Proposal: Hampus Lindholm offer sheet (BUF/NJD)

snipes

How cold? I’m ice cold.
Dec 28, 2015
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Okay, I had to make changes to my cp to see this. Thanks for the info.

:yo:

You can actually learn a lot about other teams rosters in some of these threads as well. Build up your knowledge of players around the league.
 

I am I

Registered User
Feb 18, 2010
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If I were a rival GM that wanted to make Anaheim's life difficult I would send him a four year offer: $10M, $6.5M, $5M, $5M (AAV $6.625). I think it is legal and the AAV is fairly reasonable. Also I'd make the $10M in the first year primarily a signing bonus payable immediately.

The front loading hurts the Ducks budget and four years takes Lindholm right to UFA status and I've built a bit of good feeling with him towards my team.

Won't happen, but that is how I would structure it, expecting Anaheim to match it. I'm a little surprised this doesn't happen once in a while.
 

Pennaduck

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Aug 17, 2016
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There have only been 8 offer sheets signed in the Cap era. Of these, only one was not matched (Penner). Six of the eight were signed in July, and one was the ROR holdout debacle that was offered in February. A late summer/early fall offer sheet in the salary cap era is a very rare thing. Not impossible, but its clearly not a move GMs look to do during their offseason. In fact it seems like its not a move GMs like in particular at any time. Signing an RFA to an offer sheet is only successful if you price them out of their current team's salary structure, meaning you are likely overpaying them at least up front. That has implications in a cap league, and further implications down the road when it comes time to offer them a UFA contract that will also be inflated because their RFA price, as their starting point, was inflated.

Also interesting to note that of the eight players who signed offer sheets in the cap era, seven of them are no longer with the team that either offered or matched. Now that could just be do to good old roster turnover, but you have to wonder if a player signing an offer sheet is a good tactic either. Are agents going to encourage it? Probably. But it clearly doesn't mean you are guaranteed to be changing teams and almost certainly damages the relationship between the player and the GM at least a little bit.

You can counter this stuff with whatever you want, but if you look at the teams in the league with the requisite cap space, draft picks, and expansion protection slots available to make this move, and then look long term to see if it may damage their salary structure down the road, the number of teams capable of doing this becomes very few. Add to that the rarity of the offer sheet in general, and specifically this time of year, and the small percent chance that it is not matched, and you have an scenario where it seems ridiculous to be devoting this much debate over. Especially when considering that most of the people posting here are fans of teams that have their own RFAs yet to sign, or don't have the requisite picks/cap space/expansion protection slots.

And as a final note regarding the Ducks salary situation. No one knows what the internal budget will be for this season or any season going forward. It is not a figure that is often discussed by management. But you better believe that with the expansion cash coming soon, our internal cap would be as high as necessary to keep our franchise cornerstone defenseman. Lindholm is not going anywhere. Get over it.
 

Pennaduck

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Aug 17, 2016
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If I were a rival GM that wanted to make Anaheim's life difficult I would send him a four year offer: $10M, $6.5M, $5M, $5M (AAV $6.625). I think it is legal and the AAV is fairly reasonable. Also I'd make the $10M in the first year primarily a signing bonus payable immediately.

The front loading hurts the Ducks budget and four years takes Lindholm right to UFA status and I've built a bit of good feeling with him towards my team.

Won't happen, but that is how I would structure it, expecting Anaheim to match it. I'm a little surprised this doesn't happen once in a while.

Respecting the RFA contract is a way for GMs to keep salaries from spinning out of control. If you give Lindholm 6.625 for all his RFA years, next season other good young RFA defenseman and their agents are going to use that as leverage. Every bad contract signed by a GM increases the overall salary levels of comparable players. Obviously bad contracts are offered all the time, and a offer sheet (while rare) is possible, but GMs know that their actions have ramifications for their own team down the road when it comes to signing their own players.

There is also the matter that Anaheim would match that. Front loading the salary to cause a big payout hoping a small market team can't match it does not work. Just look at how much Nashville paid Weber in signing bonus money over the first year after he signed Philly's offer. These owners are business people. They know that paying for something up front is worth it if you have savings later.

And no, I am not comparing Lindholm to Weber or their situations either. I am just saying that the tactic was tried by Philly and it didn't work, and there is not reason to suspect that Anaheim would be any different
 

Pennaduck

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Aug 17, 2016
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Do we know what the Ducks current offer is to Lindholm and what Lindholm is asking for in return?

No. All we know is Lindholm had an interview in sweden saying the ducks gave him a low offer. The translation has already been discussed as nauseum. it seems pretty clear Bob Murray is trying to get him to sign for as low as possible, while his agent is trying to get as much as possible. Just like pretty much EVERY contract EVER.
 

snipes

How cold? I’m ice cold.
Dec 28, 2015
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No. All we know is Lindholm had an interview in sweden saying the ducks gave him a low offer. The translation has already been discussed as nauseum. it seems pretty clear Bob Murray is trying to get him to sign for as low as possible, while his agent is trying to get as much as possible. Just like pretty much EVERY contract EVER.

