Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part VI: Someone Get Gorton A Vesey Button.

[Off Sides]

That all said, PB is right that the Rangers really have to find some way to acquire an elite talent. Have some prospect exceed all expectations in their development, suck bad enough this year to get a top pick, etc. They could be building a good core right now but one way or another that elite piece needs to be added.

I agree, which is why I think they need as many picks as possible, the earlier in the draft the better. If they happen to win a lottery that is great, but if not they are going to have to draft those players who should have been drafted much earlier with later picks, having more picks gives them a better chance at that.

That is mostly going to be based on luck, scouting and them actually making the trades to put themselves in that position, and even then it may not work out.

All that leads me to believe this rebuild will take longer to produce those players. They have several assets to sell off before their contracts run out over the next 3-4 trade deadlines. Maximizing the chances of the return from them becoming those elite level players is going to be key.

The contingency plan I assume is to package some of that non elite level stuff up and trade it in a Nash like trade plus add some UFAs. Not that I believe that plan will work but I have a feeling should none of what they draft/develop turn into that elite stuff, it kind of leaves them with limited options.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It's actually a description of reality.

The question was are we better off than teams like Buffalo and Edmonton - I'd argue yes we are since they've had their elite players for years and have made less than nothing of themselves over that time. NYR has accomplished more without an elite player than either of those teams has with an elite player - you can literally add their accomplishments with Eichel and McDavid together and weigh them against just NYR without any elite players and NYR have accomplished tons more. Their ELCs are totally burned and they barely have a handful of playoff games to show for it between both teams. Again, the point is to win games and eventually a championship, not to waste an elite player's career and call that a success.

Yes, I absolutely think Edmonton is unlikely to win a cup in the next 5 years. They've had McDavid for multiple years now and have done literally nothing of merit as a team. What do you think is going to suddenly change to catapult them to a cup? Especially now that their best players are going to be paid very handsomely.

Why is the question whether we are better than those teams? The question is who is best positioned with rebuilding. Being better doesn't necessarily equal being positioned better with a rebuild.

McDavid has won as many playoff series as we have since entering the league, so before you start signing the praises of our organization and management compared to Edmonton's, maybe you should consider what you are saying.

What do I think? I think that it doesn't matter how good or bad Chiarelli is towards the question of whether or not Edmonton will win a Cup nor does it matter about the organization. People rag on their organization, but then conveniently leave out that the Oilers were the league's last dynasty. Chiarelli only has to make some good decisions, which he obviously has done in the past for Edmonton. He doesn't need to make a lot of really good decisions or even make more good decisions than bad decisions. I think Edmonton is actually really close to being a Cup contender. They have two areas to improve, and both should easily improve in the next 2-3 years.

 

[nrf83]

how is hayes and one of our 50 lefty d prospects for trouba not a thing that's happened yet?

why do we want Trouba? He's going to want $8miil for 6 and he only plays 50 games a year. He's always injured, no thanks

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I don't see why....Neither of them should have been here in the first place, much less captain.

Boyle wore a letter here, and Yandle had one in Arizona and got one right away in Florida. Your opinion on whether they should’ve been here or not doesn’t mean they’re not good leaders

 

[haveandare]

Why is the question whether we are better than those teams? The question is who is best positioned with rebuilding. Being better doesn't necessarily equal being positioned better with a rebuild.

McDavid has won as many playoff series as we have since entering the league, so before you start signing the praises of our organization and management compared to Edmonton's, maybe you should consider what you are saying.

What do I think? I think that it doesn't matter how good or bad Chiarelli is towards the question of whether or not Edmonton will win a Cup nor does it matter about the organization. People rag on their organization, but then conveniently leave out that the Oilers were the league's last dynasty. Chiarelli only has to make some good decisions, which he obviously has done in the past for Edmonton. He doesn't need to make a lot of really good decisions or even make more good decisions than bad decisions. I think Edmonton is actually really close to being a Cup contender. They have two areas to improve, and both should easily improve in the next 2-3 years.

My mistake, I meant the question is which team is better off in terms of their rebuild.

