I wouldn't sweat things too much. But clearly this is a more nuanced negotiation that just sign here. Regarding the contract, he got a fair market deal that bet on him reaching his potential within it to tilt toward some team value at back end of it. He happened to destroy it early having chosen long-term security of maximum term. Fair negotiation.
His sponsorship and endorsement potential is in Germany, a much bigger and lucrative situation in which he is a unicorn superstar. He's a brand ambassador of global brand Puma and I'm sure other German based companies:
PUMA welcomes NHL All-Star Leon Draisaitl as brand ambassador.
His fiancee is largely a B actress doing Hallmark movies which are shot on the cheap in lower mainland BC, Ontario and other secondary states. He career aspirations are quite limited in that regard. Easy to fly to those locations versus needing to be living there.
So while he has a somewhat cosmopolitan sensibilities as a second generation German royalty hockey player, Draisaitl is still a guy that chose to go to Prince Albert Saskatchewan as a young teenager to play against top competition. Now his tastes and lifestyle have no doubt matured, he seems laser focused on winning a Cup and with a deep bonded brother in McDavid.
No certainty ever in these situations. But barring a huge shock I personally feel very comfortable
that the deal gets done and Draisaitl stays an Oiler. Might push a bit more than anticipated but we wait and see.