Lowballing a superstar franchise player of Lindholms quality is not smart management.

Maybe a bridge deal then he bounces?
 

snipes

How cold? I’m ice cold.
Dec 28, 2015
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I have followed the threads and am aware of the term. I meant what does your comment mean

I think the language is pretty clear, your anger should be at BM and the cheap owners who aren't taking care of your guy.
 

WeDislikeEich

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Jun 22, 2015
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Buffalo isn't offer sheeting Lindholm, especially with Ristolainen and Girgensons both still RFA's.
 

mytduxfan*

Guest
Lowballing a superstar franchise player of Lindholms quality is not smart management.

Maybe a bridge deal then he bounces?

He'd still be an RFA after a bridge deal. No way Lindholm accepts anything longer then 2 years.
 

snipes

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Dec 28, 2015
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He'd still be an RFA after a bridge deal. No way Lindholm accepts anything longer then 2 years.

He's going to get paid, I mean lets be real. You guys will likely have to move other pieces out and take a loss to keep Lindholm.

Obviously you do whatever you can to keep Lindholm, he's a stud and those guys don't come along everyday.
 

Pennaduck

Registered User
Aug 17, 2016
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Lowballing a superstar franchise player of Lindholms quality is not smart management.

Maybe a bridge deal then he bounces?

No, it is not smart management, and as per your previous comment, I have directed a lot of frustration towards Murray in the past year or so for several moves he's made or didn't make. But if Murray signed him to a bridge deal, it could be a two year bridge deal and then still have his RFA rights to negotiate a longer term deal buying into his UFA years. He wouldn't be able to sign a bridge deal and bounce that easily. That is why RFA contracts are very valuable in the cap era, particularly to smaller market teams

That is not the way I would go, especially with a talent like him, but it is well within Murray's rights as a GM, and probably what he is trying to do, which is why Lindholm is calling it a skambud or whatever. He wants market value, which has been pretty much set in the 5 to 5.5 for 4 to 5 years range, and he will end up getting that I'm sure. That is the fair deal here and I think all Ducks fans would be more than happy to pay that or even a bit more if it meant getting this all settled, but if there is no outside pressure to sign the deal, why not, as a GM, try to use what leverage you have to save as much coin as you can.

Murray has shown he is a tough negotiator in RFA deals, but more than fair in UFA signings/re-signings. He has also shown he is not afraid to dole out 8+ million for top end talent. There is absolutely no reason for Lindholm to think that the grass is greener elsewhere.
 

snipes

How cold? I’m ice cold.
Dec 28, 2015
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No, it is not smart management, and as per your previous comment, I have directed a lot of frustration towards Murray in the past year or so for several moves he's made or didn't make. But if Murray signed him to a bridge deal, it could be a two year bridge deal and then still have his RFA rights to negotiate a longer term deal buying into his UFA years. He wouldn't be able to sign a bridge deal and bounce that easily. That is why RFA contracts are very valuable in the cap era, particularly to smaller market teams

That is not the way I would go, especially with a talent like him, but it is well within Murray's rights as a GM, and probably what he is trying to do, which is why Lindholm is calling it a skambud or whatever. He wants market value, which has been pretty much set in the 5 to 5.5 for 4 to 5 years range, and he will end up getting that I'm sure. That is the fair deal here and I think all Ducks fans would be more than happy to pay that or even a bit more if it meant getting this all settled, but if there is no outside pressure to sign the deal, why not, as a GM, try to use what leverage you have to save as much coin as you can.

Murray has shown he is a tough negotiator in RFA deals, but more than fair in UFA signings/re-signings. He has also shown he is not afraid to dole out 8+ million for top end talent. There is absolutely no reason for Lindholm to think that the grass is greener elsewhere.

That was a well thought out analysis, good read.
 

mytduxfan*

Guest
He's going to get paid, I mean lets be real. You guys will likely have to move other pieces out and take a loss to keep Lindholm.

Obviously you do whatever you can to keep Lindholm, he's a stud and those guys don't come along everyday.

Yeah, he'll get paid in 2 years when he's proven himself to be a #1D. He'll get paid a lot more going that route then if he signs some 6 x 6M contract now, that is unless he doesn't back himself to become a true #1D.

I don't know how this will all turn out. BM has pushed multiple RFAs to the edge. Vatanen signed a peach of a bridge deal, so did Bonino, and Gibson, and Manson. Anyway, you get the idea. If BM is good at one thing, it's getting RFAs to sign extremely cheap deals. Rakell will definitely sign a sweet 2 year bridge contract and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lindholm follow swiftly behind.
 

I am I

Registered User
Feb 18, 2010
209
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Respecting the RFA contract is a way for GMs to keep salaries from spinning out of control. If you give Lindholm 6.625 for all his RFA years, next season other good young RFA defenseman and their agents are going to use that as leverage. Every bad contract signed by a GM increases the overall salary levels of comparable players. Obviously bad contracts are offered all the time, and a offer sheet (while rare) is possible, but GMs know that their actions have ramifications for their own team down the road when it comes to signing their own players.

