Latest news from doctor friend. Deaths down about 30% from yesterday morning. At most facilities admissions up modestly, although down at OC hospital by about 5%. The one thing that stands out is a massive 50% increase in admissions from yesterday at affiliated hospital in Los Angeles. ICU admissions flat everywhere, but of course that's where the deaths are occurring, so flat just means new ICU admissions offset by deaths.
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Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
873 postives is under 1K so that is good and down from 911 yesterday
Hospitalization is down overall yesterday from 722
ICU cases are up to 245 from 238 yesterday <---not good
20% positive test rate , also not good
7 day running total of non snf deaths
Thu: 5
Wed: 21
Tues: 5
Mon: 1
Sun: 2
Sat : 3
Fri: 6
^^ this got much better because a 17 was replaced by a 5, but 6.14 is still way too high
Papa Mocha 15
I love the smell of ice in the morning.
Based on yours and @King17 I reached out to some fellow RNs at other hospitals. An OC hospital has it written in their policy for 3 to 5 seconds. Each nostril is because it is hard to track being small so we want to scrape as much tissue as we can to make sure we get it. My hospital is a teaching hospital so the policy at my hospital may be overzealous.
Papa Mocha 15
I love the smell of ice in the morning.
I wouldn't worry too much about it. I reached out to some RN friends and their policy is 3 to 5 seconds. Another one didn't have a time frame which he is looking into. I'm going to bed now to start 1 of 3 night shifts in a row so I'm offline for a few days. Best of luck. Try not to worry and don't read too much into 15 seconds. Hope I didn't spook you.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
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Nah, no worries, 15 seconds is probably a bit of overkill.
Latest data from doctor friend: status quo. Admissions flat. ICU admissions flat. Same increase in deaths as the day before. Admissions flat at LA affiliated hospital where there was a 50% increase yesterday. Only significant change is a 9% drop in admissions at affiliated hospital in San Bernardino, which has been having the worst numbers recently.
It will be interesting to see what happens today at the Newsom press conference.
A lot of people are going to be pissed, I'm thinking. At best, things are flat right now and sending students back to school without the proper precautions is going to cause an obvious spike. That can't be debated, but there are going to be differing opinions on how big that spike will be. I'm hoping that there isn't an outright decree of distance learning. While erring on the side of caution is fine, I think that local areas should be able to dictate what happens depending on their areas conditions.
The OCDE's recommendations released the other day were very weak and didn't say much. Masks were recommended, but not mandated. If you have a big agency like OCDE making a poor call on recommendations the State government is going to take notice. Regardless of the fact that all the districts under them that have responded don't agree with the OCDE and will require masks, it gets the state thinking that "local agencies don't know what they are doing so we need to step in here."
It doesn't surprise me that this waffling came out of the OCDE. If you've ever been to their campus it's huge with many buildings full of cubicles and offices. There are less than 30 school districts under them, yet from the amount of people there you would think they are running the entire state. Bureaucracy at its apex.
A lot of people are going to be pissed, I'm thinking. At best, things are flat right now and sending students back to school without the proper precautions is going to cause an obvious spike. That can't be debated, but there are going to be differing opinions on how big that spike will be. I'm hoping that there isn't an outright decree of distance learning. While erring on the side of caution is fine, I think that local areas should be able to dictate what happens depending on their areas conditions.
The OCDE's recommendations released the other day were very weak and didn't say much. Masks were recommended, but not mandated. If you have a big agency like OCDE making a poor call on recommendations the State government is going to take notice. Regardless of the fact that all the districts under them that have responded don't agree with the OCDE and will require masks, it gets the state thinking that "local agencies don't know what they are doing so we need to step in here."
It doesn't surprise me that this waffling came out of the OCDE. If you've ever been to their campus it's huge with many buildings full of cubicles and offices. There are less than 30 school districts under them, yet from the amount of people there you would think they are running the entire state. Bureaucracy at its apex.
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From what I've seen so far, I'm liking Newsom's conference. Flexibility based on local conditions with testing and contact tracing support for schools. Haven't seen any bombshells yet, glad the state isn't overreacting here.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
The only beef I have with it is openly resistant/defiant counties who are doing things to spite Newsom, but I guess letting them do their thing moves the spotlight to the local idiots instead of Newsom.
Schrute farms
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We got a new school survey yesterday. Kind of idiotic, bizarre and just plain poorly written in how they did it though. Very little explanation. Basically two options: totally remote/online versus in school. For the totally remote, they then want you to provide student details. I'm guessing maybe they want carve out those that have zero interest sending kids back to school and see what they have left in formulating a CV plan on campus. I can't say i'm surprised though since the school district has continually shown they have no ability to have a plan(s), horrible communication, etc., etc.