What the Oilers did decades ago in an entirely different league isn't relevant at all to their current rebuild. Yes, if Chia suddenly becomes drastically better than he's been they will be a better team. If Kreider suddenly scores 200 points, NYR will be better, too. Neither is going to happen. I don't see how you can possibly say a team that missed the wild card by 17 points is actually really close to being a cup contender. Again, the actual outcome of the games determines this stuff, not how good a single player of theirs is. He has been great and they've been terrible none the less.

 

[Fvital92]

Rutherford did a terrible job of building the Pittsburgh teams that won two Stanley Cups for him. Crosby and Malkin didn't need help.

Yeah, it's not like their best line was Bonino, Hagelin and Kessel in one of those years... Murray playing out of his mind also didn't happen at all...
There is not a magical formula to win a Stanley Cup, if there was one don't you think more than 3 teams would have won in the last 10 years? Well, there is Washington now.
Hockey is a crapshoot. Ottawa, this horrible franchise, almost went to the Stanley Cup. Vegas seemed like a juggernaut and lost to the Capitals that was like the 4th or 5th favorite to win the east.
We could have won the SC against the Kings, and the year we lost to TB in CF with half of the team injuried.

Lets wait and see what will become of our prospects before we shit on the front office, it's not we are in hurry to compete.

 

[Deleted member 23124]

Boyle wore a letter here, and Yandle had one in Arizona and got one right away in Florida. Your opinion on whether they should’ve been here or not doesn’t mean they’re not good leaders

Didn't realize Boyle had a letter here (guess it's not a total surprise as he was an AV guy).

I suspect Yandle's in AZ was by default.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Zucker getting 5.5x5 probably means Hayes has to be closer to 5m on a 5 year deal, no?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Rutherford did a terrible job of building the Pittsburgh teams that won two Stanley Cups for him. Crosby and Malkin didn't need help.

Rutherford has done just fine.

Shero is the one who couldn't get more than 1 out of the prime of those guys careers.

 

[JimmyG89]

that's a classy response.

anywayyyyyyy how is trouba for hayes and a solid prospect a bad offer? their center depth is far from great after losing stastny. they are in win now mode not looking just for picks prospects. I think Hayes is extremely underrated here. and trouba probably overrated.

It's as direct as it needed to be.

There are about 10 reasons that they wouldn't trade Trouba for Hayes and a LHD prospect, but I don't need to outline all 10 of them to get my point across.

1. Behind Trouba, Buff, and Myers is NOTHING on the RHD side. A 20 yo first year pro is all they have signed in the organization that would have a shot at sniffing the NHL. They would have to dip into free agency to fill the void, and there are some okay options, but not great.

2. Hayes is going to get a solid paycheck, whether long term or not. You're looking at 4M+ on a 1 year deal, maybe even north of 5M once you get to a longer deal (3+ years). You're now asking a team that is a budget team, to pay Hayes that money, sign a RHD to replace Trouba and also shell out money for Josh Morrissey. Let's not even mention Blake Wheeler needs a new deal for 7/1/19.

3. Their C depth is good: Scheifele is a top C in the league, Little is a good middle 6 center, followed by the likes of Adam Lowry, Jack Roslovic, and Nick Petan, who was in the minor most of last year because there was no room. Now, add Hayes on top of those guys? I don't see it. Roslovic is going to be their 2C/3C this season, on an ELC.

4. Myers is an UFA next season. You shave his salary off the team and you can add some of it to Trouba. Also, if you trade Trouba and lose Myers next June, you're down to a 34 year old Big Buff and not much else on the right side.

5. Their LHD are actually decent. Morrissey is a young stud. Kulikov was good for them last year. Chiarot wasn't bad and they have Niku and Stanley coming up through their system. Niku is really good. Stanley has questions, but it's a decent group.

Trouba is going to sign a deal with the next summer that will pay him handsomely, between 8-9 million. We're not going to be in a position that we should be paying for that. We should be developing our current talent. As great as Trouba is, we're not in a spot to make a move for him and Winnipeg sure isn't, and they won't do it for Hayes and a LHD.

 

[NYR]

People keep ragging on Edmonton but am I the only one that seems to think at some point in the very near future they’re just going to flip a switch and bring the heat?

I know it’s taking a longer than expected to get things going but look at their roster.
The NYR have a LOOOONNG way to go to even breath the same air and I don’t see things going any better until a change in management is made.

