LeBrun: Guentzel: Pens want prospects over picks - Carolina favorite

[WetcoastOrca]

And you're wrong. A 1st and a B prospect is what gets you Andrew Copp as a rental, not Jake Guentzel.

What you're offering is more in line with Tyler Bertuzzi (traded for a 1st and 4th last year) than Guentzel.

I also find it hilarious how a "1st and a B prospect" is fair for Guentzel, when Vancouver literally paid more than that for Lindholm barely over a month ago. A 1st and a B prospect was literally not even enough for Lindholm a month ago, a trade your team made.

Brustewicz is a B prospect.
Look at the prospect rankings. As I said you’re not going to get a Hoglander level roster player and a 1st. You’re overrating Guentzel.
Your expectations aren’t reasonable.
Anyways, we’re going in circles at this point. I’m confident in my position but we will see what happens.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Canucks fans were insistent that Kuzmenko didn't have negative value at the time of the trade. So no, I don't buy that.

The Canucks paid a 1st, B prospect, another 3rd round prospect and a conditional 3rd round pick for Lindholm.

Lol okay bury your head in the sand then. His production relative to his cap hit clearly indicates he was a cap dump. He had negative value.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Brustewicz is a B prospect.
Look at the prospect rankings. As I said you’re not going to get a Hoglander level roster player and a 1st. You’re overrating Guentzel.
Your expectations aren’t reasonable.
Anyways, we’re going in circles at this point. I’m confident in my position but we will see what happens.

It's almost like that's exactly what I meant.

Name a single example of a Guentzel caliber winger being traded for a 1st and a B prospect. Literally a single example. You can't, because it hasn't happened.

My expectations are entirely reasonable here. You're just out to lunch and completely unaware what players actually cost in trades. You're literally saying Guentzel has less value than Lindholm in this thread.

 

[domaug]

Brustewicz is a B prospect.
Look at the prospect rankings. As I said you’re not going to get a Hoglander level roster player and a 1st. You’re overrating Guentzel.
Your expectations aren’t reasonable.
Anyways, we’re going in circles at this point. I’m confident in my position but we will see what happens.

this is cute and all, but you think Lindholm has more value than Guentzel and that's just not true.

 

[Empoleon8771]

this is cute and all, but you think Lindholm has more value than Guentzel and that's just not true.

The funny thing to me is that Tampa Bay traded a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th for Tanner Jeannot last year, but apparently Guentzel doesn't even have that kind of value.

Toronto traded a 1st and 2nd for Jake McCabe and Sam Lafferty. Can you spot the difference between McCabe and Lafferty versus Guentzel? Apparently there is no value difference there.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Let me ask you something, and I'm not trying to be a jerk. However you guys have never won a cup. You legitimately are in the mix, if a guy who's a proven playoff dynamo comes into your line up that could potentially put you guys over the top, what is that worth? Legit question.

Well that's just the thing. History shows there are so many variables in a given year, the best thing to do is to create a window of several years.

So we took our big swing with Lindholm, and will hopefully add one more 4/5 D and a flawed winger for semi low costs.

I don't like the idea of blowing our brains out because we HAVE to win the cup this year. I look at Boston last year having a record season and then a mediocre two weeks and the year is over.

We have some decent prospects for the first time in awhile, and a good team for the first time in a loooong time. I'm not keen to risk it all on one swing.

So Guentzel's value in a vacuum is higher than it is to our team. Pittsburgh has to hope that there are teams in situations where it makes sense to offer more (and there likely are), because if they circle back to us they will likely be disappointed by what we are at liberty to offer.

With the caveat that this changes if our GM loves Guentzel and thinks he will re-sign at a reasonable freight.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Why even come in here and post a lowball, unreasonable offer that will clearly be beat out by other teams?

At least in my eyes, I'm trying to talk about what I think a Guentzel to Vancouver trade would realistically look like. Guentzel isn't going to be traded to Vancouver for a "we don't want to pay fair value" offer. So what's even the point of posting that?

Because trades are complex and you have to consider the needs/wants/availability of other teams.

Sometimes you might have a wonderful player on the market, but the fit isn't there in terms of teams who can fit them, are competing, and have strong prospects to offer. So you get less than you hoped.

So this is a way of sussing out the market place.

As Canucks fans, I think we're saying, 'here is what we have to offer'. As a Penguins fan you are hoping that like 4 teams can beat that and will compete until the price goes up.
Sometimes that happens, sometimes it doesn't. If it doesn't, then your GM can circle back and compare our offer with similar offers.

