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General COVID-19 Talk #2, NHL Phase 2 begins early June Mod Warning post 1

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for some reason the OC is not updating it's numbers today. It usually happens between 11am and 1pm daily.
They have instead been posting articles on the facebook page

this is one of the articles posted. I think I may have posted it before , but it is a really good guide to transmission
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them


I do have to check in with my proctologist, and grab some pies for the draft lottery so i will be heading out soon
 
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Fri: 4
Thu:2
Wed:0
Tues: 1
Mon : 0
Sun : 1
Sat: 4

Last Friday was a 6 and that was replaced for a 4, so the average drops to 1.71
 
The numbers I watch most closely are deaths/million population and hospitalizations. I will be watching to see if there is a significant rise in the deaths per million in Texas, which currently stands at 82/million (one of the lowest in the U.S.). Florida at 158 deaths per million, and Arizona at 217 deaths per million also bear watching. I would hazard a guess that more elderly populations in Florida and Arizona are causing higher rates than we are seeing in Texas.

United States Coronavirus: 2,569,574 Cases and 127,797 Deaths - Worldometer

Hospitalizations are still declining according to this:

COVID-19 Hospitalizations
 
KINGS17 said:
The numbers I watch most closely are deaths/million population and hospitalizations. I will be watching to see if there is a significant rise in the deaths per million in Texas, which currently stands at 82/million (one of the lowest in the U.S.). Florida at 158 deaths per million, and Arizona at 217 deaths per million also bear watching. I would hazard a guess that more elderly populations in Florida and Arizona are causing higher rates than we are seeing in Texas.

United States Coronavirus: 2,569,574 Cases and 127,797 Deaths - Worldometer

Hospitalizations are still declining according to this:

COVID-19 Hospitalizations
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Deaths and hospitalizations are a lagging indicator considering it takes a while for people to get sick enough to have to go to the hospital and then die.
 
Chazz Reinhold said:
Deaths and hospitalizations are a lagging indicator considering it takes a while for people to get sick enough to have to go to the hospital and then die.
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They are lagging, but still worth watching. I am not as concerned as much with younger people contracting COVID-19, as long as those who are at-risk protect themselves.

Lagging or not deaths and hospitalizations are the end-result of most concern.
 
LT Dan said:
K17, you need to watch ICU numbers too
That is factor 3
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Agreed, it is probably a better indicator as admission numbers are being gamed a bit. Someone goes into the hospital for a routine procedure, tests positive and is counted as a COVID-19 admission even though they were asymptomatic.

I will be getting a COVID-19 test on Monday in preparation for a Wednesday admit and a routine procedure.
 
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KINGS17 said:
They are lagging, but still worth watching. I am not as concerned as much with younger people contracting COVID-19, as long as those who are at-risk protect themselves.

Lagging or not deaths and hospitalizations are the end-result of most concern.
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Absolutely. I just wanted to add the context that we don’t necessarily know how extensive the virus’s spread is just by looking at hospitalizations and deaths.

Also, LT Dan posted a good article about the aftereffects of the virus. I’ve seen others as well, but just because younger people may not be classified as “higher risk” doesn’t mean that there aren’t serious longterm consequences to young people (and, short of death, people of all ages) who are being infected.
 
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Chazz Reinhold said:
Absolutely. I just wanted to add the context that we don’t necessarily know how extensive the virus’s spread is just by looking at hospitalizations and deaths.

Also, LT Dan posted a good article about the aftereffects of the virus. I’ve seen others as well, but just because younger people may not be classified as “higher risk” doesn’t mean that there aren’t serious longterm consequences to young people (and, short of death, people of all ages) who are being infected.
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I understand the potential long-term risks for younger people with conditions like asthma, etc. If I was in that category, I would consider myself in the high-risk category and avoid crowds in enclosed spaces.
 
Chazz Reinhold said:
Even people without any conditions are having serious organ damage. It’s not just people with conditions.
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A few are to be sure. You never know how an infection such as COVID-19 will effect each individual. Overall, young healthy people are not at risk for long-term health issues as a result of contracting COVID-19. I would need to see a reversal in the data to be convinced it is otherwise. The news will always report the anecdotal cases to continue supporting their pumped up ratings.
 
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KINGS17 said:
A few are to be sure. You never know how an infection such as COVID-19 will effect each individual. Overall, young healthy people are not at risk for long-term health issues as a result of contracting COVID-19. I would need to see a reversal in the data to be convinced it is otherwise. The news will always report the anecdotal cases to continue supporting their pumped up ratings.
Click to expand...
Which is why we really need to do some follow up on the survivors to really see the frequencing and severity
 
LT Dan said:
Which is why we really need to do some follow up on the survivors to really see the frequencing and severity
Click to expand...
Short of free antibody tests and a major public service announcement program to get more Americans to take the test, I am not sure you can ID the effects on COVID-19 cases overall. There may be millions of people who have contracted COVID-19 with no ill effects at all. What I don't want to see alone is follow-up with hospitalized patients only determining the course of future actions in terms of future stay-at-home orders for healthy individuals.
 
