Friedman: Guentzel extension with Canes almost done?

[UrbanImpact]

Vancouver started signing their own guys, so I assume they feel like he's staying in carolina

They have plenty of Cap for Guentzel and the players they started to re-sign dont play top 6.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

To play devil’s advocate, if $9.5M by 7 = $$66.5M and $8.5M x 8 = $68M, there are 1.5M guaranteed reasons for him to sign for less than$9M.

That said, I don’t think he signs in CAR anyway

Call me crazy, but I'd take into account opportunity cost. You're essentially saying that you don't think that Guetzel is going to be able to get a contract at 37YO because the league minimum is likely to be about $1.5M which would make up the entire difference. I'm not in a professional atheles' mind, but I don't think that they'd be so simple as "more $'s" is the only thing to consider when they also have to work an entire extra year to earn the differntial. Especially when you're talking about a guy who is going to have $100M+ career earnings.

 

[Extra Texture]

Jake and the Jerks.

Good for the player and statement of intent from the Canes. I'll be glad if he is staying in a situation where I can still root for him.

 

[Jozay]

They have plenty of Cap for Guentzel and the players they started to re-sign dont play top 6.

Oh I thought they were up against it

 

[BCNate]

Vancouver started signing their own guys, so I assume they feel like he's staying in carolina

I think they have 8-10 mil set aside for help on the wing in their top 6. Resigning Joshua and Myers doesn't change that.

 

[UrbanImpact]

There's likely other negotiations with other teams already, they're just not stating it publicly. If Guentzel wants an 8th year, he also has to sign it before Monday.

Then wait at least the weekend.

Use Vancouver as leverage....get Carolina to go up to 10m x 8yrs.

Oh I thought they were up against it

They have about 14.5 million left to fill out the roster and or to improve it.

Suter-Miller-Boeser
xxx- Pettersson- Hoglander
Joshua-Bleuger-Garland
Podkolzin-Aman-PDG

Hughes-Hronek
Soucy-Myers
xxx-Juulsen

Demko

 

[Svechhammer]

Then wait at least the weekend.

Use Vancouver as leverage....get Carolina to go up to 10m x 8yrs.

lol what, try to convince the Canes front office he has a $11.5m x 7yr offer from Vancouver, because that's the equivalent ask.

Hell, even if he can get a max length $9.5m aav from Vancouver, that's still $8.3m for a 8 year deal. Vancouver would have to start their offer at $10m aav to cause the Canes to raise theirs beyond $8.5, Good luck

 

[Unsustainable]

Then wait at least the weekend.

Use Vancouver as leverage....get Carolina to go up to 10m x 8yrs.



They have about 14.5 million left to fill out the roster and or to improve it.

Suter-Miller-Boeser
xxx- Pettersson- Hoglander
Joshua-Bleuger-Garland
Podkolzin-Aman-PDG

Hughes-Hronek
Soucy-Myers
xxx-Juulsen

Demko

Stamkos on a shorter deal would work for Vancouver

 

[Empoleon8771]

lol what, try to convince the Canes front office he has a $11.5m x 7yr offer from Vancouver, because that's the equivalent ask.

Hell, even if he can get a max length $9.5m aav from Vancouver, that's still $8.3m for a 8 year deal. Vancouver would have to start their offer at $10m aav to cause the Canes to raise theirs beyond $8.5, Good luck

I agree with your overall premise, but I don't believe that the Canes can simply get Guentzel by offering more total money on an 8 year deal than anyone else on a 7 year deal. Guentzel may still be a NHLer after his current deal, so a 7 year deal plus being a free agent again at age 37 may yield more money over 8 years.

Guentzel's not going to play that 8th year for no money is what I'm getting at. If Vancouver would offer 7 years and $70 million, the 8 year offer that would beat that is probably something like 8 years and $74 million.

 

[Svechhammer]

I agree with your overall premise, but I don't believe that the Canes can simply get Guentzel by offering more total money on an 8 year deal than anyone else on a 7 year deal. Guentzel may still be a NHLer after his current deal, so a 7 year deal plus being a free agent again at age 37 may yield more money over 8 years.

Guentzel's not going to play that 8th year for no money is what I'm getting at. If Vancouver would offer 7 years and $70 million, the 8 year offer that would beat that is probably something like 8 years and $74 million.

While that sounds good, its really a negligible cost. And there's also the possibility that he gets an injury and never even plays that age 38 season. Getting that extra year of job security is huge, and you know it would come with the full NTC and NMC over the last few years just to make sure he and his family have stability. You sacrifice maybe $750k-$1m a year up front to make sure you are making 2x what you would be making in that last year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

While that sounds good, its really a negligible cost. And there's also the possibility that he gets an injury and never even plays that age 38 season. Getting that extra year of job security is huge, and you know it would come with the full NTC and NMC over the last few years just to make sure he and his family have stability. You sacrifice maybe $750k-$1m a year up front to make sure you are making 2x what you would be making in that last year.

