Prospect Info: G Topias Leinonen -- Selected 41st overall in 2022

[allsilverdreams]

We're already calling this kid a bust.
How is UPL doing?

 

[Diaspora]

We're already calling this kid a bust.
How is UPL doing?

He's not a bust, but by all accounts he's had a rough D+1 year.

 

[elchud]

You'd like a 2nd round draft pick to be at least a AHL+ level player, which in Leinonen's case would mean a strong #3.

It's taken J Johansson til his 9th season after being drafted to reach that level. I'd still call him a mild disappointment.

If Leinonen reaches JJ level a couple years earlier than that, it's a pretty good draft pick, but we will consider it a disappointment since they called him the best goalie in the class and a 1st round talent.

I'd start the 2-out-of-every-3 drafts thing with goalie next season.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Perhaps, although I don't understand what the problem is to take goalie in the third or fourth round, there is almost no difference. After Leinonen, RDs like Warren, Casey, Luneau and Salomonsson gone, any of them would have looked more logical. Several goalies selected in rounds 4-6 look to me equal Leinonen, so it was strange to get goalie so early.

This is exactly the point. Thanks. For a second-rounder, bad pick.

 

[SundherDome]

This is exactly the point. Thanks. For a second-rounder, bad pick.

I'm not sure how you can ascertain that it was a bad pick. What if they took Warren and he ends up like busting and Leinonen ends up being the next Vasilevski? What if Anaheim wanted Leinonen badly and had the mindset that no one would take him that high?

The morale of the story is we wont know for a long time if the pick was good or bad. We also probably will never know because we are not in team development or draft rooms.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm not sure how you can ascertain that it was a bad pick. What if they took Warren and he ends up like busting and Leinonen ends up being the next Vasilevski? What if Anaheim wanted Leinonen badly and had the mindset that no one would take him that high?

The morale of the story is we wont know for a long time if the pick was good or bad. We also probably will never know because we are not in team development or draft rooms.

How about this:

In my opinion at the time he was drafted, and nothing has happened to change my opinion, Leinonen was not a good pick at that spot and there were a bunch of D that I would have preferred.

It is certainly too soon to make definitive statements. But, it is never too soon to have opinions, especially if they are well thought out and they can be articulated well.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

I'm not sure how you can ascertain that it was a bad pick. What if they took Warren and he ends up like busting and Leinonen ends up being the next Vasilevski? What if Anaheim wanted Leinonen badly and had the mindset that no one would take him that high?

The morale of the story is we wont know for a long time if the pick was good or bad. We also probably will never know because we are not in team development or draft rooms.

Even if he somehow develops into something, there are very few if any who had him near a top 40 pick (he was #41) and the Sabres could have traded down or got him in the third. This was a panic pick based on their goalie situation at the time. Top 40 picks are not shots in the dark, they should be good NHL depth players and maybe even a high chance of breakout. I have no beef with longshot bets on goalies, not at 41 overall.

 

[SundherDome]

Even if he somehow develops into something, there are very few if any who had him near a top 40 pick (he was #41) and the Sabres could have traded down or got him in the third. This was a panic pick based on their goalie situation at the time. Top 40 picks are not shots in the dark, they should be good NHL depth players and maybe even a high chance of breakout. I have no beef with longshot bets on goalies, not at 41 overall.

How was this a panic pick? They were catering to Levi, still had Portillo, still had UPL and knowing Leinonen is at least 2-3 years from coming to N/A?

Pronman had him in the 50's in his mock drafts. So if they traded down 10 spots, what would happen if a team saw the top goalie sitting there in the 40's or 50's?

They also had a slew of picks. I have no problem taking a swing on a guy with an early second when he is deemed the best at his position and my scouting team put a 1st round grade on. It is also one of the hardest positions to draft/develop as well.

 

[toddkaz]

Bad pick at the time, most experts had him in the 4th round. We could have done so much better than this guy. Maybe he still comes around.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

How was this a panic pick? They were catering to Levi, still had Portillo, still had UPL and knowing Leinonen is at least 2-3 years from coming to N/A?

Pronman had him in the 50's in his mock drafts. So if they traded down 10 spots, what would happen if a team saw the top goalie sitting there in the 40's or 50's?

