Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part VIII

[coladin]

Dorion did good to get Norris, but he got really lucky with the Shark's 1st. No one was expecting the 3rd pick after SJ had just finished the season 6th overall in the standings, following it up with a trip to the 3rd round. Their pic that year ended up as the 29th selection. I think that's where part of the disappointment in the return came from; no one expected a top 3 pick, not even Wilson. If the trade had happened in a similar fashion to the way Yashin was traded, and we knew the Sens were picking 3rd and getting one of Byfield or Timmy, the reaction would have been very different I'm sure.

Its good because it made up for giving up the 4OA so he breaks even there.

Funny, when Sakic lucked out with the 4th overall pick in the Duchene trade, people made him out to be brilliant. Interesting no one called him lucky around here.

I'm not sure why we should care about Friedman's opinion with regards to what is a purely business move..

Safe bet that Friedman knows Lajoie, Toronto is incestuous.

Because people care about what he says, all the time, all season until it doesn’t suit them

 

[BondraTime]

Funny, when Sakic lucked out with the 4th overall pick in the Duchene trade, people made him out to be brilliant. Interesting no one called him lucky around here.

Sakic traded for the pick in the midst of a meltdown on a team that was playing extremely bad that lost it's #2D and replaced him with Oduya, and had a broken down Karlsson join the team 2 weeks into the season.

Sharks broke down close to 2 years after the pick was traded

One was very forseeable, the other much less so.

Perfectly fair to call the Karlsson trade a huge win, just like it's perfectly fine to call the Duchene trade a huge loss.

Both were lucky to get picks so high, one was much, much, much more lucky

 

[Bevans]

Funny, when Sakic lucked out with the 4th overall pick in the Duchene trade, people made him out to be brilliant. Interesting no one called him lucky around here.


Because people care about what he says, all the time, all season until it doesn’t suit them

It's a fair point. And arguably moving Turris out (instead of resigning him) was practically worth a 1st round pick for dodging that bullet.

Senators never would have bought out that contract when Nashville did.

 

[UglyPuckling]

So, Sakic was lucky and Dorion was brilliant in getting San Jose's pick that eventually turned out to be Stutzle?

I guess we are lucky to have Dorion then versus that crappy Sakic as GM.

Hope so because that means Dorion should have a great summer with all the teams that have cap woes, and we should make the playoffs easily then this upcoming season. Good to know.

 

[BondraTime]

It's a fair point. And arguably moving Turris out (instead of resigning him) was practically worth a 1st round pick for dodging that bullet.

Senators never would have bought out that contract when Nashville did.

Was worth much more than a 1st round pick. Was worth a 2nd + a 19 year old D that’s currently playing 22 mins a night on the best team in the league, +whatever you value at dodging his contract.

Instead of taking that return we sent that all to Colorado.

 

[umma gumma]

Funny, when Sakic lucked out with the 4th overall pick in the Duchene trade, people made him out to be brilliant. Interesting no one called him lucky around here.


Because people care about what he says, all the time, all season until it doesn’t suit them

Sakic traded for the pick in the midst of a meltdown on a team that was playing extremely bad that lost it's #2D and replaced him with Oduya, and had a broken down Karlsson join the team 2 weeks into the season.

Sharks broke down close to 2 years after the pick was traded

One was very forseeable, the other much less so.

Thank you.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Luck or no luck, crazy to think that SJ was two wins away from giving us their 2021 1st round pick in addition to whatever we got. Who the hell knows who we would have taken, but Eklund, Clarke, and Guenther were available there.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Yeah the revisionist history is lame.

The key thing to keep in mind here Karlsson had won two Norris trophies and looked great even after injury. We got a roster player, a blue chip prospect and a draft pick from a team that had come off a season comfortably making the playoffs.

I'm a little uneasy giving Dorion credit for San Jose failing but to his credit he picked Stutzle and that looks very promising.

I think it's worth looking at the Duchene deal what it cost us and what Colorado got:

Turris, a second line center
Hammond a backup goalie who had a miracle run
Bowers blue chip prospect, a first round pick by used the draft preceding the trade
Conditional 1st pick that ended up being 4th overall in 2019

Now what did Colorado give for Duchene once we look at what we gave up:

Girard - a young defenseman, bluechip prospect out of Nashville
Bowers - a first round pick out of Ottawa
Kamenev - Russian player, not anything significant
An Ottawa 1st round pick (ended up being 4th overall in 2019)
A Nashville 2nd round pick
an Ottawa 3rd round pick.

And either way you slice it we gave up more or Colorado got more for a centerman who has never won anything than Dorion got for a 2x Norris winner.

