Grade Cheveldayoff's offseaon
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I'm not sure how objective that would be, because Vezina voting is often based on win % (even moreso than actual goalie performance). But the best performing goalies typically end up with about 1 extra win per 10 starts, while the worst back-ups tend to have 1 extra loss per 10 starts (compared to a "replacement level" goalie).
Here are the estimated "wins above replacement" for the top goalies over the past 3 seasons. You can see the WAR in relation to the number of starts (hence my "1 in 10" rule for top goalies).
I mean at age 26 he should be fully developed. It's more about him playing confident like he does on the Moose. If he does that he'll be OK I think. If not then we need to look elsewhere.
It's a risk but one we can rectify if it doesn't work.
I have strong doubts about Comrie's ability to play at an NHL level. However, he has a reasonably good track record at the AHL level, and back-up goalie performance is notoriously hard to predict.
In any case, the Jets might have three back-up options (Comrie, Berdin and Holm), and they all have had some good success at levels just below the NHL, so they might be able to patch together 15 games without losing much ground. It will be interesting to see if Maurice tends to use his back-ups in "lost cause" roles, as he seemed to do at times with Brossoit (i.e. back-to-backs vs strong opponents).
Note: over the the last two seasons Brossoit had a record of 12-13-1, and a save percentage of 0.905, so he wasn't putting up spectacular numbers.
Yup, I'm hoping for replacement level numbers from our backup this year. Anything else is gravy at $750k a year.
Agree. Also, "replacement level" goaltending from the back-up, combined with a defense that allows substantially lower numbers of difficult shots would be a good outcome from the off-season.
Here are the +/- for goals and expected goals over the past 3 seasons for Dillon, Schmidt, Forbort and Poolman.
It's a bit of questionable math to combine them, but combined it translates to about a net positive of about 18 expected goals over about 2 seasons (on average per D). So, maybe an advantage of about 9 xG +/- per season? A back-up goalie won't have that impact.
The point is that Dillon and Schmidt are substantial improvements over Forbort and Poolman, even with Schmidt's down season with the Canucks last season.
It's a bit of questionable math to combine them, but combined it translates to about a net positive of about 18 expected goals over about 2 seasons (on average per D). So, maybe an advantage of about 9 xG +/- per season? A back-up goalie won't have that impact.
The point is that Dillon and Schmidt are substantial improvements over Forbort and Poolman, even with Schmidt's down season with the Canucks last season.
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Right, I forgot about that. These are not starts. Brossoit had already played 19. Those include games where both played so will add up to more than the 71 total games. But that applies to every year.
This is pretty hard to prove one way or another. Intuitively, I think it is better to keep the starter's workload a little lighter. We see that fatigue does affect goalie efficiency from the data on goalies playing b2b. It is reasonable to assume that there is a cumulative fatigue over a season as well as the day to day fatigue. Considering that you will want to ride your starter almost exclusively in the PO it is only prudent to try for a lighter load during the regular season. That means you need a backup you can rely on for good starts.
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I agree Helle has carried a heavy load successfully. Brossoit had had some bad stretches in the NHL but he had some good stretches mixed in. Comrie's resume is worse. Brossoit's was pretty bad though. I was among the skeptics when we got him. Comrie is just a little older now than what Brossoit was then.
I agree that we will have to wait and see on Comrie. He had very limited play last year and not an awful lot more the year before - but his play the last 2 years has been good except for the 3 games with DRW. Maybe the combination of maturity plus knowing he has the backup job will settle him down and he will have success.
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So that is a difference of 2 wins per 10 starts, or 5 per 25 starts. That is getting pretty close to my hypothetical number. Add in a couple of extra losses from your starter if your backup is only good enough to get 15 games and your starter is overworked and we are right there.
I suppose you could give your weak backup 20 games and absorb the 4 losses if you have a powerhouse team like TBL. You still make the PO and anything can happen in the PO. But those 4 losses could be the difference between 2nd or 3rd and 5th for a lesser team.
Being more conservative, lets assume no difference in winning % from the starter if he plays an extra 5-10 games and only a loss of 3 wins by the backup with 20 starts. 3 wins is still a lot. How many wins difference does an upgrade from DeMelo to Schmidt at 1RD add up to?
Those are some impressive numbers from Helle. Maybe he should have won 2 Vezinas by now.
The Jets place 6th in The Athletic's rankings of team front offices, with the fanbase rating the FO a little higher than the general public/ pundits The ever-sceptical Dom has this to say:
Of all the placements on this list, Winnipeg’s was by far the most shocking. It’s not just that the fans are extremely enamoured by the brain trust, but the public too views this as a top 10 organization. I’m not completely sold, but there’s plenty of reason to be high on the Jets’ front office after the summer they had.
And from the public and punditsphere:
“Chevy has done a great job. Winnipeg as a small market has obstacles that most other teams do not face. It is not a desirable destination to play, but the culture created from top to bottom in the Jets organization has helped immensely.”
2021 NHL front office rankings: Fans weigh in on every team
Of all the placements on this list, Winnipeg’s was by far the most shocking. It’s not just that the fans are extremely enamoured by the brain trust, but the public too views this as a top 10 organization. I’m not completely sold, but there’s plenty of reason to be high on the Jets’ front office after the summer they had.
And from the public and punditsphere:
“Chevy has done a great job. Winnipeg as a small market has obstacles that most other teams do not face. It is not a desirable destination to play, but the culture created from top to bottom in the Jets organization has helped immensely.”
2021 NHL front office rankings: Fans weigh in on every team
tbcwpg
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Dom is a great statistical mind for the game but he views EVERYTHING through his model lens.