EDM may not be the most desirable location or have the most money but they know their hockey up there and aren’t as stupid as some like to think..

Once they figure it out, they’re going to be a tough team for anyone to beat IMO.

But back to Mika being the teams best player with his huge 13 even strength goals

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

My mistake, I meant the question is which team is better off in terms of their rebuild.

What the Oilers did decades ago in an entirely different league isn't relevant at all to their current rebuild. Yes, if Chia suddenly becomes drastically better than he's been they will be a better team. If Kreider suddenly scores 200 points, NYR will be better, too. Neither is going to happen. I don't see how you can possibly say a team that missed the wild card by 17 points is actually really close to being a cup contender. Again, the actual outcome of the games determines this stuff, not how good a single player of theirs is. He has been great and they've been terrible none the less.

I can say it because the picture you've painted is one that is meant to intentionally mislead.

I mentioned nothing about Chiarelli being good or Kreider scoring 200 points. Those were things you mentioned. I was very clear about what my opinion is of where Edmonton needs to improve. They were much improved two years ago, and pretty close to what one would consider a Cup contender.

 

[Edge]

People keep ragging on Edmonton but am I the only one that seems to think at some point in the very near future they’re just going to flip a switch and bring the heat?

I know it’s taking a longer than expected to get things going but look at their roster.
The NYR have a LOOOONNG way to go to even breath the same air and I don’t see things going any better until a change in management is made.

EDM may not be the most desirable location or have the most money but they know their hockey up there and aren’t as stupid as some like to think..

Once they figure it out, they’re going to be a tough team for anyone to beat IMO.

But back to Mika being the teams best player with his huge 13 even strength goals

I don't know, at some point it's more about stumbling into a pot of gold more than strategically finding it. They've been on this loop for about a decade now.

The challenge for the Oilers isn't a matter of having their first round picks pan out, even if that's what garners the most attention based on the number of top 10 picks they've had since 2007.

The challenge is being able to produce depth with their second round picks and beyond.

The Oilers have not had a pick after the first round play more than 240 NHL games since Tobias Rieder in 2011, and he did so for Arizona and not Edmonton. Additionally, he's only the second non first round pick to do so since 2006!

So that's a grand total of two non-first round picks who played the equivalent of three full NHL seasons over 13 NHL drafts! And that's to say nothing about finding a guy who actually had a decent impact at the NHL level. Maybe Brodziak in 2003? Stoll and Greene in 2002?

That's probably one of the biggest things killing the Oilers that we don't really spend a lot of time discussing.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yeah, it's not like their best line was Bonino, Hagelin and Kessel in one of those years... Murray playing out of his mind also didn't happen at all...
There is not a magical formula to win a Stanley Cup, if there was one don't you think more than 3 teams would have won in the last 10 years? Well, there is Washington now.
Hockey is a crapshoot. Ottawa, this horrible franchise, almost went to the Stanley Cup. Vegas seemed like a juggernaut and lost to the Capitals that was like the 4th or 5th favorite to win the east.
We could have won the SC against the Kings, and the year we lost to TB in CF with half of the team injuried.

Lets wait and see what will become of our prospects before we **** on the front office, it's not we are in hurry to compete.

Their best line was not Bonino, Hagelin, Kessel. Their best line was whatever line Crosby was on, and their second line was whatever line Malkin was on. They had some other good players besides those two, but we both know that they aren't getting close to winning the Stanley Cup without Crosby and Malkin. If they didn't have those players and they built their team the way they did, they would be at the front of the line trying to acquire the next Crosby and Malkin.

Ranger fans always try to convince themselves that whatever applies for their team is something they all of a sudden have to defend, even if its not really defensible. You are making an argument that is not, at all, backed up by facts. Lets take the last 10 seasons. 3 for Pittsburgh with Crosby and Malkin, 3 for Chicago with Toews and Kane, 2 for LA with Doughty and Kopitar, 1 for Washington with Ovechkin and Backstrom, and then one for Boston. Boston is the only team of that bunch that did not have multiple high picks from their core turn into their star players. And with the exception of Kopitar who went 11th, all of those players were top 5 picks. A number of them were first overall picks. Boston is the outlier. Why are we shooting for being the outlier? Outlier Cup winners happen, but using the last 10 years, there's a 10% chance of the Cup winner being an outlier team with how they were built.

