Salary Cap: Gun to Your Head

[TakeTheBody]

Simple. Mitch makes more. He brings more in a trade. Willy still pretty damn good.

 

[PromisedLand]

My propsal was in the offseason, before he got his 4 years 13.25M extension.

Right now we need him to bounce back and be worth his deal b/c no one has the cap or desire for a ppgish soon to be 13M man.

Once we decided to go to compete and keep Matthews, we are kind of stuck in our spot unless one of the core 4 steps up huge in the playoffs.

There isnt much help coming this deadline.

We wont deal Cowan, Knies, and Robertson most likely

Unlikely we deal niemela, and minten. Everyone else in our prospect pool is to uncooked/undervalued at the moment to get us an upgrade on defense.

We shuffled the chairs this offseason, improving offense for defense. It would be better if 16, and 34 were playing like usual, but with them both looking very concerning so far, the team has struggled outside of 88 and 91 (aling with domi and robertson/knies depth contributions)

Pizza Man/Shanny combo is just like Dubas/Shanny combo.

We dont know what our L/T strategy is. We get 1 year guys, hope they overplay their deals and then they perform below avg come playoffs and walk as UFAs, rinse and repeat.

Treliving letting Nylander go on this long is an epic failure. He should have been signed coming into the season or dealth at the draft.

We are getting screwed now and could risk losing him for nil

My gut tells me that Matthews has quasi Klinbered himself. He bet on himself for 4 years; and I don't think his contributions/production is going to match the 13.25 AAV; he will get a much lower cap hit on his next deal.

- His skating is not the same as it was before
- His shot is not the same as it was before
- His boardwork is not the same as it was before
- Along the road he has also picked up really bad habits from marner in making cute BS plays and Tavares' 1 on 3 hockey instead of putting the puck deep and engaging in board battle when out manned

matthews' prime asset was his shot which is nowhere to be seen since last season.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

What are the ‘means’?

You indicate to him he is not wanted here and that there is no plan for a future for him in this organization. Usually that should be enough for most players.

If he says no and you can’t trade him, you let him walk in UFA. Everyone knows he won’t take a penny less.

 

[Buds17]

I'd still have to lean towards keeping the historically suoerior player - Marner.

 

[Gary Nylund]

if it was possible this is the order I’d trade em:
16
34
91
88

I hate that I agree with this order.

I'd still have to lean towards keeping the historically suoerior player - Marner.

If the goal is to make the playoffs and you don't care about what happens once you get there, I would agree.

 

[PromisedLand]

Marner and Tavares traded after the Columbus series. Not that they are bad players, but it was smashing you in the face obvious it wasn't going to work this way.

It's too late now. Too many futures are out of the window, the core is scarred and won't be able to get it done. We'll keep plugging away and spinning our tires until the core are in their mid-30s. We will not see a Cup any time soon.

I've always maintained this (still to be proven wrong; will be happy to be proven wrong) that:

- individually they are good players (matthews, tavares, nylander, marner); together though they are not just good enough especially when it comes to playoffs. they don't have the drive to raise their games.

For some reason they don't come together as a team under this leadership group; they play like a bunch of individuals.

I just wonder what our defensive state would be if we didn't have Rielly busting his ass every night.

 

[ACC1224]

Erik Karlsson waived his NMC to go to Pittsburgh last summer. That's off the top of my head since he scored a GWG last night.

How are those situations comparable? Karlsson wasn’t a home town kid and was playing on one of the worse teams in the league.

 

[Buds17]

I hate that I agree with this order.


If the goal is to make the playoffs and you don't care about what happens once you get there, I would agree.

The stats don't appear to agree with this.

 

[ACC1224]

You indicate to him he is not wanted here and that there is no plan for a future for him in this organization. Usually that should be enough for most players.

If he says no and you can’t trade him, you let him walk in UFA. Everyone knows he won’t take a penny less.

Agreed the only way he leaves is walking as a
UFA.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The stats don't appear to agree with this.

