Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part VIII

[SensontheRush]

No we weren't...we had 6 wins, 4 losses and like 6 OT losses...that is well below .500

That team didn't look good outside 1 game in Sweden I think.

Many people saw the team and knew it was going to be bad based on the previous year and how they started the year.

You can't deny fact. Go ahead and calculate it yourself. 17pts in 14games.

You can argue that the fact they looked "poor", yet were still pulling out the points to be a playoff team, suggested that when the team got their act together that they would be a solid, contending team. There were positives to observe even: Brassard was having a bounce-back year, and Dzingel was breaking out.

These different possibilities get lost as history gets written, yet they were very valid in their time. Good on those who were ahead of the curve. I do think it's kind of absurd that people would expect the Sens to bottom out though; they had to go 1-12 in their return to North America to do so. That's worse than even the worst teams.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

No we weren't...we had 6 wins, 4 losses and like 6 OT losses...that is well below .500

That team didn't look good outside 1 game in Sweden I think.

Many people saw the team and knew it was going to be bad based on the previous year and how they started the year.

No one was predicting the meltdown at the time. Anyone claiming they saw it coming is full of bullshit. It's so easy with hindsight to know exactly what moves should've happened, what picks should've been made... it's fantasy land to pretend like you knew.

Yes the 17-18 Sens got off to a rocky start. It happens, Teams get off to slow starts. I remember the 07 Sens, the team that went to the finals, getting off to a slow start.

Duchene was a clear upgrade and it was worth the gamble.

 

[R2010]

No one was predicting the meltdown at the time. Anyone claiming they saw it coming is full of bullshit. It's so easy with hindsight to know exactly what moves should've happened, what picks should've been made... it's fantasy land to pretend like you knew.

Yes the 17-18 Sens got off to a rocky start. It happens, Teams get off to slow starts. I remember the 07 Sens, the team that went to the finals, getting off to a slow start.

Duchene was a clear upgrade and it was worth the gamble.

Don't think that's true. The *whole* analytics community was of the view that the sens were not good at the time. They were proven wrong with the playoffs but right with the following fall.

 

[coladin]

Trashing the character of a player by saying he was out of shape and didn't care and supporting it by quoting a goalie trashing the best D he would ever had in front of him is quite the mental gymnastics.

I bet Craig would have missed all the goals created by Karlsson as well and all the single handed zone exits.

That run in 2017 was smoke and mirrors and people paying attention knew it.

We had the 12th fewest goals for in the Eastern Conference (22nd in the league) and the 10th worst goal differential in the conference (18th in league).

Nothing pointed to that run as we were carried all season by Karlsson (who had to come back late in the season to get us there) and Andy.

The playoffs were some of the most exciting games I have been to but even being in the building you knew we were getting fortunate with incredibly well timed goals, etc...

Karlsson went God mode (and PPG) and a resurgent Bobby Ryan along with his buddy Clarkie and Andy again being great helped us get to 2OT in game 7.

Only blind optimism had some people believing we were legit Cup contenders. I think we would have beaten the Preds but it was lightning in a bottle. I went to every playoff game and it was amazing but I knew the overall team wasn't as good as the record.

The following season was destined to be worse and it was.

Ok.

But he was lazy and fat in 2017-2018. And I am so so glad you didn’t fall for the smoke and mirrors and probably hated every minute of the 2017 playoffs because you knew, even after upgrading Turris with Duchene, that it was smoke and mirrors.

This is so funny

 

[coladin]

You can't deny fact. Go ahead and calculate it yourself. 17pts in 14games.

You can argue that the fact they looked "poor", yet were still pulling out the points to be a playoff team, suggested that when the team got their act together that they would be a solid, contending team. There were positives to observe even: Brassard was having a bounce-back year, and Dzingel was breaking out.

These different possibilities get lost as history gets written, yet they were very valid in their time. Good on those who were ahead of the curve. I do think it's kind of absurd that people would expect the Sens to bottom out though; they had to go 1-12 in their return to North America to do so. That's worse than even the worst teams.

No no smoke and mirrors! They all saw it coming!

 

[OD99]

No no smoke and mirrors! They all saw it coming!

So you are saying that being wrong is the only answer? Everyone in the hockey world bought into the Senators being a Cup contender and everyone was wrong. That is the only "correct" way to have assessed the team?

That is the biggest load of BS ever.

Goal differential is a great indicator of how well or poor a team is playing and the fact is the team had a poor differential. That is a fact.

The following season wasn't going to change because we added Matt D while losing our top pair D and with Karlsson injured wouldn't be able to train properly.

If you are upset because you believed in them and they broke your heart that is fine but don't try and tell the rest of us watched and looked at the structure and the stats of the team and felt they wouldn't be a good team.