There is a clear formula. Your argument about parity doesn't hold water. Ottawa did not win the Cup, didn't didn't either, neither did we. The teams with the elite talents picked at the top of the draft did. It happens just about every year in the NHL that the Stanley Cup winner has elite talent that they drafted at the top of the draft. How is this not obvious? Why do our fans try to accept what is statistically a terrible strategy?

 

[haveandare]

I can say it because the picture you've painted is one that is meant to intentionally mislead.

I mentioned nothing about Chiarelli being good or Kreider scoring 200 points. Those were things you mentioned. I was very clear about what my opinion is of where Edmonton needs to improve. They were much improved two years ago, and pretty close to what one would consider a Cup contender.

"Chiarelli only has to make some good decisions, which he obviously has done in the past for Edmonton."

 

[Inferno]

I don't know, at some point it's more about stumbling into a pot of gold more than strategically finding it. They've been on this loop for about a decade now.

The challenge for the Oilers isn't a matter of having their first round picks pan out, even if that's what garners the most attention based on the number of top 10 picks they've had since 2007.

The challenge is being able to produce depth with their second round picks and beyond.

The Oilers have not had a pick after the first round play more than 240 NHL games since Tobias Rieder in 2011, and he did so for Arizona and not Edmonton. Additionally, he's only the second non first round pick to do so since 2006!

So that's a grand total of two non-first round picks who played the equivalent of three full NHL seasons over 13 NHL drafts! And that's to say nothing about finding a guy who actually had a decent impact at the NHL level. Maybe Brodziak in 2003? Stoll and Greene in 2002?

That's probably one of the biggest things killing the Oilers that we don't really spend a lot of time discussing.

Beat me to it

 

[haveandare]

People keep ragging on Edmonton but am I the only one that seems to think at some point in the very near future they’re just going to flip a switch and bring the heat?

I know it’s taking a longer than expected to get things going but look at their roster.
The NYR have a LOOOONNG way to go to even breath the same air and I don’t see things going any better until a change in management is made.

EDM may not be the most desirable location or have the most money but they know their hockey up there and aren’t as stupid as some like to think..

Once they figure it out, they’re going to be a tough team for anyone to beat IMO.

But back to Mika being the teams best player with his huge 13 even strength goals

You can say "once they figure it out they'll be good" for almost every team in the league.

They wasted the entire ELCs of their best players. It's not going to get easier to build a team around them as they make more money.

And lol to the idea that NYR need to change management to be good but the Oilers with arguably the worst management in the league are on another level.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

That all said, PB is right that the Rangers really have to find some way to acquire an elite talent. Have some prospect exceed all expectations in their development, suck bad enough this year to get a top pick, etc. They could be building a good core right now but one way or another that elite piece needs to be added.

We need to be bad this year. Its pretty much a requirement. I saw someone say the other day that we might not actually be that bad. That would hurt our rebuild. Finishing 5 points out of a playoff spot does nothing for us. We need to draft elite talents.

Hopefully that happens, and then we sign one of the elite players on the free agent market, whether thats Seguin, Karlsson, Panarin. We could even wait a year further, be bad for two more years, draft again at the top of the draft, and then try to become a playoff team.

 

[NYR]

I don't know, at some point it's more about stumbling into a pot of gold more than strategically finding it. They've been on this loop for about a decade now.

The challenge for the Oilers isn't a matter of having their first round picks pan out, even if that's what garners the most attention based on the number of top 10 picks they've had since 2007.

The challenge is being able to produce depth with their second round picks and beyond.

The Oilers have not had a pick after the first round play more than 240 NHL games since Tobias Rieder in 2011, and he did so for Arizona and not Edmonton. Additionally, he's only the second non first round pick to do so since 2006!

So that's a grand total of two non-first round picks who played the equivalent of three full NHL seasons over 13 NHL drafts! And that's to say nothing about finding a guy who actually had a decent impact at the NHL level. Maybe Brodziak in 2003? Stoll and Greene in 2002?

That's probably one of the biggest things killing the Oilers that we don't really spend a lot of time discussing.