Again, unless our braintrust thinks they can re-sign Guentzel at a reasonable rate that doesn't break our cap structure, the only way we get Guentzel is if things go poorly with you in terms of what other teams are willing to offer.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Cutting out all of the fat of the deal, Timo Meier was traded for basically Zetterlund, Mukhamadullin, a 2023 1st and a conditional 2024 2nd that could turn into a 1st last year. Meier did technically have 2 years of control left, but he had an obscene qualifying offer that made him a borderline rental ($10 million QO that would take him directly to UFA).

Do I think Guentzel will get that back? No, because Meier was younger and did technically have another year of control, albeit at a very unappealing AAV. But I bet the return is pretty dang similar to Zetterlund, Mukhamadullin and a 2023 1st in value. Using Vegas as an example, I see my expectation of Brisson, Cataford and a 2024 1st as entirely comparable to that.

Because trades are complex and you have to consider the needs/wants/availability of other teams.

Sometimes you might have a wonderful player on the market, but the fit isn't there in terms of teams who can fit them, are competing, and have strong prospects to offer. So you get less than you hoped.

So this is a way of sussing out the market place.

As Canucks fans, I think we're saying, 'here is what we have to offer'. As a Penguins fan you are hoping that like 4 teams can beat that and will compete until the price goes up.
Sometimes that happens, sometimes it doesn't. If it doesn't, then your GM can circle back and compare our offer with similar offers.

Again, unless our braintrust thinks they can re-sign Guentzel at a reasonable rate that doesn't break our cap structure, the only way we get Guentzel is if things go poorly with you in terms of what other teams are willing to offer.

Yes, this is all reasonable and correct. The market sets the price for Guentzel more than anything. I just see no reason to think that the market for Guentzel is anything but absurdly strong.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

I understand that teams aren't going to trade their absolute top tier prospects like Lekkerimaki, Nikishin or anyone like that for a rental Guentzel. I don't think there is a history of any rental pulling off a guy of that level. At the same time, I don't understand why there's an expectation that the best rental winger since Taylor Hall only brings back the price that a 2C goes for as a rental.

Claude Giroux forced Philly to only trade him to Florida, yet they still got back Tippett, a 1st and a 3rd. A lot of offers in here are even less than that.

I think you're forgetting that what Tippett has become is different than the frustration where it seemed like he was topping out as a low NHL tier (sadly meaning better than, but still not particularly good) Jake Virtanen.

You don't get to use hindsight bias to say, 'They got a 30 goal scorer and a 1st!".

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think you're forgetting that what Tippett has become is different than the frustration where it seemed like he was topping out as a low NHL tier (sadly meaning better than, but still not particularly good) Jake Virtanen.

You don't get to use hindsight bias to say, 'They got a 30 goal scorer and a 1st!".

I wasn't valuing Tippett like that.

At the time of the trade, Tippett was a 22 year old NHLer that had 32 points in 87 games with the Panthers in the previous 2 years. He was a 10th overall pick that had proven he was at least a NHL caliber player. I think that firmly puts his value at a 2nd at minimum.

Coincidentally:

-Tippett: 13 goals and 32 points in 87 games between 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 with the Panthers
-Hoglander: 22 goals and 36 points in 86 games between 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 with the Canucks.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

It’s always interesting watching these types of threads from an outsider’s perspective. I definitely think that since this is a website built around prospects, it skews and distorts things a bit. Not every great prospect will be a great player

 

[Ryder71]

Well that's just the thing. History shows there are so many variables in a given year, the best thing to do is to create a window of several years.

So we took our big swing with Lindholm, and will hopefully add one more 4/5 D and a flawed winger for semi low costs.

I don't like the idea of blowing our brains out because we HAVE to win the cup this year. I look at Boston last year having a record season and then a mediocre two weeks and the year is over.

We have some decent prospects for the first time in awhile, and a good team for the first time in a loooong time. I'm not keen to risk it all on one swing.

So Guentzel's value in a vacuum is higher than it is to our team. Pittsburgh has to hope that there are teams in situations where it makes sense to offer more (and there likely are), because if they circle back to us they will likely be disappointed by what we are at liberty to offer.

With the caveat that this changes if our GM loves Guentzel and thinks he will re-sign at a reasonable freight.

Who are you to say what JR and his regime are willing to offer? Clearly based on your posts you don't understand how JR views things. He generally will overpay for players he covets, how are you not understanding that? Your fanbase is clearly not thinking along the lines of your management.

