General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning
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RonM11
Registered User
Well, shit. The county's infection rate is beginning to spike again. Has to be the BA.2 Omicron subvariant.
The only good news about this (so far) is that the infection rate is still below 1. Anything above that and cases will spike as well. So far, we have had just a modest increase of 5.8 last week to 7.6 per 100,000 today.
The only good news about this (so far) is that the infection rate is still below 1. Anything above that and cases will spike as well. So far, we have had just a modest increase of 5.8 last week to 7.6 per 100,000 today.
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
A lot of mask mandates ended recently, that's having an effect too.
Papa Mocha 15
I love the smell of ice in the morning.
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Long COVID Mini-Series: Kids
 | Katelyn Jetelina
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Long COVID among kids is one of the pandemic’s biggest mysteries—and one that causes a lot of worry for parents. This is a deep dive into what we know (and do not know) right now.
Burden
Grasping the burden of long COVID among kids has been incredibly challenging. This is, in part, for the same reasons it’s been difficult to grasp in adults (inconsistent definitions and/or lack of comparison groups in studies). But kids add other layers of complexity:- Inability to verbalize: Children, especially infants and toddlers, can’t always verbalize what they are feeling. Because we don’t have a diagnostic test, like a blood test, for long COVID, we are highly dependent on self-reporting and/or parents picking up on symptoms/different behaviors.
- Inconsistent manifestation of symptoms. Symptoms can manifest differently in young children. For example, fatigue can appear as hyperactivity for some children, while other children will show sluggishness. This inconsistency makes it difficult for parents to detect the problem in the first place.
- Small sample size. In the beginning of the pandemic, infections among children were far less common. Fewer infections meant fewer opportunities to evaluate long COVID. This is changing rapidly.
Five of those seven studies found an incidence of long COVID ranging from 1-14% (here, here, here, here, here) and two studies reported an incidence of 0%—no difference in symptoms among children with an infection compared to children without a infection (here, here). All of these studies were among unvaccinated children. We hypothesize that vaccinations will reduce the risk of long COVID among kids, like we are seeing with adults.
The U.K. officially reports 1.0% of 5-11 year olds and 2.7% of 11-17 year olds are experiencing symptoms for at least 12 weeks. (It’s important to note that U.K. estimates are among all children, not just those who were infected).
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Symptoms
The symptom profile of long COVID is subtly different among children compared to adults. This is because disease tends to develop differently in children. While adults have many more respiratory problems, children tend to have more acute digestive problems. A very recent study found children with severe long COVID tended to have a leaky gut biomarker in their blood. This is a digestive condition which allows gut microorganisms to seep into the bloodstream, which would result in different symptomology than what adults experience.Nonetheless, symptoms can still vastly range. A recent meta-analysis found fatigue was most commonly reported 12 weeks after infection among children, followed by headaches, abdominal pain, muscle pain, and concentration issues.
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Dr. Ian Ferguson, a clinician who treats kids at the Yale long COVID clinic, characterized symptoms nicely:
Interestingly, severity of symptoms seems to be strikingly different by gender and age of children. A recent study found that while male adolescents and young children didn’t report long COVID 12-months after infection, 54% of adolescent girls (aged 14-18) reported long COVID. Of which, 1/3 were classified as moderate or severe. The most severe symptom was fatigue followed by reduced physical activity and breathlessness, as displayed in the figure below.
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The U.K. found a slightly different signal in their latest official report on long COVID. Primary-aged children with long COVID had a higher risk of mental disorders compared to children without long COVID. They found no relationship between long COVID and mental disorders among secondary-aged school children.
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Unfortunately, among children who do have long COVID, symptoms can be debilitating. One study found those with long COVID reported 16 or more sick days compared to children without long COVID (18.2% compared to 11.6%) and 16 or more days of school absence (10.5% vs 8.2%).
How long do symptoms last?
Thankfully, the majority of symptoms are short lived. Within the first 28 days, symptoms significantly recede over time (see figure below). By day 56, 98.2% of children recovered from all symptoms. |
A group in Norway used a nationwide database to assess the impact of COVID19 on long-term healthcare usage among 700,000 children and adolescents. This is an innovative approach because it doesn’t rely on self-report. They found that healthcare usage increased within the first 4 weeks after a COVID19 infection. However, after 12 weeks, healthcare usage (primary care and specialty care) was not increased for 6-19 year olds. There was a slight increase (13%) in primary care usage for 1-5 years from 13 to ~24 weeks after infection compared with participants of the same age who tested negative. This suggested preschool-aged children may take longer to recover.
