Speculation: Free Agent Frenzy Part II - Who is left?

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Just my opinion but I don't think we were ever SERIOUS contenders for EK. Like a good GM I am sure JG inquired.

I think we were involved as a facilitator. Maybe we would have taken on Ryan's contract, but Gorton decided the return wasn't worth it. I don't believe for a second that Gorton had any serious thought to acquiring EK.
 
I do not see the Rangers trading any of their guys in the pipeline away - it is completely counterproductive. Especially some of these names you guys are dropping, Howden, HAJEK? Come on guys. :laugh:

Ottawa has to look at it this way, where can they dump their extremely high cap hit ($7,200,000 per season) while also getting SOMETHING for Karlsson. I can see Spooner being involved, or maybe a 2nd round pick at best. No chance Ottawa sees a 1st, or a major pipeline product while their asset has already displayed public outrage and wants out.

This is key. Bobby Ryan is VERY LARGE negative trade value. Attaching him to Karlsson allows them to move that negative value along with an asset that has positive value, which gets them out from the financial commitment (which is the primary issue right now).

Karlsson is not staying with Ottawa, value down
Teams were never trading a boatload of assets for a rental Karlsson to begin with, value down
Only a handful of teams can even consider taking Karlsson with an extension, let alone adding Bobby Ryan to the deal, value down
Karlsson being extended doesn't necessarily up the trade value, because the entire Karlsson deal is contingent on Ryan being taken as well, value down
Melnyk just refinanced debt and needs to get out from this contract--ala he's trying to get the valuation of the team up, and needs to move on the $30M commitment to a player that will most likely never produce what he's worth, value down since Melnyk is bent over a barrel right now
Ryan + Karlsson is $13.75M in cap space, OTT is at $60.89M against the salary cap, but they'll be down to $47.14M after trading Karlsson and Ryan. The cap floor is $58.8M, Ottawa needs to add $11.66M in salary at minimum to reach the cap floor.

The trade that somebody noted where the rangers a) sign Spooner, b) pay the signing bonus, and then c) trade the player is perfect for this. Rangers have a glut of picks they can trade. You can also move Zuccarello for another package and then take some of those picks and move them.

For reference, the Bobby Ryan buyout isn't bad if we wait one more year. I don't know if it's possible, but I'd love for the Rangers to not honor the NTC/NMC attaching to the contract
Bobby Ryan Buyout Details

Cost Calculations

BUYOUT DATEBASE SALARY REMAININGS.BONUS REMAININGYEARS REMAININGBUYOUT LENGTHAGEBUYOUT RATIOTOTAL COSTTOTAL SAVINGSANNUAL COST
Jun 15, 2019$16,500,000$6,000,00036322/3$11,000,000$5,500,000$1,833,333
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Cap Hit Calculations

SEASONBASE SALARYINITIAL CAP HITACTUAL COSTSAVINGSFINAL CAP HIT
2019-20$5,500,000$7,250,000$1,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2020-21$5,500,000$7,250,000$1,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2021-22$5,500,000$7,250,000$1,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2022-23$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
2023-24$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
2024-25$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
TOTAL$16,500,000$21,750,000$11,000,000$5,500,000$16,250,000
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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Ek65 had like 60ish points after recovering from major surgery on a crap tastic team that plays defense first second and third while mourning the loss of his child and dealing with a stalker troll....I have zero reason to believe his game is gonna fall off a cliff any time soon .

Are you willing to bet 8 years at $11 million and a boatload of prospects on that belief?

That's going to be the question for the Rangers.
 
Ek65 had like 60ish points after recovering from major surgery on a crap tastic team that plays defense first second and third while mourning the loss of his child and dealing with a stalker troll....I have zero reason to believe his game is gonna fall off a cliff any time soon .

62 (in 71), on a horrible gong show of a team after having no training camp following surgery on a foot where we knew that wouldn't be 100% until the year after (this upcoming season.)
 
Sens don't need to move Ryan with EK. They can be separate deals.

