General COVID-19 Talk #2, NHL Phase 2 begins early June Mod Warning post 1

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@HeadInjury is our Nostradamus

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This is the worst day yet for non-SNF deaths. 21


Wed: 21
Tues: 5
Mon: 1
Sun: 2
Sat : 3
Fri: 6
Thu:17
7.85 average non SNF deaths a day. That makes me really miss the 2.5 days...

ICU cases went up 1
Hospitalization went up 10
911 positives is more than yesterday's 865 but is under 1k, so that is kinda good
20.14% positive test rate today
f*** me.... we aren't getting off of the watchlist anytime soon

No Nostradamus. Just have friend sharing info.

My info was an increase in daily deaths of 25% over many locations, mostly outside of OC. Your data shows more than a 125% increase in OC since testerday. Assuming the data is consistent with one another, OC deaths would appear to be driving the overall number.

It could also just be that my data didn't capture all the deaths increase because it was from earlier this morning.
 
Well if you want to be completely and deliberately nonsensical I can't stop you, but the death rates on US soil for all of those aren't even close to covid-19. I mean... Zika? Right dude, come on.
Not being nonsensical at all. COVID-19 is not very deadly. It hasn't proven to be such no matter how often people say "just wait 2 weeks."
 
Does anyone have a handle on the rate of false negative tests.

Tests are so much more accessible now I want to make sure I get one every time I drive over to Arizona to visit my Mom and my Aunt.
 
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Does anyone have a handle on the rate of false negative tests.

Tests are so much more accessible now I want to make sure I get one every time I drive over to Arizona to visit my Mom and my Aunt.

Dunno' about the false positive %, but Rite Aid just started offering the testing:

Covid-19 Testing | Coronavirus Testing Near Me | Rite Aid

Oh, and regarding an earlier tangent: the Affordable Care Act mandated that pre-existing conditions have to be covered by all major medical insurance plans sold in the U.S. (short-term plans are exempted, but those are banned for sale here in California anyway). IIRC this started in 2014, when the State Exchange coverage became effective- did I miss a repeal of this provision in the past few months...?
 
Not being nonsensical at all. COVID-19 is not very deadly. It hasn't proven to be such no matter how often people say "just wait 2 weeks."
You’re not discussing this in good faith. Covid is by far the most lethal outbreak worldwide since 1918 and it’s not close. That you would bring those other viruses into the conversation as equivalent is absurd, even by hfboards standards.
 
at 1% kill rate thats 3.3 million deaths in the USA alone if it covers the population, thats pretty deadly like 3.3 million people is a lot of people
 
at 1% kill rate thats 3.3 million deaths in the USA alone if it covers the population, thats pretty deadly like 3.3 million people is a lot of people
i mean, that's fundamentally how this doesn't work

it's definitively more deadly to a certain group of the population, you can't spread a simple percentage to the entire US population and call it a projection
 
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i mean, that's fundamentally how this doesn't work

it's definitively more deadly to a certain group of the population, you can't spread a simple percentage to the entire US population and call it a projection

But it is exactly how it works, if the current death rate is around 1% then it certainly can be projected at 1% to the entire population. The death rate is deaths/infections, it does not factor in age or groups and the virus does not discriminate with age or groups to who it infects
 
But it is exactly how it works, if the current death rate is around 1% then it certainly can be projected at 1% to the entire population. The death rate is deaths/infections, it does not factor in age or groups and the virus does not discriminate with age or groups to who it infects
that's mathematically and statistically incorrect and i'm not about to rehash this argument all over again
 
COVID-19 has fallen below 1% kill rate since that article was written and hasn't proven to be particularly deadly to children. What is the devastation wrought by COVID that wasn't the result of mismanagement like sending infected elderly patients back to the nursing homes?


I'll just be blunt and say it's July 15th and if you're not a believer by now that this is something to be careful of, then no one should bother trying to "conversate" with you about it. That would require good faith conversation and an open mind, not inviting people to combat you with your mind made up. We've seen how that plays out over the last 5-10 pages and no need to cycle through it again.
 
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Re: AZ for @KINGS17

Arizona student describes "unacceptable" 26-day wait time for COVID-19 test results: "People are dying" - CBS News

"The average wait time for a non-priority patient receiving results on a coronavirus test in Arizona is now seven days, though some, like graduate student Elliot Truslow, are forced to wait nearly a month to hear whether they have the virus as cases balloon in the hard-hit state."

Problematic getting 'real' current numbers. Add to that the current squelching/bypass of CDC data control and things are gonna be 'smudged' for the next few weeks.

