Speculation: Guess the AAV of the pending Draisaitl deal

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What will the AAV be of 29’s pending contract


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powerserge

Registered User
Oct 12, 2022
98
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Darnell says "Hold my beer"
Yep hold my beer as other teams win cups and we don't. I want our team to win, it is a disservice to not give McD the best opportunity every year if he stays for another 9-10 years. What does it take? We will see.
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
48,449
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Islands in the stream.
I kind of dislike the narrative that hes been underpaid personally. He obviously outperformed his last contract but I think he was more than fairly paid the day he signed the last contract. He was coming off a good playoffs but he wasn’t super established when he signed it. There was some risk on the Oilers side of that deal.

But I have no doubt that there’s part of him that feels hes been underpaid. And I agree he would get paid handsomely on the open market.

Its upto him ultimately to decide what he wants.
AS per end of last season Drai was around # 50 in NHL payscale. 54 other NHL players were paid as much or more than Leon. That erases the notion that Drai being underpaid is any kind of narrative. Its cold hard fact and has been for the vast majority of the contract and at least 7/8 of the seasons under it.



Compound that with Drai playing in a Canadian smaller market where there is very little opportunity for huge sponsorship income that there would be elsewhere. Next, a market that is likely not that attractive for his actress spouse or the many people that come to see him from Germany. While they all comment that Edmonton is nice Drai himself has expanded multiple times he just doesn't take to Edmonton as a City. I mean he's from Cologne Germany. Its understandable he doesn't think Edmonton as a city is fantastic (albeit he loves the fans)

I don't know how this shakes out and primarily because none of us know any of the inner dialogue that has gone on between Leon and Connor. Its undoubtable they would have talked about next contracts in length, and being their most candid with each other, whom they trust. We're not privy to any of this and whether Leon or Connor or both have made other decisions.

Thats the sobering possibility that could exist.
 

5 Mins 4 Ftg

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Apr 3, 2016
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I kind of dislike the narrative that hes been underpaid personally. He obviously outperformed his last contract but I think he was more than fairly paid the day he signed the last contract. He was coming off a good playoffs but he wasn’t super established when he signed it. There was some risk on the Oilers side of that deal.

But I have no doubt that there’s part of him that feels hes been underpaid. And I agree he would get paid handsomely on the open market.

Its upto him ultimately to decide what he wants.

Certainly the day he signed it he was valued at what that market was but he clearly outperformed the deal thus he was underpaid over the bulk of his contract. Now he is a position to cash in and cash in he will. That said he may still be underpaid based on what he might get on the open market.

End of the day it’ll be a big nut to crack.

Shame on the Oilers for wasting his contract due to mostly awful trades and signing players like Lucic, Nurse, and Campbell. Oilers failed to take advantage of it.
 

FlameChampion

Registered User
Jul 13, 2011
14,359
16,698
AS per end of last season Drai was around # 50 in NHL payscale. 54 other NHL players were paid as much or more than Leon. That erases the notion that Drai being underpaid is any kind of narrative. Its cold hard fact and has been for the vast majority of the contract and at least 7/8 of the seasons under it.



Compound that with Drai playing in a Canadian smaller market where there is very little opportunity for huge sponsorship income that there would be elsewhere. Next, a market that is likely not that attractive for his actress spouse or the many people that come to see him from Germany. While they all comment that Edmonton is nice Drai himself has expanded multiple times he just doesn't take to Edmonton as a City. I mean he's from Cologne Germany. Its understandable he doesn't think Edmonton as a city is fantastic (albeit he loves the fans)

I don't know how this shakes out and primarily because none of us know any of the inner dialogue that has gone on between Leon and Connor. Its undoubtable they would have talked about next contracts in length, and being their most candid with each other, whom they trust. We're not privy to any of this and whether Leon or Connor or both have made other decisions.

Thats the sobering possibility that could exist.

Well I imagine he will be the highest paid player in the league if he signs this offseason.
 

