Friedman: Guentzel extension with Canes almost done?

[NextGoalIsHuge]

Hm. To be upfront: I'd love to see what Jake could do next to EP40.
Though, as many can appreciate, I am hesitant to sign him to a long high-value deal. We've been burned before. Additionally, we would still have a few weak spots in the lineup. Roster balance might be better achieved by spreading that money around on lesser wingers and a D upgrade. /shrug.

Canes appear to have the $$$ to give Guentzel and I think Svechhammer has a point on the significance of an eight year.

I'm torn. I'll prolly get excited for the possibilities if the 'Nucks land him. Though, if the Canes retain his services I will not be too disappointed.

Now, if he goes to FA, There is always the possibility of a dark horse coming out an presenting a monstrous deal. Utah has some serious cash. just sayin....

July One is always a fun day. Fitting that it's Canada Day

 

[Rowlet]

Oh I thought they were up against it

the team has like 16m left to sign like 4 guys

They leak everything. How do you think Dhaliwal tweeted that Guentzel and Tanev were priorities 1 and 2 on the Canucks' list?

because Dhaliwal talks to the player agents, and those moves were already extremely obvious and good for views.

 

[Bleach Clean]

the team has like 16m left to sign like 4 guys

because Dhaliwal talks to the player agents, and those moves were already extremely obvious and good for views.

That implies no alternative source for Dhaliwal as well. How much do we have to discount from vetted sources before we accept any information from them?

Canucks management negotiates drop Intel when it suits them.

 

[Regal]

While that sounds good, its really a negligible cost. And there's also the possibility that he gets an injury and never even plays that age 38 season. Getting that extra year of job security is huge, and you know it would come with the full NTC and NMC over the last few years just to make sure he and his family have stability. You sacrifice maybe $750k-$1m a year up front to make sure you are making 2x what you would be making in that last year.

Money now is almost always worth more than money later though. In fact I’d argue that a 7 year deal that pays less overall but is bonus heavy and front loaded as much as possible would be worth a fair amount more than an 8 year deal where his pay and AAV are the same. Of course you can front load an 8 year deal as well, but there’s a lot of factors to consider when it comes to who is really offering the most.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806747751826468977

 

[Empoleon8771]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806747751826468977

Crazy that's all that Guentzel was asking for if that's the case. I was definitely wrong in assuming that he'd demand $9 million on that term to sign.

At the same time, it's weird that Carolina was only now willing to meet that ask.

 

[bleedgreen]

Crazy that's all that Guentzel was asking for if that's the case. I was definitely wrong in assuming that he'd demand $9 million on that term to sign.

At the same time, it's weird that Carolina was only now willing to meet that ask.

It takes him to 38 years old. Of course they tried to get him for less if they’re giving him 8 years. No one is expecting him to be a good player at 38.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It takes him to 38 years old. Of course they tried to get him for less if they’re giving him 8 years. No one is expecting him to be a good player at 38.

Guentzel at $8 million over at least years 1-4 of that deal is still underpaid by a fair amount.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

Crazy that's all that Guentzel was asking for if that's the case. I was definitely wrong in assuming that he'd demand $9 million on that term to sign.

At the same time, it's weird that Carolina was only now willing to meet that ask.

That could also be his most recent ask. Negotiations and all that.

 

[StickShift]

I will reiterate my opinion that it's weird that they've "met the offer" and it still seems to be somewhat in limbo/uncertain if things will get hammered out.

 

[bleedgreen]

I will reiterate my opinion that it's weird that they've "met the offer" and it still seems to be somewhat in limbo/uncertain if things will get hammered out.

I just saw that they “met the offer” in the last hour or two. Why would that be weird? There’s always a lot more to a contract than AAV and term.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I will reiterate my opinion that it's weird that they've "met the offer" and it still seems to be somewhat in limbo/uncertain if things will get hammered out.

Probably more to do with NTCs, bonus vs base salary, front-loading, etc

 

[bleedgreen]

Guentzel at $8 million over at least years 1-4 of that deal is still underpaid by a fair amount.

And there’s still 4 more years….

He’s obviously going to be well overpaid by the end. That’s the advantage of the 8th year. The Canes can keep the cost down a touch by spreading it out and Jake can be sipping a margarita living on ltir for an additional year longer than he could’ve anywhere else.

 

[Empoleon8771]

And there’s still 4 more years….

He’s obviously going to be well overpaid by the end. That’s the advantage of the 8th year. The Canes can keep the cost down a touch by spreading it out and Jake can be sipping a margarita living on ltir for an additional year longer than he could’ve anywhere else.

Yeah that's how UFA contracts work. Literally every long-term UFA deal does this.