So, here come even inaccurate numbers to make things look not-so-bad but not sure they'll be able to bypass on-ground reporting and photos of slammed hospitals.

Hang on to your butts for a wild ride even in California, but it's gonna be warzone reporting in Florida, AZ, Texas.
 
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Not being nonsensical at all. COVID-19 is not very deadly. It hasn't proven to be such no matter how often people say "just wait 2 weeks."

I'm curious as to where you're getting your information from. Are you reading CDC or WHO or commentaries or news summaries? Have you read any actual peer reviewed limited studies with small sample groups because metaanslysis has not been completed at this time to my knowlege. Also, how you define "not very deadly"? Are you talking about just kill rate at the surface level? I can't remember the last time a disease or war wiped out 135k Americans in just six months. Can you please expand your argument and provide some specifics on how this is not a deadly virus? You have been given stats written by scientists in the preceding articles above and outright dismiss them so I'm wondering what kind of evidence based material you are basing "not very deadly". If you have something, please expand. If it's just your opinion, then that's ok. I'm just curious as to the foundation of your thought process.
 
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Does anyone have a handle on the rate of false negative tests.

Tests are so much more accessible now I want to make sure I get one every time I drive over to Arizona to visit my Mom and my Aunt.
My hospital error rate is 2 percent so 98 percent accuracy of the test itself. That stated, it also depends on if the nurse does the test correctly. Gotta check both nostrils and go all the way back to the sinuses for a full 15 seconds each side. That assumes the virus is in the sinuses and in many it is; however, we have also taken intubated patients and done a bronchial wash by going down into the lower respiratory tract and pulled that out and sent it down. The sample is run through PCR aka polymerase chain reaction where they multiply the sample into billions of DNA strands and then tested so even if you have a small micro-piece-of-snot, we can pick it up because it will be multiplied. I've had it done once, not very pleasant but I told the nurse to go for it because if it was there, I want to know so gotta just push the discomfort out through the feet like a boxer does when they get hit in the face.

But there are numerous types of tests out there currently. We were sort of left high and dry by this administration so hospitals came up with their own testing and some companies were able to streamline it independently and package and sell it to hospitals. (On my soap box a little bit). Now, if someone gets admitted to the hospital, they are going to get tested. If they are showing classic COVID symptoms like screwed up chest x ray, elevated d dimer, jacked up liver enzymes, normal WBCs showing a systemic infection, I can usually get results back in 3 hours but if they are just a normal admit for GI bleed or something like that and I'll likely get that back in 12 to 24 hours because we are just being safe and not exposing staff blah blah blah but it's like Oprah at XMAS, everyone gets one.

Long answer to short questions but just wanted to be thorough. Outside the hospital, there is a significant lag because it has to get sent to outside laboratory.

To clarify: I've never seen a negative later report as positive.
 
My hospital error rate is 2 percent so 98 percent accuracy of the test itself. That stated, it also depends on if the nurse does the test correctly. Gotta check both nostrils and go all the way back to the sinuses for a full 15 seconds each side. That assumes the virus is in the sinuses and in many it is; however, we have also taken intubated patients and done a bronchial wash by going down into the lower respiratory tract and pulled that out and sent it down. The sample is run through PCR aka polymerase chain reaction where they multiply the sample into billions of DNA strands and then tested so even if you have a small micro-piece-of-snot, we can pick it up because it will be multiplied. I've had it done once, not very pleasant but I told the nurse to go for it because if it was there, I want to know so gotta just push the discomfort out through the feet like a boxer does when they get hit in the face.

But there are numerous types of tests out there currently. We were sort of left high and dry by this administration so hospitals came up with their own testing and some companies were able to streamline it independently and package and sell it to hospitals. (On my soap box a little bit). Now, if someone gets admitted to the hospital, they are going to get tested. If they are showing classic COVID symptoms like screwed up chest x ray, elevated d dimer, jacked up liver enzymes, normal WBCs showing a systemic infection, I can usually get results back in 3 hours but if they are just a normal admit for GI bleed or something like that and I'll likely get that back in 12 to 24 hours because we are just being safe and not exposing staff blah blah blah but it's like Oprah at XMAS, everyone gets one.

Long answer to short questions but just wanted to be thorough. Outside the hospital, there is a significant lag because it has to get sent to outside laboratory.

To clarify: I've never seen a negative later report as positive.

Good stuff.

Our office just had Nasal Swab and Blood work done today, after 1 positive test. We were told we would know by Friday/Saturday time frame. I wouldn't be surprised if of the 35 ppl in the office between 5-10 now have it, or had it at some point, but we will see.

