Mens team didnt qualify for the olympics, junior team will get relegated and still the DEB will think they do everything right
Seriously?
Up until last year, when they changed the relegation format of the tournament, Germany went down every single time they were at the world juniors in at least the last 20 years.
To think that a single tournament like the Olympic qualification or the World juniors - were Germany was known for going up and down every single year - would be any indication of the way German hockey is heading, is simply ludicrous. Austria and Slovenia made it to the Olympics, yet sucked hardcore at any other time, what do you make out of that?
Germany completely falling apart in the 2012 World Championship and then blowing the Olympic qualification (and it wasn't even Austria they lost to, they beat them) was incredibly stupid and wasted some very succesful tournament prior to that. In itself, these tournaments say nothing whatsoever about the quality of German hockey. No single tournament can do that.
Simply put, Germany is among a bunch of average hockey-nations. They all have their ups and downs and rarely do you see any of them string more than two, maybe three good tournament together in a row. Germany's success in 2010 and 2011 didn't suggest that they were close to joining the elite teams, nor did the last few years suggest that Germany is falling behind the other average teams, it is the completely normal circle that every average teams goes through. Look at every other team behind the top six, they all had some good moments and failed utterly in others, even Slovakia wasn't immune to that, and they are supposed to be part of the elite, not the average.
German hockey will stay exactly where it has been in the past, far behind the best teams, on basically one level with quite a few other teams. A level where injuries, luck, a good head coach or simply running hot can make all the difference.
I don't think the way you present the Oberliga (3rd tier) is all that close either. The problem with that league isn't that it's not good enough for the young players, on the contrary, the level would be fine if not too good for most of them (and the few who are too good are playing elsewhere anyway). The problem is that coaches at that level are still far more interested in short-term success than in development. It's not a development-league, it's semi-pro, and the coaches fear losing their job and prefer to play it safe, not giving youngsters to many chances.
What still needs to be fine-tuned is the path from juniors to men's hockey, which can be too big for many players. Raising the maximum age in the DNL is the obvious first step in improving that. It's also doubtful that you would see an 18 year old play a big role in the DEL, like it occasionally happens in Sweden or Finland. Rieder and Kühnhackl played a decent role in tier two at that age, but even the best rarely get the chance to play an important role at that age, which is probably while many of the most talented went over to North America pretty early.