G Sebastian Cossa (2021, 15th, DET)

[Kingpin794]

Because any goalie prospect that has any NHL starter potential is pretty much always an above average AHL goalie by their 2nd pro season and could even handle their own at the NHL level.

Dustin Wolf: AHL 55 GP 2.09 GAA 0.932 SV% / NHL 1 GP 1.00 GAA 0.958 SV%
Arturs Silovs: AHL 44 GP 2.44 GAA 0.909 SV% / NHL 5 GP 2.75 GAA 0.908 SV%

Jesper Wallstedt has been an above average AHL goalie in his 1st pro season at 20.
Yaroslav Askarov has been an above average AHL goalie in his 1st pro season at 21.
Lucas Dostal was an elite AHL goalie with NHL games in his 1st pro season at 21.
Pyotr Kochetkov was an elite AHL goalie with NHL games in his 1st pro season at 22.

I don't believe there is a single goalie in the AHL last season that has played their 1st or 2nd pro season at 18-22 that is considered to have NHL starter potential outside of these 6 guys.

There is only a single starting goalie in the NHL today that wasnt an above average AHLer or better at 21 years old. That is Stuart Skinner. Even the worst starting goalie that qualifies under these parameters was an above average AHL goalie (Mrazek)

1/20ish NHL starters have overcome being average or worse in their 21 year old season in the AHL. That odds of Cossa doubling the success rate is slim to none if he doesnt bounce back this year.

Depending on what you mean by like 40 games, if Cossa plays 40 games and posts a 2.75 GAA and a 0.910 SV% in the AHL this year, that would be elite AHL numbers. Last season, only 14 goalies had a GAA of 2.75 or below and a sv% of 0.910 or above. Add in 40+ GP and theres only 5 goalies that meet that requirement. Drop it to 35+GP and theres only 9 goalies to have accomplished that.

So you expect Cossa to post top 5-10 goalie statistics in the AHL yet think the poster wanting above average is too much?

All the guys you listed besides Wolf had pro games under their belt before coming over to the AHL. Of course they play well sooner.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Last year among guys who played at least 30 games, 0.910 would have been good for 15th. 2.75 would be good for 17th. So pretty well the middle. Not top 5-10.

Maybe i failed math but since when did 40 = 30? you said like 40 games. It's obvious you're trying to backtrack otherwise you would have said like 30 games. I showed how even at 35 games (which drops to being below 50% gp on the season) thats top 10 goalie stats.

Even with your new found parameters, Being top 15-17 is still a well above average AHL goalie. There were 42 goalies that qualify for awards play in the AHL last season. The cuttoff was 26 games played. Since you think a 10 game difference isnt much, there were 63 goalies to play 20+ games. Being top 15-17 out of 63 isnt elite? That would likely put him in the top 25% of goalies in the AHL.

Let me guess, next you'll say it was implied that you meant those numbers compared to other AHL starters only?

 

[Canuck Luck]

All the guys you listed besides Wolf had pro games under their belt before coming over to the AHL. Of course they play well sooner.

Silovs played in the Latvian Hockey Higher league. That is much lower level of hockey than the CHL.

Askarov played 16 games in the KHL over 3 years. He also only played in 51 games in those 3 years. Only playing about 17 games a year should negate the fact he played about 5 games a year of pro hockey.

Similar situation with Kochetkov to Askarov with more pro games but similar amounts of total games.

Overall even if they have pro European league games at whatever league level, that doesn't indicate a higher chance to succeed in the AHL. Look at most of the goalies that go from those leagues over to the AHL. Most struggle and are ECHL level goalies. The overwhelming majority head right back to their Euro leagues right after 1-3 years especially the 25+ goalies. For CHL to AHL goalies.

