GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[Gallagbi]

People are acting like goalie Bob is a washout and must go for the Panthers.

2021-22 - Florida Panthers - NHL 54 games 39 wins 7 losses 3 OTL SO 3 with a 2.67 GAA and 0.913 sv%.

He won 39 of his 54 starts last year (which was the most of any goalie) and he posted the NHL 4th best +23.4 Goals Saved Above Expected.

He was a big reason they won the President's trophy as best regular season team.

While the $10 mil price tag is ugly, most teams including our Leafs would kill to have their goalie post those #'s

People act like Bobs on a horrible deal, which he is. Hes a fine goalie, just aging, overpaid and over-termed.

 

[Mess]

Bobrovsky was okay in the playoffs.

A lot better than the Leafs got.

Pick one.

Sergei Bobrovsky to Toronto - 50% retained with 3rd and 7th = $5 mil cap hit ($14 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Florida Panthers - NHL 54 games 39 wins 7 losses 3 OTL SO: 3 with a 2.67 GAA and 0.913 sv% & 4th best Goals Saved Above Expected @ +23.4

or

Matt Murray to Toronto - 25% retained with 3rd and 7th = $4.687 mil cap hit ($12 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Ottawa Senators - NHL .. 20 games 5 wins 12 losses 2 OTL SO: 0 with a 3.05 GAA & 0.906 sv% & 24th best Goals Saved above Expected @ +3.2

 

[ULF_55]

Lundell is a pretty great sweetener.

1C upside, at worst a 2C behind Larkin.

I've heard that Yzerman is playing the long game with Nedeljkovic and Husso.

He expects at least one of them to be their long term solution.

 

[ULF_55]

Pick one.

Sergei Bobrovsky to Toronto - 50% retained with 3rd and 7th = $5 mil cap hit ($14 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Florida Panthers - NHL 54 games 39 wins 7 losses 3 OTL SO: 3 with a 2.67 GAA and 0.913 sv% & 4th best Goals Saved Above Expected @ +23.4

or

Matt Murray to Toronto - 25% retained with 3rd and 7th = $4.687 mil cap hit ($12 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Ottawa Senators - NHL .. 20 games 5 wins 12 losses 2 OTL SO: 0 with a 3.05 GAA & 0.906 sv% & 24th best Goals Saved above Expected @ +3.2

I'd take Murry.

He's easy to flush.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I've heard that Yzerman is playing the long game with Nedeljkovic and Husso.

He expects at least one of them to be their long term solution.

They have Cossa in the system anyway. Bob's gone in 4 years, they'd have like 8M cap space and other deals will expire to accomodate Larkin, Seider and Raymond.

 

[Mess]

People act like Bobs on a horrible deal, which he is. Hes a fine goalie, just aging, overpaid and over-termed.

Top 10 Goalies - Goals Saved above Expected.

2021-22 Season

			Games	Goals	Expected	Goals Saved
	TEAM	Name	Played	Against	Goals	Above
					Against	Expected
1​	New York Rangers	Igor Shesterkin	53​	106​	140.10	34.10
2​	Tampa Bay Lightning	Andrei Vasilevskiy	63​	156​	184.41	28.40
3​	Carolina Hurricanes	Frederik Andersen	52​	111​	138.82	27.80
4​	Florida Panthers	Sergei Bobrovsky	54​	137​	160.39	23.40
5​	Colorado Avalanche	Darcy Kuemper	57​	138​	158.97	21.00
6​	Nashville Predators	Juuse Saros	67​	173​	193.69	20.70
7​	Los Angeles Kings	Jonathan Quick	46​	116​	133.80	17.80
8​	Winnipeg Jets	Connor Hellebuyck	66​	193​	209.65	16.70
9​	St. Louis Blues	Ville Husso	40​	100​	113.54	13.50
10​	New York Islanders	Ilya Sorokin	52​	123​	135.77	12.80

Now that Kuemper is Washington the top 5 goalies reside in the Eastern Conference including goalie Bob who was 4th overall.

 

[Menzinger]

Pick one.

Sergei Bobrovsky to Toronto - 50% retained with 3rd and 7th = $5 mil cap hit ($14 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Florida Panthers - NHL 54 games 39 wins 7 losses 3 OTL SO: 3 with a 2.67 GAA and 0.913 sv% & 4th best Goals Saved Above Expected @ +23.4

or

Matt Murray to Toronto - 25% retained with 3rd and 7th = $4.687 mil cap hit ($12 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Ottawa Senators - NHL .. 20 games 5 wins 12 losses 2 OTL SO: 0 with a 3.05 GAA & 0.906 sv% & 24th best Goals Saved above Expected @ +3.2

The younger, cheaper one with less term and better playoff performance pedigree seems like a better gamble to take.

 

[Menzinger]

Florida isn't thinking in terms of what value we got head per head. Florida's core at best now 26 years in average.

Weager has been rumored to be in the trade mill for a while. They been wanting to move from him now for long time.

They saved money long term and they got younger. That first round? 2025. They have plenty of time to recover that

It's ok sometimes to move on from players. Not get emotionally attached because you drafted him, because he got 100 points. It's ok to try a different look

I know, I know. As a Leafs fans, that must be so foreign to us.



