Half way Norris vote

[Kshahdoo]

You mean like in 2016 when he finished 4th in points, 1st in assists, and still didn't win the Norris?

That's a 2022 equivalent of 110 points and he still lost the Norris.

If Karlsson hits 100, but other defensemen hit 90 points he's far far far from a lock.

Equivalent means nothing. When he actually hits 100 that will be the whole different story.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Then why did you name Karlsson?

Because he’s first in the scoring race amongst D and those players are almost always finalists. And because the voters love a come back story.

 

[Ben White]

If anyone could GIF the play vs Anaheim 2 days ago, 4:30 left of the third period which proves Karlsson actually has eyes in the back of his head I’d be super grateful

(Yeah, if you have access to that game and have some extra time maybe you’d like to GIF his deke at 4on4 - 7:09 left of the first period which is a good example of Karlsson the illusionist )

 

[avsfan9]

	xGF/60	xGA/60	xGF%	w/o x/GF%	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Karlsson	3.31	2.64	55.65%	50.23%	3.95	3.22	55.10%
Dahlin	2.74	2.55	51.74%	47.35%	3.48	2.52	57.97%
Morrissey	2.73	2.88	48.73%	49.64%	3.14	1.87	62.71%
Fox	2.99	2.24	57.15%	46.34%	3.12	1.77	63.79%
Heiskanen	2.87	2.42	54.19%	49.75%	2.56	2.22	53.57%
Lindholm	3.17	2.06	60.65%	50.93%	3.29	1.64	66.67%

Why did you not put Makar there? Last I saw on Sportsnet , Makar still leads Norris voting betting odds. He’s having as good a season as everyone else and will get a lot of votes. Definitely top 3. Just curious about his fancy stats compared to the rest.

 

[Regal]

Why did you not put Makar there? Last I saw on Sportsnet , Makar still leads Norris voting betting odds. He’s having as good a season as everyone else and will get a lot of votes. Definitely top 3. Just curious about his fancy stats compared to the rest.

Makar’s underlying numbers are strong again this year, but he’s gotten a lot of flack for his 5v5 production being mediocre compared to last season where it was great. I doubt he’d be top 3 if voting were done right now. Maybe 5th.

 

[Sun God Nika]

It’s a two horse race between Dahlin and Karlsson.

Dahlia can wait Karlsson needs some make up for past snubs

 

[wetcoast]

How is Morrissey not close? Morrissey has 2 more points than Dahlin yet apparently it’s not even close

Because it's not only abut points?

Makar’s underlying numbers are strong again this year, but he’s gotten a lot of flack for his 5v5 production being mediocre compared to last season where it was great. I doubt he’d be top 3 if voting were done right now. Maybe 5th.

Fair enough so I guess Makar won't be winning the half season Norris, but then again no one ever does.

 

[wetcoast]

Because he’s first in the scoring race amongst D and those players are almost always finalists. And because the voters love a come back story.

You are right voters do love narratives but the one in Buffalo is also extremely impressive right now.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Karlsson, though award voters will hold San Jose's terrible record against him.

His inability to play defense will be held against him unless he's drastically improved since his ottawa days

 

[WetcoastOrca]

You are right voters do love narratives but the one in Buffalo is also extremely impressive right now.

Yeah. Tbh Dahlin would have my vote. Karlsson a close second.

 

[RapidKnight]

Why did you not put Makar there? Last I saw on Sportsnet , Makar still leads Norris voting betting odds. He’s having as good a season as everyone else and will get a lot of votes. Definitely top 3. Just curious about his fancy stats compared to the rest.

Fixed. He has been far from bad but I think top 3 is a stretch right now considering he is not among the best in points nor fancy stats. Furthermore his even strength scoring, the fancy stats considering his d-partner, and his actual goal differential do him no favors. Still a solid season though. I would put him 6th or 7th.

 

[norrisnick]

His inability to play defense will be held against him unless he's drastically improved since his ottawa days

Narrator - "It hasn't."

 

[Ben White]

This is a good article:
Norris Trophy Rankings: Morrissey enters the mix

They got EK’s xGF wrong though, it should be 55.65%

And they have Dahlin too low

 

[Ben White]

Here’s some FunFacts for those who still for some reason criticize Karlsson’s +\-. Of the top 5 point getters at the Sharks Karlsson has the best +\-. And that is what’s relevant cause these are the guys who’s out on the ice with the goalie pulled and on short handed goals against. On that topic here’s another one for you, guess who’s the ONLY plus player on the entire Shark’s roster: Jaycup Megna - Karlsson’s D partner!! And he has a SIGNIFICANTLY higher plus minus than everyone else on +5. So that gives a hint where Karlsson’s +\- would be not counting EN goals and SH goals which off course Karlsson’s defensive play can’t be blamed for with all the imagination in the world. A third one: Except for Megna, his D partner, Karlsson has the best +\- of all regular Ds and the 2nd best +\- of all regular skaters! Despite playing by far the most minutes on one of the worst teams in the league.

So, next time anyone points at his plus minus, give them this.

 

[Dust]

1. Karlsson - yes his team sucks, yes his defense isn't sparkling, but the fact he's putting up all those points and is only a -4 on a team with a negative 29 goal differential is impressive.

2. Dahlin - Just having an overall excellent season.

3. Morrissey - He's solid defensively and has come out of nowhere with the offense this year. Anyone who say "it's not close" is just being a click baiter. My only question mark is if he can sustain the offense as it's not something he's done consistently prior to this season.

HM: Fox, Makar, Heiskanen.