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Long COVID among family members
One of the more interesting scientific findings is about the impact of family on long COVID. German scientists studied 341 households each with at least one confirmed infection between May-August 2020 (call this Time 1). The scientific team then contacted the households 11-12 months later (call this Time 2) to assess long COVID. What did they find?- Among households in which the parents reported severe symptoms during infection (Time 1), the children were more likely to report long COVID 12 months later (Time 2).
- The number of moderate/severe long COVID symptoms experienced by one person in the household was related to the number of long COVID symptoms experienced by other people in the household (see figure below).
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As the authors point out, this relationship could be due to a number of things. For example, shared genetics could pre-dispose parents and children to severe disease and long COVID. It could also be due to behavior. For example, parents who experience severe disease may be more aware of pediatric symptoms related to COVID. Parental behavior, like stress, has also been shown to significantly influence child symptoms in a range of other health conditions.
Impact on chronic conditions
Long COVID studies have largely focused on symptoms, like headache and fatigue, that may signal underlying damage from the virus. But it’s important to recognize the potential impact a virus has on chronic conditions beyond 12 months.Since the 1950s, viruses have been directly linked to a number of chronic conditions. It’s known, for example, that infant RSV infection increases the chances of asthma by 30-40% in the first decade of life. Among severe influenza infections, about 4% of children have neurological problems, like seizures. Enteroviruses, like rotavirus and mumps, have also been shown to trigger type I diabetes among children. Chronic fatigue syndrome can be caused by viral infection and autoimmune dysregulation and is present in 0.65% of children.
So, to epidemiologists, it wasn’t too surprising to see a January 2022 MMWR publication that linked SARS-CoV-2 infection to new diagnoses of diabetes among children in the U.S. While there were a number of limitations to this study, the biological plausibility is certainly there. We need to continue to investigate these signals. And who knows? Maybe investigation into SARS-CoV-2 can also provide answers about other post-viral syndromes in children.
Bottom line
Thankfully long COVID among children is very rare. But a very small number can become big when a virus burns through entire populations. We need more rigorous studies (with comparison groups and attempts to remove potential biases), so we can pinpoint true incidence, understand biological pathways, and comprehend the long-term implications for children, like treatment options. Right now, we have a lot of questions with very few consistent answers.Love, YLE
“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, biostatistician, professor, researcher, wife, and mom of two little girls. During the day she has a research lab and teaches graduate-level courses, but at night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members.
RonM11
Registered User
Thanks for the detailed read, Papa. There is a growing cadre of experts that are realizing that the phenomena of LONG-COVID is going to be a drain on the healthcare system for years to come. There is no doubt in my mind that LONG-COVID will most definitely greatly increase our health premiums from year to year as well, and for those of us who have not been paying close enough attention will start bitching about it.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Holy crap what a great read
We need to learn more about it too as I'm a little concerned I've got the long version myself, but no one seems to know what to do about it, just regular tips to manage severe headaches/fatigue etc
We need to learn more about it too as I'm a little concerned I've got the long version myself, but no one seems to know what to do about it, just regular tips to manage severe headaches/fatigue etc
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Rumpelstiltskin
Serial Ruminator
I was curious about this, too, and then heard something about this a few weeks ago on the news:
UCI Report on Antihistamines Potentially Helping Alleviate Long-COVID Symptoms <?>
(Here's the case report itself)
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
RonM11
Registered User
THE BUTCHER'S BILL
Time to account for the massacre Omicron has wrought upon our nation.
See the graph below. Deaths are delineated at the low point for each wave (which begins the next wave). For Delta, the rate of death in the country was at the lowest point since the beginning of the pandemic on July 10, 2021. From that point until December 1, 2021, the country registered 173,008 deaths.
