Prospect Info: General Discussion of Prospects
- Thread starter sabremike
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This Latvian kid lighting up the Slovaks for Latvia's third goal is FIFTEEN. Holy crap do I feel old.
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www.eliteprospects.com
Olivers Murnieks - Stats, Contract, Salary & More
Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Olivers Murnieks, 2008-07-31 Riga, LAT Latvia. Most recently in the USHL with Sioux City Musketeers. Complete player biography and stats.
www.eliteprospects.com
Gabrielor
Registered User
His logic in that ranking is weird.
Levi had a 'disappointing' season?
The Sabres 'lack prospect depth'?
Hard disagree on both. Hard disagree.
I also disagree that Benson is still a prospect (I go by the old school hockey's future rules. 65 NHL games for a skater = graduated.)
Rousek is graduating due to aging out. 3 guys I don't expect them to sign have their rights expiring.
No rankings to the above, just tiering. Few organizations are as strong in the A tier as us. A-/B- has plenty of depth. C+/C has a few longshots with potential still too. We're about to add 8 more picks (if no trades) too.
15th ranked prospect pool is flat out wrong. We have depth. We have high end. We have multiple position options. You'd be hard pressed to find much better.
Levi had a 'disappointing' season?
The Sabres 'lack prospect depth'?
Hard disagree on both. Hard disagree.
I also disagree that Benson is still a prospect (I go by the old school hockey's future rules. 65 NHL games for a skater = graduated.)
Rousek is graduating due to aging out. 3 guys I don't expect them to sign have their rights expiring.
No rankings to the above, just tiering. Few organizations are as strong in the A tier as us. A-/B- has plenty of depth. C+/C has a few longshots with potential still too. We're about to add 8 more picks (if no trades) too.
15th ranked prospect pool is flat out wrong. We have depth. We have high end. We have multiple position options. You'd be hard pressed to find much better.
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For a data guy, he's kinda terrible. I still remember him finding out that EP who he was scraping for data double dipped on NTDP games in the USHL.
sabremike
Kemonito superfan
Was this guy huffing paint thinner when he put this together or is he really that dumb?
I’ve never understood his comparables. I appreciate that. He’s trying hard to come up with a purely data driven model, but it really needs some work. Savoie’s 19-year-old season is the best points per game in like the last 15 years in the WHL and he doesn’t get a lot of play in his model. I suppose I put a lot more stock in primary point production, especially even strength or five on five in the AHL, then he does or else he’d be coming out of his socks about Neuchev.
sabremike
Kemonito superfan
The problem is that relying on just data can't work because it's a sport and not a math problem.
Ace
Registered User
- Oct 29, 2015
- 26,328
- 33,104
He said in the replies that Rosen grades out so poorly in his model that it drops them hard.
Think about that statement. Take it all in…every part of it.
And move on with your life never giving him the time of day again
Think about that statement. Take it all in…every part of it.
And move on with your life never giving him the time of day again
It's just points, the progression of points year over year, the league they're playing in, and their age. 19.2 yr old with same stats as a 19.8 yr old will grade higher. The progression is compared to other players with similar progression and how those prospects turned out in the past. If Rosen's progression looks like 30 other players that turned out to be bottom 6'ers, that's where his answers come from.
I don't think he believes everything is explained by the numbers, but that's what the past has shown.
I don't think he believes everything is explained by the numbers, but that's what the past has shown.
GOALOFSSON
Game Changer
I'm 90% sure it's PNHLe. By that system nothing about his ranks are all that provocative.
Quinn - 68
Savoie - 70
Kulich - 67
Ostlund - 56
Rosen - 49
Those make up the top 5. They have some modeling which predicts if a player will be a Regular or "Star". Sabres do a little better on top 5 stars vs regulars. Probably because Savoie has boom or bust characteristics according to models.
Notable depth players would be:
Komarov - 48
Benson - 47
Wahlberg - 33
Neuchev - 37
I don't think these models do a good job of predicting teenagers who are already playing in the NHL but aren't future MVP candidates. So Benson looks a lot worse than he would have otherwise. If he stuck in the WHL and had a ~90 PNHLe season they're right around the top 5.
My issue is with him running down Rosen's value for some reason. I've seen plenty of NHLe calculators out there and yet there is not a lot of explanation why his calculation drops Rosen to the point he mentions it being poor. As calculations go, the values do tend to drop as players move up in league, that's not an issue, but in at least the public versions I have found the value between Rosen's season and Kulich's season is a single point different.
I'm not all that concerned - it just is yet another question I have on that particular source.
The ones I quoted have a more substantial delta, and that's because Rosen is 13 months older.
I think star% takes size and position into account too.
Matt Ress
Don't sleep on me
Not arguing with you but are there 14 teams with better 3rd or 4th forward prospects?