I didnt think they would be full basement but bottom 10 was likely.

And as I said...I was in the building for every home playoff game and it was amazing. A highlight of Senators history all-time.

 

[OD99]

You can't deny fact. Go ahead and calculate it yourself. 17pts in 14games.

You can argue that the fact they looked "poor", yet were still pulling out the points to be a playoff team, suggested that when the team got their act together that they would be a solid, contending team. There were positives to observe even: Brassard was having a bounce-back year, and Dzingel was breaking out.

These different possibilities get lost as history gets written, yet they were very valid in their time. Good on those who were ahead of the curve. I do think it's kind of absurd that people would expect the Sens to bottom out though; they had to go 1-12 in their return to North America to do so. That's worse than even the worst teams.

Of course those numbers add up but it's such a small sample and going off what I was watching I felt they weren't a good team.

I actually remember telling my son these loser points were making it seem we were better than we were.

Its OK, you thought they would get it together and I didn't. It's as simple as that and I don't get any satisfaction out of it either way.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

It's so absurd it actually happened!

For various reasons, many thought the trade was a bad one. In hindsight, it obviously was with how things played out, so what does that tell us. Some would have done it and some wouldn't. None of us were privy to the fact that they weren't re-signing anyone either and I don't think most were thinking full on trade everyone rebuild if it didn't work out.

 

[Ice-Tray]

It’s a false dichotomy to make the the only two options, bottom of the league or cup contender.

The team was at best a playoff team, at worst a bubble team that doesn’t make it. Anyone claiming the foresaw a last place collapse is full of it.

It was as epic a collapse as the Hamburgaler run was epic. Unforseeable brilliance/disaster.

 

[Mingus Dew]

Things are so black and white here. It's either "the 2017-2018 collapse was an absolute black swan event that no one could have seen coming and anyone claiming to the contrary is a liar!" or "everyone saw 2017-2018 coming it was 100% obvious to even the most casual observer".

The ECF run was lightning in a bottle. That team did not really look like a contender and the underlying metrics weren't there but they still found ways to win every night and in the playoffs that's what matters most. Hell look at Montreal recently - it happens.

We started off 2017-2018 in a fairly middling way. I definitely wasn't thinking that Ottawa was a bottom five team at that point but I was also waiting for the other shoe to drop a little bit. There were a lot of loser points and you could see that some of the stats were starting to catch up to the team.

The collapse post-Duchene was pretty spectacular and I think at least partially unexpected. That said, the environment prior to the trade was one of anxious anticipation and it was not the right time to make a move based on that environment alone. I can give Dorion some credit for thinking that the trade would shake things up and "right the ship". He probably thought that at worst our first rounder would be around 10 OA if things went bad. Still should not have made the trade in my opinion, but it's fair to say that Dorion got a bit unlucky.

 

[Micklebot]

The team was at best a playoff team, at worst a bubble team that doesn’t make it. Anyone claiming the foresaw a last place collapse is full of it.

I think that's a bit generous given we know they did collapse. At worst, they were a bottom feeder, as is clear by how events actually unfolded. Lots of people were critical of the trade at the time because they saw the team as not very good, you're right that nobody likely saw the team being as bad as it ended up, but there were plenty of people who saw bubble team as the best case scenario at the time, so framing that as the worst case scenario is wildly misleading.

 

[Micklebot]

Things are so black and white here. It's either "the 2017-2018 collapse was an absolute black swan event that no one could have seen coming and anyone claiming to the contrary is a liar!" or "everyone saw 2017-2018 coming it was 100% obvious to even the most casual observer".

The ECF run was lightning in a bottle. That team did not really look like a contender and the underlying metrics weren't there but they still found ways to win every night and in the playoffs that's what matters most. Hell look at Montreal recently - it happens.

We started off 2017-2018 in a fairly middling way. I definitely wasn't thinking that Ottawa was a bottom five team at that point but I was also waiting for the other shoe to drop a little bit. There were a lot of loser points and you could see that some of the stats were starting to catch up to the team.

The collapse post-Duchene was pretty spectacular and I think at least partially unexpected. That said, the environment prior to the trade was one of anxious anticipation and it was not the right time to make a move based on that environment alone. I can given Dorion some credit for thinking that the trade would shake things up and "right the ship". He probably thought that at worst our first rounder would be around 10 OA if things went bad. Still should not have made the trade in my opinion, but it's fair to say that Dorion got a bit unlucky.

The Mtl comparison seems apt. Lots of people around here were predicting Montreals collapse this year, pehaps not to the depths that occurred, but certainly called that they'd be bad. Same applies to the Sens after their ECF run, many people saw them regressing in a big way.

