Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part IX [Mod Warning in post 1)

[swiftwin]

It's very unusual for rebuilding teams to start trading 1sts and be right up against the cap before actually turning the corner into a playoff team. And it puts them in a tough place, because more assets are going to have to be jettisoned to supplement the existing core without taking on salary. They likely have to trade for a goalie this offseason, and probably some help for a thin bottom-6. Both of those additions will have to have small cap hits, but also be impact players. That will cost significant pick/prospect capital.

There's a bit more flexibility if Debrincat is traded, but that also opens up a hole in the top-6.

It's painfully obvious that we're up against the cap because of the long term contracts we've given to our young core players, which is HUGELY different from being up against the cap because we piled up on overpaid veterans.

By giving long term contracts at higher AAV instead of shorter bridge contracts at lower AAV, we're getting young players that are slightly overpaid right now, with the expectation that they'll be underpaid in the later years of their contract when we're expected to be at the peak of our contention window.

We'll have amazing cap flexibility starting in 2025, with many core pieces already locked in place.

 

[Beech]

Kyler is probably dealing with some level of post concussion syndrome and a side dish of CTE from his playing days.

they would have seen 2015-2022 finances.. those reflect covid, anger at Melnyk and exceptionally poor result years.

I will assume that some one would have "spoken" to that. But I suppose that it would come off as used car salesman stunt!!

I believe that this team is awfully close to a mid table revenue team.. I would not be surprised if the 2023/2024 revenue ends up being around 160-165 M. Making the budget at the cap, if Andlauer is okay with funding the loan payments via other sources.

Should Andlauer decide to take the payments out from team revenue, then I can see team specific expenses drop to 140, which is dangerously close to the Melnyk days.

Kyprios may be both right and wrong. In fact, he may be understating. If 165 M and the loan payments are 35 M, we could be at 130 M and that is below Melnyk. It will depend on Andlauer and his willingness to spedn his own money or to add debt.

 

[Ice-Tray]

they would have seen 2015-2022 finances.. those reflect covid, anger at Melnyk and exceptionally poor result years.

I will assume that some one would have "spoken" to that. But I suppose that it would come off as used car salesman stunt!!

I believe that this team is awfully close to a mid table revenue team.. I would not be surprised if the 2023/2024 revenue ends up being around 160-165 M. Making the budget at the cap, if Andlauer is okay with funding the loan payments via other sources.

Should Andlauer decide to take the payments out from team revenue, then I can see team specific expenses drop to 140, which is dangerously close to the Melnyk days.

Kyprios may be both right and wrong. In fact, he may be understating. If 165 M and the loan payments are 35 M, we could be at 130 M and that is below Melnyk. It will depend on Andlauer and his willingness to spedn his own money or to add debt.

No way he entered the game without being prepared to try and build a winner with todays NHL financial picture in Ottawa.

He is very experienced in NHL ownership.

 

[Beech]

No way he entered the game without being prepared to try and build a winner with todays NHL financial picture in Ottawa.

He is very experienced in NHL ownership.

I hope he is experienced in finding 35 M a year. For the next 2-3 years.

then a further 400 M or so to build a building @ 5% interest. So another 30 M or so a year.

and so some 65 M a year for the 20 years after that..

He will need a chunk of cash.. crap 1.3 Billion. Tayler Swift better live here and hold a concert a week.

 

[armani]

Kyler is probably dealing with some level of post concussion syndrome and a side dish of CTE from his playing days.

..and sour grapes!

 

[Senator Stanley]

Zibanejad was traded because Dorion thought Brassard was an upgrade on him, not merely to save money.

It was the 2nd that was thrown into the deal for the Rangers to pay Brassard's bonus, but Dorion thought he was getting a local left-handed two-way top line center and thought trading the younger undeveloped player was a risk worth taking. As we know it turned out to be a horrifically bad decision.

And Stepan's cap hit didn't matter since we had already hit the cap floor. If we had used his cap hit to reach the floor without spending the same amount in real dollars, you'd have a point.

"A risk worth taking" and "turned out to be a horrifically bad decision" seem to apply to a lot of Dorion's big moves. Trading for Brassard, trading for Duchene, trading and signing Murray, and perhaps now trading for DeBrincat. Just a few weeks ago he called trading for Cam Talbot a "calculated risk" that didn't work out.

Obviously with any decision there's downside risk, but I don't know, maybe let's stop letting this guy take our risks for us?

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Zibanejad was traded because Dorion thought Brassard was an upgrade on him, not merely to save money.

It was the 2nd that was thrown into the deal for the Rangers to pay Brassard's bonus, but Dorion thought he was getting a local left-handed two-way top line center and thought trading the younger undeveloped player was a risk worth taking. As we know it turned out to be a horrifically bad decision.

