General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

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United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Daily Deaths (7-day moving average) Jan 12, 2021: 3,545

Daily Deaths (7-day moving average) Jan 11, 2022: 1,674

Sheer numbers.
I'm sure at some point you knew you were going to pay the price for this out-of-context post. You may have thought it was clever because it was exactly a year apart, but viruses tend not to honor statistical niceties. The true butcher's bill is coming now, four to six weeks after the peak on January 14. The death rate, which averaged almost 3,000 per day in the US over the past week, is a truer indicator today rather than your premature post around the same time as we were peaking with Omicron.

And we were just beginning vaccination protocols in mid-January 2021.
 
I'm sure at some point you knew you were going to pay the price for this out-of-context post. You may have thought it was clever because it was exactly a year apart, but viruses tend not to honor statistical niceties. The true butcher's bill is coming now, four to six weeks after the peak on January 14. The death rate, which averaged almost 3,000 per day in the US over the past week, is a truer indicator today rather than your premature post around the same time as we were peaking with Omicron.

And we were just beginning vaccination protocols in mid-January 2021.
Get out of here with your garbage Ron. The death rate has not increased, it has decreased. The Omicron variant is far less deadly than the original or any of the variants.

Yes, the deaths per day topped out at 3,674 on Jan 26, 2022. This is back when the U.S. spike in cases was 800,000 - 900,000 per day. The death rate with this many cases is therefore much less.

Case rates are dropping. The Omicron wave has come and gone and now millions more have natural immunity.

You continue to misrepresent the information provided by the data. That's a death rate of around 0.4% if you become infected. If you are at risk and want to continue to mask up whenever you go out, or if you want to do your own self-imposed lock down, feel free to do so.

The rest of us are going to live our lives and not live in fear of a virus that has less than a 1% chance of death.
 
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Get out of here with your garbage Ron. The death rate has not increased, it has decreased. The Omicron variant is far less deadly than the original or any of the variants.

Yes, the deaths per day topped out at 3,674 on Jan 26, 2022. This is back when the U.S. spike in cases was 800,000 - 900,000 per day. The death rate

Case rates are dropping. The Omicron wave has come and gone and now millions more have natural immunity.

You continue to misrepresent the information provided by the data. That's a death rate of around 0.4% if you become infected. If you are at risk and want to continue to mask up whenever you go out, or if you want to do your own self-imposed lock down, feel free to do so.

The rest of us are going to live our lives and not live in fear of a virus that has less than a 1% chance of death.

Looks like I touched a nerve.

Facts are facts, 17. I never claimed the death rate increased or was going to increase. You are mischaracterizing my arguments, as usual. The argument always was and is that the even with a less deadly variant that the sheer numbers of infections were going keep THE NUMBER of hospitalizations and death high (not relatively high).

Lastly, I'm not in a self-imposed lockdown or living in fear. That's a couple of times you said that, and it's simply not true. You know what they say about making assumptions, 17. I think you also made a point about masks that's not true as well. You are making arguments that are suspiciously like the ones I heard almost two years ago from all the clowns that equated mask use with a violation of their rights to be free. Totally idiotic, to be sure, but there it is.
 
Looks like I touched a nerve.

Facts are facts, 17. I never claimed the death rate increased or was going to increase. You are mischaracterizing my arguments, as usual. The argument always was and is that the even with a less deadly variant that the sheer numbers of infections were going keep THE NUMBER of hospitalizations and death high (not relatively high).

Lastly, I'm not in a self-imposed lockdown or living in fear. That's a couple of times you said that, and it's simply not true. You know what they say about making assumptions, 17. I think you also made a point about masks that's not true as well. You are making arguments that are suspiciously like the ones I heard almost two years ago from all the clowns that equated mask use with a violation of their rights to be free. Totally idiotic, to be sure, but there it is.
You haven't touched anything Ron. You have been fear mongering on this topic for months.
 
From Your Local Epidemiologist on CDC Mask Guidance Katelyn Jetalina. She is also a biostatician and researcher.


The following is a critique of the most recent mask guidance. Some things below, I had not considered before but I thought this was very fair.



