hart Trophy race truly only boils down to four players as of today.

Points per 60 is an overrated stat. It doesn't account for players that kill penalties. Just because a player has a certain p/60 doesnt mean that if he was given more ice time he would continue with the same p/60.

 

[daver]

Effectiveness is more precisely measured when TOI is considered than by gauging based off of raw point totals -- by definition, there is more information about players' situations available if one considers TOI than if they were to ignore it altogether. In fact, no context can be derived from raw points totals, whereas one can at least understand one's scoring rate with points/60. TOI is a useful resource, especially in conjunction with the position of a player's team in the standings. One can develop a much deeper understanding of a player's season with these figures than by referring to raw point totals alone. Points/GP is another meaningful statistic. The same additional layers of contextual information used to decipher raw points totals can be applied to fortify one's interpretation of points/60 and points/GP.

Three of the top four leading scorers in the NHL are the top-three ranked players in points/60 and points/GP. One of those four leading scorers is not atop both lists, and one could easily argue that he is the least deserving of those four of a Hart Trophy nomination.

That is no coincidence.

As you seem to agree with, the much easier argument is that McDavid gets more icetime because he is relied on more than than others for his offense and can play that many minutes too.

McDavid is not a Hart nominee because his team won't make the playoffs, McKinnon will drop out of the race too most likely if the AVs, not because he is a less effective offensive player.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

All situations P/60 is one of the worst stats I've ever seen as an argument. It's going to completely deflate the production of players who PK.

If you're going to use P/60 use it right and select 5V5.

1. Mackinnon
2. Marchand
3. Barzal
4. Stone
5. Marchessault
6. McDavid
7. Kucherov
8. Spooner
9. Matthews
10. Staal

 

[snipes]

McDavid will not win the Hart this season even if he wins scoring race , he maybe most valuable to his team but Oilers are not making playoffs so it would be a insult to other players who are having fantastic seasons , If Colorado makes the Playoffs and MackInnon carries on the pace he is at he will hands down win it and deservedly so . He has 10 game winners and Avs would be nowhere close without him this season. I can See McDavid winning the Lindsey again it's voted on by the players.

This. I have MacKinnon for the Hart and McDavid for the Lindsay.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

All situations P/60 is one of the worst stats I've ever seen as an argument. It's going to completely deflate the production of players who PK.

If you're going to use P/60 use it right and select 5V5.

1. Mackinnon
2. Marchand
3. Barzal
4. Stone
5. Marchessault
6. McDavid
7. Kucherov
8. Spooner
9. Matthews
10. Staal

Yet, that appears to be a weaker argument with regards to identifying Hart Trophy finalists. Are any of the Top 5, MacKinnon aside, Hart Trophy candidates?

All situations points/60 is very much shaped by team circumstances and is much more similar to the raw point totals than EV P/60.

The purpose of all situations p/60 in a determination of which players are suitable for Hart Trophy consideration is to act as an additional step to filter the raw point totals and bring applicable contextual factors into the equation. As I mentioned above:

Since the NHL started tracking points/60, 11 out of the 21 Hart Trophy finalists who were skaters have finished in the Top 5 of the points/60 rankings. Four of them won the Hart Trophy. Some other Top 5-ranked points/60 players simply did not play enough games to be in consideration for the Hart Trophy (for example, Malkin last season with 72 points in 62 GP and by far the highest points/60; Datsyuk's 2014-15 season with 63 GP; Malkin in 2013-14 with 60 GP).

2009-10: H. Sedin (winner) [#3 p/60], Ovechkin (runner-up) [#2 p/60], Crosby (third) [#5 p/60]
2010-11: D. Sedin (runner-up) [#2 p/60], St. Louis (third) [#5 p/60]
2011-12: Malkin (winner) [#1 p/60]
2012-13: Crosby (runner-up) [#1 p/60]
2013-14: Crosby (winner) [#2 p/60]
2014-15: --------
2015-16: Kane (winner) [#1 p/60], Benn (third) [#4 p/60]
2016-17: Crosby (runner-up) [#2 p/60]

What points/60 also does is highlight a seven-year period of excellence by Evgeni Malkin that receives little attention, especially from the NHL.

18 out of the 21 Hart Trophy finalists who were skaters between 2009-10 and 2016-17 were simply in the Top 3 in NHL scoring. Despite this, there were players who performed better than some of the finalists but whose seasons were cut short. At least until the race is over, points/60 is a strong indicator of the pace that players are producing at, especially given the context of their team situations. There are several players jumbled together in the Art Ross Trophy race, but the three players with the most efficient rates are Kucherov, Malkin, and MacKinnon -- those are the three, based on both pace measurements, who could run away with the scoring lead.

This thread was intended to be an early discussion of the Hart Trophy finalists. Three undeniably lead the pack right now.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Mackinnon has been in on 38% of Colorado's goals this season. The only person in the NHL with a higher percent is McDavid who is in on 43% of Edmonton goals. Remember Mackinnon has missed 8 games though.

In the 8 games Colorado didn't have Mackinnon in the lineup they scored a total of 17 goals (2.1 goals per game)
In the 56 games Colorado played with Mackinnon in the lineup they have 184 goals (3.4 goals per game)

 

[The Macho King]

When is Kucherov expected to be back?