December 1 was the low point of death since the Delta peak (although still very high), and then we had a sharp upward tick on that date. From December 1 to December 31, 2021, a particularly gruesome month, we totalled 45,396 in deaths. It is very likely that the last couple of weeks of this month were mostly deaths from the new variant at the time, Omicron, but also quite likely that deaths from the Delta variant was significant too, not to mention that for the first part of the month, the majority of deaths for the pandemic has to be attributable to Delta.
I am using December 31 as a very conservative figure for the beginning of Omicron-related death. Just purely from the graph, we can reasonably assume that deaths purely from the Omicron variant started in earnest about two weeks earlier. But for the sake of argument, we will use January 1, 2022 as the beginning wave of death purely from Omicron.
That total to date is 155,088.
Clearly, the Omicron variant was never "mild." That was a false narrative from the very beginning of the wave, and the media never let go of the misleading narrative...because the media is lazy. It is so much easier to "rip and read" a press release. Just a little bit of effort in viewing graphs such as the one below would inform even the dullest analyst that using a misleading term such as "mild" does a disservice to your viewing audience.
Obviously, a better term to use would have been "less virulent." At a much lower number of infections, Delta caused a lot more death, in relative terms. We had a five-fold level increase of infection from Omicron, so it was obvious to even the casual observer that even though the rate of death was much lower that there would be extensive suffering due to this variant.
The rate of death from Omicron is much lower than the rate of death from Delta. But 155,088 people, just in the United States, is a hell of a lot of death, and swamps the worst of flu seasons (excluding 1918, of course) three-fold.
Time to account for the massacre Omicron has wrought upon our nation.
See the graph below. Deaths are delineated at the low point for each wave (which begins the next wave). For Delta, the rate of death in the country was at the lowest point since the beginning of the pandemic on July 10, 2021. From that point until December 1, 2021, the country registered 173,008 deaths.
December 1 was the low point of death since the Delta peak (although still very high), and then we had a sharp upward tick on that date. From December 1 to December 31, 2021, a particularly gruesome month, we totalled 45,396 in deaths. It is very likely that the last couple of weeks of this month were mostly deaths from the new variant at the time, Omicron, but also quite likely that deaths from the Delta variant was significant too, not to mention that for the first part of the month, the majority of deaths for the pandemic has to be attributable to Delta.
I am using December 31 as a very conservative figure for the beginning of Omicron-related death. Just purely from the graph, we can reasonably assume that deaths purely from the Omicron variant started in earnest about two weeks earlier. But for the sake of argument, we will use January 1, 2022 as the beginning wave of death purely from Omicron.
That total to date is 155,088.
Clearly, the Omicron variant was never "mild." That was a false narrative from the very beginning of the wave, and the media never let go of the misleading narrative...because the media is lazy. It is so much easier to "rip and read" a press release. Just a little bit of effort in viewing graphs such as the one below would inform even the dullest analyst that using a misleading term such as "mild" does a disservice to your viewing audience.
Obviously, a better term to use would have been "less virulent." At a much lower number of infections, Delta caused a lot more death, in relative terms. We had a five-fold level increase of infection from Omicron, so it was obvious to even the casual observer that even though the rate of death was much lower that there would be extensive suffering due to this variant.
The rate of death from Omicron is much lower than the rate of death from Delta. But 155,088 people, just in the United States, is a hell of a lot of death, and swamps the worst of flu seasons (excluding 1918, of course) three-fold.
RonM11
Registered User
So, what's next for the pandemic?
Look at this article from Forbes (link below). There are several new Omicron sub-variants on the horizon (BA.2, BA.2.H78Y, BA.3).
Omicron BA.2 is already the dominant variant in the United States. The curve (below) has finally bottomed out after weeks of steep descent. Does it mean that we will soon see a rise in cases? The experts don't know; no one knows. History tells us we will probably see a surge, but it may be a relatively small surge as compared to Delta or Omicron BA.1. In any event, BA.2 has taken a long time to become dominant in the United States, and just because it's dominant doesn't mean it's going to result in any real significant surge.
We will just have to wait and see what happens.
www.forbes.com
Look at this article from Forbes (link below). There are several new Omicron sub-variants on the horizon (BA.2, BA.2.H78Y, BA.3).