My two cents


As many of you know, I’ve been one of CDC’s biggest critics throughout this pandemic. But… I’m pleasantly surprised with this framework for a few reasons:
Praises

  1. Cases included. The CDC ended up integrating case metrics into their framework and this was 100% the correct call. Before today, rumors suggested that the CDC was only going to use hospitalizations to map behaviors. But this is inherently flawed because once hospitalizations increase, transmission in the community has already been high for about 3-4 weeks. So, I’m glad they decided not to do this.
  2. Hospitalization definition. The CDC is counting hospitalizations “with COVIDandfor COVID19” in their hospital metrics. This is also, absolutely, the right call. First, some jurisdictions just don’t have the capacity to differentiate the two. But, second, because Omicron showed us that there’s actually a third category that isn’t clearly differentiated: “COVID19 exacerbating medical conditions.” For example, if a child has diabetes, COVID19 infection significantly complicates the disease and the child is hospitalized “with COVID” not “for COVID19”. But, this is very different than a child with a broken bone that happens to test positive. So, I’m happy that the CDC is counting everything because everything does impact supply, staff, and hospital capacity.
  3. Layered approach. The CDC did not just map these metrics to masks. They also mapped the metrics to our other tools, like rapid testing (when and how), ventilation of spaces, vaccines, treatment, etc. I was VERY happy to see this. Yes, masks work. But so do all the other tools we have significantly underutilized throughout the pandemic.
  4. Dial up and dial down. Given my proposed framework a few weeks ago, you won’t be surprised to hear how happy I am the CDC provided guidance on how to “ride the waves”. The end of a surge is not the end of a pandemic. We need to be prepared and ready for the next. It may never come. But in the high likelihood that another wave does come, we need clear guidance.
  5. Vaccination rate. This is minor, but I’m glad they didn’t include community-level vaccination rates in their metrics. Vaccinations are already folded into population-level hospitalizations, so they are already accounted for to some degree. Also, I have yet to see any scientific evidence that vaccines reduce Omicron transmission. They did for Delta, but I would want to see this data first before assuming so for Omicron.
  6. Transportation. This guidance is NOT for public transportation, like planes. All of the masking requirements still pertain (at least until mid-March). The CDC said they’re evaluating the situation and will comment in the coming weeks.
Critiques

I wouldn’t be a scientist without critiques. I think these critiques are pretty big, too:
  • Case level definition: It’s not clear to me how they arrived at their new case metric: 200 cases per 100K in the past week. (Before today masks were needed at 50 cases per 100K in the past week). No scientific justification was provided. And I’m shocked the CDC is comfortable with this high level of transmission given long COVID19 implications, given that not everyone has access to the vaccine, and given high excess death to high risk individuals (like we’re seeing in Denmark with high levels of transmission. Vaccines are great but not perfect).
    To demonstrate, this morning the CDC’s old guidance said that 3,074 counties should wear a mask indoors. This afternoon their new guidance says only 1,200 counties need to mask. This is a big difference. And, honestly, I’m a bit uncomfortable with this high level of transmission in the community.
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
  • I also didn’t appreciate a few places where the guidance said, “If you are immunocompromised or high risk for severe disease… talk to your healthcare provider”. So, this framework isn’t public health guidance. This is individual-level guidance and only for certain individuals. The CDC is THE public health leader and really needs to lead that way. As a boosted individual, I know my individual risk is very, very low. But I also understand that other people’s risks are high. I would like guidance on how to adequately contribute to society for these folks’ benefit too (not just until they show up at the hospital).
Because of these two critiques, I will still be wearing my mask at “yellow”. Once we reach green, which should be soon, I’ll celebrate taking it off… at least until we reach yellow again.
Have a great weekend!
Katelyn
“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, biostatistician, professor, researcher, wife, and mom of two little girls. During the day she has a research lab and teaches graduate-level courses, but at night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, please subscribe here:
 
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Just finished another round of shifts. I'm not seeing these patients get out of the ICU. At least with Delta, they died faster as opposed to putting someone through the ringer and then they come back a shell of a person. Families finally allowed at bedside when isolation precautions are discontinued and then they realize they wouldn't have wanted to live that way, so we get them tuned up for the family to say, "oh, we didn't know it was this bad, we should let them go". Leads to hospice vs comfort care or long term outside facility. What bugs me is that we put the patient through so much just to turn around and let them go. Like bringing them back to consciousness and then bam.

There really isn't any amount of pain meds to keep someone free from pain, just sedated. Those are two different things and it's becoming ethically challenging. But this is till going on. This isn't living in fear, just conscious of those around us. This is very real. This is your neighbor, grandparent. These are people.

So my interview with the Pediatric ICU went well and they asked for references. We'll see how it goes.
 
You haven't touched anything Ron. You have been fear mongering on this topic for months.

You ever take debating in school, 17? Because you seem to employing all the known tricks: mischaracterizing your opponent's arguments and then attacking the mischaracterization. "Fear mongering," indeed.

