Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part II - Who is left?

[Edge]

I don't think you understand what the "full value" of Karlsson is via trade.

You'd be talking, Chytil, Andersson, 2019 1st, 2020 2nd, 2019 3rd, and a replacement roster player

I think there's this assumption that we're getting EK and Ryan's bad contract for something like Hayes, ADA, Spooner, and maybe a 2020 first.

You're looking at one of Andersson or Chtyil, probably one of Hajek, Howden or someone on that level, a 2019 first and a roster player or mid range prospect.

I don't think we can go in with the assumption that we're adding EK to all things we have no intention of trading. It WILL cost you some of what you don't want to lose.

 

[Hire Sather]

Again, shaping it up for EK65 to be the bad guy for turning down $80M. Bush league by Ottawa.

Team has the right to let the fans know they tried.

 

[Edge]

Staple is better than all of our guys combined.

Okay, now you're just mixing the moonshine with pixie dust too.

Just razzing you a bit.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think there's this assumption that we're getting EK and Ryan's bad contract for something like Hayes, ADA, Spooner, and maybe a 2020 first.

You're looking at one of Andersson or Chtyil, probably one of Hajek, Howden or someone on that level, a 2019 first and a roster player or mid range prospect.

I don't think we can go in with the assumption that we're adding EK to all things we have no intention of trading. It WILL cost you some of what you don't want to lose.

And in that case, I'll pass. I think Gorton just called to see what was possible without breaking down the rebuild we are in. And walked away when he found out it would cost one of our building blocks.

 

[duhmetreE]

I think there's this assumption that we're getting EK and Ryan's bad contract for something like Hayes, ADA, Spooner, and maybe a 2020 first.

You're looking at one of Andersson or Chtyil, probably one of Hajek, Howden or someone on that level, a 2019 first and a roster player or mid range prospect.

I don't think we can go in with the assumption that we're adding EK to all things we have no intention of trading. It WILL cost you some of what you don't want to lose.

Pionk and Buchnevich as the base.

 

[Trxjw]

If the Rangers are going to trade for a RHD, I'd put money on Trouba long before Karlsson.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

I think there's this assumption that we're getting EK and Ryan's bad contract for something like Hayes, ADA, Spooner, and maybe a 2020 first.

You're looking at one of Andersson or Chtyil, probably one of Hajek, Howden or someone on that level, a 2019 first and a roster player or mid range prospect.

I don't think we can go in with the assumption that we're adding EK to all things we have no intention of trading. It WILL cost you some of what you don't want to lose.

I think the package would be Hayes, Skjei, Spooner, Hajek/Howden, and a 1st.

I’d do that for EK. Don’t see Andersson or Chytil going back; Vegas wouldn’t move Glass with a chance to win the cup, and he’s a comparable level prospect.

I don’t see a team beating that offer. I don’t know what the Rangers thoughts on moving Skjei is, though.

 

[Edge]

And in that case, I'll pass. I think Gorton just called to see what was possible without breaking down the rebuild we are in. And walked away when he found out it would cost one of our building blocks.

I think I'd feel better about moving on this if we actually knew what we had emerging from our system, and were a few years down the road and on the cusp of something.

We're really not at either of those points yet.

And man, I have to tell you, I just can't help but feel EK is more in that 60 some odd point range at this stage of his career, and more likely to be in the 50-60 point range in 3 years than the 70-80 point for which he is going to be paid --- with three years being when the Rangers would hopefully be hitting their stride.

 

[SA16]

I don't think you understand what the "full value" of Karlsson is via trade.

You'd be talking, Chytil, Andersson, 2019 1st, 2020 2nd, 2019 3rd, and a replacement roster player

I understand what it is and it's not two top prospects, a potential lottery pick, more picks, and players for a guy who is an upcoming UFA.

 

[Edge]

Pionk and Buchnevich as the base.

I don't think the Sens make any trade unless Andersson or Chytil is one of the pieces going back the other way.

So maybe Andersson, Buch, Pionk and a 2019 first as the basis.

 

[Edge]

I understand what it is and it's not two top prospects, a potential lottery pick, more picks, and players for a guy who is an upcoming UFA.

