G Tyler Parsons - London Knights, OHL (2016, 54th, CGY)

[The Winter Soldier]

I'd be surprised....one tournament shouldn't put Parsons in the top 3 goalies. I'd still love him in the leafs system though.

But he has been very good the entire OHL playoffs, not just one tournament. There is no doubt in my mind he has raised his stock, with only one more game to play.

Here is what Otten wrote before the playoffs.

An average sized netminder by NHL standards, Parsons has been mostly terrific this season, using his quickness and athleticism to make big saves, night after night. But the OHL playoffs will be another story for Parsons. His performance in the post season will go a long way in determining where he’s drafted.

Brock Otten, OHL Prospects

 

[613Leafer]

I'd bet real money that Toronto will draft Parsons.

I hope so. I dont think there's much of a gap between the top ~5-7 or so goalie prospects in this draft. Getting Parsons with a 3rd would be pretty good value IMO, especially with all the picks we have to take some chances like this.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I hope so. I dont think there's much of a gap between the top ~5-7 or so goalie prospects in this draft. Getting Parsons with a 3rd would be pretty good value IMO, especially with all the picks we have to take some chances like this.

I always wondered why teams would be reluctant to not take goalies high in the draft. Goaltending is such an important position in the NHL. Parsons was the 3rd top rated NA Goalie by CSB before the playoffs began. He has been named one of the 3 stars throughout the entire playoffs. A real unsung hero on a team with a lot of high profile talent. I would definitely pick him in the 3rd rd, and he would be a steal in the mid rds. But I would give a thumbs up to a team that stepped up and take him in the 2nd rd. I feel he potentially has this type of impact of draft eligible players.

 

[93LEAFS]

I always wondered why teams would be reluctant to not take goalies high in the draft. Goaltending is such an important position in the NHL. Parsons was the 3rd top rated NA Goalie by CSB before the playoffs began. He has been named one of the 3 stars throughout the entire playoffs. A real unsung hero on a team with a lot of high profile talent. I would definitely pick him in the 3rd rd, and he would be a steal in the mid rds. But I would give a thumbs up to a team that stepped up and take him in the 2nd rd. I feel he potentially has this type of impact of draft eligible players.

Because have you seen the bust rate of goalies...... Just look at how the top ranked goalie turns out every year for Price, Fluery and Luongo, there are guys like Leclaire, Montoya, Gistedt, Chet Pickard, Koskinen, and Jack Campbell, and even minor successes like Lehtonen and Dipeitro didn't live up to draft position. Compare that to the top ranked guys at other positions, and the success rate there. The list of first round busts at goalies is massive. Half the time goalies you draft end up making it for someone else or never make it. Look at Rangers who used top picks on Blackburn and Montoya, only to find their golden starter in the 7th.

 

[613Leafer]

I always wondered why teams would be reluctant to not take goalies high in the draft. Goaltending is such an important position in the NHL. Parsons was the 3rd top rated NA Goalie by CSB before the playoffs began. He has been named one of the 3 stars throughout the entire playoffs. A real unsung hero on a team with a lot of high profile talent. I would definitely pick him in the 3rd rd, and he would be a steal in the mid rds. But I would give a thumbs up to a team that stepped up and take him in the 2nd rd. I feel he potentially has this type of impact of draft eligible players.

Im perfectly fine taking a goalie high. I dont see any Samsonov/Vasilevsky calibre goalies in this draft, but several guys definitely worthy of a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Leafs have 12 picks, two 2nds, and I believe two 3rds. I wouldnt be against us taking two goalies in the ~2nd-4th rounds. Its a huge weakness in our organization.

And at that point of the draft, its not any riskier than taking a skater. How have Ross, Ryan, Blacker, Finn, Devane, McKegg, etc turned out for the Leafs.

 

[613Leafer]

Because have you seen the bust rate of goalies...... Just look at how the top ranked goalie turns out every year for Price, Fluery and Luongo, there are guys like Leclaire, Montoya, Gistedt, Chet Pickard, Koskinen, and Jack Campbell, and even minor successes like Lehtonen and Dipeitro didn't live up to draft position. Compare that to the top ranked guys at other positions, and the success rate there. The list of first round busts at goalies is massive. Half the time goalies you draft end up making it for someone else or never make it. Look at Rangers who used top picks on Blackburn and Montoya, only to find their golden starter in the 7th.

Thats why goalies dont go in the high 1st anymore, and even rarely in the 1st round at all. I dont think bust rates for goalies in the 2nd/3rd are any worse than taking forwrds/D.