This kind of shit is polluting our everyday politics...that's just one reason why our country is so f***ed up as it is. Why don't you try honesty, 17? Or is that beyond your capabilities?

Why don't you stick to facts?

Look at the graph below. You are a graph guy, right? Clearly, deaths from Omicron, you know, that "mild" variant, the one that you wanted so badly to catch...deaths clearly rise well above deaths from Delta at its highest point, although it remains to be seen if total deaths (that reservoir below the line) will be more than Delta. It's a close call, illustrating one more point that taking any variant of this virus lightly is foolhardy.

Screen Shot 2022-02-27 at 9.51.24 PM.png
 
From Your Local Epidemiologist on CDC Mask Guidance Katelyn Jetalina. She is also a biostatician and researcher.


The following is a critique of the most recent mask guidance. Some things below, I had not considered before but I thought this was very fair.



My two cents


As many of you know, I’ve been one of CDC’s biggest critics throughout this pandemic. But… I’m pleasantly surprised with this framework for a few reasons:
Praises

  1. Cases included. The CDC ended up integrating case metrics into their framework and this was 100% the correct call. Before today, rumors suggested that the CDC was only going to use hospitalizations to map behaviors. But this is inherently flawed because once hospitalizations increase, transmission in the community has already been high for about 3-4 weeks. So, I’m glad they decided not to do this.
  2. Hospitalization definition. The CDC is counting hospitalizations “with COVIDandfor COVID19” in their hospital metrics. This is also, absolutely, the right call. First, some jurisdictions just don’t have the capacity to differentiate the two. But, second, because Omicron showed us that there’s actually a third category that isn’t clearly differentiated: “COVID19 exacerbating medical conditions.” For example, if a child has diabetes, COVID19 infection significantly complicates the disease and the child is hospitalized “with COVID” not “for COVID19”. But, this is very different than a child with a broken bone that happens to test positive. So, I’m happy that the CDC is counting everything because everything does impact supply, staff, and hospital capacity.
  3. Layered approach. The CDC did not just map these metrics to masks. They also mapped the metrics to our other tools, like rapid testing (when and how), ventilation of spaces, vaccines, treatment, etc. I was VERY happy to see this. Yes, masks work. But so do all the other tools we have significantly underutilized throughout the pandemic.
  4. Dial up and dial down. Given my proposed framework a few weeks ago, you won’t be surprised to hear how happy I am the CDC provided guidance on how to “ride the waves”. The end of a surge is not the end of a pandemic. We need to be prepared and ready for the next. It may never come. But in the high likelihood that another wave does come, we need clear guidance.
  5. Vaccination rate. This is minor, but I’m glad they didn’t include community-level vaccination rates in their metrics. Vaccinations are already folded into population-level hospitalizations, so they are already accounted for to some degree. Also, I have yet to see any scientific evidence that vaccines reduce Omicron transmission. They did for Delta, but I would want to see this data first before assuming so for Omicron.
  6. Transportation. This guidance is NOT for public transportation, like planes. All of the masking requirements still pertain (at least until mid-March). The CDC said they’re evaluating the situation and will comment in the coming weeks.
Critiques

I wouldn’t be a scientist without critiques. I think these critiques are pretty big, too:
  • Case level definition: It’s not clear to me how they arrived at their new case metric: 200 cases per 100K in the past week. (Before today masks were needed at 50 cases per 100K in the past week). No scientific justification was provided. And I’m shocked the CDC is comfortable with this high level of transmission given long COVID19 implications, given that not everyone has access to the vaccine, and given high excess death to high risk individuals (like we’re seeing in Denmark with high levels of transmission. Vaccines are great but not perfect).
    To demonstrate, this morning the CDC’s old guidance said that 3,074 counties should wear a mask indoors. This afternoon their new guidance says only 1,200 counties need to mask. This is a big difference. And, honestly, I’m a bit uncomfortable with this high level of transmission in the community.
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
  • I also didn’t appreciate a few places where the guidance said, “If you are immunocompromised or high risk for severe disease… talk to your healthcare provider”. So, this framework isn’t public health guidance. This is individual-level guidance and only for certain individuals. The CDC is THE public health leader and really needs to lead that way. As a boosted individual, I know my individual risk is very, very low. But I also understand that other people’s risks are high. I would like guidance on how to adequately contribute to society for these folks’ benefit too (not just until they show up at the hospital).
Because of these two critiques, I will still be wearing my mask at “yellow”. Once we reach green, which should be soon, I’ll celebrate taking it off… at least until we reach yellow again.
Have a great weekend!
Katelyn
“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, biostatistician, professor, researcher, wife, and mom of two little girls. During the day she has a research lab and teaches graduate-level courses, but at night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, please subscribe here:

I gotta be honest, Papa...the CDC has been such a dumpster fire for the past two years I have been discounting anything coming out of that agency, full stop...especially since Walensky took over. She's even worse than Redfield, which I didn't think was possible.