Again, Ryan on his own is worth a bag of pucks. The guy is basically Rick Nash with 4 years at $7.25M left on his deal. That's a cap dump if I ever saw one
 
Forget about trading for EK, that Ryan contract alone should be a deterrent.

1. Chris Kreider to Boston for Ryan Donato and Jake DeBrusk.

2. Zucc to Dallas for Spezza, Janmark and a 1st.

3. Hayes to Car for Justin Faulk

4. Spezza @50%, Hajak and Howden to Winnipeg for Jacob Trouba and Nic Petan

5. Justin Faulk, Brendan Smith and Jake DeBrusk to EDM for Jesse Puljujarvi, Milan Lucic @4m per (33% retained) and 19’ first

Long-term lineup:
Jarnmark-Ziba-Pulju
Petan-Chytil-Kravtsov
Donato-Lias-Namestnikov
Lucic-Petan-Fast
Skjei-Trouba
Miller-Pionk
Lindgren-TDA

Plus 3 first in 19’ again.

Deal Shatty for another 1st, in 20’?
At least once a week I thank God that okay is not our gm lol

Love u dude but yikes
 
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The same guy who had Tavares staying at 80%?

He's allowed to be wrong.

He provided the best coverage into the whole Tavares thing of all the guys out there. He's been on top of almost everything that has happened with that franchise since he took that job and frequently communicates with the fan base (including hosting periodic Q and A's).

Yeah, I wish we had a guy like him covering the team. Brooks his hit or miss, Carp seems like a great guy to get a beer with and listen to tell stories from before most of us were born but they're not on that level.

Cerny, despite the creep factor, was the closest thing we had to that. If anything, the Athletic should hire him.
 
I think the Rangers should be willing to trade for Karlsson, but I can see why people wouldn't. However, don't kid yourself into thinking that any of our prospects or future picks will be on his level. You think you need elite talent to win a cupt? This is your best shot.
 
62 (in 71), on a horrible gong show of a team after having no training camp following surgery on a foot where we knew that wouldn't be 100% until the year after (this upcoming season.)

I think that's the assumption and rationalization we and a lot of teams use before plunging into deals they regret within a few years.

No one goes into a contract thinking the wheels are going to fall off. It's always assumed that things will get better. Afterall, looks at [Exhibit A], [Exhibit B] and [Exhibit C].
 
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This is key. Bobby Ryan is VERY LARGE negative trade value. Attaching him to Karlsson allows them to move that negative value along with an asset that has positive value, which gets them out from the financial commitment (which is the primary issue right now).

Karlsson is not staying with Ottawa, value down
Teams were never trading a boatload of assets for a rental Karlsson to begin with, value down
Only a handful of teams can even consider taking Karlsson with an extension, let alone adding Bobby Ryan to the deal, value down
Karlsson being extended doesn't necessarily up the trade value, because the entire Karlsson deal is contingent on Ryan being taken as well, value down
Melnyk just refinanced debt and needs to get out from this contract--ala he's trying to get the valuation of the team up, and needs to move on the $30M commitment to a player that will most likely never produce what he's worth, value down since Melnyk is bent over a barrel right now
Ryan + Karlsson is $13.75M in cap space, OTT is at $60.89M against the salary cap, but they'll be down to $47.14M after trading Karlsson and Ryan. The cap floor is $58.8M, Ottawa needs to add $11.66M in salary at minimum to reach the cap floor.

The trade that somebody noted where the rangers a) sign Spooner, b) pay the signing bonus, and then c) trade the player is perfect for this. Rangers have a glut of picks they can trade. You can also move Zuccarello for another package and then take some of those picks and move them.