Omicron BA.2 is already the dominant variant in the United States. The curve (below) has finally bottomed out after weeks of steep descent. Does it mean that we will soon see a rise in cases? The experts don't know; no one knows. History tells us we will probably see a surge, but it may be a relatively small surge as compared to Delta or Omicron BA.1. In any event, BA.2 has taken a long time to become dominant in the United States, and just because it's dominant doesn't mean it's going to result in any real significant surge.
We will just have to wait and see what happens.
Whither the Omicron Family: BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.2, BA.2.H78Y, BA.3?
Omicron has stormed onto the scene, quickly becoming one of the most dominant global variants. But, more questions remain than are answered; what should we expect from omicron moving forward?
www.forbes.com
Delta was the dominant variant (majority) in new cases until the second half of December when the 7day average for new cases was about 130k.
Delta peak had ~2,100 deaths/160k cases. Peak deaths lagged peak cases by over 3 weeks. Omicron peak ~2,600 deaths/800k cases. If Omicron was as deadly as delta, peak deaths should have been over 10k. The Omicron peak deaths was 6 weeks after Omicron becoming the majority of covid cases and 2 weeks after peak cases. Deaths can lag by more than a month behind cases. There were still new delta cases in January so some of these deaths were delta. Omicron was clearly mild in comparison to delta.
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Still looking good. and I have say the numbers are looking Christie Brinkley Good
MBH
Players Play
We've been without masks in restaurants and grocery stores for a year in Michigan.
No masks in schools in most counties since the start of the school year.
In my county, the most liberal county, we've been without masks in schools (not the university, crazily enough) since early March.
We've managed to avoid the spring season this year.
Omicron really seems to have wiped out COVID as a health concern. It was so ubiquitous - everyone got it and it experienced it for themselves and said "f*** this. it's over.
Barring some major development in severity, COVID-19 is over in these parts.
Across the river in Canada, my obese uncle and aunt, in their 70s, both got COVID. My aunt had recently had a severe heart attack. Prime candidates to by smited by COVID.
They were both vaxxed to the max.
And they both reported light flu symptoms.
No masks in schools in most counties since the start of the school year.
In my county, the most liberal county, we've been without masks in schools (not the university, crazily enough) since early March.
We've managed to avoid the spring season this year.
Omicron really seems to have wiped out COVID as a health concern. It was so ubiquitous - everyone got it and it experienced it for themselves and said "f*** this. it's over.
Barring some major development in severity, COVID-19 is over in these parts.
Across the river in Canada, my obese uncle and aunt, in their 70s, both got COVID. My aunt had recently had a severe heart attack. Prime candidates to by smited by COVID.
They were both vaxxed to the max.
And they both reported light flu symptoms.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,582
- 11,766
Glad to hear your aunt and uncle have recovered. People have said, f it, it's over, and rightfully so.
Take that Fauci roller skating without a mask. Gloria says she should have made you leave your key.
BTW, anyone see the mass suicides taking place in Shanghai as people who are literally being starved to death with a covid lockdown, have instead decided to jump to their deaths from high-rise windows?
Yup, more government control over our lives, that's the answer.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,582
- 11,766
Here is a news story on what is going on in Shanghai these days. The question is why am I watching this on WION, and not CNN, MSNBC, CBS, ABC (especially you Disney-owned ABC), and NBC?
Be advised this stuff is very disturbing to watch, so if you can't handle it, don't click on the video or the links.
Here's a Twitter link if you want some truth regarding a government using covid to exercise their power.
Be advised this stuff is very disturbing to watch, so if you can't handle it, don't click on the video or the links.
Here's a Twitter link if you want some truth regarding a government using covid to exercise their power.
MBH
Players Play
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
- Apr 6, 2006
- 32,582
- 11,766
I dunno for me, it's not politics, but more of a personal responsibility and rights thing. Self determination is for everyone, not a chosen few.
MBH
Players Play
Right.
RIghts seem natural. Until they aren't.
Politics matter.
If you think you can read the data better than I can and make the choice to lock me out of my business, I'm probably not going to support you.
I don't care if we agree on 90 percent of other things - this is fundamental to me now.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Funny enough--I hadn't even thought about my allergy meds handling anything but my allergies, but I haven't had a headache in about a month, and the usual accompanying fatigue is much, much milder. So this kind of checks out anecdotally at least.
What's basically an exercise-induced asthma is still in full force though and I'll see what happens in the summer months when I can get off the allergy stuff
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