 

[Mingus Dew]

The Mtl comparison seems apt. Lots of people around here were predicting Montreals collapse this year, pehaps not to the depths that occurred, but certainly called that they'd be bad. Same applies to the Sens after their ECF run, many people saw them regressing in a big way.

Yes Montreal is a great and recent comparison.

I think a lot of us thought the Sens would regress in 2017-2018. I personally did not think that regression would be as bad as it actually was. Still, the likelihood that regression would occur made the Duchene trade ill-advised. I honestly think it was a misguided attempt to stave off that regression.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I think that's a bit generous given we know they did collapse. At worst, they were a bottom feeder, as is clear by how events actually unfolded. Lots of people were critical of the trade at the time because they saw the team as not very good, you're right that nobody likely saw the team being as bad as it ended up, but there were plenty of people who saw bubble team as the best case scenario at the time, so framing that as the worst case scenario is wildly misleading.

Sure, in hindsight. No one was arguing that we were a bottom feeder that year, most felt we weren’t an ECF team either.

First, it isn’t wildly misleading, tone it down a bit. Making the playoffs and missing the playoffs as a bubble team is a pretty small margin, and I’m comfortable that most people thought the team was somewhere in there.

‘Worst case’ and ‘best case’ were being used in a more relaxed sense referring to what folks thought was most likely, least likely instead of the more literal usage of the term, I assumed that would be obvious since worst case scenarios encompass a whole host of grizzly endings.

I’ll try and remember to use more precise terms in the future for clarity.

The Mtl comparison seems apt. Lots of people around here were predicting Montreals collapse this year, pehaps not to the depths that occurred, but certainly called that they'd be bad. Same applies to the Sens after their ECF run, many people saw them regressing in a big way.

Yeah not really though seeing as how their rise was during the pandemic season. The following season was not comparable to the previous experience. If anything the rise in the ‘Canadian division’ was the stand alone, given the complete one off circumstances.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Yes Montreal is a great and recent comparison.

I think a lot of us thought the Sens would regress in 2017-2018. I personally did not think that regression would be as bad as it actually was. Still, the likelihood that regression would occur made the Duchene trade ill-advised. I honestly think it was a misguided attempt to stave off that regression.

A push to try and make noise as the EK window was closing. We were also in the period where EM’s slogan was that all we had to do was make the playoffs and anything could happen.

That ECF run seemed to embolden that idea, which is great for a budget team that was at the time unwilling to ever spend to actually consistently compete.

The problem is that your really pushing to be a bubble team which isn’t exactly a lofty goal.

 

[Cosmix]

Yes Montreal is a great and recent comparison.

I think a lot of us thought the Sens would regress in 2017-2018. I personally did not think that regression would be as bad as it actually was. Still, the likelihood that regression would occur made the Duchene trade ill-advised. I honestly think it was a misguided attempt to stave off that regression.

I think it was an attempt to improve the roster by adding/improving the top line center. I initially liked the trade. Unfortunately it did not work out.

I think Duchene did not want to play in Ottawa and was planning to leave as soon as he became a UFA. The trade was inadvisable because of the risk of Duchene leaving when he became a UFA. We need to avoid those types of trades in the future as this team seems to be a budget cap floor type of team and not a cap ceiling team.

 

[Sweatred]

I think it was an attempt to improve the roster by adding/improving the top line center. I initially liked the trade. Unfortunately it did not work out.

I think Duchene did not want to play in Ottawa and was planning to leave as soon as he became a UFA. The trade was inadvisable because of the risk of Duchene leaving when he became a UFA. We need to avoid those types of trades in the future as this team seems to be a budget cap floor type of team and not a cap ceiling team.

Duchene played Ottawa telling them everything they wanted to hear … 4hrs from his moms place etc etc.

He knew he wouldn’t stay here and he knew he would get prime ice time for 1.5 years boosting his UFA value.

Lesson learned. Don’t do it again.

 

[coladin]

So you are saying that being wrong is the only answer? Everyone in the hockey world bought into the Senators being a Cup contender and everyone was wrong. That is the only "correct" way to have assessed the team?

That is the biggest load of BS ever.

Goal differential is a great indicator of how well or poor a team is playing and the fact is the team had a poor differential. That is a fact.

The following season wasn't going to change because we added Matt D while losing our top pair D and with Karlsson injured wouldn't be able to train properly.

If you are upset because you believed in them and they broke your heart that is fine but don't try and tell the rest of us watched and looked at the structure and the stats of the team and felt they wouldn't be a good team.

I didnt think they would be full basement but bottom 10 was likely.

And as I said...I was in the building for every home playoff game and it was amazing. A highlight of Senators history all-time.