And this is from someone who remember how heroic the CDC was during the early years of the AIDS epidemic...it really is hard to believe this is the same agency of a generation ago.

Having said that, I'll give your read a go when I'm not so bleary-eyed...tomorrow morning.
 
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Look at these infection rates for California, Los Angeles County, and Orange County...historic lows, by far, from the very start of the pandemic. We can actually be out of this thing in the next few weeks if this trend continues not only in California but nationwide.

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I gotta be honest, Papa...the CDC has been such a dumpster fire for the past two years I have been discounting anything coming out of that agency, full stop...especially since Walensky took over. She's even worse than Redfield, which I didn't think was possible.

And this is from someone who remember how heroic the CDC was during the early years of the AIDS epidemic...it really is hard to believe this is the same agency of a generation ago.

Having said that, I'll give your read a go when I'm not so bleary-eyed...tomorrow morning.
It absolutely has. I would point back to 45s administration on that one though since they held a federal hiring freeze which underemployed the CDC by at least 400 employees and then 45 hid the fact that he was aware it was airborne but didn't release the info, but it came out with B0b Woodard interview. If that piece of info if given to the CDC, would have allowed them to employ higher level precautions in the hospital instead of what we had to deal with. At the beginning of the pandemic, we were encouraged NOT to wear masks in the hospital because it scared patients and the CDC hadn't made their recommendations yet. We were told to take them off because were burning supplies and scaring patients. The infighting between nurses and admin got so bad, nurses were getting ready to strike, the unions stepped in and got universal masking in place under the threat of strike but it was too late for some people. The non union hospitals followed much later and were able to get masks in place. Some of us haven't forgotten or forgiven admin for pushing us on that, but to find out the that 45 knew and held it back costed a lot lives. More nurses have died from this than many wars combined and it was preventable. IF we knew this and the CDC had been properly staffed, masks would have been put in place in the hospitals, we could have focused more on production. While we waited, our N95 supply sat there. No movement happened to excelerate production. Hospitals started to rebel and put machines in the room which actively filtered at Merkel Level IV, higher than HEPA filter, to clean the air to a higher level because we kept seeing that this was pointing in the direction of being airborne although we couldn't prove it. But if we had that info, those filter would have already been in place. It was the 1st time, I saw the hospitals go their own way in precautions and just say F it. In retrospect, it's easy to paint a pic of this and look at CDC as the culprit but the WH overstepped it's line by a mile. The CDC was never supposed to implement public policy, but it does control hospital direction and the precautions they take. All our precautions on infection management come from there. As it relates to hospital policy, we can't write one unless it's within their guidelines on infection management, prevention. The President can then take their advice or blow it off as it relates to public policy, but the hospitals can't. Since 45 chose to try to suppress and redirect their recommendations to not scare anyone, it caused a lot of unnecessary harm The Chinese had already shared that info with us and our administration held it back. and then blamed them anyway. While I agree with a large chunk of their criticism and they have their own issues, it was just deferring blame away from some of the responsbility that should be shared.

In Korea, Vietnam wars, our gov has done a shit job at keeping our troops prepared with boots on the ground. Supply lines, not having good intel because they never check in with boots on the ground. This applies to multiple field of work. There is a good book out there called About Face where a retired Colonel David Hackworth discusses in detail about the negatives of sharing poor intel, not being dialed in to boots on the ground and the happenings around us and the dangers of Yes Men. From the lack of quality people in those positions or training or supplies those in the trenches and on the ground pay the ultimate price. I don't consider it too far off from that because this was an active suppression of info for better polling and so people "don't panic". But that kind of BS weakened our health care system, burned out a lot of ICU nurses or just retired them because they saw the writing on the wall and the ineptitude from leadership. What was left was a lot of new ICU nurses who had to learn on the fly instead of getting all the info from seasoned nurses who knew their shit and could not be taught in books. But if we had the right precautions in place, we could have retained staff, started off much stronger and maybe directed our limited scientific resources to a higher footing and higher level of studies. Instead we choked ourselves by starting from scratch wasting resources on DIY hand sanitizer and cloth masks and how far droplets can go when we sneeze when we already knew the info. We could have directed that research to meds like steroids much sooner but our resources were already trying to understand spread when we knew it all along. It took us a year to find out Decadron, a cheap med, helps stave off and control inflammation because we were still studying spread but we had the info before it even really hit the US and it was sat on and the rest of us on the ground paid for it in tears at losing our staff members to vents, death and disability.