For reference, the Bobby Ryan buyout isn't bad if we wait one more year. I don't know if it's possible, but I'd love for the Rangers to not honor the NTC/NMC attaching to the contract
Bobby Ryan Buyout Details

Cost Calculations

BUYOUT DATEBASE SALARY REMAININGS.BONUS REMAININGYEARS REMAININGBUYOUT LENGTHAGEBUYOUT RATIOTOTAL COSTTOTAL SAVINGSANNUAL COST
Jun 15, 2019$16,500,000$6,000,00036322/3$11,000,000$5,500,000$1,833,333
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Cap Hit Calculations

SEASONBASE SALARYINITIAL CAP HITACTUAL COSTSAVINGSFINAL CAP HIT
2019-20$5,500,000$7,250,000$1,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2020-21$5,500,000$7,250,000$1,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2021-22$5,500,000$7,250,000$1,833,333$3,666,667$3,583,333
2022-23$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
2023-24$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
2024-25$0$0$1,833,333-$1,833,333$1,833,333
TOTAL$16,500,000$21,750,000$11,000,000$5,500,000$16,250,000
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The buyout of Ryan isn't that bad. Give him a year to see where he is. See how next off-season goes. If the money is needed, buy him out. If not, give him another year.
 
I think the Rangers should be willing to trade for Karlsson, but I can see why people wouldn't. However, don't kid yourself into thinking that any of our prospects or future picks will be on his level. You think you need elite talent to win a cupt? This is your best shot.

I really don't think the expectation is or should be that anyone is on Karlsson's level.

But I also think there's a reason why teams who think they are close to capturing a Cup are the ones primarily in on the EK talks.

If nothing else, we feel like the "one of these things" part of the "One of these things is not like the other" song.
 
How can that even be? They were number #2 on Forbes list with a value of 1.4 Billion.

Canadian teams rarely spend all the way up to the cap. The financial aspect of the game hits them hard with the uncertainty of the CAD. The thing is:

Their revenue is in CAD, but their expenses are in USD. If the CAD drops ever so slightly, it has major implications for all Canadian teams. And with the global situation regarding oil, which is Canada's biggest export product accounting for nearly 30% of all their export, it's difficult to plan ahead. A few years ago it was much worse, and it has stabilized a bit, but I wouldn't be surprised if the teams are cautious with this in mind.
 
I think the Rangers should be willing to trade for Karlsson, but I can see why people wouldn't. However, don't kid yourself into thinking that any of our prospects or future picks will be on his level. You think you need elite talent to win a cupt? This is your best shot.

I'm reasonably certain no one has made that argument. That isn't the reason not to trade for Karlsson. The primary reason is because we are in a rebuild and trading for a player who is in his prime now would be a waste of assets. Yeah, Karlsson might buck the trend and be great for the next 8 years, but I'm not willing to give up valuable assets, waste 2-4 of those years, and hope that he will still be the same player after that.
 
Oh I'd trade for Karlsson for sure but I'd rather pay full value and not take on Ryan's horrendous cap hit. He's still an adequate player unlike Staal/Girardi but that contract is just so much and can really prevent you from doing things later. That said I'd be open to paying...85 cents on the dollar for Karlsson if they were to retain a bit on Ryan.

It's just a question of what are we talking the difference is? Yea if by attaching Ryan they basically give away Karlsson for nothing that's one thing. But if you're still trading first rounders/guys like Hayes or Skjei/top prospects you're still giving up a lot anyway and taking that on.

If you trade for Karlsson/Ryan now and don't give up any roster players you're basically at the cap right now including HAyes/Skjei extension and losing Zucc.

I don't think you understand what the "full value" of Karlsson is via trade.

You'd be talking, Chytil, Andersson, 2019 1st, 2020 2nd, 2019 3rd, and a replacement roster player
 
Again, shaping it up for EK65 to be the bad guy for turning down $80M. Bush league by Ottawa.



Well, it also depends how that contract is written up. Looking at Tavares and Price, with ~90% being signing bonuses (i.e. guaranteed money in case of a lockout or buy out), I can understand Karlsson rejecting it if it's a big base salary and a smaller signing bonus.
 
Skjei goes in the EK deal and de Haan replaces him.

Claesson-Karlsson
de Haan-Shattenkirk
Smith/Staal-Pionk

That would be fantastic asset management. De Haan is probably what Skjei becomes. Why not accelerate that AND upgrade the RD position?
 
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