Personally, I'd like them to be in school, but I want to understand how it's being done (rotations, temp taking, social distance, etc.). I have zero trust that they know how to come up with a viable plan...let alone enact it properly.
Personally, I'd like them to be in school, but I want to understand how it's being done (rotations, temp taking, social distance, etc.). I have zero trust that they know how to come up with a viable plan...let alone enact it properly.
Aaaaand it turned around quickly. The watch list requirements are a bit much and completely dependent on how capable those counties are with testing. Here in OC, testing has dropped off considerably the last 2 weeks. If that continues, they'll meet the threshold quickly. If they start testing schools when they start up numbers are going to shoot up everywhere.
Just for kicks... OC cases
Going back 14 days (current data runs through 7/15
July 1 - July 15: 27,855 cases - 21,946 cases = 5,909 new cases in the past 2 weeks
July 8 - July 15: 27, 855 cases - 25,968 cases = 1,877 new cases in the past week
July 11 - July 15: 27,855 cases - 27,516 cases = 339 new cases in the last 5 days.
Testing since the beginning of July:
You can see how the data mirrors testing. There was a lot of testing through July 10, then it dropped of dramatically. The total cases per 100K they are going by is never going to tell the picture.
Going back 14 days (current data runs through 7/15
July 1 - July 15: 27,855 cases - 21,946 cases = 5,909 new cases in the past 2 weeks
July 8 - July 15: 27, 855 cases - 25,968 cases = 1,877 new cases in the past week
July 11 - July 15: 27,855 cases - 27,516 cases = 339 new cases in the last 5 days.
Testing since the beginning of July:
You can see how the data mirrors testing. There was a lot of testing through July 10, then it dropped of dramatically. The total cases per 100K they are going by is never going to tell the picture.
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Some good news today
First day without a Non-SNF death in while
Only 405 new cases today, first time under 500 in a while
17.49% positive tests
Hospitalization down to 682 from 711
ICU cases drop by 10
First day without a Non-SNF death in while
Only 405 new cases today, first time under 500 in a while
17.49% positive tests
Hospitalization down to 682 from 711
ICU cases drop by 10
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
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I would rather delay/postpone the start of the school year, or cancel it altogether than pass kids through to the next grade with useless "distance learning".
There have been zero deaths from COVID-19 in California for people under the age of 18. Who exactly is being protected, because it isn't the students.
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
Not CA, but it is starting to go after kids
Wisconsin coronavirus: 900 more COVID-19 cases, six kids with MIS-C
I read this article earlier somewhere and remembered Wisconsin .
I don't know the frequency in either states
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Everyone the students come in contact with--which is a large majority of society.
I'd also rather have the relative consistency of distance education than starting in August on campus, getting to halloween, then having to shut a district down for a few months. That's more jarring and more akin to what happened at the end of last year than planned/schemed distance learning.
I'll admit I'm maybe more sensitive to this because I have kids and there's no f***ing way I'm gambling on them going to school when there's an alternative.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
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Data gathered thus far indicates kids do not transmit the virus at anywhere near the rate adults transmit it. Why are so many willing to ignore these experts?
COVID-19 Transmission and Children: The Child Is Not to Blame
Almost 6 months into the pandemic, accumulating evidence and collective experience argue that children, particularly school-aged children, are far less important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission than adults. Therefore, serious consideration should be paid toward strategies that allow schools to remain open, even during periods of COVID-19 spread. In doing so, we could minimize the potentially profound adverse social, developmental, and health costs that our children will continue to suffer until an effective treatment or vaccine can be developed and distributed or, failing that, until we reach herd immunity.
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KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
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MIS-C has been around for over 50 years. There will never be zero risk.
If the people in charge of our educational system insist on distance learning, I believe we should vote to postpone school until in-person classes are reinstated. The "distance learning" has been a shit show. Why waste our kids' time, and our money on an inferior education for the children?
What Kawasaki Disease can tell us about the coronavirus-linked MIS-C illness in kids, and vice versa
The emerging disorder, dubbed Multisystem Inflammatory Illness in Children, or MIS-C, presents some of the classic signs of a well-known disorder discovered more than half a century ago in Japan. The symptoms of MIS-C (sometimes referred to as PMIS) are so similar to Kawasaki Disease that doctors are debating whether there could be a connection.
Kawasaki Disease (KD) is a rare and seldom fatal non-contagious vascular illness primarily in children of Asian descent. It generally causes symptoms including a high fever, red eyes and rash. It can also trigger heart failure, but that complication is seen in very few Kawasaki sufferers.
While both KD and MIS-C both attack children, KD sufferers are overwhelmingly preschoolers and infants, while MIS-C strikes older children well into their teens.
