Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part IX [Mod Warning in post 1)

[Micklebot]

Yes, the acquiring team could have pulled out and let Karlsson walk if his health and play continued to deteriorate (Wilson choosing the opposite route got him fired and put SJ in purgatory for the next several years). But they would not have been able to recoup the assets they paid to acquire him from Ottawa. Hence why they weren't willing to pony up all that much.

Ergo - the return that Ottawa received, even if you look at the value of assets at the time, was fine.

And great, Karlsson put up points in 17/18. He put up points in 18/19 too, his first year in San Jose. But he was still a shell of his former self, and couldn't defend. He continued to take risks offensively, but wasn't able to get back the way he did in his prime. He's since adjusted to play a safer game and now isn't all that great at either end.

Buffalo is better off for the simple reason that they were able to reset their entire culture. Eichel had become a cancer for that organization. Vegas is in cap hell with an aging, injury prone core.

Karlsson was still a net positive impact his first year with SJ, injuries hit him pretty quickly though and he hasn't been healthy since. He proved in the playoffs that his defensive play wasn't reliant on his skating when he went to the ECF with us on one leg, the issue is between his ears and when the stakes aren't high he lacks focus.

But the point about mitigating the risk by moving on was the doomsday scenario where Karlsson declined immediately, that didn't happen, he was an effective player for them but got hurt around the deadline. I guess they should have known his health would have deteriorated despite him playing 71 games his last year with us after missing a half dozen at the start of the year to his surgery and after reviewing the med file, which Dorion indicated after the trade no team raised the players health as a concern in negotiations.

Let's wait and see how Buffalo does with this reset culture before saying they are better off, seems a lot like your skapgoating Eichel to me. I'm sure Buffalo is more than willing to perpetuate that narrative given they probably feel like he hung them out to dry, but there going to need more than that to turn things around.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Bingo. Let's not forget that the Sens advertised this trade as "Sens acquire six assets" and not "Sens acquire Josh Norris and more."

The revisionism here is staggering.

Go listen to Pierre’s trade conference, he talks up all of the pieces. A first, 2 seconds, 2 high end prospects including last year’s first rounder, and their top AHL scorer. A young 40 point centre, and a top six RD.

So no, that’s not how it was billed, that’s just how all of the angry fans remember it. It was six assets, but it was six good to excellent assets. Understandably all many people cared about was losing EK for six assets, without really paying attention to, or knowing what those assets were. Those of us who had grown a little tired of EKs leadership were more interested in the return than the player leaving.

As for Norris at the time of the trade and after…

Edit: here are direct quotes from coach Bill Muckalt after the trade.

…Michigan associate coach Bill Muckalt believes Norris is only scratching the surface of his potential and is primed for a breakout campaign… “The Senators are getting a great kid and competitor,” Muckalt told Sporting News. “He’s a trusted player in all situations. Josh is a 200-foot player who possesses a combination of skill and grit. He has a very good release, shot, also good vision. Josh has taken great strides this summer. He looks more confident, stronger and is poised to have a big year for us.”

Here is Troy’s assessment after Norris’ arrival:

Belleville coach Troy Mann admitted Norris started slowly as he shook off the rust from the season-ending injury and the team dealt with its own struggles, but he’s proved to be a “high-end talent.”

“(I) didn’t know much about him prior to coaching him here this September, and he’s been real fantastic. His play (with the puck) is continually improved, and his play without the puck,” he said.

“But, in terms of his skill set, he can skate, he can shoot, he’s got good vision, very, very coachable and he’s a real good one as well.”

Not exactly how people are trying to frame things in here at all. This doesn’t sound like a diminished asset picked in the first round. Kind of the opposite really.

So if I can sum this all up

At the time of the trade it was a horrible return

Notwithstanding it worked out really well it was still a horrible trade

Another way of wording that I was right then, but even though I'm horribly wrong now, I'm still right

You forgot: “Dorion sucks!!!!”

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

So no, that’s not how it was billed, that’s just how all of the angry fans remember it.

Attribute whatever value you want to Pierre's hype, but please don't tell me I'm wrong when I'm not.

 

[thinkwild]

Reading this thread made me empathize with this poor dog.



I remember being sure we would get two firsts when trading Spezza. And asking for Sergachev, Point and 1sts from TB for EK. Man my expectations for trade values are still stuck in the old pre cap days i guess.

 

[bicboi64]

I'm intrigued by the discussion y'all are having about the Karlsson trade.

Players like him don't get traded very often and he was still an elite player at the time of the trade. To say that anyone should have seen his decline doesn't make sense considering how good he was the year right before he was moved.