I don't think anyone is trading for the UFA, which is why they're being given a window to negotiate.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Leslie has posted her writeup of prospects camp (posting here and in the prospects thread):

Treff: 2018 Rangers Prospect Development Camp Review

 

[TheTakedown]

I think there's this assumption that we're getting EK and Ryan's bad contract for something like Hayes, ADA, Spooner, and maybe a 2020 first.

You're looking at one of Andersson or Chtyil, probably one of Hajek, Howden or someone on that level, a 2019 first and a roster player or mid range prospect.

I don't think we can go in with the assumption that we're adding EK to all things we have no intention of trading. It WILL cost you some of what you don't want to lose.

Depends on what the market sets. Nobody wants to give up their best prospects to get Karlsson. If melnyk has a team that will take Ryan, you have to consider the smaller package.

Skjei + Spooner (as a fake cap hit essentially) + 2019 1st + Roster Player is fair. I'd give them One of Howden or a middling prospect

 

[Inferno]

Are you willing to bet 8 years at $11 million and a boatload of prospects on that belief?

That's going to be the question for the Rangers.

No...but am I willing to make an offer to him as an ufa or take him for pennies on the dollar while taking Ryan? Yep.

 

[Edge]

I think the package would be Hayes, Skjei, Spooner, Hajek/Howden, and a 1st.

I’d do that for EK. Don’t see Andersson or Chytil going back; Vegas wouldn’t move Glass with a chance to win the cup, and he’s a comparable level prospect.

I don’t see a team beating that offer. I don’t know what the Rangers thoughts on moving Skjei is, though.

I don't think that gets it done for Ottawa.

We keep throwing out the guys we are okay with trading and assuming that if we give quantity, it will mask the fact that we aren't giving up one of our "prized possessions."

Any deal for EK is going to make you swallow...hard.

If it doesn't, it probably isn't going to get it done.

 

[bobbop]

If Vegas wants to make a deal they don't need a facilitator. The EK to Vegas deal broke down this year because they wouldn't include Glass. That tells you all you need to know right there.

Vegas can do this deal if they want to. So can the Islanders. They have assets and the need for a star player. Of course, there's a question whether Karlsson (or for that matter Ryan) would want to go there.

I'm still a big believer in elite talent. The Rangers may (or may not) be out right now but the Senators may be the ones calling soon. Whatever the Rangers are willing to offer may look a lot better once other offers are considered. Keep this in mind...Dorion badly lost the Duchesne trade. He lost the Hoffman trade. He's desperately trying to win this trade but the odds are badly stacked against him. I'm more than willing to gamble that no matter when our "window" actually opens, Karlsson will still be an outstanding player.

The 16-17 Ottawa team just didn't just limp in to the conference finals. They lost in the seventh game to the eventual Stanley Cup champions in double overtime.

And as for Ryan, I'll take my chances. I fully expect there will be compliance buyouts available again in two years. Owners and players like them for varied reasons. Even if there isn't a long bruising lockout, they could well find their way into a new labor agreement. He may gets revitalized in new surroundings., He also may be flipped at 50% retained by an acquiring team.

Oh, and no one is giving Spooner a 4 year, $18.5MM contract. Not even Mrs. Spooner.

And finally...here's one more team to watch out for -- The Flyers. Philly has assets available, cap space, Ryan is from South Jersey and they could also use a goaltender. Hmmm...

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think I'd feel better about moving on this if we actually knew what we had emerging from our system, and were a few years down the road and on the cusp of something.

We're really not at either of those points yet.

And man, I have to tell you, I just can't help but feel EK is more in that 60 some odd point range at this point of his career, and more likely to be in the 50-60 point range in 3 years than the 70-80 point for which is going to be paid. With three years being when the Rangers would hopefully be hitting their stride.

That's a good point most people seem to be missing. By the time we are ready to compete, Karlsson won't be the player he is today. It's the exact same reason people want to trade Zuccarello rather than re-signing him. And it was the same with McDonagh.

 

[silverfish]

I think a lot of people are missing the point in the sense that if the Rangers trade for EK today, they're not trying to compete starting three years from now. The window reopens and they're trying to compete today.

Trading for EK blows up the rebuild, it doesn't complement it.