Whyyy it won’t you give credit to Dorion for Sharks plummeting but you’ll give credit to Colorado for us plummeting? (Neither deserve credit)

Sakic traded for the pick in the midst of a meltdown on a team that was playing extremely bad that lost it's #2D and replaced him with Oduya, and had a broken down Karlsson join the team 2 weeks into the season.

Sharks broke down close to 2 years after the pick was traded

One was very forseeable, the other much less so.

Perfectly fair to call the Karlsson trade a huge win, just like it's perfectly fine to call the Duchene trade a huge loss.

Both were lucky to get picks so high, one was much, much, much more lucky

Didn’t we start that season particularly well. And then we started to falter after we got back from Sweden when we made the duchene deal.

 

[slamigo]

I am not surprised to see the people questioning Brady cheering for his brother to be what I would expect. For the record, if PK was cheering his brother I would be totally fine with it as well. I think when people are concerned about image more than reality, they lose touch with what they are actually viewing. To each their own, but I love how Brady is cheering on his brother and you get the feeling Matthew would do the same if the roles were reversed. How cool would that be!

Exactly. Family first. But also, this transcends family into 'hockey family'. The Tkachuk's are becoming synonymous with hockey. The exude it. They love it. It's contagious. They are incredibly unbelievably marketable. Brady is the best thing to happen to Ottawa in a long time. Him cheering on his brother from another team is so Canadian. So hockey.
Anyone who has an issue with this is embarrassing themselves. Go away trolls.

 

[BondraTime]

Whyyy it won’t you give credit to Dorion for Sharks plummeting but you’ll give credit to Colorado for us plummeting? (Neither deserve credit)


Didn’t we start that season particularly well. And then we started to falter after we got back from Sweden when we made the duchene deal.

Had 5 regulation/OT wins in the first 14 games prior to the trade, were getting by on loser points.

 

[Bevans]

Was worth much more than a 1st round pick. Was worth a 2nd + a 19 year old D that’s currently playing 22 mins a night on the best team in the league, +whatever you value at dodging his contract.

Instead of taking that return we sent that all to Colorado.

I don't really understand how this comports with my post.

Im just agreeing that Dorion traded a 1st, not a 4th overall(at the time).

And that the benefit of including turris in the trade is very high.

Dorion had the foresight to sell high on a declining asset. And he lacked the foresight to see that the senators would become so bad.

 

[BondraTime]

I don't really understand how this comports with my post.

Im just agreeing that Dorion traded a 1st, not a 4th overall(at the time).

And that the benefit of including turris in the trade is very high.

Dorion had the foresight to sell high on a declining asset. And he lacked the foresight to see that the senators would become so bad.

You said moving Turris was practically worth a 1st for getting out of the contract. Sure, getting out of that contract was great. They weren’t signing him the writing was on the wall prior to the start of the season. Getting out of the Turris contract was worth much more than a 1st, seeing he actually returned a 2nd + 19 year old D + prospect. That was value we bungled considering we decided to rebuild a month and a half later.

We traded a 1st away, in a terrible spot where we were at best a playoff bubble team. It’s water under the bridge at this point, but looking at that roster impartially it was awful.

They knew they were getting a high pick as soon as the Sens decided to blow up their team a month and a half after the trade, there was nowhere for them to go the next season the Avs owned the pick.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Exactly. Family first. But also, this transcends family into 'hockey family'. The Tkachuk's are becoming synonymous with hockey. The exude it. They love it. It's contagious. They are incredibly unbelievably marketable. Brady is the best thing to happen to Ottawa in a long time. Him cheering on his brother from another team is so Canadian. So hockey.
Anyone who has an issue with this is embarrassing themselves. Go away trolls.

Not seeing many people here at all that have an issue with this. Maybe Twitter is a better place for this?

 

[Knave]

Whyyy it won’t you give credit to Dorion for Sharks plummeting but you’ll give credit to Colorado for us plummeting? (Neither deserve credit)

Sure but I'd point out we were a borderline playoff team who put in place a protection for our 1st round pick and San Jose had comfortably made the playoffs and did not protect its first round pick.

It's a fair point. And arguably moving Turris out (instead of resigning him) was practically worth a 1st round pick for dodging that bullet.

Senators never would have bought out that contract when Nashville did.

Sure but it's a common theme - Dorion moves out picks to avoid bad decisions and then makes them anyways (Murray as an example). At first it was 'oh just a fourth' then 'oh just a third' and then 'oh just a second' and now it's 'thank god we traded away our 1st round pick so Dorion didn't make a dumb decision'.

Does that not mean we should find a new manager? That we're basically fine trading away picks in any round like candy if it helps Dorion in avoiding making a decision on a player on the roster?

 

[UglyPuckling]

How long did we have Duchene - 1 1/2 years? Seems odd to go for it with a trade for a player like Duchene and giving up assets to deciding to rebuild a short time later and to start selling off assets. Is that a sign of a good assessment and a good tactician at work?