Having said that, if Dorion & co didn't think Norris could be a legit top 6 forward for us or that they could turn him into one and they still traded for him, that's just pathetic. DeMelo was a #4 defender, Tierney was a young 3C who showed flashes of being able to be a 2C, the 1st rounder was expected to be in the 20s which is why the conditional picks were probably added. Norris better have been expected by management to be a key piece of the future, especially if they drafted Brady, someone Norris is friends with. IF management didn't think he had legit 2c potential at the least, that looks very bad and Dorion is lucky that Norris panned out and that the Sharks started declining.

I think if the return was similar to a first rounder, one of Meier/Hertl, DeMelo and Balcers (or another AHL proven prospect), that would have been received better at the time considering how underwhelming the return looked at the time of the trade.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Attribute whatever value you want to Pierre's hype, but please don't tell me I'm wrong when I'm not.

You are wrong. That’s not billing it as ‘six assets’ that’s counting them.

Saying the number of assets isn’t the same as touting quantity over quality. Angry Sens fans making a meme doesn’t make it a Sens release.

We returned quality assets for EK.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I'm intrigued by the discussion y'all are having about the Karlsson trade.

Players like him don't get traded very often and he was still an elite player at the time of the trade. To say that anyone should have seen his decline doesn't make sense considering how good he was the year right before he was moved.

Having said that, if Dorion & co didn't think Norris could be a legit top 6 forward for us or that they could turn him into one and they still traded for him, that's just pathetic. DeMelo was a #4 defender, Tierney was a young 3C who showed flashes of being able to be a 2C, the 1st rounder was expected to be in the 20s which is why the conditional picks were probably added. Norris better have been expected by management to be a key piece of the future, especially if they drafted Brady, someone Norris is friends with. IF management didn't think he had legit 2c potential at the least, that looks very bad and Dorion is lucky that Norris panned out and that the Sharks started declining.

I think if the return was similar to a first rounder, one of Meier/Hertl, DeMelo and Balcers (or another AHL proven prospect), that would have been received better at the time considering how underwhelming the return looked at the time of the trade.

EK was on the decline, he was just coming down from a very high place.

Lots of people in here were not comfortable with the term and price he wanted, his comments in the media, or his leadership of the team.

It was a turning point for sure, and I think we all have fond memories to some degree, but trading him was an acceptable decision to many folks at the time.

 

[KingAlfie11]

Lots of people in here were not comfortable with the term and price he wanted, his comments in the media, or his leadership of the team.

I was one of those people who wasn't comfortable with signing EK long term, because of all his injuries he suffered, and the franchise needed a total rebuild, even with EK we made the playoffs 1 out of every 2 seasons, and the atmosphere in the dressing room was not good. And looking back on it now it was the right decision. Listen EK is one of the best player this franchise ever had along with Alfredsson, one day his jersey will be retired, he was electric and I sure do appreciate being able to watch him perform here in Ottawa in his prime.

 

[Micklebot]

Not exactly how people are trying to frame things in here at all. This doesn’t sound like a diminished asset picked in the first round. Kind of the opposite really.

Because he played another season in college after the initial one and made big strides, we traded for him Coming off a bad season, he arrived in Belleville coming off a good, albeit injury shortened, season. Things can change with 19 yr olds that put in the work.

If we were to trade Boucher today, we'd likely not get full value relative to his draft pedigree given how rough a D+1 he had, if he has a great season and we trade him after that, he'd likely not be viewed in the same light as today, pretty straight forward, no?

 

[Tuna99]

Karlsson was still a net positive impact his first year with SJ, injuries hit him pretty quickly though and he hasn't been healthy since. He proved in the playoffs that his defensive play wasn't reliant on his skating when he went to the ECF with us on one leg, the issue is between his ears and when the stakes aren't high he lacks focus.

But the point about mitigating the risk by moving on was the doomsday scenario where Karlsson declined immediately, that didn't happen, he was an effective player for them but got hurt around the deadline. I guess they should have known his health would have deteriorated despite him playing 71 games his last year with us after missing a half dozen at the start of the year to his surgery and after reviewing the med file, which Dorion indicated after the trade no team raised the players health as a concern in negotiations.

Let's wait and see how Buffalo does with this reset culture before saying they are better off, seems a lot like your skapgoating Eichel to me. I'm sure Buffalo is more than willing to perpetuate that narrative given they probably feel like he hung them out to dry, but there going to need more than that to turn things around.