YOU might not pay a price, but if JR sees Jake as a player to put you over, he'll pony up! He has time and time again.

 

[eviohh26]

These conservative mentalities are the reasons why these teams don't get to the promise land all that much. Teams like PIT, TB and Vegas who swing for the fences do.

Eh. Chicago and LA never really went crazy at trading. They had a plan and stuck to it. Few players joined them over the years but thats what happens when your winning.

As a Canuck fan I'm happy with the position the team is in and I'd prefer to sit on what we have and develop our players to extend our window rather than trade our future away and put a time frame on winning when our team has finally had a successful season for once.

 

[NWWisconsinDuck]

Ken Holland is gonna get this done, I feel it

 

[Shark Finn]

Dismantle the team.

 

[66-30-33]

Dismantle the team.

No, we still owe you a 1st and it wont be a lotto pick.

 

[Gary Bets Man]

If he won’t resign with us, I hope they find a suitor who can trade and sign for a big package of future picks… why get middling players to stay mediocre for the rebuild

They can’t make the playoffs with him, and they will be worse without him, no matter the player or prospect in return. Only sell for distant future please please please…

 

[Phrasing]

Who are you to say what JR and his regime are willing to offer? Clearly based on your posts you don't understand how JR views things. He generally will overpay for players he covets, how are you not understanding that? Your fanbase is clearly not thinking along the lines of your management.

YOU might not pay a price, but if JR sees Jake as a player to put you over, he'll pony up! He has time and time again.

Simmer down there.

 

[Ryder71]

Simmer down there.

Perfectly calm.

 

[lawrence]

A lot cheaper, but will it put you over the top? Probably not.

There’s no “1 move” that will take any team over the top.

 

[Ryder71]

There’s no “1 move” that will take any team over the top.

Well, Jakes the kind of player who could you much closer, I'll put it that way.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Who are you to say what JR and his regime are willing to offer? Clearly based on your posts you don't understand how JR views things. He generally will overpay for players he covets, how are you not understanding that? Your fanbase is clearly not thinking along the lines of your management.

YOU might not pay a price, but if JR sees Jake as a player to put you over, he'll pony up! He has time and time again.

Then there's no conversation to be had. You clearly have a chip on your shoulder about JR and have decided 'he will lmao epic overpay', which isn't based on reality but on your interpretation of how things went in Pittsburgh AFTER I might add he brought your team two Stanley Cups when everyone thought the Crosby generation of Penguins had missed their mark with bad 2010, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15 outcomes (for a cup or bust team).

So you're basing your opinion on two things.

1. What you hope will happen. You don't give a shit about Vancouver and want to milk us for what YOU hope the Penguins will get. It's not based in reality, but you're thinking with your emotions.

2. You have bitterness as an incredibly privileged Penguins fan because things went off the rails after TWO Stanley Cups. So you've decided that JR isn't so much a man, but a caricature of a man who will do whatever goofy thing you think is handy.

"Who are you to say what your team will offer"? GTFO with that. I'm an educated hockey fan who has been watching the Canucks closely for 30 years. I know we have your old braintrust, but I like to think I know something about my team.

Why even participate on these boards with other teams' fans if your only response is dismissiveness because deep down you know far more about everyone's team than they do?

 

[elitepete]

Canucks already got their forward. I’m guessing they’re in this to keep the price high for the Oilers and VGK.

 

[WTG]

Canucks aren't moving Hoglander; they literally can't unless they flip the entire franchise. Adding Guentzel is adding an 8th UFA. Hoglander has a 1.1m cap hit this year and next.

IMO, Hoglander is untouchable just based on that. He's got potential, and he's cost controlled, and that's what matters most. Canucks have like 5 UFAs on career years looking for raises. They were taking trade offers on Pettersson because he wouldn't commit, so they can plan for next year. Imagine what adding another UFA would do for next year's plans.

Dwahli mentioned that Canucks are looking for someone with a term rather than a UFA. My guess, they have some weak ass offer to Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh is just holding out till someone other team can beat that (they will) and that's how the canucks are "in" on Guentzel.

 

[lawrence]

Who are you to say what JR and his regime are willing to offer?

we are aware that he's mentioned that before in his book. We all saw that quotation, and I think we shouldn't take that into too context. Cause right now although hes mentioned that, he might not over pay around this time. Also hes not our GM. It's Alvin doing doing all the phone work right now.