 

[Edge]

That's a good point most people seem to be missing. By the time we are ready to compete, Karlsson won't be the player he is today. It's the exact same reason people want to trade Zuccarello rather than re-signing him. And it was the same with McDonagh.

Some people assume he will be. I'm not convinced he's the player today that he was two years ago, let alone two or three years down the line.

Will he still be a great player? Probably.

Will he be the best of the best? Probably not.

And that's the rub.

The cost for EK, both in terms of a trade and contract, will not be for a "great" player. It will be for the "best" player.

Deep down, I don't think people visualize EK being a great player. They subconsciously visualize him being the best of his class. So while they say they think he'll still be effective in 3 years or so, I'm not really sure if the vision in their head matches with the reality of what that probably looks like.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think a lot of people are missing the point in the sense that if the Rangers trade for EK today, they're not trying to compete starting three years from now. The window reopens and they're trying to compete today.

Trading for EK blows up the rebuild, it doesn't complement it.

We are not 1 Erik Karlsson away from being a contender though. Put Karlsson on this team and we will be exactly like Ottawa. A few good players, one elite player and still missing the play offs.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

If the Rangers are going to trade for a RHD, I'd put money on Trouba long before Karlsson.

Logically, yes. I think what people are responding most to is the chance to get Karlsson for dimes on the dollar.

 

[Edge]

I think a lot of people are missing the point in the sense that if the Rangers trade for EK today, they're not trying to compete starting three years from now. The window reopens and they're trying to compete today.

Trading for EK blows up the rebuild, it doesn't complement it.

That simply will not work.

And I think the Rangers know that.

 

[TheTakedown]

If Vegas wants to make a deal they don't need a facilitator. The EK to Vegas deal broke down this year because they wouldn't include Glass. That tells you all you need to know right there.

Vegas can do this deal if they want to. So can the Islanders. They have assets and the need for a star player. Of course, there's a question whether Karlsson (or for that matter Ryan) would want to go there.

I'm still a big believer in elite talent. The Rangers may (or may not) be out right now but the Senators may be the ones calling soon. Whatever the Rangers are willing to offer may look a lot better once other offers are considered. Keep this in mind...Dorion badly lost the Duchesne trade. He lost the Hoffman trade. He's desperately trying to win this trade but the odds are badly stacked against him. I'm more than willing to gamble that no matter when our "window" actually opens, Karlsson will still be an outstanding player.

The 16-17 Ottawa team just didn't just limp in to the conference finals. They lost in the seventh game to the eventual Stanley Cup champions in double overtime.

And as for Ryan, I'll take my chances. I fully expect there will be compliance buyouts available again in two years. Owners and players like them for varied reasons. Even if there isn't a long bruising lockout, they could well find their way into a new labor agreement. He may gets revitalized in new surroundings., He also may be flipped at 50% retained by an acquiring team.

Oh, and no one is giving Spooner a 4 year, $18.5MM contract. Not even Mrs. Spooner.

And finally...here's one more team to watch out for -- The Flyers. Philly has assets available, cap space, Ryan is from South Jersey and they could also use a goaltender. Hmmm...

Yep, and this is why I don't think any team trading for him will have to give up their best prospects

 

[silverfish]

We are not 1 Erik Karlsson away from being a contender though. Put Karlsson on this team and we will be exactly like Ottawa. A few good players, one elite player and still missing the play offs.

I'm not arguing for or against that.

But I'd imagine if this team pushes to trade for EK, they won't be done trying to make the team better. You don't blow up essential parts that you've gained through rebuilding on a 28 year old d-man, as elite as he is, to hope to start competing again when he's 31-33, and set your current rebuild back years.

You make that move if you're ready to say 'f*** it' and go.

 

[RGY]

The Rangers do not become the Ottawa Senators after this trade. They have an opportunity to reduce the assets needed to be sent there by taking on Ryan’s contract and get an elite defenseman while still having their strong core of prospects in tact.

 

[TheGuarantee]

Wait for UFA, don’t trade. If he’s available then, great - if not, move on to whatever is the next step. I would love EK, and believe he could be Gorton Rangers Chara in a way. I think he’s the player Dolan wished McDonagh was, based on his comments around the TDL. If I’m Gorton, I stand pat and wait until I can offer contracts to Panarin and Karlsson. 6 to midnight, baby.