Canovin

1% is the new 11.5%
Oct 27, 2010
19,127
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Certainly the day he signed it he was valued at what that market was but he clearly outperformed the deal thus he was underpaid over the bulk of his contract. Now he is a position to cash in and cash in he will. That said he may still be underpaid based on what he might get on the open market.

End of the day it’ll be a big nut to crack.

Shame on the Oilers for wasting his contract due to mostly awful trades and signing players like Lucic, Nurse, and Campbell. Oilers failed to take advantage of it.
Giving Drai 15M would fall under the Lucic, Nurse, Campbell type deals.
 

94 Oil Drops

SKINNER(S!)
Sep 19, 2019
5,178
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I voted 14.5-15 million. I think Leon is going to resign but not until late into the next regular season. Both sides are probably going to go into a stalemate and this is going to take way longer than it should. I also think he's going to be extremely expensive and a lot of people on here are going to be angry about the price tag.
 

fireantz

Registered User
Mar 15, 2007
729
604
My guess Oilers offered a bit less than Mackinnon (12.6) while Drai wants 14.5. Expect them to settle 8 x Matthews ( 13.25) plus a bit. So $13.3 AAV
 

Behind Enemy Lines

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
16,365
18,032
Vancouver
AS per end of last season Drai was around # 50 in NHL payscale. 54 other NHL players were paid as much or more than Leon. That erases the notion that Drai being underpaid is any kind of narrative. Its cold hard fact and has been for the vast majority of the contract and at least 7/8 of the seasons under it.



Compound that with Drai playing in a Canadian smaller market where there is very little opportunity for huge sponsorship income that there would be elsewhere. Next, a market that is likely not that attractive for his actress spouse or the many people that come to see him from Germany. While they all comment that Edmonton is nice Drai himself has expanded multiple times he just doesn't take to Edmonton as a City. I mean he's from Cologne Germany. Its understandable he doesn't think Edmonton as a city is fantastic (albeit he loves the fans)

I don't know how this shakes out and primarily because none of us know any of the inner dialogue that has gone on between Leon and Connor. Its undoubtable they would have talked about next contracts in length, and being their most candid with each other, whom they trust. We're not privy to any of this and whether Leon or Connor or both have made other decisions.

Thats the sobering possibility that could exist.
I wouldn't sweat things too much. But clearly this is a more nuanced negotiation that just sign here. Regarding the contract, he got a fair market deal that bet on him reaching his potential within it to tilt toward some team value at back end of it. He happened to destroy it early having chosen long-term security of maximum term. Fair negotiation.

His sponsorship and endorsement potential is in Germany, a much bigger and lucrative situation in which he is a unicorn superstar. He's a brand ambassador of global brand Puma and I'm sure other German based companies: PUMA welcomes NHL All-Star Leon Draisaitl as brand ambassador.

His fiancee is largely a B actress doing Hallmark movies which are shot on the cheap in lower mainland BC, Ontario and other secondary states. He career aspirations are quite limited in that regard. Easy to fly to those locations versus needing to be living there.

So while he has a somewhat cosmopolitan sensibilities as a second generation German royalty hockey player, Draisaitl is still a guy that chose to go to Prince Albert Saskatchewan as a young teenager to play against top competition. Now his tastes and lifestyle have no doubt matured, he seems laser focused on winning a Cup and with a deep bonded brother in McDavid.

No certainty ever in these situations. But barring a huge shock I personally feel very comfortable
that the deal gets done and Draisaitl stays an Oiler. Might push a bit more than anticipated but we wait and see.
 
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Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
48,449
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Islands in the stream.
I wouldn't sweat things too much. But clearly this is a more nuanced negotiation that just sign here. Regarding the contract, he got a fair market deal that bet on him reaching his potential within it to tilt toward some team value at back end of it. He happened to destroy it early having chosen long-term security of maximum term. Fair negotiation.

His sponsorship and endorsement potential is in Germany, a much bigger and lucrative situation in which he is a unicorn superstar. He's a brand ambassador of global brand Puma and I'm sure other German based companies: PUMA welcomes NHL All-Star Leon Draisaitl as brand ambassador.

