Grade Cheveldayoff's offseaon

[GoJetsGo55]

If we are worrying about the backup goalie spot then we had a pretty darn good off season

I was gonna post something similar. If that's the one position we are worried about, we are in a great spot. That being said......that COULD be a very important spot.

 

[WolfHouse]

Im sure lots of teams would love to have the “problem” of only having Connor, Wheeler, Ehlers, Stastny as their top 6 wingers….

Yeah I’m not overly concerned - just pointing out that it’s probably a ‘bigger’ problem than the backup goalie situation but lots of guys are playing longer - just don’t want to see us gassed come playoff time

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It will be interesting to watch as the season unfolds. The NHL is a league you have to claw and scratch to optimize yourself. Even the top guys like McDavid and Crosby are notoriously "the" hardest workers. I think its been one of the issues Laine has encountered in that goals came to him pretty easily when he was a teenager and since then not so much. Is he clawing and scratching to improve or is the 24 year old (this April) in his draft + 6 season sticking to the entitlement and complaining plan? I can't speak to his off season training but he has yet to have that Lowry, Scheifele, Morrissey, Stanley physical transformation off season yet.

When it comes to Heinola and Samberg I think I had talked myself into thinking they were ready now because I assumed we would need them this season full time. I think if they were "there" beyond a doubt Chevy wouldn't have added both Schmidt and Dillon. Development is always a dynamic situation and either one or both of them could prove this season they are ready now. We have an obvious window where some of our value contracts exist. Chevy has decided to not to leave it to chance. We have had huge holes to fill since the 2019 D exodus and "on paper" Chevy has rebuilt our D core now. We also have prized affordable assets for depth. It remains to be seen how the group will come together and impact the overall team effects. I will say for the first time in 3 seasons I am not cringing looking at the patchwork quilt D roster.

Some good points.

I'm really interested to see if Laine can rebound. I'm a lot more confident in PLD rebounding than in Laine. But I would still like to see Laine fulfill that potential.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

he has already been waived twice by the jets.

And brought back each time.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Or he works out and gives the team adequate goaltending in the backup position.

Not impossible. But there has been little indication of that happening so far.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If we are worrying about the backup goalie spot then we had a pretty darn good off season

Backup goalie could cost us as many as 5-10 wins. How many extra wins is Schmidt worth? Or Dillon, for that matter?

 

[Romang67]

Backup goalie could cost us as many as 5-10 wins. How many extra wins is Schmidt worth? Or Dillon, for that matter?

I think you vastly overestimate the impact of a backup goaltender.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think that was the point. I took his post as meaning having a backup goalie with a under .900% did not hurt TB from winning the cup.

Teams like TB and the Jets have a luxury almost no other teams in the NHL have. They have a dominant #1 goalie that consistently wins you hockey games. Like others have said I think it is poor cap management to spent much more then league minimum on a backup when you have a top thoroughbred as your #1.

You don't want that top thoroughbred to be overworked. That means your backup should start at least 20. Ideally more like 25.

If Comrie plays like his resume suggests he probably only starts about 15. We lose 5 more of those than we would have with good goaltending. Meanwhile, Helle starts 67. we lose 2-3 of those that might have been wins if he wasn't being overworked. He is worn out for the PO.

I think people here are under estimating the value of a good backup.

Comrie's problem in the NHL in the past appeared to be nerves. Maybe he has matured enough to get past that now. Maybe he really can be an adequate backup. I hope so. I'm skeptical, but I am pulling for him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think you vastly overestimate the impact of a backup goaltender.

See my post #283.
Hypothetical numbers, but it can add up to a huge impact overall.

The effect is twofold. There are the games he plays and there are the games he doesn't play because he has not been good enough to earn more starts.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

Let’s be honest, half way through the season Comrie will have played maybe 10 games, if he’s looked bad in that stretch it won’t be hard for the Jets to pick someone off the waivers and make the cap work for trade a late draft pick for a better backup with retention.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well... I’m a Chevy fan for sure... but we probably should be concerned that Stats and Wheeler may not be top six guys over 84 games

I think it is time for Wheeler to move down to the 2nd line. I also think both he and stats should get a game off for rest once in a while.

 

[Whileee]

Backup goalie could cost us as many as 5-10 wins. How many extra wins is Schmidt worth? Or Dillon, for that matter?

5-10 wins? That's hyperbole.

Based on GAR/WAR analyses (from Evolving Hockey), the worst goalies cost their teams about 1 win per 10 starts (i.e. below replacement).

Hellebuyck is worth about +1 win above replacement for every 12 games played.