There is also the matter that Anaheim would match that. Front loading the salary to cause a big payout hoping a small market team can't match it does not work. Just look at how much Nashville paid Weber in signing bonus money over the first year after he signed Philly's offer. These owners are business people. They know that paying for something up front is worth it if you have savings later.

And no, I am not comparing Lindholm to Weber or their situations either. I am just saying that the tactic was tried by Philly and it didn't work, and there is not reason to suspect that Anaheim would be any different

I don't really disagree with anything you've written here. Maybe $6.6 is a little high, but not otherworldly. I was more conveying the idea, plus getting a little tampering-free negotiating in for four years in the future.

Almost guarantee Anaheim would match it, but adding $10M this season make shake another player loose, obviously not to the team that sent the OS, but weakening a division rival wouldn't be all bad. Depends how badly you think they want to hold to something close to their budget.

Too much of this tomfoolery would be inflationary, but a little could be strategic.
 

dracom

Registered User
Dec 22, 2015
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Vancouver, WA
If I were a rival GM that wanted to make Anaheim's life difficult I would send him a four year offer: $10M, $6.5M, $5M, $5M (AAV $6.625). I think it is legal and the AAV is fairly reasonable. Also I'd make the $10M in the first year primarily a signing bonus payable immediately.

The front loading hurts the Ducks budget and four years takes Lindholm right to UFA status and I've built a bit of good feeling with him towards my team.

Won't happen, but that is how I would structure it, expecting Anaheim to match it. I'm a little surprised this doesn't happen once in a while.

Because GMs aren't children trying to screw other GMs all the time. They're professionals that still have to work together on occasion.
 

Maukkis

EZ4ENCE
Mar 16, 2016
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I really think your memory of those offer sheets is a little warped.

Niemi was no big loss for Chicago. He was viewed as expendable. As far as offer sheets go, that was one of the most reasonable I've seen, especially in hindsight. They locked up a top 4 defenseman for 4 years, at a reasonable price. Maybe it was a tad pricey for a defensive defenseman(at the time), but not by much.

ROR is another matter entirely, and if some team wants to offer Rakell a stupid contract like that, they are more than welcome to. That was a desperate move from Calgary, and they are lucky that Colorado matched. Especially since there was the question of whether ROR would need to go through waivers for Calgary, if I remember correctly. I wouldn't hold it against Rakell if some team offered him $5m AAV and he signed it. He's not worth that. Certainly not at this stage. But he isn't going to be offered that either. ROR was a better player, and a more highly touted player, which seems to be dracom's point: Rakell is talented, but there is definitely a risk in OS'ing him. I'm pretty sure most of the teams that would be in a position to offer sheet him have prospects that project to be better. Why be wasteful?

Did you even read my original post? 3x3,16 is by no means an overpayment for a young 40+ point guy. You can potentially get him for just a second round pick, which is ridiculously low for a player like Rakell. You're just not answering the original question. Do you match the offer sheet, or let him go, knowing that it improves your negotiation position with Lindholm?
 

Kalv

Slava Ukraini
Mar 29, 2009
24,157
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Latvia
Bob just misunderstood what he had to do. He heard that other teams might be offer sheeting Lindholm, so he also offer ****ted him. Nothing to see here, go away
 

Stephen Gionta

Boston College > Boston University
Jun 15, 2015
6,392
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East Rutherford, NJ
If I am Ray Shero I'm trying to trade for Fowler. not offer sheet Lindholm. Don't want to ruin any GM relationship with a West team that NJ commonly makes trades with.
 

supersonic jet

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
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Winnipeg
I don't really disagree with anything you've written here. Maybe $6.6 is a little high, but not otherworldly. I was more conveying the idea, plus getting a little tampering-free negotiating in for four years in the future.

Almost guarantee Anaheim would match it, but adding $10M this season make shake another player loose, obviously not to the team that sent the OS, but weakening a division rival wouldn't be all bad. Depends how badly you think they want to hold to something close to their budget.

Too much of this tomfoolery would be inflationary, but a little could be strategic.

New Jersey is probably the only team that would be in a position to offersheet Lindholm, they have their 1st and 2nd and Avs 3rd which they can use trade for their own 3rd.
 

DavidBL

Registered User
Jul 25, 2012
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Orange, CA
Honestly I wonder what ownership would do in an OS situation. If Lindholm signed a predatory offersheet, IE one that was front loaded similar in style to the Weber deal would the owners decide to dish out the extra cash. Nashville did and they were an even tighter purse team than the Ducks. IE an offersheet might be exactly what BM needs to get Lindholm signed.

On the other hand it was also reported that some executives were happy to see BMs comments about trying to make Lindholm and Rakell play on cheaper deals. It sets the precedent so they can use it on their own players but not risk them. If that is true I think all 29 GMs would rather see BM do it rather than risk a OS that most likely gets matched.
 

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