Today most likely.

 

[tony d]

Going to be interesting to see who wins the Hart. Some good players this year. MacKinnon or Hall though would be favorites given how well their teams have played this yr. vs. expectations.

 

[daver]

Yet, that appears to be a weaker argument with regards to identifying Hart Trophy finalists. Are any of the Top 5, MacKinnon aside, Hart Trophy candidates?

All situations points/60 is very much shaped by team circumstances and is much more similar to the raw point totals than EV P/60.

The purpose of all situations p/60 in a determination of which players are suitable for Hart Trophy consideration is to act as an additional step to filter the raw point totals and bring applicable contextual factors into the equation. As I mentioned above:

Since the NHL started tracking points/60, 11 out of the 21 Hart Trophy finalists who were skaters have finished in the Top 5 of the points/60 rankings. Four of them won the Hart Trophy.

2009-10: H. Sedin (winner) [#3 p/60], Ovechkin (runner-up) [#2 p/60], Crosby (third) [#5 p/60]
2010-11: D. Sedin (runner-up) [#2 p/60], St. Louis (third) [#5 p/60]
2011-12: Malkin (winner) [#1 p/60]
2012-13: Crosby (runner-up) [#1 p/60]
2013-14: Crosby (winner) [#2 p/60]
2014-15: --------
2015-16: Kane (winner) [#1 p/60], Benn (third) [#4 p/60]
2016-17: Crosby (runner-up) [#2 p/60]

The four Hart Trophy winners also won the Art Ross Trophy.

Wow, top point getters are tops in pts/60. Who would have thunk it! Except of course McDavid who is obviously less effective at offense as Malkin, Kuch, and MacKinnon.

Question for you? Why did Crosby get a Hart nomination in 2016, his pts/60 was 7th among players with a min. of 60 games. And BTW, McDavid apparently just as effective as a rookie as he is this year based on pts/60,and marginally better last year. Do you agree with that assessment?

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Pts per 60 in hockey is completely useless for top 6 players. They all get relatively equal opportunity versus other elite player. Its much better to look at zone deploitment, pp time, pk time, empty net opportunities etc.

 

[KarmaPolice]

@KarmaPolice Mcdavid has played 8 more games though so I would imagine it wouldn't be quite as dramatic a lead. Mcdavid does have a better even strength PPG though but Mackinnon Is fairly close.

That's a good point. I overlooked that.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Wow, top point getters are tops in pts/60. Who would have thunk it! Except of course McDavid who is obviously less effective at offense as Malkin, Kuch, and MacKinnon.

Question for you? Why did Crosby get a Hart nomination in 2016, his pts/60 was 7th among players with a min. of 60 games. And BTW, McDavid apparently just as effective as a rookie as he is this year based on pts/60,and marginally better last year. Do you agree with that assessment?

It seems I have been baited into a discussion about McDavid's effectiveness when the intention of this thread was to analyze and discuss the favorites for the Hart Trophy, three of whom are at the top of both pace measurements: p/60 and p/GP.

Through approximately 60 games, there are three players who share the top of the points lead, the points/GP lead, and the points/60 lead. That should be the topic of discussion.

To answer your questions, the three highest-scoring players in the NHL tend to be favorites for the Hart Trophy. Crosby fit that criteria in 2016. McDavid was second only to Patrick Kane in points/60 in 2015-16 and might have been a finalist had he been healthy all season -- Taylor Hall scored 65 points, and McDavid would have been a boost for the team.

Unless their campaigns come crashing to a halt, Malkin, Kucherov and MacKinnon are headed on their way to potential Hart Trophy nominations in 2018. Through 60+ games, they have been the three elite forwards of the NHL this season. They are the early favorites.

 

[PensandCaps]

How about EV points/60? Or just EV point totals. Who are the top 5?

I think coaching has a bigger effect on PP numbers than at EV. PP is a lot about set plays, set zone entries, etc. Quite specific tactics. A great PP coach I think can have a big influential effect on making a dangerous PP. Not to mention needing to have certain players who's skills fit the more rigid formation of play on a PP, such as an effective Dman PP QB, among other players with certain skills that allow a PP to thrive: if you don't have all the pieces the PP likely wont thrive, no matter if there's a superstar on the ice or not. EV is much more nuanced, complex and just plain 'messy' or chaotic, for lack of better terms. Less rigid, let's say; therefore requiring a player of greater skill and ability to be able to produce points. That's my assertion, anyway. Take it or leave it, I suppose.

EDIT: Top 5 EV point producers (totals, not per/60):
1. McDavid: 59 points
2. Kucherov: 52
3. Marchessault: 52
4/5. Gaudreau: 50
4/5. Mackinnon: 50

Interesting. McDavid is outclassing everyone at producing at EV. Odd this was left out. Don't suppose there's any agenda or anything.

Dang. Maybe he should be better on the power play.

 

[blinds]

It's funny seeing Leafs and Oilers fans completely neglect power play production just because their stars aren't doing well on the power play.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I gotta give it to MacKinnon.