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Chazz Reinhold said:
Even people without any conditions are having serious organ damage. It’s not just people with conditions.
Click to expand...
Bingo! Can't even count how many people I have seen with no medical history who suddenly are fighting for their lives. Primarily heart failure, lung damage, kidney damage. It transmits via respiratory but it does so many other things. I wish they would call this something else because it ravages the body like an autoimmune disease. So we get someone in and watch and wait to see what else develops as we are treating their primary issue. When I transfer a Pt to the floor from the ICU, I wonder how their life is going to turn out. I've been saying we need to track the incidents of heart failure, kidney failure, lung disease and create a database for those numbers but I honestly think there is so much going on with tracking that this falls to the wayside.

Kind of like how we treated the war on drugs back in the 80s. we did it all wrong. It was completely watered down....instead of "this is your brain on drugs" followed by a fried egg in a pan, they should have showed someone with heart failure taking 3-4 meds per day, barely getting a sentence out and trying to work and make rent/mortgage and having seizures secondary to meth/cocaine/heroine use. I think that would have been a better message.

We show lots of graphic stuff on TV/Movies/Video Games all the time and no one bats an eye but we sanitize real life and I think that creates unrealistic expectations. Maybe I'm too jaded, I don't know...but I put my mask on every day and go back at it wondering what kind of shit show I'm going to see that night. So f*** it, show the public the images with Pt/Family permission and use that to educate people on what we're up against and maybe we'll get a better conversation instead of freedom or death by breathing our own coffee breath because someone got a bug up their but and heard something on Facebook but barely passed science class. Thanks for giving me a place to vent. (no pun intended).
 
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Papa Mocha 15 said:
Bingo! Can't even count how many people I have seen with no medical history who suddenly are fighting for their lives. Primarily heart failure, lung damage, kidney damage. It transmits via respiratory but it does so many other things. I wish they would call this something else because it ravages the body like an autoimmune disease. So we get someone in and watch and wait to see what else develops as we are treating their primary issue. When I transfer a Pt to the floor from the ICU, I wonder how their life is going to turn out. I've been saying we need to track the incidents of heart failure, kidney failure, lung disease and create a database for those numbers but I honestly think there is so much going on with tracking that this falls to the wayside.

Kind of like how we treated the war on drugs back in the 80s. we did it all wrong. It was completely watered down....instead of "this is your brain on drugs" followed by a fried egg in a pan, they should have showed someone with heart failure taking 3-4 meds per day, barely getting a sentence out and trying to work and make rent/mortgage and having seizures secondary to meth/cocaine/heroine use. I think that would have been a better message.

We show lots of graphic stuff on TV/Movies/Video Games all the time and no one bats an eye but we sanitize real life and I think that creates unrealistic expectations. Maybe I'm too jaded, I don't know...but I put my mask on every day and go back at it wondering what kind of shit show I'm going to see that night. So f*** it, show the public the images with Pt/Family permission and use that to educate people on what we're up against and maybe we'll get a better conversation instead of freedom or death by breathing our own coffee breath because someone got a bug up their but and heard something on Facebook but barely passed science class. Thanks for giving me a place to vent. (no pun intended).
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I would rather see the data on serious long-term complications, than the images of someone suffering. I also don't understand what is so difficult about keeping track of the number of people who have serious long-term complications, but did not die from the virus. This kind of information is very valuable to the public, and everyone should know it.
 
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KINGS17 said:
I would rather see the data on serious long-term complications, than the images of someone suffering. I also don't understand what is so difficult about keeping track of the number of people who have serious long-term complications, but did not die from the virus. This kind of information is very valuable to the public, and everyone should know it.
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I'm with you on that but there is a population out there that is of the mindset that masks aren't necessary and we just need to reach herd immunity regardless of the elderly who are sacrificed and maybe that is where my frustration comes from. And it just tells me that this hasn't reached their neighborhood yet, which is a blessing in itself so if they need to see it to believe it, then why not make it so. But I agree with you that the long term effect of data will be helpful to those who believe in numbers as well as well as long term treatments and effects for this damn virus. For the numbers, I don't know why we aren't doing it....I've thought of doing some tracing in my spare time but I gotta a family too and I'm already working full time...blah blah blah.
 
Papa Mocha 15 said:
I'm with you on that but there is a population out there that is of the mindset that masks aren't necessary and we just need to reach herd immunity regardless of the elderly who are sacrificed and maybe that is where my frustration comes from. And it just tells me that this hasn't reached their neighborhood yet, which is a blessing in itself so if they need to see it to believe it, then why not make it so. But I agree with you that the long term effect of data will be helpful to those who believe in numbers as well as well as long term treatments and effects for this damn virus. For the numbers, I don't know why we aren't doing it....I've thought of doing some tracing in my spare time but I gotta a family too and I'm already working full time...blah blah blah.
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I wouldn't expect care givers to do this job. It is primarily data mining. You guys are already writing it all down. This country is spending billions of dollars on this problem. I would like some smart people that collect and process medical trial data for a living to crunch the numbers.
 
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3 deaths in OC today none were SNF


Running average down to 1.42
Sun:3
Sat: 0
Fri:4
Thu:2
Wed:0
Tues: 1
Mon : 0


ICu cases drop from 179 to 170
 
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