Prospect Info: G Topias Leinonen -- Selected 41st overall in 2022

[The Blunder Years]

No point in making any assumptions about him yet.

Talk to me in 2028

 

[Zman5778]

Likely a bust

It is way, way, way too early to be saying this. Goalies develop completely on their own schedule. This guy obviously has talent. Let's be patient with him before declaring him a bust.

 

[Fjordy]

It's easy to nitpick over a year later but looking at the entire 2022 draft it's really hard to come down on the decisions the Sabres made. Leinonen was their fourth draft pick of the entire draft and he fell about where he was projected. I'm not really interested in second guessing that pick an entire year later, especially in what looks to be a stellar draft in its entirety.

1 9 Matthew Savoie
1 16 Noah Ostlund
1 28 Jiri Kulich
2 41 Topias Leinonen
3 74 Viktor Neuchev
4 106 Mats Lindgren
5 134 Vsevolod Komarov
6 170 Jake Richard
6 187 Gustav Karlsson
7 202 Joel Ratkovic Berndtsson
7 211 Linus Sjodin

As I have already said several goalies chosen later, I simply like more than Leinonen. Adams talked about it this way, as if they chose not BPA, but simply because he is a goalie, and someone whispered to Adams to choose Leinonen.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

No point in making any assumptions about him yet.

Talk to me in 2028

I'll admit I wasn't a fan of the pick but I agree its too early to make assumptions.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

As I have already said several goalies chosen later, I simply like more than Leinonen. Adams talked about it this way, as if they chose not BPA, but simply because he is a goalie, and someone whispered to Adams to choose Leinonen.

I too agree he was a reach and would've rather drafted Warren, Luneau and other RHD that were available @ 41 but we must remember, Portillo and Levi were not signed yet.. I am assuming Adams wasn't 100% sold that either of them were going to sign so he drafted the "best goalie" available.

 

[HOOats]

It's possible to think two things concurrently. He has absolutely had a disappointing, if not fully lost, year-plus since being drafted and it's easy to hindsight cherry pick better 2nd rounders. But also goalies take forever to develop and it's usually not a linear path (many want to write off a still uncured UPL).

It feels fair to say that his conditioning and physical makeup are concerns and may be contributing to his slow development. His weight is a major outlier for a goalie his age, he looks sluggish in net, and now he's dealing with a LBI.

Obviously none of us can "write him off" meaningfully as we don't have any power in his development. We have three seasons to decide whether to sign him, hopefully he has a breakthrough in that time.

 

[Fjordy]

I too agree he was a reach and would've rather drafted Warren, Luneau and other RHD that were available @ 41 but we must remember, Portillo and Levi were not signed yet.. I am assuming Adams wasn't 100% sold that either of them were going to sign so he drafted the "best goalie" available.

So what is the problem with choosing goalie in third or fourth round, for example, you could have taken another goalie in the 6-7th round. I'm not against the choice goalies, on the contrary, but I'm just not sure that Leinonen is a good choice at the beginning of the second round, especially what players were still on the table.

 

[Jim Bob]

It's possible to think two things concurrently. He has absolutely had a disappointing, if not fully lost, year-plus since being drafted and it's easy to hindsight cherry pick better 2nd rounders. But also goalies take forever to develop and it's usually not a linear path (many want to write off a still uncured UPL).

It feels fair to say that his conditioning and physical makeup are concerns and may be contributing to his slow development. His weight is a major outlier for a goalie his age, he looks sluggish in net, and now he's dealing with a LBI.

Obviously none of us can "write him off" meaningfully as we don't have any power in his development. We have three seasons to decide whether to sign him, hopefully he has a breakthrough in that time.

With the Sabres saying that they were contemplating taking Leinonen in the 1st round if Kulich hadn't fallen to them, it really had me wondering what they saw in him, because I never saw it.

Leinonen seems to be built for the NHL of 10 years ago or so. I have way more confidence in the Ratzlaff pick than the Leinonen one right now. And I second guessed the Leinonen pick as soon as it was made given all the high quality D still on the board at that spot.

 

[HOOats]

With the Sabres saying that they were contemplating taking Leinonen in the 1st round if Kulich hadn't fallen to them, it really had me wondering what they saw in him, because I never saw it.

Leinonen seems to be built for the NHL of 10 years ago or so. I have way more confidence in the Ratzlaff pick than the Leinonen one right now. And I second guessed the Leinonen pick as soon as it was made given all the high quality D still on the board at that spot.

I thought the pick was a headscratcher too with the D remaining, but I also felt like the FO was justified using a luxury pick on a goalie early due to our general depth.

The 2023 draft appears to have been the better draft to jump a goalie early.