His fiancee is largely a B actress doing Hallmark movies which are shot on the cheap in lower mainland BC, Ontario and other secondary states. He career aspirations are quite limited in that regard. Easy to fly to those locations versus needing to be living there.

So while he has a somewhat cosmopolitan sensibilities as a second generation German royalty hockey player, Draisaitl is still a guy that chose to go to Prince Albert Saskatchewan as a young teenager to play against top competition. Now his tastes and lifestyle have no doubt matured, he seems laser focused on winning a Cup and with a deep bonded brother in McDavid.

No certainty ever in these situations. But barring a huge shock I personally feel very comfortable
that the deal gets done and Draisaitl stays an Oiler. Might push a bit more than anticipated but we wait and see.
Theres probably some reason to worry. An easier deal would've been done by now. Seems like theres impasse, and its been claimed that sides are aways apart.

But I heed as well that Edmonton is uncharted waters as far as superstars here. We've had a decade of Connor and Leon. Gretz was gone by that time. We really haven't had any superstar play here for more than a decade ever. One could argue Messier if put into that category but along time ago, and from here. So a unique case, and even he sought other pastures.

Our own notions of what life is here of course far different. I like it here. I don't need cosmopolitan spaces, my happiness is internal. I'm easily sated. But for superstars in hockey mad Edmonton you cannot walk the streets without being accosted. you can't go to a restaurant, bar, etc. As a hockey superstar you leave a Beatles life without the same perks and fame and notoriety. Just that you are superstars in Canadian markets. Its no accident prior superstars left to play in the states where they can frolic in NY-LA allstar places. It would be very appealing to such players, and usually is to have a more normal life and be able to have, and do normal things. This isn't really available in Edmonton and fans here are also at times far less friendly than they may think. Even going up to celebs in public places can be perceived as aggressive, intrusive.

Now add that Drai has been the focal point here for years for shit and innuendo from the press. Not even bordering on insult and slander, it was all that. Now I don't think Drai is thin skinned to let it bother him but he's always kind of been the Keith Richards to Paul McCartney. Or the Stones to the Beatles. The press are gonna slag one anytime things go not well, and not McDavid. It falls on Drai to be the focal point of criticism, and its from the fans too.

Nobody knows for sure what its been all like here for Drai, and he won't in Germanic tendency reveal any of that. Stoic to a fault we are.

We'll be very lucky if McD and Drai both choose to play out their careers here but we've never had anything like this so I don't assume it.
 
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Behind Enemy Lines

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
16,365
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Vancouver
Theres probably some reason to worry. An easier deal would've been done by now. Seems like theres impasse, and its been claimed that sides are aways apart.

But I heed as well that Edmonton is uncharted waters as far as superstars here. We've had a decade of Connor and Leon. Gretz was gone by that time. We really haven't had any superstar play here for more than a decade ever. One could argue Messier if put into that category but along time ago, and from here. So a unique case, and even he sought other pastures.

Our own notions of what life is here of course far different. I like it here. I don't need cosmopolitan spaces, my happiness is internal. I'm easily sated. But for superstars in hockey mad Edmonton you cannot walk the streets without being accosted. you can't go to a restaurant, bar, etc. As a hockey superstar you leave a Beatles life without the same perks and fame and notoriety. Just that you are superstars in Canadian markets. Its no accident prior superstars left to play in the states where they can frolic in NY-LA allstar places. It would be very appealing to such players, and usually is to have a more normal life and be able to have, and do normal things. This isn't really available in Edmonton and fans here are also at times far less friendly than they may think. Even going up to celebs in public places can be perceived as aggressive, intrusive.

Now add that Drai has been the focal point here for years for shit and innuendo from the press. Not even bordering on insult and slander, it was all that. Now I don't think Drai is thin skinned to let it bother him but he's always kind of been the Keith Richards to Paul McCartney. Or the Stones to the Beatles. The press are gonna slag one anytime things go not well, and not McDavid. It falls on Drai to be the focal point of criticism, and its from the fans too.

Nobody knows for sure what its been all like here for Drai, and he won't in Germanic tendency reveal any of that. Stoic to a fault we are.