EK was good for SJ his first year, he set a record for most assists in a playoff series by a Dman

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Let’s all remember that EK65 started the ball rolling on his trade to SJ. He and Drew Doughty both made comments the year before they were to become UFAs, saying they were going to get paid what they wanted….. they both had the same agent at the time, and most likely coordinated their comments, to send a message to their respective (Team) owners.

 

[bicboi64]

EK was good for SJ his first year, he set a record for most assists in a playoff series by a Dman

Karlsson was arguably Conn Smythe calibre for the Sharks in that playoffs. Him, Burns, and Couture were playing beast mode and if they didn't absolutely choke in game 7 against Vegas, he'd get Conn Smythe nods if they beat the caps.

Sure he declined, but the man was a key reason SJ made it to the WCF and he did it on one leg.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Let’s all remember that EK65 started the ball rolling on his trade to SJ. He and Drew Doughty both made comments the year before they were to become UFAs, saying they were going to get paid what they wanted….. they both had the same agent at the time, and most likely coordinated their comments, to send a message to their respective (Team) owners.

Huh? There's nothing wrong with a player getting paid at a level that matches their output.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Huh? There's nothing wrong with a player getting paid at a level that matches their output.

Correct…. And EK Knew he was not going to get a “Max Deal” with Ottawa…. That’s why he said ( you watched it ) “ no matter where I play “ when referencing his impending UFA status….. it was a clear signal that he knew he was going to be traded….. perhaps even triggering the trade…. As he was putting the writings on the wall, so all to see.
And now, thank goodness the trade was made, as signing him to a max deal in Ottawa would have been a disaster.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Correct…. And EK Knew he was not going to get a “Max Deal” with Ottawa…. That’s why he said ( you watched it ) “ no matter where I play “ when referencing his impending UFA status….. it was a clear signal that he knew he was going to be traded….. perhaps even triggering the trade…. As he was putting the writings on the wall, so all to see.
And now, thank goodness the trade was made, as signing him to a max deal in Ottawa would have been a disaster.

I mean, yeah, we all knew he was getting traded. Not sure how that impacts any of the discussion being had on process vs. results?

 

[HSF]

Correct…. And EK Knew he was not going to get a “Max Deal” with Ottawa…. That’s why he said ( you watched it ) “ no matter where I play “ when referencing his impending UFA status….. it was a clear signal that he knew he was going to be traded….. perhaps even triggering the trade…. As he was putting the writings on the wall, so all to see.
And now, thank goodness the trade was made, as signing him to a max deal in Ottawa would have been a disaster.

I mean how is this any different from our captain Tkachuk saying Norris is going to get paid or even Tkachuk himself getting paid.

seems like a double standard.

Melnyk did not want to pay Karlsson and he had already decided that he was going to be traded before all the town hall nonsense

 

[Bileur]

I’m starting to get the impression that you guys might not be able to convince each other and that this isn’t a great use of time.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I mean, yeah, we all knew he was getting traded. Not sure how that impacts any of the discussion being had on process vs. results?

I love the new "process vs results" angle I'm learning about. It's made me rethink a whole host of things:

Was drafting Alex Daigle over Chris Pronger and Paul Kariya a mistake ? No! At the time, Daigle was the consensus first overall pick so we cannot call it a mistake.

Was signing Wade Redden over Zdeno Chara a mistake? No! At the time, Redden was a premier puck moving defenseman when the league was transitioning to speed and skill, while Chara was just exposed against the Sabres in the playoffs. We cannot call it a mistake.

Was trading Alexei Yashin for Chara, the 2nd overall pick (Spezza) and Muckalt a good trade? No! Yashin was 26 years old, had just put up another PPG season, and was only a couple years removed from finishing 2nd in Hart trophy voting. There was no way to assume a decline! Meanwhile, while the 2nd overall pick was high, it was no sure thing to become an MVP calibre player, and Chara was nothing more than a #6 defenseman who fought a lot on Long Island. We cannot call it a good trade.

A whole new world when you look at things this way!

 

[Ice-Tray]

I’m starting to get the impression that you guys might not be able to convince each other and that this isn’t a great use of time.

Thanks man, this made me burst out laughing!!

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I love the new "process vs results" angle I'm learning about. It's made me rethink a whole host of things:

Was drafting Alex Daigle over Chris Pronger and Paul Kariya a mistake ? No! At the time, Daigle was the consensus first overall pick so we cannot call it a mistake.

Was signing Wade Redden over Zdeno Chara a mistake? No! At the time, Redden was a premier puck moving defenseman when the league was transitioning to speed and skill, while Chara was just exposed against the Sabres in the playoffs. We cannot call it a mistake.