I agree that Leinonen feels a bit like a 2000s model. I agree with the poster who said our front office may like smaller goalies, with Levi, Comrie, and Ratzlaff. Leinonen is an outlier and I'm also curious how the pick came to be.

 

[allsilverdreams]

Wasn't he the best Goalie in last year's draft?

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

So what is the problem with choosing goalie in third or fourth round, for example, you could have taken another goalie in the 6-7th round. I'm not against the choice goalies, on the contrary, but I'm just not sure that Leinonen is a good choice at the beginning of the second round, especially what players were still on the table.

Hey man I agree with ya. I'd much rather they took Warren and take a goalie in the later rounds. Just pointing out what Adams mind set might have been is all.

I don't agree with it but I understand why they drafted him @ 41

 

[Jim Bob]

I thought the pick was a headscratcher too with the D remaining, but I also felt like the FO was justified using a luxury pick on a goalie early due to our general depth.

The 2023 draft appears to have been the better draft to jump a goalie early.

I agree that Leinonen feels a bit like a 2000s model. I agree with the poster who said our front office may like smaller goalies, with Levi, Comrie, and Ratzlaff. Leinonen is an outlier and I'm also curious how the pick came to be.

Leinonen feels like the Sabres version of EJ Manuel where they felt that they HAD to take a position early in a year that was bad for that position.

Wasn't he the best Goalie in last year's draft?

According to what the Sabres said after the draft, they believed that was the case.

But, like most players that go in the second round, I am certain that other teams felt strongly about other goalies.

 

[Matt Ress]

It's easy to nitpick over a year later but looking at the entire 2022 draft it's really hard to come down on the decisions the Sabres made. Leinonen was their fourth draft pick of the entire draft and he fell about where he was projected. I'm not really interested in second guessing that pick an entire year later, especially in what looks to be a stellar draft in its entirety.

1 9 Matthew Savoie
1 16 Noah Ostlund
1 28 Jiri Kulich
2 41 Topias Leinonen
3 74 Viktor Neuchev
4 106 Mats Lindgren
5 134 Vsevolod Komarov
6 170 Jake Richard
6 187 Gustav Karlsson
7 202 Joel Ratkovic Berndtsson
7 211 Linus Sjodin

We can miss on Leinonen and still get 6!!!! NHLers. All a guessing game still.

They've said a few times that they draft on projection more than anything else. It's way too early for definitives but a huge goalie with some athleticism and a Finnish darling. He's never put up staggering numbers but he should get good coaching overseas.

 

[Fjordy]

I don't agree with it but I understand why they drafted him @ 41

I don't really understand why. For example, why is he better than Murashov, who was taken in the fourth round? Or the same Kokko. I hope the scouts really saw something in him, and not just the size.

 

[SundherDome]

I don't really understand why. For example, why is he better than Murashov, who was taken in the fourth round? Or the same Kokko. I hope the scouts really saw something in him, and not just the size.

I think this is a product of mock drafts and pundit articles. As a fan, I watch the pre draft shows, read the articles, lurk the message boards and also watch prospects. That said, the front offices job is to use any means necessary to find guys who are talented, fit a scheme and to try and rank where these guys may be. I believe they even said they had a first round grade on him, so if that's how they view him, I'm on board.

Side note, I do wonder how much smoke blowing occurs. Like the late risers, are teams like Buffalo who maybe want a Benson but have a defensive gap on their team pumping up the value of other dman in hopes they get taken and push a guy down to them.

 

[jc17]

Obviously it's too early to write him off completely, but if we're going to celebrate prospects' achievements it makes sense that the lack thereof also gets attention.

It's not like in the benson thread anyone's going, "well he might not be good in 5 years".

Just have to judge guys on their body of work, with the nuance that nothings set in stone

 

[Dingo44]

I don't really understand why. For example, why is he better than Murashov, who was taken in the fourth round? Or the same Kokko. I hope the scouts really saw something in him, and not just the size.

Why is Bedard better than Benson?

In this case it was because they liked Leinonen better and had a first grade rating on him.

 

[Fjordy]

I think this is a product of mock drafts and pundit articles. As a fan, I watch the pre draft shows, read the articles, lurk the message boards and also watch prospects. That said, the front offices job is to use any means necessary to find guys who are talented, fit a scheme and to try and rank where these guys may be. I believe they even said they had a first round grade on him, so if that's how they view him, I'm on board.

Side note, I do wonder how much smoke blowing occurs. Like the late risers, are teams like Buffalo who maybe want a Benson but have a defensive gap on their team pumping up the value of other dman in hopes they get taken and push a guy down to them.

Why is Bedard better than Benson?

In this case it was because they liked Leinonen better and had a first grade rating on him.

