Pre-Game Talk: Game 4 -> SWEEP or Comeback to win it in 7?

[LeafGrief]

I think they roll over and die.

But the Leafiest thing to do will be to claw it back to game 7, giving us all a ray of hope that they're for real this time, and THEN roll over and die.

Does it end with a bang, or a whimper? Either way, I think it's ending.

 

[PromisedLand]

 

[PROUD PAPA]

I think they roll over and die.

But the Leafiest thing to do will be to claw it back to game 7, giving us all a ray of hope that they're for real this time, and THEN roll over and die.

Does it end with a bang, or a whimper? Either way, I think it's ending.

Maybe the embarrassment of being swept can motivate them for 1 game.

However, based on the indifference displayed by the core 4 so far it's probably not a good bet.

 

[PromisedLand]

Nice lines Sheldon.

Holl gets a promotion?

All joking aside I hope the boys pull off a W. Win this one, get the series back to Toronto and take it one game at a time.

Game 3 was awful but the team played well in Games 1 and 2. This series has not been a blowout. Even with the bad Game 3 we still could have won the damn thing. Lets go!

Go Leafs Go!

its shit like this that has really soured me on keefe. Can't wait for "good riddance!" to come asap

There is no merit or accountability here...

 

[Throw More Waffles]

There's absolutely no way they show up. None No possible chance.

I predict 6-1 Florida.

 

[Trapper]

Please -- everyone -- correct me (and explain it to me like an eight year old)...But when considering that only a sweep of Florida puts us in the 3rd Round:

if we have a 0% chance of sweeping the 2nd Round, but an 8.5% chance of making the 3rd Round...should we rely on the statistician providing the information?

We have a 0% chance of sweeping (in order to sweep you can’t lose any games). Winning 4 in a row after losing the first 3 doesn’t count as sweeping. Which brings us to the next percent.

If we win the next 4 games we advance to the 3rd round. We have an 8.5% chance of doing that.

Hope that helps.

 

[67leafs]

I’ll be at the game, center ice row 18. Cmon boys I wanna see game 6 back in South Florida…..!!

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Marner sounds like such a little bitch.

He's an overpaid, petulant, little bitch who cries when he's called out for playing like shit.
Embarrassing and quite honestly, I'd love to see this cat get dealt to Columbus or Arizona...good luck being Mitchy Superstar over there where nobody cares.

 

[Mess]

It honestly won't surprise me if they win the next 3 and it comes down to game 7. They could also fall flat too.

Pessimism is definitely the prevailing mood here (and that's to be expected given Sundays performance). But the Leafs still have the talent to make things interesting - something that shouldn't be undervalued

At the end of the day I'd rather see something like that happen than any other option. I'm ultimately a fan because I want to see the team win, not make trades or signings

If one added Realism into the equation then based on past 100 year NHL history only 4 teams in 202 attempts have come back for 0-3 down.

The mathematical % odds are 1.98 % chance of Leafs based on that data sample of actual past events.

Putting that in context if you flipped a coin 202 times and it came up heads 4 X and tails 198 X, then how much trust, hope, faith & confidence would one place in the 203 flip ending up heads?

There is a 98% historical chance this doesn't end well, with Optimism factor of success at 2%.

 

[MilkofthePoppy]

I knew this was over in 4 before it even started. This city has a loser mentality. We celebrated a round 1 victory like it was a final and subsequently committed the ultimate act of hubris. This is over tomorrow night. No questions.

As for what Marner said about the media, he is right, they are irrelevant. Justin "Glug Glug" Bourne and Nick "The Concussion" Kypreos were clamoring for McCabe and Lafferty before the deadline. Don't even get me started on Sid "Messi is a Fraud" Sexiero, Elliot "Hairplugs" Friedman, Steve "Corporately Packaged SJW Leaf Fan" Dangle.

 

[Mess]

Please -- everyone -- correct me (and explain it to me like an eight year old)...But when considering that only a sweep of Florida puts us in the 3rd Round:

if we have a 0% chance of sweeping the 2nd Round, but an 8.5% chance of making the 3rd Round...should we rely on the statistician providing the information?

Sweeping a round is not winning 4 games in a row, its winning the first 4 games of a series and winning it 4-0.

Therefore Leafs had zero % chance of sweeping the 2nd round the moment they lost game #1. The only way Leafs win if its a 7 game series and their odds of coming back and doing it are only 8.5 % .

The Florida series is the only one in the 2nd round capable of ending in a sweep and their odds are nearly 50/50 at this point.

 

[GoonieFace]

If one added Realism into the equation then based on past 100 year NHL history only 4 teams in 202 attempts have come back for 0-3 down.

The mathematical % odds are 1.98 % chance of Leafs based on that data sample of actual past events.