We'll be very lucky if McD and Drai both choose to play out their careers here but we've never had anything like this so I don't assume it.
The worry is where the final number comes in less than go or stay imo. It's beyond ability to control so I trust the process that Oilers will pay what it takes and that Draisaitl values how the owner, organization and fanbase have treated him as royalty.

I cannot imagine a better hockey market and experience than Edmonton showed with this playoff run. Life is different for a player in Canadian markets but there are immense payoffs as well to go with the challenges that are too much for some. The media are a buzzing fly and largely inconsequential but an important adjunct to the business keeping players, teams, the league front and centre in front of the public relied upon for eyeballs, precise attention, and cold hard cash. Draisaitl can wear his heart on his sleeve at times which is observable and draws scrutiny. But the guy is wired to win and often that frustration is directed inward. He's a second generation pro hockey player so deeply steeped with the occupation and all that comes with it.

McDavid and Draisaitl are this owner's golden goose. By reports he goes over and beyond for team comforts and to ensure all needs are met (the Super Bowl party in Montreal instead of flying out while it was on was cited as something like hundred grand investment in worker satisfaction). Draisaitl has called Katz the best owner in hockey. There's a lot of compelling reasons for staying but never any certainty. Oiler fans deserve it after watching the best team assembled in the 80s taken apart in a yard sale because the game's economics were changing.

I'd be very sad if Draisaitl and/or McDavid chose to leave. But at least in this modern era this organization is a financial powerhouse to ensure the financial aspect is there unlike the 80s band of brothers who left because the resources weren't there to compete in a fast changing landscape. We wait.
 

Took a pill in Sbisa

2showToffoliIwascool
Apr 23, 2004
16,581
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If he’s not signed by the end of next week then I’m guessing 8 x 13.5 with another team next summer.

I predict the next leak from 2 Mutts or elsewhere will be that talks haven’t gone great and both sides agree to put it on the back burner until the end of the season.

I hope I am wrong, but increasingly it’s starting to feel like Leon’s camp are enacting a clever strategy whereby Leon gets to have one more run in Edmonton then leave as a UFA, and the blame will fall entirely on Oilers management for not paying up.

He's not allowed to sign for any more than 7 years with another team next summer.
 
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Mr Positive

Cap Crunch Incoming
Nov 20, 2013
37,515
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I'm not worried yet. I'd say that even if there's nothing signed before preseason it's not a big deal. I'd start worrying if the regular season starts without a deal.

He's not allowed to sign for any more than 7 years with another team next summer.
Still, I'd Draisaitl does want to leave Edmonton the argument still stands. But yes, that extra year is a great thing we can offer
 

kevy9999

Registered User
Mar 10, 2023
453
310
I voted 14.5-15 million. I think Leon is going to resign but not until late into the next regular season. Both sides are probably going to go into a stalemate and this is going to take way longer than it should. I also think he's going to be extremely expensive and a lot of people on here are going to be angry about the price tag.
Lol.lol they aren't signing late into the regular season. It will be done soon
 

Kirby

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Carolina just signed Seth Jarvis to an eight year deal for $63.2M. However, due to a deferred salary structure, instead of the deal having a cap hit of $7.9M per season ($63.8M divided by eight years), the cap hit is actually only $7.5M per season, saving the Canes $400K per season on the cap. This is allowable under the current CBA, and is actually the second deferred deal Carolina signed this off season. Jaccob Slavin signed one which saves Carolina $100K per season over the term of his deal, bringing total cap hit savings of $500K per season between the two deals.

In my opinion this is the delay is the Leon Draisaitl negotiations. If Leon is wanting a deal for $112M ($14M standard AAV), you could spread the payment out beyond the right years to lower the cap hit down to something more manageable (let's say $12.5M cap hit, or $100M over the 8 years with $12M deferred year 9 and beyond). This could be huge for the Oilers and extending the Championship window, especially if McDavid and Bouchard would be willing to do the same thing. Depending on how much is deferred, all three players signing deferred salary deals could allow the Oilers to straight sign a 2nd Pair RD with no changes to the roster in the future.