I already showed how theres only 1 NHL starting goalie. I'd imagine even if you include backups theres maybe 10-15 tops that didnt post above average AHL numbers by their 21 yr old season in the AHL. Idk why you are arguing the fact for him to have NHL potential. he doesn't need above average stats this year. At best if he doesn't, history shows the most likely career path forward is a journeyman backup

The only goalie I can think of to have their pro careers start in the ECHL and go on to have a successful NHL career is Philip Grubauer. Even he had elite AHL numbers in his 2nd pro season and got a couple NHL games that season.

 

[raymond23]

Not feeling great about his post draft progression but he's only 20 years old and has insane tools

 

[PanniniClaus]

Silovs played in the Latvian Hockey Higher league. That is much lower level of hockey than the CHL.

Askarov played 16 games in the KHL over 3 years. He also only played in 51 games in those 3 years. Only playing about 17 games a year should negate the fact he played about 5 games a year of pro hockey.

Similar situation with Kochetkov to Askarov with more pro games but similar amounts of total games.

Overall even if they have pro European league games at whatever league level, that doesn't indicate a higher chance to succeed in the AHL. Look at most of the goalies that go from those leagues over to the AHL. Most struggle and are ECHL level goalies. The overwhelming majority head right back to their Euro leagues right after 1-3 years especially the 25+ goalies. For CHL to AHL goalies.

I already showed how theres only 1 NHL starting goalie. I'd imagine even if you include backups theres maybe 10-15 tops that didnt post above average AHL numbers by their 21 yr old season in the AHL. Idk why you are arguing the fact for him to have NHL potential. he doesn't need above average stats this year. At best if he doesn't, history shows the most likely career path forward is a journeyman backup

The only goalie I can think of to have their pro careers start in the ECHL and go on to have a successful NHL career is Philip Grubauer. Even he had elite AHL numbers in his 2nd pro season and got a couple NHL games that season.

Off the hop... Tomas Vokoun, John Quick.. and Jordan Binnington without doing an ounce of homework.

 

[LeProspector]

Bust

 

[RedWingzz]

That was a rough prospect tournament for sure. It was hard to watch honestly, it was cringeworthy. He has no confidence at the moment, and can't seem to make a save.

The saving grace here is that it was a borderline useless tournament, where the players have never played together, so there's no system or structure whatsoever. I'm still hopeful that he can somehow figure it out, and maybe playing behind NHL defencemen and NHL systems will help him find his game. At this point though, it's not looking optimistic. Goalies sometimes don't make it full time until they are 23 or so, so there's still an outside chance he develops into a quality goalie, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Rob Brown]

That was a rough prospect tournament for sure. It was hard to watch honestly, it was cringeworthy. He has no confidence at the moment, and can't seem to make a save.

The saving grace here is that it was a borderline useless tournament, where the players have never played together, so there's no system or structure whatsoever. I'm still hopeful that he can somehow figure it out, and maybe playing behind NHL defencemen and NHL systems will help him find his game. At this point though, it's not looking optimistic. Goalies sometimes don't make it full time until they are 23 or so, so there's still an outside chance he develops into a quality goalie, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Bit off topic - I'm no goalie expert, but I feel like tournaments like this where there are no real systems or structures or chemistry between players would benefit the goalies, no? I get that defensively the teams will be weaker than usual and goalies may be left out to dry more, but the same could be said for the opposing team's offense.

 

[AnThGrt]

Off the hop... Tomas Vokoun, John Quick.. and Jordan Binnington without doing an ounce of homework.

Last yr cup winner Adin Hill, Tim. Thomas, Martin Jones, Braden Holtby, David Aebischer, Olaf Kolzig, and surely missing some still. I think something like 8 of the last 20 cup winners played ECHL nearly 50%

 

[Pavels Dog]

I mean where you are drafted kind of sticks with you lol you draft a goalie at 15OA the expectations naturally are going to be extremely high. Trying to revise history like that isn’t the case is just silly. You picked a dud at 15 most likely. It isn’t the end of the world it happens.