And Stepan's cap hit didn't matter since we had already hit the cap floor. If we had used his cap hit to reach the floor without spending the same amount in real dollars, you'd have a point.

Not only was Brassard supposed to be an upgrade, Dorion's other supposed reason for making the deal was that he wanted a LHC specifically to get the puck to Bobby Ryan on the RW (IIRC). Which was cringe worthy to me. That is not an issue at the NHL level.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Well, he's no Tkachuk so he won't bring back that amazing haul, but I sure hope we get more than one of the tiniest d men in the league that doesn't produce offense.

 

[DJB]

Post was deleted for a few days so moved it to most recent post in thread

 

[Burrowsaurus]

"A risk worth taking" and "turned out to be a horrifically bad decision" seem to apply to a lot of Dorion's big moves. Trading for Brassard, trading for Duchene, trading and signing Murray, and perhaps now trading for DeBrincat. Just a few weeks ago he called trading for Cam Talbot a "calculated risk" that didn't work out.

Obviously with any decision there's downside risk, but I don't know, maybe let's stop letting this guy take our risks for us?

What’s exactly did he calculate with Talbot lol

 

[Golden_Jet]

I hope he is experienced in finding 35 M a year. For the next 2-3 years.

then a further 400 M or so to build a building @ 5% interest. So another 30 M or so a year.

and so some 65 M a year for the 20 years after that..

He will need a chunk of cash.. crap 1.3 Billion. Tayler Swift better live here and hold a concert a week.

Building likely 800+ million CDN minimum, 600+ US, so loan will be larger

 

[Beech]

Building likely 800+ million CDN minimum, 600+ US, so loan will be larger

I am assuming that the Feds, Province and city pitch in what I believe will be a combined 400 M (CDN), so 300 USD. Building at 900 M CDN (cost over-runs are as sure as winter in January).. so 900 M CDN, less 400 M CDN,, leaves 500 M CDN or 400 USD.

picking up the tab at the full 800-900 M CDN is impossible.. that will be almost 55 M a year to pay off. Now consider expenses. it will mean almost 110 M a year in real-estate revenue. or ~ 95 M USD

the team needs 170 M (as of 2028) plus 95 M... 265 M yearly revenue!!!! The poor Euge was generating 160 or so.. team and building.

265 M from 160 M.. roughly a 60% increase.

Andlauer cannot be A smart businessman.. he better be THE smart businessman.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I am assuming that the Feds, Province and city pitch in what I believe will be a combined 400 M (CDN), so 300 USD. Building at 900 M CDN (cost over-runs are as sure as winter in January).. so 900 M CDN, less 400 M CDN,, leaves 500 M CDN or 400 USD.

picking up the tab at the full 800-900 M CDN is impossible.. that will be almost 55 M a year to pay off. Now consider expenses. it will mean almost 110 M a year in real-estate revenue. or ~ 95 M USD

the team needs 170 M (as of 2028) plus 95 M... 265 M yearly revenue!!!! The poor Euge was generating 160 or so.. team and building.

265 M from 160 M.. roughly a 60% increase.

Andlauer cannot be A smart businessman.. he better be THE smart businessman.

Ya a new building will be tough without help, definitely in agreement there.

 

[bert]

It's painfully obvious that we're up against the cap because of the long term contracts we've given to our young core players, which is HUGELY different from being up against the cap because we piled up on overpaid veterans.

By giving long term contracts at higher AAV instead of shorter bridge contracts at lower AAV, we're getting young players that are slightly overpaid right now, with the expectation that they'll be underpaid in the later years of their contract when we're expected to be at the peak of our contention window.

We'll have amazing cap flexibility starting in 2025, with many core pieces already locked in place.

It's painfully obvious the sens are up against the cap because they are paying 3 players to play that aren't even in the league or on the team.

Andlauer meeting with Alfie... As Mike Commodore always says... 'Pack your shit' Dorion.

 

[bert]

A better question might be what are they going to do if he is let go? What's the next target of the vitriol? It's going to get targeted at something else, just an issue of what.

Masking this as looking for someone to blame vs someone who has failed at their job is as strawman as it gets. Laundry list of bad trades to reference. Laundry list of idiotic quotes. Laundry list of failed results. Clearly working under Melnyk isn't easy but he did not do himself any favors. Melnyk was not around for the Debrincat trade which is extremely similar to the Duchene deal.

It's OK to want better... We deserve it as a fanbase for sticking by this organization. It's OK to expect competence and leadership.

 

[bert]

The Debrincat trade will be one that Dorion made that didn't have the Melnyk factor connected to it. So, its a clean trade in that sense and could be used to assess Dorion.

There's still some shoes left to drop, but let's see how that works out ultimately in the end. It should be interesting one way or another.