The extra year of security isn't worth anything if he's not being paid anything for it, that was just the point I was making.

The $750k a year estimate that he'd give up yearly for that last year is a reasonable estimate, I was just saying that he wouldn't take like 8 years and $64 million over 7 years and $63 million just because $64 million is more than $63 million.

 

[Svechhammer]

The extra year of security isn't worth anything if he's not being paid anything for it, that was just the point I was making.

The $750k a year estimate that he'd give up yearly for that last year is a reasonable estimate, I was just saying that he wouldn't take like 8 years and $64 million over 7 years and $63 million just because $64 million is more than $63 million.

I mean we're probably splitting hairs here, but we're probably talking about the last contract he signs. Either way, when this contract ends, the next games he'll play he will be either 38 or 39. Most likely looking at playing league minimum for a contender, if not outright retiring.

If we were talking about a RFA player signing 8 years that takes him to 34 or 35, I would agree with you, but given his age, I do think that a guaranteed contract for that extra year that late into his career could be bigger than you'd normally think.

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806701521226301613

So you know he isn’t coming to Vancouver then. This bum is wrong about everything Vancouver

 

[Tragedy]

So you know he isn’t coming to Vancouver then. This bum is wrong about everything Vancouver

wrong about everything*

 

[Legion34]

Seravalli is a dirtbag that has zero sources within Vancouver.
The guy can shut up and eat a giant dirty glizzy

He’s been the most accurate the last few years. He knows about lehner. Utah. Arizona. The whole kraken list. He’s been really accurate

 

[Svechhammer]

wrong about everything*

Its like if Eklund ever signed a deal with ESPN

 

[UrbanImpact]

Frank S. has 0 connections or sources within Van. He has been wrong about almost everything Canuck related.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

8 years, $70 million is my guess. $8.75M AAV.

 

[Drew Doubty]

Honestly I'd rather the Canucks pony up the assets to get someone like Ehlers or Buchnevich over Guentzel (Hoglander and a 1st anyone?). The extra 4 million in cap savings would mean being able to sign another bonafide top-4 D and another quality depth forward. Signing Guentzel for 9.5 or more would mean Myers-Soucy is your 2nd pair, and 2 of Hoglander, Suter, Garland, and Joshua are playing in your top 6 - not ideal.

 

[Regal]

AAV doesn’t matter if the years go up. 7.75x8 is 62 million, but a team on the open market would have to pay 9x7 to beat that. At the end of the day it comes down to preference. I think Carolina up their offer to the mid 8’s which would take a 10 million offer to beat.

This only works if the assumption is that he won’t play out the 8th year. Otherwise he’d be signing another contract after this and that money would have to be factored in.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Frank S. has 0 connections or sources within Van. He has been wrong about almost everything Canuck related.

He was the first to break the Pettersson re-signing (actually 2nd behind Pagnotta) and has provided Intel that Zadorov's asking price is too high. Pettersson is now re-signed for 8 years and Zadorov remains unsigned.

I think you're referring to the Hronek 8yrs/8m speculation and that was valid in the middle of the season. It was only when Hronek dropped off a cliff in terms of production that this outlook changed.

Seravelli is a vetted source. It's just that in this case, the sources have conflicting information.

 

[Regal]

Honestly I'd rather the Canucks pony up the assets to get someone like Ehlers or Buchnevich over Guentzel (Hoglander and a 1st anyone?). The extra 4 million in cap savings would mean being able to sign another bonafide top-4 D and another quality depth forward. Signing Guentzel for 9.5 or more would mean Myers-Soucy is your 2nd pair, and 2 of Hoglander, Suter, Garland, and Joshua are playing in your top 6 - not ideal.

Ehlers and Buch would end up being close to Guentzel the following year though and it means no guarantees they would re-sign

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

He was the first to break the Pettersson re-signing (actually 2nd behind Pagnotta) and has provided Intel that Zadorov's asking price is too high. Pettersson is now re-signed for 8 years and Zadorov remains unsigned.

I think you're referring to the Hronek 8yrs/8m speculation and that was valid in the middle of the season. It was only when Hronek dropped off a cliff in terms of production that this outlook changed.

Seravelli is a vetted source. It's just that in this case, the sources have conflicting information.

Not correct, he has been wrong on almost everything Vancouver under new management. Our office doesn’t leak anything.

 

[BCNate]

He’s been the most accurate the last few years. He knows about lehner. Utah. Arizona. The whole kraken list. He’s been really accurate

Everything he has posted about the Canucks has been wrong, yet he is emphatic about all of it.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Not correct, he has been wrong on almost everything Vancouver under new management. Our office doesn’t leak anything.

They leak everything. How do you think Dhaliwal tweeted that Guentzel and Tanev were priorities 1 and 2 on the Canucks' list?