On a personal and anecdotal note, one of my sisters on my unit just was able to walk 100 yards on a beach for the first time since she got sick. She was one of the 1st of us to get sick. She's in her 40s. On heart meds now. That's just one person on my unit. Otherwise healthy. You see a lot of us just throw ourselves into it because it is for our patients. We did a mock code when the higher level precautions went into place and I ran into the room without my PPE and I realized if I don't think clearly, I'm gonna get my ass killed. It changes so much about what we do and how we function and we were so careful we had to train, train again, and train again, rinse repeat. Beause you realize, you have to survive for the next patient. I'm no good dead for the next one so we have to make adjustments and that may mean the patient isn't as safe either. The first time I had one patient, it was like disarming a landmine. You can't see it and someone is coughing all over you. If I get this, my kid and wife will possibly too. I slept in a different room than my wife until May (2 months) until she insisted that we all go through this together if I catch it, keep in mind we didn't know what we were looking at. They didn't ask for this and I didn't sign up to hurt them. But these are things we think about as we drive home. To find out later that 45 sat on that info which would have accelerated the CDCs approach to help us in the field is something I have to let go of, but I can't point it at the CDC. It's a shared responsibility. It was only with those who wore scrubs stood up, that things started to change.
 
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What's a shame is that the US still has no early treatment, when the virus is at its weakest point and replication has just started. If you are not practically dying, hospitals don't want to see you. That uphill battle with a virus at its peak is not an easy fight. Countries like Honduras and South Africa have used antivirals as early treatments and have done very well. Not only do they have inpatient treatments, but also outpatient treatments. I have my own Covid story, along with the rest of my family that include 3 kids and grandma that breezed through it with only 2 kids getting mild fevers and wife getting some body aches (seems like old injuries like to pop back up with this virus) with the help of some early treatment that came via Mexico.

And i hope people dont freak out, but a bunch of the Covid restrictions (which include Mask mandates) are about to go aways soon after the State of the Union. It does not take genius what that is going to be about. While 45 has made mistakes with Covid, 46 is going to side with what Texas and Florida has been doing. Hopefully the elephant and the donkey can be one country again
 
Yeah, BA.2 has had the opportunity to slow the decline in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. for well over a month now and has failed to do so, even though it did that in the UK, Denmark, and South Africa.

I doubt that BA.2 will have much of an impact, if any, in the U.S. See the abrupt decline in infection rates that I posted above. Without new variants to darken our doorstep, the pandemic is ending. Might become endemic...might not even be that.
 
…I doubt that BA.2 will have much of an impact, if any, in the U.S. See the abrupt decline in infection rates that I posted above. Without new variants to darken our doorstep, the pandemic is ending. Might become endemic...might not even be that.
Who are you and what have you done to Ron M? Blink twice if we should call the police.
 
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Officials Keep Eye on New Variant

See attached article. It's about the new variant dubbed "Deltacron" that is more hype than anything else...last I heard, they identified 17 cases nationwide, with 1 being in California somewhere. It's not listed as a VOC (variant of concern) at WHO, and likely won't be...but I'm never going to talk in absolutes with this virus; the surprises throughout the pandemic have been numerous.

The article does discuss Omicron sublineage type BA.2, where (apparently) several experts are saying BA.2 should be treated as its own variant because it is so different from other Omicron sublineages. Not sure if WHO is going to do that, given that BA.2, while increasing slowly, makes up only 5% of LA County cases...it's supposed to be 30% more contagious than BA.1, but it's not taking off. BA.2 is a VOC, so this is something the experts will keep an eye on, but with such slow growth and no indication it's going to take off, I'm thinking it will eventually die off on it's own.

What about the next (major) variant? With so many people still not being vaccinated, we are likely to continue to face surges in the fall and winter for years to come...whether some of these variants make a return, or some other ones emerge. Last year at this time, I figured we'd see a surge for the fall and winter, but I thought it would be the same original wild virus (A); never saw Delta or Omicron coming, and never saw the crazy wild surge of Omicron in December and January.

For those of you interested in this sort of thing, here is a website for a seemingly endless list of lineages discovered to date. The "A" lineages listed at the top are interesting from a historical perspective, but after that it gets kind of hairy.

 

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