CBS News senior medical correspondent Dr. Tara Narula notes that many of the treatments long used for KD patients have proven helpful and effective in treating children with MIS-C, including intravenous immunoglobulin (injecting antibodies from healthy blood plasma). Steroids, used for only the most serious KD cases, are also often prescribed for MIS-C.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Do you now want to believe research coming out of China? Because that's the originally referenced material.
Also, this was accepted back on March 18th. You don't think anything has developed since then?
The Swiss studies references happened when schools were closed. They found a child was the index case not quite 10% of the time in that circumstance (plus, implications for the US, that's a pretty big number when you consider all the students around the nation flooding classrooms during the worst flareup).
I'd love to be able to accept that outright--but as always, we have conflicting information:
Coronavirus: Can kids spread COVID-19? Your COVID questions, answered
Lots of kids asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. That's great for general health, but terrible for possible community spread. And that's without schools open--notoriously bad vectors for disease spread and general health. Knowing what we know, it's a bomb just waiting to go off and an unacceptable risk given there IS an alternative to jamming kids and teachers back into their classrooms to spread back to their homes and communities. Schools are basically the center of just about every community. I'm not down to use my kids to test hypotheses.
We need to err on the side of caution and the unknown, not on the side of possibility and convenience.
Edit: Also https://www.nap.edu/read/25858/chapter/1
“There is insufficient evidence with which to determine how easily children and youth contract the virus and how contagious they are once they do,” the report says. This knowledge gap “makes it extremely difficult for decision-makers to gauge the health risks of physically opening schools and to create plans for operating them in ways that reduce transmission of the virus.”
The LA times writeup seems to argue it's progressively safer for younger and younger kids to go back, but that quote from The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine sums up my thoughts. Not enough info.
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Some numbers contradictory to this research today out of Florida (surprise).
Florida coronavirus: 31% of children tested have been positive
"A whopping 31.1% coronavirus positivity rate among those under 18 who are tested for the virus, according to the state's most recent pediatric report"
Yes, kids aren't tested as much and yes, they certainly won't be tested often without showing symptoms, so a higher percentage is expected. But close to 1/3rd is surprising. What's significant is they tested 54K kids under 18 and got just under 17K positives. Given how many asymptomatic carriers there are, there are obviously a lot more than 17K pediatric cases in Florida. Some are getting it from family I'm sure, but kids spread sickness like wildfire among themselves. At least in Florida, they are spreading it and doing a good job of it. And keep in mind they aren't in school right now. That's downright scary.
Note that even though the Pediatrics study was recently published, the data referenced is all 3 months or older. We've learned more about the virus since then, identified strains, and so on. Not to discount their findings, because they certainly are accurate and reflected what we thought at that time. Things just evolve so quickly published papers can't keep up. It's a shame because they have the best data. Look for a journal article in October about the data reported by Florida above.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
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Well, then as I said. Postpone school indefinitely. Why waste our kids' time and our money on something as ineffective as "distance learning"?
When the powers that be decide they want to reopen schools, the kids can go back and pick up where they left off. Maybe an extra month should be added to the school calendar for some remedial classes, so the kids can go back over some of the things they were taught prior to closing the schools.
And this will very likely be the way it plays out, but not for the reasons you are contemplating.
It will play out this way because of the vast American Denial.
Because we refuse to admit that The Rona is a multi-year crisis, we will continue to make really bad decisions.
That’s the price of freedoms baby!
I think my school may be going the postponement route. We had a great plan, everything ironed out and set up but that's on the back burner now.
We are an Apple Distinguished school 8 years running, all students have school managed devices, and we have a robust system set up for remote lecturing and student interactions. It's not like Zoom or Teams, it's a dedicated system that can handle multiple devices from each user sending a feed. We basically have everything that 99% of other schools don't, and even some colleges. But even though we are fully equipped for distance learning, we are painfully aware that it doesn't really work for students who aren't at least in their Junior year.
One of my upper level classes this year is a hybrid course, primarily for students who take multiple AP classes so they can have time to manage their workload. It works for them without a hitch, they love it. For the rest of the students, it's all over the map. I can't count the times I got an email saying "sorry I missed the lecture, I was still sleeping. What did I miss?" This is for a f***ing 1:30 class. And this is at a school that costs a good amount to attend with really solid parental involvement.
My kid goes to a primary which a STEM curriculum that is pretty rigorous. He had a few hours of work per day, and even though his parents are both teachers it was still a struggle at times. This exposes the biggest problem with remote learning: the parents. Not that they don't mean well, I think the great majority of them do. But they don't know what to do or how to get their kids to do things. It's like throwing me in a hospital and saying "treat that guy over there". Yeah, well, he's gonna die. Just like most parents wanted to after a few weeks of having their kids at home. A lot of them gave up, then teachers gave up trying to get the students to do anything, and it ended up a big waste of time.
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