Was trading Alexei Yashin for Chara, the 2nd overall pick (Spezza) and Muckalt a good trade? No! Yashin was 26 years old, had just put up another PPG season, and was only a couple years removed from finishing 2nd in Hart trophy voting. There was no way to assume a decline! Meanwhile, while the 2nd overall pick was high, it was no sure thing to become an MVP calibre player, and Chara was nothing more than a #6 defenseman who fought a lot on Long Island. We cannot call it a good trade.

A whole new world when you look at things this way!

You're absolutely correct on all three fronts! It's possible to get good results from lousy process just like it's possible to get bad results from good process. But good process leads to more consistently positive results than bad process does.

For every Daigle and Yakupov, you also have Crosby and McDavid.

For every Redden over Chara-type move, you also have Rask over Raycroft-type moves.

For every Yashin for Chara, 1st (Spezza) and Muckalt type trade, you also have Hossa and Dupuis for Angelo Esposito, Erik Christensen, Colby Armstrong and a 1st (Daultan Leveille) type trade.

 

[Micklebot]

I love the new "process vs results" angle I'm learning about. It's made me rethink a whole host of things:

Was drafting Alex Daigle over Chris Pronger and Paul Kariya a mistake ? No! At the time, Daigle was the consensus first overall pick so we cannot call it a mistake.

Was signing Wade Redden over Zdeno Chara a mistake? No! At the time, Redden was a premier puck moving defenseman when the league was transitioning to speed and skill, while Chara was just exposed against the Sabres in the playoffs. We cannot call it a mistake.

Was trading Alexei Yashin for Chara, the 2nd overall pick (Spezza) and Muckalt a good trade? No! Yashin was 26 years old, had just put up another PPG season, and was only a couple years removed from finishing 2nd in Hart trophy voting. There was no way to assume a decline! Meanwhile, while the 2nd overall pick was high, it was no sure thing to become an MVP calibre player, and Chara was nothing more than a #6 defenseman who fought a lot on Long Island. We cannot call it a good trade.

A whole new world when you look at things this way!

While you belittle the concept, good processes can have poor results, just like poor process can have good results, this is true in every walk of life, but does that mean you should abandon evaluating how you made past decisions with the goal of improving your process for future ones? Of course not.

Sometimes variables outside your control impact the results, injuries upended Redden's career, mental health/motivation issues derailed Daigle's, Yashin pretty much forced his way out so not sure what you're on about there.

But go ahead and act like it's absurd to look at how we got there. It really paints you as the rational one.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Thanks man, this made me burst out laughing!!

He wasn't joking...

 

[DaveMatthew]

While you belittle the concept, good processes can have poor results, just like poor process can have good results, this is true in every walk of life, but does that mean you should abandon evaluating how you made past decisions with the goal of improving your process for future ones? Of course not.

Sometimes variables outside your control impact the results, injuries upended Redden's career, mental health/motivation issues derailed Daigle's, Yashin pretty much forced his way out so not sure what you're on about there.

But go ahead and act like it's absurd to look at how we got there. It really paints you as the rational one.

Well the problem is that fans don't know what the process was. Nobody knows what the analysis on each player acquired was. Nobody knows how the organization viewed Karlsson's future outlook. You're making a ton of assumptions, based on your opinion of the situation.

Maybe the organization valued Chris Tierney as the young, future top 6 center in the deal? After all, he was just 23 and had put up 40 points, on a 100pt team, despite getting limited PP time. Perhaps their "process" indicated that with more opportunity, he would continue developing and become a 55-65 point guy for the next 5 years. After all, he did show good offensive ability in the OHL and AHL after he was drafted.

Obviously, if that was the case, they were massively wrong in hindsight, but we're not judging the result here, right?

 

[Micklebot]

Well the problem is that fans don't know what the process was. Nobody knows what the analysis on each player acquired was. Nobody knows how the organization viewed Karlsson's future outlook. You're making a ton of assumptions, based on your opinion of the situation.

Maybe the organization valued Chris Tierney as the young, future top 6 center in the deal? After all, he was just 23 and had put up 40 points, on a 100pt team, despite getting limited PP time. Perhaps their "process" indicated that with more opportunity, he would continue developing. After all, he did show good offensive ability in the OHL and AHL after he was drafted.

Obviously, if that was the case, they were massively wrong in hindsight, but we're not judging the result here, right?

Hmm, I think your process of using absurd hypotheses in an attempt to prove your point leaves a lot to be desired, I'm not interested in your strawman presentations, so I think I'll move on. It was a nice chat though.

 

[Ice-Tray]

He wasn't joking...

I know, that’s how this place is, but it was funny deadpan comedy to me this morning….