So, if the Jets have the very worst goalie and play him 15 games, then at most it might cost the Jets about 2-3 wins. That assumes Hellebuyck maintains his recent level of play, and the Jets' backups are the worst in the NHL. If the Jets' backups play at a basic "replacement level", then they would be down about 1.5 wins if they played 15-20 games.

 

[Whileee]

See my post #283.
Hypothetical numbers, but it can add up to a huge impact overall.

The effect is twofold. There are the games he plays and there are the games he doesn't play because he has not been good enough to earn more starts.

Instead of hypotheticals, I looked at "wins above replacement" analyses at Evolving Hockey, which indicate that you have really overestimated the direct impact of a back-up goalie. I would agree that there is a danger of over-using Hellebuyck, but I haven't seen much evidence that is an important issue for playoff performance, as yet. Plenty of examples of top playoff goalies that had a heavy regular season workload.

 

[tbone1968]

We certainly needed to do something. I'm suggesting that Dillon, combined with our prospects was enough. Sure, getting Schmidt makes for a better looking D corps than the one featuring Stanley and a rookie. If we had loads of cap space, it would be fine. But I think we are already paying a price for lack of cap space. Backup goalie being one example. Weaknesses at middle 6 winger being another.

It is only partly about not getting opportunity for the D prospects. It is more about them probably being able to have been the solution to our D corps for a lot less money than Schmidt cost. Heinola is, or will be, another puck mover. We have already seen Morrissey - DeMelo be effective.

Getting Schmidt, good. Paying him, bad.

I don't know Mort. Morrissey-Demelo were serviceable, OK effective. I don't think that's good enough for a first pair. Now we can run Schmidt, Pionk and Demelo down the right. MASSIVE upgrade. The Jets are managing the cap, take as many hard swings at the plate while we have this forward group and Helle. Now the D is fixed and some higher end young guys in reserve (they will get time this year due to injury).
Go for it man

 

[tbone1968]

I'm not sure how I'd grade Chevy's offseason, because it depends on how you account for the past and also how you grade market vs impact.

Just a random example:
Stastny was paid more than historically a player of his contributions, age, and history would get paid on the market.
Stastny is still paid less than I believe his true impact on the ice is (but that could sink fast given age) and less than some alternatives that are worse.
So how do you grade that?
That's going to be subjective.

Another example:
I think Dillon and Schmidt are the right type of moves, but would they have been necessary if Jets did smarter moves for cheaper, younger defenders that were available previously?
Hard to say.

Either way I think I agree with the direction Chevy took the team. Whether or not it'll work out or been the best possible options remain to be seen.

Meh to this.
- Stas is a one year deal under this years roster cap. This was all calculated by the Jets mgmt ahead of time with Schmidt and Dillon on the radar. It's no mistake it all fits
- What cheaper, younger options ? Doesn't mean better options. Yeah I know, like a Poolman ? Thats BS
-What other options did Chevy have ? Any ideas ? Hamilton for 10 a year ?

Sorry man I think your take is garbage.

 

[tbone1968]

Back up goalie pfffft. Call up the Berdin wall. If the current backup is going to cost us 10-15 wins then no thanks, I want some entertainment. I want the squirrel in traffic

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

5-10 wins? That's hyperbole.

Based on GAR/WAR analyses (from Evolving Hockey), the worst goalies cost their teams about 1 win per 10 starts (i.e. below replacement).

Hellebuyck is worth about +1 win above replacement for every 12 games played.

So, if the Jets have the very worst goalie and play him 15 games, then at most it might cost the Jets about 2-3 wins. That assumes Hellebuyck maintains his recent level of play, and the Jets' backups are the worst in the NHL. If the Jets' backups play at a basic "replacement level", then they would be down about 1.5 wins if they played 15-20 games.

That's is obviously a lot less than I would expect. Goalies SEEM to have a much greater effect than that. Those numbers would suggest that the goalie position is not as important as I think most of us would expect. What is the win % of a typical Vezina contender compared to that of a typical backup, much less a weak backup?

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

If Chevy has as much confidence in Comrie as he does in his head coach then we won’t be picking up anyone else. Instead riding it out and hoping for better results with the same unqualified backup.

Chevy needs to break the 2nd round draft monkey curse. Comrie will break Chevy’s curse.

seriously, If comrie is so awful why does he continually get plucked off the waiver wire and picked up by other teams.

If he sucks, maybe we get Hutch back mid-season.

 

[surixon]

That's is obviously a lot less than I would expect. Goalies SEEM to have a much greater effect than that. Those numbers would suggest that the goalie position is not as important as I think most of us would expect. What is the win % of a typical Vezina contender compared to that of a typical backup, much less a weak backup?