 

[Micklebot]

Whyyy it won’t you give credit to Dorion for Sharks plummeting but you’ll give credit to Colorado for us plummeting? (Neither deserve credit)

It's hard to know what Sakic and Dorion were expecting to happen when they made the trades, but credit should be given when someone predicts an outcome correctly.

Sakic predicted that his team would be better off trading off Duchene, and getting the assets in return. He was right about that, or at least, it appears he was. Did he predict that the Sens would crash down and the pick he traded for would end up top 5, who knows, but there were clearly some indicators that the Sens were going to have a very rough season; Karlsson was not at all himself. Methot was replaced with Daley who was a borderline 3rd pair guy. Brassard was clearly impacted by offseason shoulder surgery. The teams record was heavily inflated by loser points.

Did Dorion foresee SJ collapsing, well there were signs that they would start to decline soon, though I think the speed at which it happened surprised most out there. Dorion was including clauses to protect against SJ winning the cup (converting a 2nd to a first if they went to the SCF) so at least on the surface, it looks more like he thought they would be good, however he likely knew that the 1st would be an extra year down the road since Buf already had their 1st in year one provided they made the playoffs. It's possible he was playing both sides.

The truth is only Dorion and Sakic really know if they got lucky or not. There's some evidence we can look to in determining how likely it was that they knew all along, but it's just speculation unless they come out and spill the beans.

 

[Micklebot]

Sure but I'd point out we were a borderline playoff team who put in place a protection for our 1st round pick and San Jose had comfortably made the playoffs and did not protect its first round pick.



Sure but it's a common theme - Dorion moves out picks to avoid bad decisions and then makes them anyways (Murray as an example). At first it was 'oh just a fourth' then 'oh just a third' and then 'oh just a second' and now it's 'thank god we traded away our 1st round pick so Dorion didn't make a dumb decision'.

Does that not mean we should find a new manager? That we're basically fine trading away picks in any round like candy if it helps Dorion in avoiding making a decision on a player on the roster?

To be fair, SJ couldn't really protect their first, they'd already done so prior so we were getting whichever one Buffalo didn't from the Kane trade.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I would do that Duchene trade over and over and over…. He’s the only guy that we traded that I really wanted to stay.

Having said that, we learned a hard lesson and won’t be trading important assets for a guy that is super close to FA again without an extension in place.

Duchene on our team right would be awesome. One thing to note though is that it’s the first time our team’s GM went out and traded for the top available young talent, so we know he has it in him.

We also didn’t even give up that much. Turris and what should have been mid to late 1st was a pretty good deal. If we could get away with that kind of deal for Fiala we’d all be pretty stoked I think.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Matt Duchene

for

1st
2nd
3rd
Bowers
Samuel Girard
Vladislav Kamenev
Andrew Hammond

or

Erik Karlsson
Francis Perron

for

1st
2nd (conditional on re-signing)
Josh Norris
Chris Tierney
Rudolfs Balcers
Dylan Demelo


I would say they cancel each other out nicely and is mostly a wash, but Stutzle and Norris being as high calibur as they are puts that one on top, no doubt imo. Would have been nice to get something for the NHL player formerly known as Chris Tierney, but that's on him for playing so poorly and ultimately being overpaid.

 

[Ghost of Jody Hull]

We also didn’t even give up that much. Turris and what should have been mid to late 1st was a pretty good deal. If we could get away with that kind of deal for Fiala we’d all be pretty stoked I think.

The "equivalent" trade today would be something like: Connor Brown + Tyler Boucher + 1st in 2023 for Kevin Fiala.

The problem, IMO, wasn't the price we paid for Duchene.

The problem was that we went "all-in" by acquiring another forward when, at the time, our defense consisted of a diminished version of Karlsson coming off major surgery, an aging Dion Phaneuf, Cody Ceci, Johnny Oduya, Freddy Claesson and Mark Borowiecki.

We should have used those assets to replace Methot.

Before the trade, we were having no problem scoring goals. We had scored 51 goals in 14 games (3.6 goals/game). Offense was humming. But we had given up 47 goals in the same 14 games (3.4 goals/game). Defense was trash.

It was a misread on what the team needed.

 

[Ice-Tray]

The "equivalent" trade today would be something like: Connor Brown + Tyler Boucher + 1st in 2023 for Kevin Fiala.

The problem, IMO, wasn't the price we paid for Duchene.

The problem was that we went "all-in" by acquiring another forward when, at the time, our defense consisted of a diminished version of Karlsson coming off major surgery, an aging Dion Phaneuf, Cody Ceci, Johnny Oduya, Freddy Claesson and Mark Borowiecki.