I would agree if it was a forward or a defender, but goalie is a different position. I don't know how they looked at him and followed him, or just some scout told Adams that Leinonen is big Finnish goalie, that's all. Of course, they can say that they considered him in the first round, but I wonder why, what arguments, what strengths Leinonen has, how he differs from other goalies in this draft, that he was taken so highly.

Benson was an obvious BPA, I would take him even if Simashev and Willander were still on the board, and you know how much I like Simashev. But I'm not sure Leinonen was that good and was BPA.

 

[AaronPines]

Obviously it's too early to write him off completely, but if we're going to celebrate prospects' achievements it makes sense that the lack thereof also gets attention.

It's not like in the benson thread anyone's going, "well he might not be good in 5 years".

Just have to judge guys on their body of work, with the nuance that nothings set in stone

If we're going to off celebrating achievements and guys who had stellar draft +1 years, maybe you have 7th rounder Dom DiVincentis as the only one who I think really went off. Other than that? Goalies at this age tend not to have a lot of achievements to speak of other than hockey IQ, some physical acumen and a promising skillset to work from.

I liked the Leinonen pick at the time, and I still think he's got a chance— his resume doesn't feel far off UPL's at the same age (take that for what you will, I know that's not exactly high praise). Maybe they find a way to get him over here and into the system in Jacksonville to start developing what they saw in him when they picked him so high.

I suppose I'm sort of saying that there's such an opportunity bias. Dom DiV was the eldest goalie on a team of teenagers. Leinonen struggled through injuries behind two established starters in their late 20s. He still got games as a 19 year old in a men's pro league.

If he's still playing 3rd string minutes in Finland in 6 years and all of those 2nd round d-men are playing top 4 minutes in the NHL.... then yeah this pick will sting. Until then...

 

[Zman5778]

Of course, they can say that they considered him in the first round, but I wonder why, what arguments, what strengths Leinonen has, how he differs from other goalies in this draft, that he was taken so highly.

There's a few scouting reports in the first couple pages of this thread if you're interested.

 

[Fjordy]

There's a few scouting reports in the first couple pages of this thread if you're interested.

Yes, I read, and yet I would prefer to take Murashov a little later.

 

[Zman5778]

Yes, I read, and yet I would prefer to take Murashov a little later.

You? Prefer a Russian? Never.........

 

[Djp]

I think this is a product of mock drafts and pundit articles. As a fan, I watch the pre draft shows, read the articles, lurk the message boards and also watch prospects. That said, the front offices job is to use any means necessary to find guys who are talented, fit a scheme and to try and rank where these guys may be. I believe they even said they had a first round grade on him, so if that's how they view him, I'm on board.

sure teams do many mock drafts and who might be interested in certain positions snd they have their own grade sort but they look st what others have to get posdible perceived values on players.

I don’t recall his drsft grade/ drsft projection average like mid 2nd.

Side note, I do wonder how much smoke blowing occurs. Like the late risers, are teams like Buffalo who maybe want a Benson but have a defensive gap on their team pumping up the value of other dman in hopes they get taken and push a guy down to them.

yes. Teams talk crap to pump up interest in a player and see if trade offers come.

it was clear with buffalo their top need was RD but they were not going to reach.

another factor…in the 2nd round buffalo had 2 picks..thry coukd go D, F or F then D. It can be who will be available when and position depth

Why is Bedard better than Benson?

In this case it was because they liked Leinonen better and had a first grade rating on him.

They likely had a low 1st grade n him and picked him there because of rank and what other goalies they liked in the draft Vs other positions And what’s available later.

There's a few scouting reports in the first couple pages of this thread if you're interested.

what was the prosoect ranks in terms of order and where did he fall?

if they had him outside top 100 and buffalo drsfted him thrn complain. If he was in top 60 and they (1) had him clearly the top G and felt he wasn’t there at 3rd round thrn I have no isdue drafting him then.

goalies sre difgicult to project and usually take longer to make the nhl.

 

[Fjordy]

You? Prefer a Russian? Never.........

I will never prefer a Russian player to another if he is weaker. But we do have a very good goaltending school, and it shows in the NHL now.

 

[Zman5778]

what was the prosoect ranks in terms of order and where did he fall?

if they had him outside top 100 and buffalo drsfted him thrn complain. If he was in top 60 and they (1) had him clearly the top G and felt he wasn’t there at 3rd round thrn I have no isdue drafting him then.

Leinonen and Brennan were widely considered the top 2 goalies in the 2022 draft in some order. Both were widely considered 2nd round selections, though Brennan sunk to the 4th ultimately.

It wasn't considered a good draft for goalies, and Buffalo brass has come out and said that Leinonen was by far and away their #1 goalie prospect in 2022. There was an implication that they had a low 1st/high 2nd round grade on him.