They also had a slew of picks. I have no problem taking a swing on a guy with an early second when he is deemed the best at his position and my scouting team put a 1st round grade on. It is also one of the hardest positions to draft/develop as well.

Pronman had him at 60th ...the difference between 41st and 60th is pretty massive. I say highly unlikely they make the pick if Levi or Portillo signed but the system looked empty in net. They took the best goalie they saw available. I believe that. Try and imagine Seamus Casey picked in this spot. I hope he pans out but they totally reached at 41 for him and it was because of goalie situation. They drafted one goalie over the four previous drafts, that's just not enough. Clearly they learned their lesson and ran out a 5th on Ratzlaff which is what you should do in most drafts. Goalies are bit like a lottery pick in drafting — it doesn't feel like you get much of advantage using higher draft picks on them unless they are total blue chip prospects. And sorry a 41st overall is a place where you have a good chance of landing an NHL player.

 

[Zman5778]

And sorry a 41st overall is a place where you have a good chance of landing an NHL player.

Pick 41 has a roughly 35% chance to play 100 or more NHL games. I wouldn't call that a "good chance".

So basically you hit on a 2nd rounder 1 in every 3 times. Not a good chance at all.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

 

[SundherDome]

Pronman had him at 60th ...the difference between 41st and 60th is pretty massive. I say highly unlikely they make the pick if Levi or Portillo signed but the system looked empty in net. They took the best goalie they saw available. I believe that. Try and imagine Seamus Casey picked in this spot. I hope he pans out but they totally reached at 41 for him and it was because of goalie situation. They drafted one goalie over the four previous drafts, that's just not enough. Clearly they learned their lesson and ran out a 5th on Ratzlaff which is what you should do in most drafts. Goalies are bit like a lottery pick in drafting — it doesn't feel like you get much of advantage using higher draft picks on them unless they are total blue chip prospects. And sorry a 41st overall is a place where you have a good chance of landing an NHL player.

The same Seamus Casey who is mocked the pick before Leinonen and has the same odds to make an NHL impact?

I don't know why you think the system looked empty in net when it was one of the better systems in hockey at that point and became better with the pick.

It basically came down to Buffalo sitting at 41 and a highly graded player (internally and externally) is sitting there staring at them and they don't pick again until 74. You have two, options:

Trade down and pray they don't take your guy.

Or

Take him at 41.

I don't understand how this concept isn't grasped. If they had someone rated higher than him, they would have taken them. Nothing about Adams tenure leads me to believe they are drafting for immediate need.

 

[Zman5778]

The same Seamus Casey who is mocked the pick before Leinonen and has the same odds to make an NHL impact?

I don't know why you think the system looked empty in net when it was one of the better systems in hockey at that point and became better with the pick.

It basically came down to Buffalo sitting at 41 and a highly graded player (internally and externally) is sitting there staring at them and they don't pick again until 74. You have two, options:

Trade down and pray they don't take your guy.

Or

Take him at 41.

I don't understand how this concept isn't grasped. If they had someone rated higher than him, they would have taken them. Nothing about Adams tenure leads me to believe they are drafting for immediate need.

Couple of comments on this:

1.) Neither Levi nor Portillo was signed as of the draft last year. Going into the draft, UPL was the ONLY goalie that was "in the system" formally. It was pretty empty.

2.) There are two things that I always hold for drafts in general: don't draft for need and don't be afraid to take your guy when the time comes, even if the public views it as a reach. The Leinonen pick was most certainly the Sabres taking their guy when the time came.............and also drafted for need here. This, and then comment about Neuchev being ranked "in the low first/high second" by several Sabres scouts tells me that they had quite a few guys on their board ranked together. In this case, need should be the tie-breaker. Goalie was most definitely a need.

The logic for this pick was simple, to me. Going into the draft, goalie and defense were equally barren when it comes to signed guys. In net, we had two guys that could go UFA after the 22/23 season.......and on defense, we had Komarov and Novikov, though it wasn't sure when Novikov would come over (if ever). The Sabres had Leinonen bunched up with a number of other prospects.........but saw a HUGE gap between Leinonen and the next goalie (Forton admitted this). Therefore, they took the goalie.

Obviously not the most popular pick........but no one can say it was the "wrong" pick for another 3-4 years.