We should have used those assets to replace Methot.

Before the trade, we were having no problem scoring goals. We had scored 51 goals in 14 games (3.6 goals/game). Offense was humming. But we had given up 47 goals in the same 14 games (3.4 goals/game). Defense was trash.

It was a misread on what the team needed.

Oh I don’t doubt it, and don’t want to rehash it all, but we needed a true 1C and we actually went out and got the very best one available who was young and extremely talented. That guy was Eichel this year.

As for the trade, it’s more like Brown and next years first, no Boucher.

We were a heavily budgeted team that was trying to make another run before the window closed. We needed other pieces but had the dough for one.

It wasn’t a misread as our centre depth was bad and we didn’t have a top line centre, nor did we have anyone at all up front as skilled as Duchene.

But you’re right, we needed something more on the back end. The collapse was due to neither though in the end. It was a lockeroom collapse that sunk the team. We’ll never know how good that team could have been had they all been on the same page playing as a team.

 

[Ghost of Jody Hull]

Oh I don’t doubt it, and don’t want to rehash it all, but we needed a true 1C and we actually went out and got the very best one available who was young and extremely talented. That guy was Eichel this year.

As for the trade, it’s more like Brown and next years first, no Boucher.

We were a heavily budgeted team that was trying to make another run before the window closed. We needed other pieces but had the dough for one.

It wasn’t a misread as our centre depth was bad and we didn’t have a top line centre, nor did we have anyone at all up front as skilled as Duchene.

But you’re right, we needed something more on the back end. The collapse was due to neither though in the end. It was a lockeroom collapse that sunk the team. We’ll never know how good that team could have been had they all been on the same page playing as a team.

We had just made the ECF with the centers we had. As I mentioned, scoring goals was not a problem. We were scoring tons of goals. But we lost our #2 defenseman in expansion, did nothing to replace him, and Karlsson's injury severely impacted his ability to play at the level we needed. We couldn't defend.

Also, we were losing games and out of playoff contention well before any locker room issues popped up. Losing exacerbated the locker room problems, not the other way around. Things got bad in the room at the end of the season, not at the beginning. It's not surprising. Losing breeds negativity.

It was a misread.

And Boucher is an equivalent prospect to Bowers, which is why I included him. Brown is equivalent to Turris (28 years old and 1-year away from UFA). The 1st is the 1st.

 

[Ice-Tray]

We had just made the ECF with the centers we had. As I mentioned, scoring goals was not a problem. We were scoring tons of goals. But we lost our #2 defenseman and did nothing to replace him. We couldn't defend.

Also, w were losing games and out of playoff contention well before any locker room issues popped up. Losing exacerbated the locker room problems, not the other way around. Things got bad in the room at the end of the season, not at the beginning.

It was a misread.

And Boucher is an equivalent prospect to Bowers, which is why I included him. Brown is equivalent to Turris (28 years old and 1-year away from UFA). The 1st is the 1st.

Well, I don’t really buy using the conference finals as a plus or minus however it suits the discussion.

Yes we made it there, but we had a pretty fortunate set of circumstances, that would be unlikely to repeat. We did not have a great group of forwards, our best offence came from a defenceman.

No, the locker room issues came up before the general public knew about them, and losing some games early isn’t the same as the epic collapse that ensued. No, the lockeroom issues were not caused by wins and losses, we have a lot of insight into what happened from players that were there. What happened on the ice was a symptom of the lockeroom collapse. It’s crazy to downplay what happened now, and I’m not sure why anyone would do it. Guys like Anderson and Burrows amongst others have been pretty open about it.

Yes we also needed help on defence, and Anderson was having his up and down seasons no argument there, though Methot was a top 4 defender not a top 2 guy in terms of talent.

Brown is a better player than Turris right now in my opinion, our first next year looks to be closer to a lottery puck than the one we traded for Duchene (in terms of expectations), and Bowers is not the same level of prospect as Boucher, at all.

We disagree on most fronts here it seems, but I’m cool with that. Good chats.

 

[Silencio]

If we're still rehashing the Duchene deal, I'm curious to see how people feel about Dorion keeping the 2018 4th pick (Brady) over the 2019 4th (Byram, presumably).

 

[Hale The Villain]

Sakic traded for the pick in the midst of a meltdown on a team that was playing extremely bad that lost it's #2D and replaced him with Oduya, and had a broken down Karlsson join the team 2 weeks into the season.

Sharks broke down close to 2 years after the pick was traded

One was very forseeable, the other much less so.

Perfectly fair to call the Karlsson trade a huge win, just like it's perfectly fine to call the Duchene trade a huge loss.

Both were lucky to get picks so high, one was much, much, much more lucky

Perfectly said.