Sure they do. Marner's playoff production during the playoffs decreases much more than the average, and once we get to games 5-7 in a series, it falls off a cliff. He's the poster boy for our 1-7 playoff series W/L record and his personal stats very much line up with our annual game 7 catastrophes.

 

[notbias]

are you saying that:

Tavares 11 AAV
Matthews 13.25 AAV
Marner 11 AAV
Nyaldner 10+ AAV
Total: approx 45M+ in 4 guys all forwards is a great strategy

Is going to be an awesome cap allocation for Leafs next season with guaranteed success in regular season and post season?

WHAT?

You claimed cap hell... not if the allocation was good.

Regardless, the cap situation for next year is hardly bad... Matthews' contract is the raising cap, and Nylander's is Klingberg's... Brodie apparently sucks, and so does Samsanov.... we have a lot of cap being wasted apparently so next year will be better.

 

[Gary Nylund]

How are those situations comparable? Karlsson wasn’t a home town kid and was playing on one of the worse teams in the league.

Have you forgotten your own post? You asked for an example, he gave you one. A very recent one to boot.

Agreed the only way he leaves is walking as a
UFA.

The word "agreed" doesn't fit here. Do you see why?

 

[stickty111]

Sure they do. Marner's playoff production during the playoffs decreases much more than the average, and once we get to games 5-7 in a series, it falls off a cliff. He's the poster boy for our 1-7 playoff series W/L record and his personal stats very much line up with our annual game 7 catastrophes.

From the core 4 forwards, Marner's been the worst performer in the playoffs. Stats may seem fine for Marner, but he really hasn't played well in the playoffs.

 

[Stephen]

How are those situations comparable? Karlsson wasn’t a home town kid and was playing on one of the worse teams in the league.

Oh, you wanted something really specific.

Darryl Sittler waived his no-trade clause to be traded to Philadelphia after a protracted battle with Leafs management, which saw Lanny McDonald shipped out to alienate Sittler. Sittler finally relented on the condition he be moved to either Philadelphia or Minnesota in 1982 Not the same CBA or era and Sittler is technically from Kitchener, but between Leafs core dismantling, long time Ontario born star, franchise change in direction vibes it's close enough.

Other more modern examples of guys who did the honorable thing might be Marc-Andre Fleury who waived his no move for the Vegas expansion, and Ryan McDonagh who waived to leave Tampa a few days after winning their back to back cup.

Again I'm just looking for historical examples I'm not saying to necessarily do anything about Mitch or Tavares today or tomorrow but with their contracts running down, if things don't go well. Some guys choose to leave willingly.

 

[freshwind]

since shanabang does not have the courage to ask mitch to waive it is all up to the fans

start the larry murphy treatment and keep it up - paul will be begging the club to move his son

if not, then we just watch it play out ....

 

[Buds17]

Sure they do. Marner's playoff production during the playoffs decreases much more than the average, and once we get to games 5-7 in a series, it falls off a cliff. He's the poster boy for our 1-7 playoff series W/L record and his personal stats very much line up with our annual game 7 catastrophes.

Marner still has more playoff points than Nylander does though. Those crucial, latter games can't occur if the team doesn't first win enough of the initial games. No doubt that the team absolutely needs more from multiple sources (Marner included) if it wishes to win the biggest games of all more often than it currently does.

 

[Trapper]

What is the offer for each player?

 

[ACC1224]

Oh, you wanted something really specific.

Darryl Sittler waived his no-trade clause to be traded to Philadelphia after a protracted battle with Leafs management, which saw Lanny McDonald shipped out to alienate Sittler. Sittler finally relented on the condition he be moved to either Philadelphia or Minnesota in 1982 Not the same CBA or era and Sittler is technically from Kitchener, but between Leafs core dismantling, long time Ontario born star, franchise change in direction vibes it's close enough.

Other more modern examples of guys who did the honorable thing might be Marc-Andre Fleury who waived his no move for the Vegas expansion, and Ryan McDonagh who waived to leave Tampa a few days after winning their back to back cup.