And while there are starting goalies found in the later rounds, there are also a TON of goalies taken in the later rounds every draft. So your chances of finding a starter are very very low.

 

[93LEAFS]

Thats why goalies dont go in the high 1st anymore, and even rarely in the 1st round at all. I dont think bust rates for goalies in the 2nd/3rd are any worse than taking forwrds/D.

And while there are starting goalies found in the later rounds, there are also a TON of goalies taken in the later rounds every draft. So your chances of finding a starter are very very low.

I'm not opposed to taking one in the 2nd, my point is why teams are so reluctant to draft them in the 1st.

 

[613Leafer]

I'm not opposed to taking one in the 2nd, my point is why teams are so reluctant to draft them in the 1st.

The Winter Soldier was advocating taking Parsons in the 3rd or maybe 2nd, not the 1st.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Just came here to post this. I'm getting a gut feeling the Leafs pick him at 60 if he's available.

That or I just really want him

Leafs don't have 60, we have 56 and 61.

I'm hoping we can get him at 71 or 91

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Because have you seen the bust rate of goalies...... Just look at how the top ranked goalie turns out every year for Price, Fluery and Luongo, there are guys like Leclaire, Montoya, Gistedt, Chet Pickard, Koskinen, and Jack Campbell, and even minor successes like Lehtonen and Dipeitro didn't live up to draft position. Compare that to the top ranked guys at other positions, and the success rate there. The list of first round busts at goalies is massive. Half the time goalies you draft end up making it for someone else or never make it. Look at Rangers who used top picks on Blackburn and Montoya, only to find their golden starter in the 7th.

I would not consider Vasilevsky, Schneider, Ward, Gibson, Brodeur, Luongo, Price, Varlamov, Pavelec, Subban, Dansk, bad picks. Just off the top of my head of Goalies that were picked in the 1st or 2nd rd.

I don't know if you are old enough to remember Felix Potvin. Leafs used a 2nd rd pick to take him. He ended up being their #1 franchise goalie. Infact the Leafs used a first on another goalie that turned out pretty good that is playing for Boston right now. Some Finnish Goaltender?

If you believe a prospect is going to be good, will make a positive impact to your team in the future. You make that pick. You can't look at history with only a half glass empty approach. There have been plenty of examples cited in my post that the half glass full approach has been more than worth the risk. Where all prospects are risk/reward propositions. Goaltending arguably the most important position in hockey and it is high time the draft should treat it as such IMO.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Im perfectly fine taking a goalie high. I dont see any Samsonov/Vasilevsky calibre goalies in this draft, but several guys definitely worthy of a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Leafs have 12 picks, two 2nds, and I believe two 3rds. I wouldnt be against us taking two goalies in the ~2nd-4th rounds. Its a huge weakness in our organization.

And at that point of the draft, its not any riskier than taking a skater. How have Ross, Ryan, Blacker, Finn, Devane, McKegg, etc turned out for the Leafs.

From A Leafs perspective, I would agree. They need a stud goaltending prospect in their system. They have had pretty good luck with Goalies when they picked them high. Potvin and Rask the 2 most recent examples.

But Parsons may go anywhere, I can see other teams liking him also. This is why in a weak draft past 20. I can see a team investing in a goalie in the 2nd rd like Parsons. I would argue his potential impact would be as high or higher than most 2nd rd picks this draft.

 

[LeafGrief]

I would not consider Vasilevsky, Schneider, Ward, Gibson, Brodeur, Luongo, Price, Varlamov, Pavelec, Subban, Dansk, bad picks. Just off the top of my head of Goalies that were picked in the 1st or 2nd rd.

I don't know if you are old enough to remember Felix Potvin. Leafs used a 2nd rd pick to take him. He ended up being their #1 franchise goalie. Infact the Leafs used a first on another goalie that turned out pretty good that is playing for Boston right now. Some Finnish Goaltender?

If you believe a prospect is going to be good, will make a positive impact to your team in the future. You make that pick. You can't look at history with only a half glass empty approach. There have been plenty of examples cited in my post that the half glass full approach has been more than worth the risk. Where all prospects are risk/reward propositions. Goaltending arguably the most important position in hockey and it is high time the draft should treat it as such IMO.