 

[Lavar Ball]

1. Karlsson - yes his team sucks, yes his defense isn't sparkling, but the fact he's putting up all those points and is only a -4 on a team with a negative 29 goal differential is impressive.

2. Dahlin - Just having an overall excellent season, his missed time might end up hurting him in the end.

3. Morrissey - He's solid defensively and has come out of nowhere with the offense this year. Anyone who say "it's not close" is just being a click baiter. My only question mark is if he can sustain the offense as it's not something he's done consistently prior to this season.

HM: Fox, Makar, Heiskanen.

?

Dahlin has only missed one game this season

 

[lomiller1]

Because it's not only abut points?

Goals surrendered:
Jets 103
Sabers 127
Sharks 155

If it's about defense, only one of these D-Men is leading his team to a strong defensive performance. Morrissey also has an existing reputation as a strong defensive player, something the other two lack. In terms of advanced stats Morrissey may be having a weak season by his standards, but a lot of that comes down to a long stretch of games earlier in the season where he was partnered with Pionk, who's always been a train-wreck defensively.

WRT Dahlin's offensive numbers the Sabres score a lot more goals than either the Jets or Sharks. While his totals are similar his points percentage (50.6) is much lower than either Morrissey (61.3) or Karlsson (65.9), so the numbers themselves are a lot less impressive.

I've said before that Karlsson needs to hold a 10-15 point advantage in points at season end to win the Norris and at present he is tracking towards that. Morrissey has separated himself as the clear number 2 choice.

 

[The don godfather]

Lindholm should get some votes.

 

[Beerz]

Goals surrendered:
Jets 103
Sabers 127
Sharks 155

If it's about defense, only one of these D-Men is leading his team to a strong defensive performance. Morrissey also has an existing reputation as a strong defensive player, something the other two lack. In terms of advanced stats Morrissey may be having a weak season by his standards, but a lot of that comes down to a long stretch of games earlier in the season where he was partnered with Pionk, who's always been a train-wreck defensively.

WRT Dahlin's offensive numbers the Sabres score a lot more goals than either the Jets or Sharks. While his totals are similar his points percentage (50.6) is much lower than either Morrissey (61.3) or Karlsson (65.9), so the numbers themselves are a lot less impressive.

I've said before that Karlsson needs to hold a 10-15 point advantage in points at season end to win the Norris and at present he is tracking towards that. Morrissey has separated himself as the clear number 2 choice.

I like how you hold the Sabres offensive prowess against Dahlin ... then fail to mention the Jets having an all world goalie while pimping the Jets defensive prowess and just attributing it to Morrissey

Slick.

 

[Boreal01]

Dahlin

HM: Karlsson, Morrissey

 

[Dust]

?

Dahlin has only missed one game this season

My bad, I thought Buffalo had played 40/41 games, just realized my mistake. I'll edit the original post, thanks for correcting me!

 

[Beerz]

My bad, I thought Buffalo had played 40/41 games, just realized my mistake. I'll edit the original post, thanks for correcting me!

Sabres have had a couple games postponed due to weather

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

Goals surrendered:
Jets 103
Sabers 127
Sharks 155

If it's about defense, only one of these D-Men is leading his team to a strong defensive performance. Morrissey also has an existing reputation as a strong defensive player, something the other two lack. In terms of advanced stats Morrissey may be having a weak season by his standards, but a lot of that comes down to a long stretch of games earlier in the season where he was partnered with Pionk, who's always been a train-wreck defensively.

WRT Dahlin's offensive numbers the Sabres score a lot more goals than either the Jets or Sharks. While his totals are similar his points percentage (50.6) is much lower than either Morrissey (61.3) or Karlsson (65.9), so the numbers themselves are a lot less impressive.

I've said before that Karlsson needs to hold a 10-15 point advantage in points at season end to win the Norris and at present he is tracking towards that. Morrissey has separated himself as the clear number 2 choice.

What the team including the goalie give up for goals against cannot be automatically contributed to one player. Dahlin plays the most minutes and has the best +/- on the team.

 

[Ben White]

Another fun fact:
This is how EK’s production this season (should he keep it up) holds up against the last 2 times Dmen reached 100 points.

Era adjusted:
Erik Karlsson 2022-23 (on pace for) 106 era adjusted points
Paul Coffey 1988-89 89 era adjusted points
Brian Leetch 1991-92 88 era adjusted points

To add to that, neither Coffey or Leetch led their own teams in points these seasons while Karlsson is currently leading the Sharks by a 14 points margin.

(Side note: Even Karlsson’s 82 p in 2016, when he finished 4th in league scoring, was era adjusted higher than the Leetch and Coffey seasons, that one lands on 90 era adjusted points.)

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

Another fun fact:
This is how EK’s production this season (should he keep it up) holds up against the last 2 times Dmen reached 100 points.

Era adjusted:
Erik Karlsson 2022-23 (on pace for) 106 era adjusted points
Paul Coffey 1988-89 89 era adjusted points
Brian Leetch 1991-92 88 era adjusted points

To add to that, neither Coffey or Leetch led their own teams in points these seasons while Karlsson is currently leading the Sharks by a 14 points margin.

(Side note: Even Karlsson’s 82 p in 2016, when he finished 4th in league scoring, was era adjusted higher than the Leetch and Coffey seasons, that one lands on 90 era adjusted points.)

Here's another fun fact. The Sabres have four less games played that has to be made up and Dahlin's only ten points behind Karlsson. A couple of big nights and he's right there with him as far as offense production while being a vastly better all around defenseman.