Who called the Senators a "Cup Contender"?

I think that's a bit generous given we know they did collapse. At worst, they were a bottom feeder, as is clear by how events actually unfolded. Lots of people were critical of the trade at the time because they saw the team as not very good, you're right that nobody likely saw the team being as bad as it ended up, but there were plenty of people who saw bubble team as the best case scenario at the time, so framing that as the worst case scenario is wildly misleading.

I don't think anyone could have predicted them becoming a bootm feeder. If you want to say that "at worst" they could have been a bottom feeder, I suppose that could be said for any team. But for anyone watching in October, early November, I would be surprised if anyone had an inkling that that would actually happen. I certainly would have bet my house on it not happening

 

[OD99]

Who called the Senators a "Cup Contender"?


I don't think anyone could have predicted them becoming a bootm feeder. If you want to say that "at worst" they could have been a bottom feeder, I suppose that could be said for any team. But for anyone watching in October, early November, I would be surprised if anyone had an inkling that that would actually happen. I certainly would have bet my house on it not happening

Nice deflection. Why would a team trade their 1st RD pick if they didn't believe they were going to push in the playoffs?

They were an OT goal away for competing for the Cup and as I stated before I believe they would have beaten the Predators as they had some serious juju going on.

When the clock hit midnight they turned into a pumpkin again and the following season was destined to be disappointing.

After 20 games we were already -3 goal differential while also going +11 in 2 games against the Oilers and Flames in games 4 & 5 which was clearly an outlier. By the mid way mark of the season we were a staggering -33.

The fall waa foreseeable and swift.

 

[Big Muddy]

Ya, the whole idea of no one saw that we would be a "bottom feeder" is a red herring or artificial strawman I think.

The real issue was whether or not the Duchene trade was a smart trade and a worthwhile move given that it took a bunch of assets to land him.

It's not a question of whether the team lands at the bottom of the standings or near the bottom of the standings as that's not the issue. Its always a risk versus reward thing. The real question imho was by gaining Duchene, how much further would that advance the team and whether that was worth losing the assets involved. When you are acquiring a rental, you'll need a really good end result to justify losing the assets. The amount of term that Duchene had left on his contract was always a "buyer beware" signal, or should have been.

 

[Big Muddy]

Duchene played Ottawa telling them everything they wanted to hear … 4hrs from his moms place etc etc.

He knew he wouldn’t stay here and he knew he would get prime ice time for 1.5 years boosting his UFA value.

Lesson learned. Don’t do it again.

Smart people don't always listen to what people say and exercise good judgement.

 

[Ghost of Jody Hull]

The point is Karlsson was the best D and best player we had so it's odd to pick him out.

Craig had plenty to worry about for his own game.

It's also funny how Karlsson gets branded as "lacking character" because of missed practices, when Craig Anderson is perhaps the biggest practice slacker in the entire league. He himself has admitted, on the Wally and Methot show, that most of the time, he goes out and just stands there. It's rubbed coaches, and teammates, the wrong way, especially earlier on in his career.

The defense was a tire fire in 17/18, but Anderson's play also fell off a cliff.

Looking back, it was just a massive combination of terrible circumstances. Tough to predict, and tough to manage through.

Kind of like the Habs this year.

 

[OgieO]

Anyone else have a strong feeling of dread hearing PD looking to acquire a top forward and D? I give him a 10% chance of not making a move that pushes us backwards. Derick Brassard & Matt Duchene trades all over again.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

It's also funny how Karlsson gets branded as "lacking character" because of missed practices, when Craig Anderson is perhaps the biggest practice slacker in the entire league. He himself has admitted, on the Wally and Methot show, that most of the time, he goes out and just stands there. It's rubbed coaches, and teammates, the wrong way, especially earlier on in his career.

The defense was a tire fire in 17/18, but Anderson's play also fell off a cliff.

Looking back, it was just a massive combination of terrible circumstances. Tough to predict, and tough to manage through.

Kind of like the Habs this year.

Ya I have a real hard time with the idea of Craig Anderson criticizing anyone. Him and Condon were awful that year and Anderson continued that for 2 more seasons.

 

[HSF]

Duchene played Ottawa telling them everything they wanted to hear … 4hrs from his moms place etc etc.

He knew he wouldn’t stay here and he knew he would get prime ice time for 1.5 years boosting his UFA value.

Lesson learned. Don’t do it again.

uh? The Sens decided to rebuild. Once Mark Stone was ready to leave I doubt Duchene was going to stay here for a rebuild

Ottawa's fault was trading for Duchene then deciding 3 months later that they wanted to rebuild. I can see very legit reason why he was not going to sign here the whole landscape of the team changed