It is important that teams take goalies and that some of them do go high. Samsonov is the example of this. But as 93Leafs accurately pointed out, goalies have a very high bust rate. At the draft where high picks come in limited supply, teams have to think about their expected value from the pick. Spending a mid 1st or early 2nd on a goalie who has a 10-20% chance to make the NHL and be a starter (much less a good or great starter) is a tough call when that pick can get a 45% chance at a decent NHL skater. Teams want good goalie prospects, but they can't afford to lose the value of high picks on such a tough position to predict. If goalies were drafted at 20 instead of 18, I think you'd see a lot more getting picked in the 1st.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

It is important that teams take goalies and that some of them do go high. Samsonov is the example of this. But as 93Leafs accurately pointed out, goalies have a very high bust rate. At the draft where high picks come in limited supply, teams have to think about their expected value from the pick. Spending a mid 1st or early 2nd on a goalie who has a 10-20% chance to make the NHL and be a starter (much less a good or great starter) is a tough call when that pick can get a 45% chance at a decent NHL skater. Teams want good goalie prospects, but they can't afford to lose the value of high picks on such a tough position to predict. If goalies were drafted at 20 instead of 18, I think you'd see a lot more getting picked in the 1st.

It's fair to note, and Scott Cullen had a great article about this. 2nd rd(which as 416Leafer mentioned where I advocated for Parsons) and 3rd round picks bust at a decent rate. It is not exclusive to Goalies. And we have to remember for Goaltenders, there is only 1 #1G per team. It's not like 6 D men or 12 fwds per team.

 

[carko32]

Everytime there is a debate about goalies and them busting, I post this beautiful article by bluebullet:
https://bluebulletreport.com/2015/06/04/rethinking-how-to-draft-goalies/comment-page-1/

Here are some findings that are mentioned in article:

If we look at this list(my edit: the list of goalies drafted between 1-77OA in years 1998-2006):

– 16 of 33 goalies went on to play 50+ NHL games (48.5%).
– 13 of the 33 goalies played 100+ NHL games (39.4%)
– 9 of the 33 goalies played 200+ NHL games (27.3%)

These numbers were quite surprising for me, as I thought the % of goalies with over 50 games played would be considerably less. Scott Cullen took a look at goalies drafted in the top 30 picks and 50% had over 100 games played, but I do not like using the same amount of games played for goalies as forwards/d-men since goalies have to share the load. Now if we compare the success rates of goalies taken in the top 30 with 50+ games played vs. that of forwards/d-men with 100+ games played these are the results:

Forwards(%) 73.5
D-Men(%) 70.6
Goalies(%) 50.0

Taking a goalie with a 1st round pick is not advantageous and should only be done in special circumstances (Price, Fleury, Bernier) as 6 of the 7 goalies that went on to play 50+ games were taken in the top 14 picks. Otherwise, it is best to wait till the 2nd or early 3rd round as this is when goalies become of value.

Players(%)
31-60 34.0
61-90 29.3
Goalies(%)
31-77 47.4

With this new information, I can adjust my views as using a top 100 pick on a goalie is not as risky as I once believed. Between the 31st and 77th pick, it is actually a safer bet to take one of the top goalies than a forward or d-man, so if you are in the market for a goalie this is when to strike. If we average it over 9 years, generally 4 CHL goalies are taken before the top 80 with 2 of them being successful picks

I did some additional digging about 1st rounders, posted it on our boards. From 1st rounders 5 of them were/are starters in this league. And 3 players that were drafted between 31OA and 77OA are starters in this league.

When it comes to drafting goalies from the 80th spot and later in the draft, the scouts crashed and burned.
– 6 of 65 goalies (9.2%) went on to play 50+ NHL games.
– 5 of the 65 goalies played 100+ NHL games (7.7%)
– 3 of the 65 goalies played 200+ NHL games (4.6%)

Different story for European goalies:

If we look at this list:

– 7 of 11 goalies (63.6%) went on to play 50+ NHL games.

– 6 of the 11 goalies played 100+ NHL games (54.5%)

– 4 of the 11 goalies played 200+ NHL games (36.4%)

Once again, we see that scouts do a good job at selecting the top end goalies, which further enforces the point that the top goalies need to be picked up before it is too late.

List of European goalies selected after 50OA:
– 6 of 30 goalies went on to play 50+ NHL games (20.0%).
– 4 of the 30 goalies played 100+ NHL games (13.3%)
– 3 of the 30 goalies played 200+ NHL games (10.0%)

When you compare the numbers between European goalies and CHL goalies, you had double the chance of getting a successful goalie if you take the European goalie. Out of the 6 Euro goalies, with 50+ NHL games, only 1 of them was taken before the 6th round (Greiss). If this trend has continued, taking a flyer on a Euro goalie with a 6th or 7th round choice would be wise, since 20% odds is a very good deal for a late draft pick considering 19.3% of 4th round players hit 100 games while it is 14.7% for a 5th round pick and 15.5% for a 6th round choice.

