Speculation: Guess the AAV of the pending Draisaitl deal

[brentashton]

Matthews is probably the contract they're looking at. He's probably not worth as much on a 4-year deal, but if he's signing an additional 3-4 years that's definitely going to bump the AAV up. I'm thinking 13.8 ish

Drai probably fetches 15mx 7 = 110 M on the open market. If I were him I’m looking for that 110 number, maybe over 8, which would be a sizeable discount but recognizing he will have aged out at that point . 110/8 still works out to 13.75. If they got him for that it would be a win for the team as the cap will also be going up over the life of this one.

 

[rickysusedsht]

14 mill Drai 16 mill McDavid both on max contracts...which will lead to Nurse getting moved next summer in a multi player deal . More than I would want to pay since they will be declining but I also feel they got Drai cheap at 8 million and he will collect on this one now to make up for it.

 

[brentashton]

14 mill Drai 16 mill McDavid both on max contracts...which will lead to Nurse getting moved next summer in a multi player deal . More than I would want to pay since they will be declining but I also feel they got Drai cheap at 8 million and he will collect on this one now to make up for it.

This would be a win-win-win.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Drai probably fetches 15mx 7 = 110 M on the open market. If I were him I’m looking for that 110 number, maybe over 8, which would be a sizeable discount but recognizing he will have aged out at that point . 110/8 still works out to 13.75. If they got him for that it would be a win for the team as the cap will also be going up over the life of this one.

Agreed (though I'd say closer to 14 if we're nitpicking) and I think he takes a discount for us and the 8th year will help)

the longer term usually reduces the price when we are talking about an older player.

Agreed.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

8 x 14.4 is my guesstimate.

 

[tardigrade81]

I’ve been on the 13.25 x 8 train for a while now, will stick with that.

Be prepared to drink

No matter what !

 

[timekeep]

Well, I was waiting for a final sign to pull the trigger on this:

View attachment 903472
Dual Fuel! Natural Gas and can use wood at the same time. This is to replace my old wood burning Pizza Oven.

@Bryanbryoil I'll check shipping times and rates for both of us to arrive.

@5 Mins 4 Ftg Don't worry, I'll also make BBQ

@tardigrade81 Bring Schnapps. I'm a girly-drink type of guy

Looks like beauty, I have a little Ooni, wouldn't mind upgrading but need to move some of the other grills first.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

I mentioned this in the other thread too
Now Seravalli is saying Draisaitl won't be taking a discount and that $14 million is "the starting point" and "will be an AAV record setter"

 

[powerserge]

OMG I'm hitting 30 and making 14 to 16 million for 8 years.

Henrique going from 6 to 3 mil at 34
Perry going from 8.5 to playing at league minimum or 1 mil (aside from Chicago) past few years after hitting 34-35.
Skinner from 9 mil to 3 mil at 32

Yeah you can make arguments that Drai is the better player (he is), still does not defeat the argument players are playing here for less right now due to cup potential. Take max $ you lose your cup potential in as soon as a year from now.

Drai will be good til he hits 33-34, after that huge question marks. I would say pay Drai his 14 for the 1st 4 years, then 2-3 mil for the last 4 years to compare to all the still relevant star older players taking discounts just to play in the league. Average it out...

Perry has done everything that Drai still wishes to do and been Mr Clutch, at 38-39 he can't keep up anymore. No players are the same after 34-35, especially in their late 30's. Really getting sick of this. If Drai was 25-27 when signing this new deal, sure. You are buying prime UFA years. In this case we are not buying his prime UFA years.

Yep, just trolling... If Oilers just go for this, not sure what to say.

 

[CupofOil]

We'll see how much he values winning. Now Drai is well within his rights to get the bag but when you're that filthy rich already, is it really that much of a hit to your lifestyle to take a minor but meaningful paycut? That's extra $1m or so/yr could come in really handy during a winning window.

In other words, if he takes 8 years $14m+/yr, I won't begrudge him for that but I don't think he's serious about winning in that case. I think it'll be 8 years $13.5m which is fair I'd say, a bit of a paycut but about in the range of what his market value should be.
I always thought of Drai to be the type of guy to maximize his market value and demand absolute top dollar so I'm probably wishcasting the $13.5m number.

 

[CupofOil]

Drai already gave us a "deal" on the first contract. I'm sure his agent will use this. I doubt he feels obligated to do so again. I hope we don't cave & give him 15m though...

He did not give a deal on the first contract at the time. He was actually overpaid at the time compared to his comparables who were making far less.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I mentioned this in the other thread too
Now Seravalli is saying Draisaitl won't be taking a discount and that $14 million is "the starting point" and "will be an AAV record setter"

Wow that would be big news. Can you share a link, I'd like to check it out.

 

[McOilers97]

Drai already gave us a "deal" on the first contract. I'm sure his agent will use this. I doubt he feels obligated to do so again. I hope we don't cave & give him 15m though...

If he thought he was giving us a "deal" he wouldn't have signed for 8 years at that number. $8.5m was pretty massive back in 2017. In hindsight it was a great deal for the team, but he doesn't get to be like "I signed for below market value back in 2017" now.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Wow that would be big news. Can you share a link, I'd like to check it out.

It was on the radio in Calgary this morning. I think they might post the shows later as a pod cast but I'm not certain

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I mentioned this in the other thread too
Now Seravalli is saying Draisaitl won't be taking a discount and that $14 million is "the starting point" and "will be an AAV record setter"

I have maintained this for several years. He was severely underpaid for his first contract and will get paid now. His agent knows the cap will be well above where it is now over the term of the contract and on the open market he probably is worth 15-16+.