Here is Frank S. Talking about the deal, which is expected to be registered Sunday for Seth Jarvis:

 

5 Mins 4 Ftg

Life is better with no expectations.
Sponsor
Apr 3, 2016
50,840
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Carolina just signed Seth Jarvis to an eight year deal for $63.2M. However, due to a deferred salary structure, instead of the deal having a cap hit of $7.9M per season ($63.8M divided by eight years), the cap hit is actually only $7.5M per season, saving the Canes $400K per season on the cap. This is allowable under the current CBA, and is actually the second deferred deal Carolina signed this off season. Jaccob Slavin signed one which saves Carolina $100K per season over the term of his deal, bringing total cap hit savings of $500K per season between the two deals.

In my opinion this is the delay is the Leon Draisaitl negotiations. If Leon is wanting a deal for $112M ($14M standard AAV), you could spread the payment out beyond the right years to lower the cap hit down to something more manageable (let's say $12.5M cap hit, or $100M over the 8 years with $12M deferred year 9 and beyond). This could be huge for the Oilers and extending the Championship window, especially if McDavid and Bouchard would be willing to do the same thing. Depending on how much is deferred, all three players signing deferred salary deals could allow the Oilers to straight sign a 2nd Pair RD with no changes to the roster in the future.

Here is Frank S. Talking about the deal, which is expected to be registered Sunday for Seth Jarvis:


I just posted this in the OOT thread. Oilers try this and Bettman will nix it because Oilers.

This will be killed in the upcoming CBA either way. It’s clear cap circumvention and the poorer teams like Winnipeg and Anaheim will not want this as it gives richer teams a leg up
 
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Stealth1616

Registered User
Oct 12, 2019
1,650
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Carolina just signed Seth Jarvis to an eight year deal for $63.2M. However, due to a deferred salary structure, instead of the deal having a cap hit of $7.9M per season ($63.8M divided by eight years), the cap hit is actually only $7.5M per season, saving the Canes $400K per season on the cap. This is allowable under the current CBA, and is actually the second deferred deal Carolina signed this off season. Jaccob Slavin signed one which saves Carolina $100K per season over the term of his deal, bringing total cap hit savings of $500K per season between the two deals.

In my opinion this is the delay is the Leon Draisaitl negotiations. If Leon is wanting a deal for $112M ($14M standard AAV), you could spread the payment out beyond the right years to lower the cap hit down to something more manageable (let's say $12.5M cap hit, or $100M over the 8 years with $12M deferred year 9 and beyond). This could be huge for the Oilers and extending the Championship window, especially if McDavid and Bouchard would be willing to do the same thing. Depending on how much is deferred, all three players signing deferred salary deals could allow the Oilers to straight sign a 2nd Pair RD with no changes to the roster in the future.

Here is Frank S. Talking about the deal, which is expected to be registered Sunday for Seth Jarvis:

Important to note that there needs to be some kind of benefit to Draisaitl for signing this type of deal. Deferring money typically wound be worse long-term for him. But there are many factors that would go into this
 

LTIR

Registered User
Nov 8, 2013
27,317
14,567
Lol.lol they aren't signing late into the regular season. It will be done soon
What so funny?
They might not even sign him until closer to playoffs or even let him play in playoffs as a pending UFA. Draisaitl with a NMC holds all the cards.
 

CanadasTeam99

Registered User
Jul 22, 2024
167
193
Common drai, do a deferred deal. We have strong ownership. You have grossed over 75 million cdn already.
 

Frank the Tank

The Godfather
Aug 15, 2005
16,251
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Chicago, IL
I just posted this in the OOT thread. Oilers try this and Bettman will nix it because Oilers.

This will be killed in the upcoming CBA either way. It’s clear cap circumvention and the poorer teams like Winnipeg and Anaheim will not want this as it gives richer teams a leg up
Typical NHL. Leave open a loophole on something as critical as AAV (LTIR, deferred money). Let teams exploit these loopholes repeatedly with each one incrementally creeping closer to the absurd until one team crosses the arbitrary line. Then the league comes down hard on only that one team.
 
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