Putting that in context if you flipped a coin 202 times and it came up heads 4 X and tails 198 X, then how much trust, hope, faith & confidence would one place in the 203 flip ending up heads?

There is a 98% historical chance this doesn't end well, with Optimism factor of success at 2%.

So Leaf’s in 7?

 

[ITM]

We have a 0% chance of sweeping (in order to sweep you can’t lose any games). Winning 4 in a row after losing the first 3 doesn’t count as sweeping. Which brings us to the next percent.

If we win the next 4 games we advance to the 3rd round. We have an 8.5% chance of doing that.

Hope that helps.

It does. File under: I didn’t know the definition of sweep excluded winning four in a row having lost three. Cheers.

Sweeping a round is not winning 4 games in a row, its winning the first 4 games of a series and winning it 4-0.

Therefore Leafs had zero % chance of sweeping the 2nd round the moment they lost game #1.

Florida is the only team in the 2nd round capable of ending in a sweep and their odds are nearly 50/50 at this point.

Appreciate the reply.

I’ll look for them more often in the future when you’re corrected.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

They split them up all the time. It didn't work either. Come on...

Would rather try something crazy then like Bunting-Matthews-Taveres & Nylander-ROR-Marner then lose another series riding the regular season superstar duo of Mitch and Auston.

 

[AuraSphere]

They split them up all the time. It didn't work either. Come on...

What are you seeing? Marner didn't work with Tavares?

Marner - Tavares
Matthews - Nylander

have sure as hell looked better than the Matthews - Marner, Nylander - Tavares shit they keep trying

 

[PromisedLand]

When you got $25m owing, why bend to the brats ?? Worst care they fire him and he rides off into the sunset and does not have to watch these guys choke another playoff series.

truth be told i think babcock was kind. if it was me behind the bench with that much money still owing these asshats would be doing bagskates after the game or sitting in the pressbox.

When more is given to you, more is expected of you; and if you are just gong to whine/bitch/complain while not shouldering the responsibility you are not dressing. Peirod! Go be "cool" in the pressbox

 

[PanniniClaus]

LMAO this JOKE of a coach still doesn't have Nylander on #1PP unit. Can't make this shit up

So based on the practice lines and PP2... one of Gus or Gio so 11/7.. Lilly back in.

 

[PromisedLand]

So based on the practice lines and PP2... one of Gus or Gio so 11/7.. Lilly back in.

Holl sleeping on the PK allowing panthers to score a goal on a breakaway so naturally he deserves a promotion.

So

 

[PanniniClaus]

Holl sleeping on the PK allowing panthers to score a goal on a breakaway so naturally he deserves a promotion.

So

Holl should not play another game in a leaf jersey.. If injuries hit in this series... Timmons is there.. I'm sure he's a good guy and a decent story but he tried to kill us in the Tampa series and he got right back to work in game 3 of this one.

 

[Mess]

I get it but I don’t…Including the possibility expressed for one team while it exists for one team but can’t for the other.

Florida is the only team that can pull off a sweep of all the 2nd round series and it end 4-0, because all the other 2nd round series already have both teams already winning a game forcing at least 5 games.

Only teams up 3-0 in their series qualify for a sweep in 4 games.

Florida odds are 48% to win the next game #4 in the series, and it end in 4 games, and 91.5% to win the series and advance in any # of games 4-7.

Leafs odds are set at 8.5% to win 4 straight games to advance.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Might be better to forfeit and avoid injuries

 

[SprDaVE]

What are you seeing? Marner didn't work with Tavares?

Marner - Tavares
Matthews - Nylander

have sure as hell looked better than the Matthews - Marner, Nylander - Tavares shit they keep trying

You're forgetting the hundreds times what you posted wasn't exactly working either, they constantly flip Nylander and Marner... most recent example --- TBL series. Let's do it again!! It'll work this time!

 

[egd27]

Please -- everyone -- correct me (and explain it to me like an eight year old)...But when considering that only a sweep of Florida puts us in the 3rd Round:

if we have a 0% chance of sweeping the 2nd Round, but an 8.5% chance of making the 3rd Round...should we rely on the statistician providing the information?

In this chart, sweep is defined as winning the first 4 games.

i.e. FLA is now the only team with the possibility of a "sweep"

 

[HolyCrap]

Holl sleeping on the PK allowing panthers to score a goal on a breakaway so naturally he deserves a promotion.

So

It’s mind boggling. Our defence is very over rated by the homers. We still lack a number one dman. And we’re playing a non NHL player on the second pair. Looks like they wanna start their summer vacation asap.

 

[Legion34]

I still would absolutely bet that the leafs win the next 3 and lose in 7

This team D has played like garbage.