It is what it is.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

well there
that was easy to find ha ha

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[FlameChampion]

We will see what he signs for. It might not be exactly a blank cheque situation but the Oilers will be pretty generous with him. Its upto him if he wants to take less to have more to go around. Its his right and his decision.

I do wonder what guys on the team think when leadership core are paid so much. I find hard to believe there isn’t some resentment, but who knows. But we will see what the actual number comes in at.

 

[barry halls]

If he’s not signed by the end of next week then I’m guessing 8 x 13.5 with another team next summer.

I predict the next leak from 2 Mutts or elsewhere will be that talks haven’t gone great and both sides agree to put it on the back burner until the end of the season.

I hope I am wrong, but increasingly it’s starting to feel like Leon’s camp are enacting a clever strategy whereby Leon gets to have one more run in Edmonton then leave as a UFA, and the blame will fall entirely on Oilers management for not paying up.

 

[FlameChampion]

I have maintained this for several years. He was severely underpaid for his first contract and will get paid now. His agent knows the cap will be well above where it is now over the term of the contract and on the open market he probably is worth 15-16+.

It is what it is.

I kind of dislike the narrative that hes been underpaid personally. He obviously outperformed his last contract but I think he was more than fairly paid the day he signed the last contract. He was coming off a good playoffs but he wasn’t super established when he signed it. There was some risk on the Oilers side of that deal.

But I have no doubt that there’s part of him that feels hes been underpaid. And I agree he would get paid handsomely on the open market.

Its upto him ultimately to decide what he wants.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Remember too Frank has been all over the map on this topic too, I'd take what he says with a big grain of salt

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I mentioned this in the other thread too
Now Seravalli is saying Draisaitl won't be taking a discount and that $14 million is "the starting point" and "will be an AAV record setter"

Cripes. Leon's great but that's a bit tough to swallow.

 

[powerserge]

Drai 12.5 or less to give the team a chance at multiple playoff opportunities and McD/Bouch need to follow suit. Can he get more on the open market, yes. Can he and his buddy play together for their careers anywhere else, no. Oilers offer something that no one else can do elsewhere then there is the incentive for discount. Or you have no choice to trade a player while the chips are up.

To all of those thinking Drai gets max money (15-16 mil), on the open market for the right team. If Drai wants over 13 then to my dismay, we need to talk other options. We would get a haul for Drai indeed. McD not willing to stay would be by his own (Drai) doing to put $ before team.

There are no "I"s in team, we have 3 of them to deal with, see what happens so let's see.

 

[TB12]

OMG I'm hitting 30 and making 14 to 16 million for 8 years.

Henrique going from 6 to 3 mil at 34
Perry going from 8.5 to playing at league minimum or 1 mil (aside from Chicago) past few years after hitting 34-35.
Skinner from 9 mil to 3 mil at 32

Yeah you can make arguments that Drai is the better player (he is), still does not defeat the argument players are playing here for less right now due to cup potential. Take max $ you lose your cup potential in as soon as a year from now.

Drai will be good til he hits 33-34, after that huge question marks. I would say pay Drai his 14 for the 1st 4 years, then 2-3 mil for the last 4 years to compare to all the still relevant star older players taking discounts just to play in the league. Average it out...

Perry has done everything that Drai still wishes to do and been Mr Clutch, at 38-39 he can't keep up anymore. No players are the same after 34-35, especially in their late 30's. Really getting sick of this. If Drai was 25-27 when signing this new deal, sure. You are buying prime UFA years. In this case we are not buying his prime UFA years.

Yep, just trolling... If Oilers just go for this, not sure what to say.

You're not trolling, you're just repeating the same points over and over and over and.....

 

[CanadasTeam99]

Drai 12.5 or less to give the team a chance at multiple playoff opportunities and McD/Bouch need to follow suit. Can he get more on the open market, yes. Can he and his buddy play together for their careers anywhere else, no. Oilers offer something that no one else can do elsewhere then there is the incentive for discount. Or you have no choice to trade a player while the chips are up.

To all of those thinking Drai gets max money (15-16 mil), on the open market for the right team. If Drai wants over 13 then to my dismay, we need to talk other options. We would get a haul for Drai indeed. McD not willing to stay would be by his own (Drai) doing to put $ before team.

There are no "I"s in team, we have 3 of them to deal with, see what happens so let's see.

Darnell says "Hold my beer"

 

[Drivesaitl]

We'll see how much he values winning. Now Drai is well within his rights to get the bag but when you're that filthy rich already, is it really that much of a hit to your lifestyle to take a minor but meaningful paycut? That's extra $1m or so/yr could come in really handy during a winning window.

In other words, if he takes 8 years $14m+/yr, I won't begrudge him for that but I don't think he's serious about winning in that case. I think it'll be 8 years $13.5m which is fair I'd say, a bit of a paycut but about in the range of what his market value should be.
I always thought of Drai to be the type of guy to maximize his market value and demand absolute top dollar so I'm probably wishcasting the $13.5m number.

I can't honestly see the rationale for this. Drai plays for an org that horrifically blows bucks on players and contracts that are unfounded. 9M for Nurse, 5M for Campbell, etc.

Leaving 1M on the table does next to nothing to contribute winning. The club is almost guaranteed to instead misspend that somewhere else.

I'll say that Drai's play on ice is indicative of him being as serious about winning as pretty much anybody. Has little to do with the amount he or his agent expects to be paid. As many have said whatever it ends up being he's more than earned it. We just finished 8yrs of a superstar value contract that was best value in the league. Further to my point that fantastic deal wasn't parlayed into winning either.

So on a logical basis if the Oilers didn't win while having a stupendous value Drai contract then it negates your argument if you follow what I'm saying.