I mean Helle plays 60 plus games a year and 5 additional wins is good for 10 points in the standings which could be massive in terms of making the playoffs.

That is pretty significant to me. Now loosing 1 or so wins from an awful goalie isn't that big of a deal just due to games played.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Instead of hypotheticals, I looked at "wins above replacement" analyses at Evolving Hockey, which indicate that you have really overestimated the direct impact of a back-up goalie. I would agree that there is a danger of over-using Hellebuyck, but I haven't seen much evidence that is an important issue for playoff performance, as yet. Plenty of examples of top playoff goalies that had a heavy regular season workload.

Yes, I saw that. I think comparing win % of strong starters to that of weak backups would be better. Or maybe just use average starters vs avg backups. The sample should be large enough to be meaningful.

When Helle had a heavy workload he was good, not great. With a lighter workload, he won the Vezina. I don't think the PO data set is large enough to conclude anything. Even the above, good, not great, is probably not statistically significant. Some goalies thrive on a heavy workload. I suspect that more do not, but I can't prove that.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't know Mort. Morrissey-Demelo were serviceable, OK effective. I don't think that's good enough for a first pair. Now we can run Schmidt, Pionk and Demelo down the right. MASSIVE upgrade. The Jets are managing the cap, take as many hard swings at the plate while we have this forward group and Helle. Now the D is fixed and some higher end young guys in reserve (they will get time this year due to injury).
Go for it man

Could be. I have said before that I wanted Chevy to be more bold. This is not exactly what I had in mind, but it is in that direction.

I'm suggesting that more offense, less defense from Schmidt isn't a net gain over less offense, more defense from DeMelo. Morrissey and DeMelo together were good, not just a little better than Morrissey - X.

Adding Dillon to Pionk is a bigger upgrade than replacing DeMelo with Schmidt. Schmidt is a MASSIVE upgrade if the alternative was Beaulieu.

I am assuming that Heinola (more likely than Samberg) with Stanley would be effective. If in fact neither Heinola nor Samberg is ready then we don't really have the alternative I am assuming.

I agree that he has fixed the D. And I agree with going for it this year. I'm just suggesting that he might have made 1 move too many, considering our cap situation. Hard to pass up Schmidt for a 3rd though.

But if either or both of Heinola and Samberg look genuinely ready through TC and early season a D man could be moved, opening a spot and saving cap. It doesn't need to be finished on opening day. I think that is the real best answer to my point.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I mean Helle plays 60 plus games a year and 5 additional wins is good for 10 points in the standings which could be massive in terms of making the playoffs.

That is pretty significant to me. Now loosing 1 or so wins from an awful goalie isn't that big of a deal just due to games played.

The way Comrie has played in the NHL so far it will be more than 1-2 games. Helle's best season, he played 58 games. A backup winning just 1-2 fewer of those 20 games than what the starter would is what you get from a decent backup. If the difference is less than that you have a 2 goalie system where you can't pick between them.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

The way Comrie has played in the NHL so far it will be more than 1-2 games. Helle's best season, he played 58 games. A backup winning just 1-2 fewer of those 20 games than what the starter would is what you get from a decent backup. If the difference is less than that you have a 2 goalie system where you can't pick between them.

True the year Hellebuyck won the Vezina he only played 58 games, that was only because the season abruptly ended early, he was pacing to play 67 games that year.

 

[surixon]

The way Comrie has played in the NHL so far it will be more than 1-2 games. Helle's best season, he played 58 games. A backup winning just 1-2 fewer of those 20 games than what the starter would is what you get from a decent backup. If the difference is less than that you have a 2 goalie system where you can't pick between them.

Helle's statistical best season was 17-18 where he had a .924 save percentage and we went to the third round. He played 67 games that year plus a bunch of playoff games.

He has shown he can perform exceptionally well with a huge work load.

We will just have to wait and see on Comrie, many of the same things could have been said about Brossoit when we got him and he turned out to be a good bet.

 

[DRW204]

True the year Hellebuyck won the Vezina he only played 58 games, that was only because the season abruptly ended early, he was pacing to play 67 games that year.

im concerned about the cumulative workload. he's led the league in GP, shots faced over the past number of years. he struggles as the POs get deeper. Look at his numbers against VGK, STL or CGY. Last year he was stellar, but less of a reg. season workload.

vas was on pace for 60 gp this season (82 gms)
last 2 seasons he was a 52 and 53 (he did have a foot injury where he missed couple weeks)

id like to see helle in the Vas range. maybe a bit of a lesser reg season workload would help his PO performance?