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I can see some doubt about the Jets with the D corps of the last 2 years. But from the way he talks about the Jets I have to assume he is not impressed with the F corps either and maybe not even the goalies.
IMO we had a very strong bottom 6 last year with both the 3rd and 4th lines being among the best in the league when considered from all angles.
Add that to a top 6 with Scheif at 1C and 2C shared by Stastny and PLD. PLD disappointed but still managed 20 pts in 41 games will struggling with injuries and integrating into a new team under difficult circumstances. With Ehlers, Stastny/PLD, Connor and Wheeler for wingers that is a top 6 that is also among the best in the league.
I don't think there was a better goaltending pair in the league than Helle and Brossoit.
So Dom can criticize the D corps to no end and perhaps lay the blame for that on the FO, but he seems to fail to give credit where it is due.
I have no interest in reading anything of his any longer. Just don't agree with his takes at all.
i think that's fair? not really sure. idk the inner workings of every org to objectively say were the Jets rank league-wide. I guess Polls like this help. But the Jets are solid. Like every org there's something they aren't good at or wish i/you could change, however for the most part they're good. teams like WSH or PIT though i think are too low imo.
this is nothing to do with models. it's summarizing votes from respondents to survey.
Jetland162702
Pup-peroni Junkie
tbcwpg
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He thinks Scheifele and especially Wheeler are massively overrated because of their defensive play almost canceling out their points they score at the other end, and that Lowry isn't as good as his reputation either. He thinks Ehlers is the only top tier forward on the team. Says that the Jets wouldn't be close to the playoffs without Hellebuyck. He's skeptical Dillon and Schmidt are going to make a large enough difference to overcome his perceived shortcomings.
The issue his model has with the Jets is that the team is usually giving up far more chances than it generates, but the Jets like to play on the rush so they usually don't need as many high danger chances to win. So the team looks like they're lucky or relies on goaltending alone.
A better goaltending pair in the league than Helle and Brossoit was Fleury/Lehner last season.
Yup, it just highlights the shortcomings of his models imo.
I expect the team to be much closer to a possession neutral team next year with their defensive improvements if Maurice does his job with the systems.
tbcwpg
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TB
COL
DET
FLA
NYI
WPG
LA
BOS
CAR
NJ
Bottom 3 are ARI, SJ, BUF. VAN is the lowest Canadian team at 29th.
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Yes, I understand what he dislikes. But Scheif/Wheeler are affected by the weak D corps the last couple of years. A lot of 1st lines around the league have defensive deficiencies without as much offense, despite playing in front of better D. Lets see how good (bad?) Wheeler is playing with healed ribs.
Would the Jets have been a PO team without Helle the last couple of years? Well they weren't a PO team in '20 with him. Last year if Helle was replaced by a league avg starter, I think it would have been close.
I would have preferred a real 2 way 1RD over Schmidt. In fact I would have done without Dillon too if that was what it took to get the 1RD I want. But if that was out of the question then the Dillon/Schmidt pair is probably the next best thing.
There is some doubt about Schmidt due to a poor performance last year but even if he under-performs he is an upgrade on what we had most of last year. I see no way that Dillon - Pionk is not a substantial upgrade on Forbort - Pionk and they might be our top pair if Morrissey - Schmidt struggle. To me, even a conservative look at our 3 D pairs has to support a pretty big upgrade. Again, even conservatively, the solid if unspectacular D corps has to suggest better performance from our forwards too.
Like some other stat analysts he doesn't like Morrissey. Context again. If you can't see the effect of partners on Morrissey's performance you are going to incorrectly evaluate him.
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tbcwpg
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You're preaching to the choir here. I have no real issue with anything you said. I think Wheeler and Scheifele look worse than they are because they're on the ice so much so the number of chances against climbs.
Exactly, a good analysis looks at a number of different numbers and applies proper context. He doesn't do that at all, really all he does is look at his model as the be all end all.
tbcwpg
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I'm aware of this but I was responding to why Dom seems to be shocked that the Jets FO ranks so high in confidence. He thinks they're a mirage so he's surprised that other people might think the FO is run properly.
Mathil8
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I think people are forgetting that average backup goalie save percentage is ~.900. There's really not that much separating backup goaltenders from one another, especially the league minimum ones... We are fortunate enough to have a Vezina calibre goaltender who wants to play as many games as possible, we aren't looking for a platoon type backup. When it comes to a league minimum backup for Helle I'm simply looking for at least a replacement level performance on the ice, but more importantly a goalie who fits in the room and works well alongside Helle. In one of Chevy's interviews he mentioned that Helle endorsed having Comrie come in as the backup and that he enjoyed playing with him on the Moose, I know he is also a room favourite and apparently is just a good guy to have around. The personable side of backup goalies is often the more important factor, as long as they're performing in relief at replacement level or higher. If Comrie struggles it won't be hard to claim/acquire another backup to try. Not sure why people are getting so hung up on this.
i am not knowledgeable of other organizations so cant really say where the Jets rank league-wide. i think for the most part they're solid. but the PO success is crap so are they actually worth of top-10? i dont know. him putting the jets top 6 goes against everything that is said here against him (he's low on the jets). he has the right to be shocked, i am kind of shocked too that they're ahead of teams with Cups in recent years.
but again, i don't know the inner-workings of every org to say if the jets or better/or worse. chevy had a good off-season this year, but the past 2 were terribad. and 18-19 was a huge disappointment of a year. so perhaps it's mostly on this past year? it doesn't say.
at first glance, id personally have boston, pit and wsh ahead of the jets. idk why detroit is so high. Jets probably still top-10 though but perhaps in the 8-10 range....diference b/w that and 6th negligible so maybe it's not that bad
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