Guys who sign big UFA deals tend to be fairly paid in the first 3-4 years with the remaining years being terrible. It's very odd that Guentzel was willing to sign for only $8 million a year when he's probably a $9.5 million a year player right now. And it's even more odd that Carolina wasn't immediately willing to meet him at $8 million a year if that's all he was asking for.

 

[bleedgreen]

Yeah that's how UFA contracts work. Literally every long-term UFA deal does this.

Guys who sign big UFA deals tend to be fairly paid in the first 3-4 years with the remaining years being terrible. It's very odd that Guentzel was willing to sign for only $8 million a year when he's probably a $9.5 million a year player right now. And it's even more odd that Carolina wasn't immediately willing to meet him at $8 million a year if that's all he was asking for.

Well you’re making inferences off of incomplete information. We don’t really know what the original ask was, or what the Canes offered initially, or what’s changed. When they originally talked after the trade I’m under the impression it was the Guentzel camp that said they wanted time and it suggested he was going to market no matter what. The Canes have pushed the issue trying to keep him off the market, it certainly doesn’t seem like they delayed or weren’t trying. No team just gives a ufa what he wants without negotiations.

 

[leafsfan5]

8x8 is such a good deal for Carolina it's actually shocking

I wanted the Leafs to offer up to 10 x 7

 

[Empoleon8771]

Well you’re making inferences off of incomplete information. We don’t really know what the original ask was, or what the Canes offered initially, or what’s changed. When they originally talked after the trade I’m under the impression it was the Guentzel camp that said they wanted time and it suggested he was going to market no matter what. The Canes have pushed the issue trying to keep him off the market, it certainly doesn’t seem like they delayed or weren’t trying. No team just gives a ufa what he wants without negotiations.

If Guentzel was crazy enough to be asking for only $8 million a year from Carolina, Carolina absolutely should have done that.

Carolina trying to get Guentzel to sign for an AAV in the $7 millions is just them being unreasonable, no matter the term attached to the deal.

 

[Svechhammer]

Probably more to do with NTCs, bonus vs base salary, front-loading, etc

Yep, reads that the overall structure has been agreed to, now just iron out the details to make it work by league standards.

Definitely need to have some NMC and NTC in there as well as bonus incentives for awards and playoff success

 

[Unsustainable]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806747751826468977

8x8

 

[DaveG]

Crazy that's all that Guentzel was asking for if that's the case. I was definitely wrong in assuming that he'd demand $9 million on that term to sign.

At the same time, it's weird that Carolina was only now willing to meet that ask.

may also be about contract structure. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on this but IIRC bonuses aren't subject to the jock tax BS. 8M in pay with all but say 1-1.5M being bonuses would go a lot farther than 8M in straight salary if that's the case.

 

[Empoleon8771]

may also be about contract structure. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on this but IIRC bonuses aren't subject to the jock tax BS. 8M in pay with all but say 1-1.5M being bonuses would go a lot farther than 8M in straight salary if that's the case.

Yeah I can definitely see that. I don't think Carolina has been a team that has historically given out bonus heavy deals, but getting more money as bonuses and up-front is definitely an appealing factor for Guentzel.

Just between the difference of money now and money later, you can easily structure an 8x8 deal to be worth more money than say a 9.5x7 deal even though it's less money.

 

[bleedgreen]

If Guentzel was crazy enough to be asking for only $8 million a year from Carolina, Carolina absolutely should have done that.

Carolina trying to get Guentzel to sign for an AAV in the $7 millions is just them being unreasonable, no matter the term attached to the deal.

Why are you believing anything anyone is telling you about numbers? It’s all click bait, even from the top guys. I feel like you’re just trying to take this into a negative Canes conversation for funsies. Even if we get him we still suck because you have it on twitter authority we tried to low ball him first.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Why are you believing anything anyone is telling you about numbers? It’s all click bait, even from the top guys. I feel like you’re just trying to take this into a negative Canes conversation for funsies. Even if we get him we still suck because you have it on twitter authority we tried to low ball him first.

Dude it's not that serious, I was just giving my opinion on the rumors. Getting defensive about it and saying "you're just trying to make this a negative!" is needless.

 

[DaveG]

Yeah I can definitely see that. I don't think Carolina has been a team that has historically given out bonus heavy deals, but getting more money as bonuses and up-front is definitely an appealing factor for Guentzel.

Just between the difference of money now and money later, you can easily structure an 8x8 deal to be worth more money than say a 9.5x7 deal even though it's less money.

As far as that goes I always had a thought that the lack of bonus-heavy stuff for the org was mostly due to Karmanos. Though obviously just about any owner would prefer to pay out over the course of a season rather than needing to write $50M worth of checks each July 1st or whenever the pay date for bonuses usually is.

 

[thefutures]

8x8 is very reasonable