WHAT DID WE LEARN

What we have learned is that the best method of drafting goalies is to stay away from using a first round pick on a goalie (unless it is an exceptional goalie) as the odds are significantly better if you draft a forward or d-men over a goalie (over 40% better). Instead, the best time to draft one of the top rated goalies from North America or Europe is to grab them in the 2nd or early 3rd round. Goalies in this range tend to out perform the forwards and d-men by 50% and if you wait to long all the good goalies will be gone. If a team wants to take a shot on a goalie in the late rounds, it is better to take a European goalie as history shows they are twice as likely at becoming a successful NHL goalie as their North American counterparts. By doing this a team will give itself the best chance of getting a successful goalie.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Everytime there is a debate about goalies and them busting, I post this beautiful article by bluebullet:
https://bluebulletreport.com/2015/06/04/rethinking-how-to-draft-goalies/comment-page-1/

Here are some findings that are mentioned in article:


I did some additional digging about 1st rounders, posted it on our boards. From 1st rounders 5 of them were/are starters in this league. And 3 players that were drafted between 31OA and 77OA are starters in this league.



Different story for European goalies:

Thanks, I had a feeling this was the case. I agree on the premise. Unless the Goalie is exceptional. I would not draft one in the 1st rd. A 2nd rd pick, absolutely depending on the depth of a draft. This year, I would definitely consider it as the depth past 20 is a struggle tp find quality IMO.

 

[AuraSphere]

Despite his performance, I still kinda think he's overhyped. I'd take him with a 3rd or very late 2nd (AKA Washington pick)

 

[carko32]

Thanks, I had a feeling this was the case. I agree on the premise. Unless the Goalie is exceptional. I would not draft one in the 1st rd. A 2nd rd pick, absolutely depending on the depth of a draft. This year, I would definitely consider it as the depth past 20 is a struggle tp find quality IMO.

I agree with you. Many analysts are saying that this is not deep draft. But unfortunately it also seems that goalies are not as good as they were last year. But I understand your position, I think that teams might be more inclined to draft a goalie in a 2nd round this year because skaters available will all come with more questions than skaters in 2nd round last year.

 

[jabes]

Great tourney he saved the game for them a few times in the final. Thought he deserved MVP, but obviously wasn't going to happen.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Great tourney he saved the game for them a few times in the final. Thought he deserved MVP, but obviously wasn't going to happen.

He was definitely great again yesterday, other than Tkachuk and Dvorak. I thought he came up biggest in the final game. Agreed, he had a fantastic playoffs, and if he gets picked in the 2nd rd this draft. He will be well worth it IMO.

 

[Ash35]

He's be incredible all playoffs. I would be suprised if he's available past the second round.

 

[bert]

He was definitely great again yesterday, other than Tkachuk and Dvorak. I thought he came up biggest in the final game. Agreed, he had a fantastic playoffs, and if he gets picked in the 2nd rd this draft. He will be well worth it IMO.

He was the difference in both games against RN. He really tracks pucks well and makes big saves when it counts most. I came away so impressed with this play, I thought he was the MVP last night switch the goalies and I think RN wins.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

He was the difference in both games against RN. He really tracks pucks well and makes big saves when it counts most. I came away so impressed with this play, I thought he was the MVP last night switch the goalies and I think RN wins.

I notice this aspect of his game too. I can only say he's got that aura about him when it comes to good Goalies. They make the saves when the game is on the line. He will always be an all star winning goalie of a Memorial Cup champion as a draft eligible player. That says something to me. He's not a +1, +2 or overaged player. He can probably be had for a 2nd rd pick. Not sure he will be there in the 3rd, and probably will be gone by the 4th mid round. As mentioned before, I would certainly take him with a 2nd rd pick. Like Parsons a lot!

 

[LastWordArmy]

http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/06/09/tyler-parsons-scouting-report-2016-nhl-draft-69/

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Parsons is the 2nd highest rated Goalie on Mckenzie's list at #48. Only 4 spots behind Gustavsson at #44.

Looks like he will be picked in the 2nd rd this draft if Mckenzie's algorithms predicting the draft order are correct

 

[Fire Treliving]

Calgary takes him at 54. A reach?