He was drafted fairly high and ahead of another highly touted goalie prospect who played quite well in the AHL last year. Cossa was clearly highly regarded and was seen as a top goalie prospect given that he was drafted high. Still early on in his career especially as a goalie, but not sure why you seem to be offended that people think he isn't trending well.

He still isn't really overrated imo. He was ranked 167th on The Athletic's most recent top U23 players list, the last goalie and second to last player ranked. I don't think that's terribly high, he's still young, has great tools and really stepped up his game in the second half last season. Where would you have him ranked?

 

[TheBeastCoast]

He still isn't really overrated imo. He was ranked 167th on The Athletic's most recent top U23 players list, the last goalie and second to last player ranked. I don't think that's terribly high, he's still young, has great tools and really stepped up his game in the second half last season. Where would you have him ranked?

Right but his play is earning him his fall down prospect lists. That is like saying Zadina wasn't highly regarded because he busted after the fact. If a goalie gets taken at 15OA they are objectively going to be hopes of that goalie turning into a starter/franchise level goalie for your team....there should be anyways. Cossa just hasn't stopped enough pucks to justify how highly regarded he was. And yes while goalies do typically develop slower, I still think you want them showing the ability to stop pucks at the level they are developing at.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Right but his play is earning him his fall down prospect lists. That is like saying Zadina wasn't highly regarded because he busted after the fact.

Yeah but my response was to a poster saying he seems overrated. Present tense.

 

[Rob Brown]

Yeah but my response was to a poster saying he seems overrated. Present tense.

You responded to me - I never said he was overrated. I said he's not trending in the right direction.

 

[izlez]

Some added context to how he is trending:

Yes, these are numbers from the ECHL
No, they don't cover the whole season. This is the last version I can find from the person that was nice enough to track them

 

[deca guard]

IVE extreme confidence that the staff yzergod has built will get cossa straightend out

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

HUGE AHL season debut tonight: 41 saves on 43 shots for the W.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Another very good game for Cossa in his 2nd start.

31 saves on 33 shots.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Great start for him. Consistency will be key but so far exactly what you want to see.

 

[LeProspector]

Detroit is praying he pans out.

 

[Snuggs]

Detroit is praying he pans out.

Well yeah... lol.

If he did bust, idk, whatever just draft another goalie. They should be drafting one every year in the later rounds anyways and stashing them somewhere.

Never liked picking Cossa ahead of Jesper Wallstedt though. Even when the trade was made it looked like Yzerman moved up for Jesper Wallstedt not Cossa especailly being a Swed and the Super scout in Hakan Andersson in the back yard of Wallstedt... An, throughout the draft and after, Wallstedt's looked more impressive, and I think they're the same age.

 

[LeProspector]

Well yeah... lol.

If he did bust, idk, whatever just draft another goalie. They should be drafting one every year in the later rounds anyways and stashing them somewhere.

Never liked picking Cossa ahead of Jesper Wallstedt though. Even when the trade was made it looked like Yzerman moved up for Jesper Wallstedt not Cossa especailly being a Swed and the Super scout in Hakan Andersson in the back yard of Wallstedt... An, throughout the draft and after, Wallstedt's looked more impressive, and I think they're the same age.

I was just looking in their goaltending system and other than Cossa, things looks bleak unless you think Husso is the long term starter, and I don’t.

 

[Realgud]

I was just looking in their goaltending system and other than Cossa, things looks bleak unless you think Husso is the long term starter, and I don’t.

Augustine

 

[LeProspector]

Augustine

He hasn‘t impressed me much, but I’ll keep that name in mind moving forward.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Detroit is praying he pans out.

I'm 100% positive all teams pray their drafted prospects pan out..

I'd like to hear the debate in which any sports franchise said they're hoping their prospects bust..

 

[DuklaNation]

I'm 100% positive all teams pray their drafted prospects pan out..

I'd like to hear the debate in which any sports franchise said they're hoping their prospects bust..

I'm 100% positive you shouldn't take everything so literally.