Again I'm just looking for historical examples I'm not saying to necessarily do anything about Mitch or Tavares today or tomorrow but with their contracts running down, if things don't go well. Some guys choose to leave willingly.

Yes comparable. Saying player ‘x’ waived is pretty meaningless. Fleury might be a decent example, have to look into that one.

 

[Leafs87]

I picked Willy because Marner is already overpaid and will likely ask for even more on his next deal. It’s just not sustainable to have that much money tied to 3/4 forwards. Especially now that we’ll be getting 30+ years as well.

 

[PromisedLand]

You claimed cap hell... not if the allocation was good.

Regardless, the cap situation for next year is hardly bad... Matthews' contract is the raising cap, and Nylander's is Klingberg's... Brodie apparently sucks, and so does Samsanov.... we have a lot of cap being wasted apparently so next year will be better.

Quck preview of Leafs roster for 2024-24 season (incorporating the cap increase): Cap space 34 million
Roster 11 players

- Re-sign Nylander (10.5 AAV* My guess) with now total 12 players on the roster

Leaves about 23.5 million to fill the roster spots below:
What kind of "quality" are you expecting to have with 23.5 million left to spend on the roster given the 4 guys are taking about 45M+ of the 87 million cap space (about 52%) and all 4 are forwards.

 

[LeafGrief]

Nylander is a star hockey player having a career year. If we pay him 11m, we will regret it.

Marner is less of a hockey player and moreso the physical manifestation of a swirling mess of narratives. He's the golden boy, the local kid who was the chosen one, who seems to be eternally tormented by the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. Doug Gilmour, flipping pucks over the glass, hockey dad from hell fighting people on twitter, this guy is anything but a normal hockey player. The actual human being Mitch Marner has absolutely sick talent, but mentally he's got to be the weirdest hockey player I've ever seen. Wound up tighter than (insert favourite tasteless metaphor here) and prone to implosions when we need a hockey player to lead us.

Marner is more talented than Nylander, there's no real doubt to me about it. But I don't think Marner can win in Toronto, he's got too much going against him mentally. If you love him, let him go somewhere else where he can be free.

That's what I'd do. What the Leafs are going to do is let Nylander walk as a UFA this summer and re-up Marner next summer to a 12m contract that comes with the captaincy.

 

[wingman75]

As dynamic as Mitch is, and as good defensively as he is, the amount of cap space he takes up could be used to fill some holes. If these two seasons are what Willie is, we can move on from Mitch.

From my perspective, he is a mentally weak natural point-getter with a lack of leadership skills.

If we got the best of Mitch every night, I would probably vote to keep him.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marner still has more playoff points than Nylander does though. Those crucial, latter games can't occur if the team doesn't first win enough of the initial games. No doubt that the team absolutely needs more from multiple sources (Marner included) if it wishes to win the biggest games of all more often than it currently does.

I'm not moved by this "point to someone else" defence. And even if I was, Marner makes about 4 million a year more than Nylander so he should be outscoring him by a lot. I just had a quick peek at the numbers - over the last 4 years, Marner has 30 playoff points to Nylander's 29, but Nylander has 14 goals compared to 5 for Marner. If you're trying to make Marner look good, you didn't pick a good example here.

Here are Marner's playoff numbers, read 'em and weep.

Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

 

[hurdemz]

Marner is a weak, slow player. He feasts during the regular season when intensity wanes from game to game. He doesn’t have the speed or strength to battle through when time and space closes.

With Matthews struggling right now, you would think maybe his $11mil teammate would be able to fill that void, but it’s Knies that has stepped up.

It’s time to send this twerp packing

What an absolute horrible take on marner. Also, knies has been okay, but not a top player on this team. He'll get better every year.

 

[ToneDog]

I think being a toronto kid he feels there so much pressure on him. I don’t think Mitch can handle the pressure. He will thrive in a smaller market where there is no pressure on him.

Send him to Columbus and bring Fantilli home.