 

[Husko]

Pronman had him at 60th ...the difference between 41st and 60th is pretty massive. I say highly unlikely they make the pick if Levi or Portillo signed but the system looked empty in net. They took the best goalie they saw available. I believe that. Try and imagine Seamus Casey picked in this spot. I hope he pans out but they totally reached at 41 for him and it was because of goalie situation. They drafted one goalie over the four previous drafts, that's just not enough. Clearly they learned their lesson and ran out a 5th on Ratzlaff which is what you should do in most drafts. Goalies are bit like a lottery pick in drafting — it doesn't feel like you get much of advantage using higher draft picks on them unless they are total blue chip prospects. And sorry a 41st overall is a place where you have a good chance of landing an NHL player.

It is?

 

[KiwiGriff]

I'd start the 2-out-of-every-3 drafts thing with goalie next season.

This!

 

[HOOats]

I'd start the 2-out-of-every-3 drafts thing with goalie next season.

Meaning skip next year since we've taken a goalie each of the last two drafts? I'm more in the "take three every four years" camp. A late round Euro goalie feels more likely to hit than a skater.

 

[Team Cozens]

Meaning skip next year since we've taken a goalie each of the last two drafts? I'm more in the "take three every four years" camp. A late round Euro goalie feels more likely to hit than a skater.

Russia is a goalie factory and they can take years to come over. I would draft one every other year just from Russia alone.

 

[toddkaz]

Perhaps, although I don't understand what the problem is to take goalie in the third or fourth round, there is almost no difference. After Leinonen, RDs like Warren, Casey, Luneau and Salomonsson gone, any of them would have looked more logical. Several goalies selected in rounds 4-6 look to me equal Leinonen, so it was strange to get goalie so early.

This hit it spot on. So many better prospects in the 2nd round and there are lots of goalie prospects that you can draft as a project in rounds 4-6.

 

[Fjordy]

Russia is a goalie factory and they can take years to come over. I would draft one every other year just from Russia alone.

Russia is a goalie factory and they can take years to come over. I would draft one every other year just from Russia alone.

They could have taken Murashov in the fourth round, and he is probably even better than Leinonen, and in the second round one of Warren, Casey and Luneau for example.

 

[HOOats]

Man, this thread is getting repetitive. Man, this thread is getting repetitive.

Lesson learned for our FO: don't even potentially miss on one draft pick out of 25 in three years.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Pick 41 has a roughly 35% chance to play 100 or more NHL games. I wouldn't call that a "good chance".

So basically you hit on a 2nd rounder 1 in every 3 times. Not a good chance at all.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

If people want to believe all 2nd round picks from 33 to 64 have the same value, not point arguing. It may be as pronounced as dropping from say 5th to 25 but it matters. At 41 that was a quality spot.

 

[elchud]

Meaning skip next year since we've taken a goalie each of the last two drafts? I'm more in the "take three every four years" camp. A late round Euro goalie feels more likely to hit than a skater.

I'd take a goalie next year.

We are back in 7-draft-picks a year land, unless we start trading surplus prospects for more draft picks.

I think 1 out of 10 picks should be a goalie. 6F 3D 1G as a breakdown. So with 21 picks in 3 years, 2 goalies.

 

[Bendium]

It basically came down to Buffalo sitting at 41 and a highly graded player (internally and externally) is sitting there staring at them and they don't pick again until 74. You have two, options:

Trade down and pray they don't take your guy.

Or

Take him at 41.

I don't understand how this concept isn't grasped. If they had someone rated higher than him, they would have taken them. Nothing about Adams tenure leads me to believe they are drafting for immediate need.

I think that since the beginning of KA tenure, the success of the Bills management team has been applied as much as possible to the Sabres, and for good reason. One of those (agree with it or not) is that they prefer to spend assets to move up, or even take a guy a little higher in the draft, in order to get the guy they want, instead of the best that falls to them. I think they wanted a goalie in the draft. I think they only had one that their scouting and analytics group had a decent grade on. They didn't think he would be there at 74, so they took him at 41. I think they would do it again. Its a good philosophy if your right about the pick more often than not. We will see.

 

[thelimit39]

Some tough critics here. Using the stock market as a metaphor, some of you are salty over a million dollar speculative investment down 20 percent, when the entire fifty million dollar portfolio has doubled.

 

[Butt Ox]

Leinonen acrosst my big brass bed