I will say, they did not do my sinuses for 15 seconds..I don't know if i coulda made it 15 seconds each if I'm being honest. That was rough. It was maybe 2-3 seconds in each nostril. Is that why you think there are so many "bad tests"? Can you also explain why it has to be both nostrils?
 
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My hospital error rate is 2 percent so 98 percent accuracy of the test itself. That stated, it also depends on if the nurse does the test correctly. Gotta check both nostrils and go all the way back to the sinuses for a full 15 seconds each side. That assumes the virus is in the sinuses and in many it is; however, we have also taken intubated patients and done a bronchial wash by going down into the lower respiratory tract and pulled that out and sent it down. The sample is run through PCR aka polymerase chain reaction where they multiply the sample into billions of DNA strands and then tested so even if you have a small micro-piece-of-snot, we can pick it up because it will be multiplied. I've had it done once, not very pleasant but I told the nurse to go for it because if it was there, I want to know so gotta just push the discomfort out through the feet like a boxer does when they get hit in the face.

But there are numerous types of tests out there currently. We were sort of left high and dry by this administration so hospitals came up with their own testing and some companies were able to streamline it independently and package and sell it to hospitals. (On my soap box a little bit). Now, if someone gets admitted to the hospital, they are going to get tested. If they are showing classic COVID symptoms like screwed up chest x ray, elevated d dimer, jacked up liver enzymes, normal WBCs showing a systemic infection, I can usually get results back in 3 hours but if they are just a normal admit for GI bleed or something like that and I'll likely get that back in 12 to 24 hours because we are just being safe and not exposing staff blah blah blah but it's like Oprah at XMAS, everyone gets one.

Long answer to short questions but just wanted to be thorough. Outside the hospital, there is a significant lag because it has to get sent to outside laboratory.

To clarify: I've never seen a negative later report as positive.
This is a little concerning to me, because I was recently given a COVID-19 test at a drive through testing center. The person only went up a single nostril, and most definitely did not swab for 15 seconds. I was going into the hospital for an out-patient procedure, which is why I was being tested.
 
Re: AZ for @KINGS17

Arizona student describes "unacceptable" 26-day wait time for COVID-19 test results: "People are dying" - CBS News

"The average wait time for a non-priority patient receiving results on a coronavirus test in Arizona is now seven days, though some, like graduate student Elliot Truslow, are forced to wait nearly a month to hear whether they have the virus as cases balloon in the hard-hit state."

Problematic getting 'real' current numbers. Add to that the current squelching/bypass of CDC data control and things are gonna be 'smudged' for the next few weeks.

So, here come even inaccurate numbers to make things look not-so-bad but not sure they'll be able to bypass on-ground reporting and photos of slammed hospitals.

Hang on to your butts for a wild ride even in California, but it's gonna be warzone reporting in Florida, AZ, Texas.
I was in Arizona last week to move my daughter into a new apartment in the Ahwatukee area. The underlying story in Arizona is large outbreaks are occurring mostly on Native American reservations and on the southern border.

Apparently, the virus has been raging in northern Mexico which has resulted in more cases in southern Arizona in border areas. Much like Los Angeles County in California, Arizona is experiencing outbreaks in areas which are densely populated and many people are living together in the same household.

I don't think the outbreaks in Arizona can be solely attributed to Arizona reopening.
 
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Another new pandemic is on the way. Remember I told all of you to be prepared for "murder hornets"?

Murder hornet update:

Another ‘murder hornet’ found in Washington State—here’s what that means.

Notice how all of this crap starts in Washington state. First COVID-19, then the murder hornets.

Now you must also be ready to protect yourself from "Nunchuck Bears". These bears know Kung Fu (Yeah, it is another Chinese Communist Party conspiracy!), and are very dangerous. So, wear those masks and stay safe!

 
I was in Arizona last week to move my daughter into a new apartment in the Ahwatukee area. The underlying story in Arizona is large outbreaks are occurring mostly on Native American reservations and on the southern border.

Apparently, the virus has been raging in northern Mexico which has resulted in more cases in southern Arizona in border areas. Much like Los Angeles County in California, Arizona is experiencing outbreaks in areas which are densely populated and many people are living together in the same household.

I don't think the outbreaks in Arizona can be solely attributed to Arizona reopening.
Those same outbreaks are what are wrecking Imperial County/ Calexico
 
Those same outbreaks are what are wrecking Imperial County/ Calexico
Yeah, I think what we are seeing in these areas is folks are transiting back and forth over the border, and many work in jobs where everyone is in close quarters (e.g. meat packing plants), then they go home to a crowded household and spread it around some more.
 
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