Yeah, I get that they've had/have management issues but looking at their roster as currently constructed today and moving forward, how do you think they'd fare if they were to insert someone like a Laviolette?
Point being that I see them as being a few tweaks away and as opposed to a few years.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

"Chiarelli only has to make some good decisions, which he obviously has done in the past for Edmonton."

Sorry if that was not clear. I meant that I did not state anywhere that Chiarelli is good or has to become better. You did that. You had a hypothetical about Chiarelli becoming better.

I said that Chiarelli only needs to make a couple of good decisions in areas of need. He could still remain a bad GM, and Edmonton could be a good team. We need to completely bring through a new generation of Rangers. The Oilers are a few small pieces away from being a contender.

 

[NYR]

You can say "once they figure it out they'll be good" for almost every team in the league.

They wasted the entire ELCs of their best players. It's not going to get easier to build a team around them as they make more money.

And lol to the idea that NYR need to change management to be good but the Oilers with arguably the worst management in the league are on another level.

We'll see how long that "lol" lasts before the whining begins.
JG is making all the right moves in order to tank IMO so I have to "lol" at anything that might suggest that this isn't a "long term" rebuild especially after pointing the finger at Edm and Buffalo.

 

[mrmovies779]

Sorry if that was not clear. I meant that I did not state anywhere that Chiarelli is good or has to become better. You did that. You had a hypothetical about Chiarelli becoming better.

I said that Chiarelli only needs to make a couple of good decisions in areas of need. He could still remain a bad GM, and Edmonton could be a good team. We need to completely bring through a new generation of Rangers. The Oilers are a few small pieces away from being a contender.

What good decisions has he made at all?He had McDavid fall into his lap.He traded Hall for Larson...ill repeat that again-he traded Hall for Larson.Signed Lucic to that miserable contract.And you think this guy has the ability to make a few smart moves and turn them into a Cup contender?

 

[silverfish]

I don't know, at some point it's more about stumbling into a pot of gold more than strategically finding it. They've been on this loop for about a decade now.

The challenge for the Oilers isn't a matter of having their first round picks pan out, even if that's what garners the most attention based on the number of top 10 picks they've had since 2007.

The challenge is being able to produce depth with their second round picks and beyond.

The Oilers have not had a pick after the first round play more than 240 NHL games since Tobias Rieder in 2011, and he did so for Arizona and not Edmonton. Additionally, he's only the second non first round pick to do so since 2006!

So that's a grand total of two non-first round picks who played the equivalent of three full NHL seasons over 13 NHL drafts! And that's to say nothing about finding a guy who actually had a decent impact at the NHL level. Maybe Brodziak in 2003? Stoll and Greene in 2002?

That's probably one of the biggest things killing the Oilers that we don't really spend a lot of time discussing.

Just because it's not being discussed here doesn't mean it's not being discussed.

Take a look in general at the success of picks drafted early in the 2nd round (first five picks, let's say). There's a reason that teams at the bottom of the standings are at the bottom of the standings.

 

[aufheben]

?

For years after their first cup win, the Pens couldn't get back over the hump despite having Crosby and Malkin precisely because their GM couldn't put a decent team around them...they were missing the parts that they needed.

Rutherford got a coach that worked well with the team and brought in Kessel, some real solid depth guys like Hagelin, and ultimately built a better support around Crosby and Malkin than they'd had for years before that. And yeah they won.

Yes you don't have to make the perfect roster when you have some superstars to take up the slack but the Pens definitely needed at least some decent support for those guys to do it and ultimately that's where Chiarelli has been failing so far when it comes to the Oilers

Yeah, what? He did a fantastic job with their roster.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What good decisions has he made at all?He had McDavid fall into his lap.He traded Hall for Larson...ill repeat that again-he traded Hall for Larson.Signed Lucic to that miserable contract.And you think this guy has the ability to make a few smart moves and turn them into a Cup contender?

You are arguing against yourself if you are going to start mentioning bad decisions he's made.

He traded nothing for Talbot and outside of Puljujarvi he's drafted pretty well the last couple of years. Also, I'm not even sure Puljujarvi was a bad pick at #4. Thats more on the player than the team. The kid hasn't developed.