Debrincat and Talbot deals are mitigated disasters. Neither had Melnyk around for those decisions. The are so similar to the many disastrous deals he made under Melnyk that it's hard to give him a free pass as it looks like a pattern and it's consistent with his previous decisions.

 

[JD1]

Masking this as looking for someone to blame vs someone who has failed at their job is as strawman as it gets. Laundry list of bad trades to reference. Laundry list of idiotic quotes. Laundry list of failed results. Clearly working under Melnyk isn't easy but he did not do himself any favors. Melnyk was not around for the Debrincat trade which is extremely similar to the Duchene deal.

It's OK to want better... We deserve it as a fanbase for sticking by this organization. It's OK to expect competence and leadership.

The firehose will get pointed in some direction.

I don't have any issue with the DeBrincat trade. I liked it when it happened and I still like it.

As i said the other day...we're not a UFA destination and we're never going to be. We've got some Americans signed long term. Clearly he was hoping to be able to sign another one. He took a shot. Landed a big, young fish.

We're going to get a return on DeBrincat and we might very well lose a little on the return

You live in this market. You've mentioned several times in the past year that attendance was way up. What happened last summer generated huge excitement and made the team relevant again. Most of the chatter in my groups of friends was Sens related. Hasn't been like that in years.

Acquiring DeBrincat created excitement and made the team relevant again. Hopefully under new ownership that excitement continues to build

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Masking this as looking for someone to blame vs someone who has failed at their job is as strawman as it gets. Laundry list of bad trades to reference. Laundry list of idiotic quotes. Laundry list of failed results. Clearly working under Melnyk isn't easy but he did not do himself any favors. Melnyk was not around for the Debrincat trade which is extremely similar to the Duchene deal.

It's OK to want better... We deserve it as a fanbase for sticking by this organization. It's OK to expect competence and leadership.

Expectations are too high for a small market team.

Secondly, sticking by the organization doesn’t include boycotts.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

So happy we are going to have a team with Alfredsson in a leadership structure instead of Dorion.

What a complete 180.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

I'd argue he won't be remembered as much as laughed about.


We are still here and we've sucked for a while.

I watch because I care about the team and enjoy watching hockey. I don't need to believe they'll win a Cup to be happy, I just need them to be competitive more often than not.

It is achievable. People who think being a fan is wasted if the team never wins a championship are insane.

I couldn't agree more. WIth over 30 teams in the league, many fanbases are going to go lifetimes without winning a championship. Just gotta enjoy the ride as much as you possibly can.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Fire this moron tonight. Hatty for stone. The leader we need and had and gave away.

How do you sign a player that was absolutely never going to sign long term in Ottawa (at the time)?

when PD could not grab Stone’s had ans force him to sign a contract extension…. What was his alternative?

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

You're pumping success because the team moved from 7th to 12 in the 6th year of it's rebuild in a system where all you have to do is suck to get talent. Nothing more to say about that.

Anyway since everyone here is an idiot and you and the rest of league are rational and can see the radiance of Dorions intellect I'm sure teams will be tripping over for Dorion.

Let's make a 1000 dollar bet on wether or not Dorion will become GM again in the next 5 years.

Should be easy money for you right?

You ever get a response to this? I'm guessing not.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

We do not have our own pick in the first 3 rounds of the draft. We have not made the playoffs. We might be unable to re-sign one of our top 6 forwards on our NOT-A-PLAYOFF-TEAM.

But sure. Dorion was good at scouting. Why is he a GM again? To not draft players? That seems to be what you're suggesting.

Dorion is successful at drafting and so to lead this team into the future he traded all our draft picks and failed to make the playoffs. With managing like that we might as well fold the franchise.

Dorion traded ALL the draft picks? So Ottawa has not drafted any prospects in the last 6 years?

Wow! A Shocker, the Ottawa Senators embarked on a 5 year complete tear down and rebuild, and did NOT make the playoffs??? I was expecting both a complete blow up rebuild and making the plays each and every season…… that’s how down to the studs rebuilds work, right?


So if PD traded away ALL the draft picks, how did the Senators acquire Brady, Timmy, Pinto, Batherson and all the other young guys? And which players were traded to get all those young core players? It’s perplexing?

I also want to ask this:

How many teams have successfully done a full scorched earth rebuild in 6 years or less? How many of these teams did it without a single one of the team's draft picks winning the lottery (top 3)?

to be fair, the Senators won one of the three (draft) lotteries in 2020 and retained the third pick overall.

 

[bert]

Expectations are too high for a small market team.

Secondly, sticking by the organization doesn’t include boycotts.

Expectations are too high for a small market team? What to compete? What a load of crap. To not make horrible trades and terrible player evaluations. My goodness how much was melnyk paying you?