Lundell is untouchable. He's not going anywhere
He's one of the reason why they were able to make this move

Though let's face it. This trade could prove to be a flop for Florida in as soon as a few months from now.

They made the decision for a radical change - but it can go either way still.

 

[OVO16]

How has Kadri and Klingberg still not signed

 

[joepeps]

Pick one.

Sergei Bobrovsky to Toronto - 50% retained with 3rd and 7th = $5 mil cap hit ($14 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Florida Panthers - NHL 54 games 39 wins 7 losses 3 OTL SO: 3 with a 2.67 GAA and 0.913 sv% & 4th best Goals Saved Above Expected @ +23.4

or

Matt Murray to Toronto - 25% retained with 3rd and 7th = $4.687 mil cap hit ($12 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Ottawa Senators - NHL .. 20 games 5 wins 12 losses 2 OTL SO: 0 with a 3.05 GAA & 0.906 sv% & 24th best Goals Saved above Expected @ +3.2

well one is for 2 years and the other is for 4 years.... and I dont think Florida is eating 50% (5 Mil) lol

I rather have the lower length and hope Murray bounces back... Bob is very off and rarely on... Murray has 2 rings

 

[WTFMAN99]

How has Kadri and Klingberg still not signed

Klingberg overrated

Kadri either overplayed his hand or waiting for the team to clear cap space he's chosen. Maybe Colorado has to trade Compher and/or Johnson

 

[Menzinger]

I would love to see Florida bleed more picks.

That's why this deal is a bit confusing. Tkachuk is a great long term piece for their core and a nice alternative to Huberdeau .. but it's cost them a lot in terms of the ability to compete and win now (weaker blue line, less assets to use at the deadline).

.. And even in the long term, they've pillaged their draft capital and prospect pool. So when they have to re-sign Verhaeghe, Bennett, Reinhart, Ekblad, Duclair, they will have a hard time fitting them in and nothing in the cupboard to replace them with. Plus they will have to rely on bargain UFA signings to fill out their roster, not cheap quality ELC talent.

The exact problem with justifying the trade for the Panthers based on the idea of Tkachuk as a long term asset (which is true) is that they're trying to be 100% competitive as possible now and essentially moved laterally at forward while losing a top 3hd AND yet another 1st .

The trade hurt their immediate competitiveness AND their long term ability to retool at the same time.

 

[Martin Skoula]

This deadline should be a good buyers market. Florida and Tampa blew their picks and prospects for rentals already and 2023 1sts are going to be higher value than 2022 1sts. Don't think we're going to be seeing any Chiarot for 1st+ deals this year.

 

[Menzinger]

This deadline should be a good buyers market. Florida and Tampa blew their picks and prospects for rentals already and 2023 1sts are going to be higher value than 2022 1sts. Don't think we're going to be seeing any Chiarot for 1st+ deals this year.

Good observation. Lots of divisional rivals have spent their trade currency already. Opens things up for the Leafs if they want to add again at the tdl

 

[LeafChief]

Good observation. Lots of divisional rivals have spent their trade currency already. Opens things up for the Leafs if they want to add again at the tdl

Hopefully Kerfoot and Holl trades will give them a little more ammo too.

 

[BayStBullies]

Pick one.

Sergei Bobrovsky to Toronto - 50% retained with 3rd and 7th = $5 mil cap hit ($14 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Florida Panthers - NHL 54 games 39 wins 7 losses 3 OTL SO: 3 with a 2.67 GAA and 0.913 sv% & 4th best Goals Saved Above Expected @ +23.4

or

Matt Murray to Toronto - 25% retained with 3rd and 7th = $4.687 mil cap hit ($12 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Ottawa Senators - NHL .. 20 games 5 wins 12 losses 2 OTL SO: 0 with a 3.05 GAA & 0.906 sv% & 24th best Goals Saved above Expected @ +3.2

Why would Florida retain 50% of a $10 million deal?

 

[613Leafer]

Pick one.

Sergei Bobrovsky to Toronto - 50% retained with 3rd and 7th = $5 mil cap hit ($14 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Florida Panthers - NHL 54 games 39 wins 7 losses 3 OTL SO: 3 with a 2.67 GAA and 0.913 sv% & 4th best Goals Saved Above Expected @ +23.4

or

Matt Murray to Toronto - 25% retained with 3rd and 7th = $4.687 mil cap hit ($12 mil actual owing post retention)
2021-22 - Ottawa Senators - NHL .. 20 games 5 wins 12 losses 2 OTL SO: 0 with a 3.05 GAA & 0.906 sv% & 24th best Goals Saved above Expected @ +3.2

I wouldn't touch 4 years of Bobrovsky at his age with his stats from the last ~3-4 years.

Not saying I'm happy with what we did, but I'd take Murray over that.

 

[LeafChief]

This Bobrovsky vs Murray debate is incredibly disingenuous. In what world is Florida retaining 50% of that contract for 4 years?

 

[TheDoldrums]

Goalies are voodoo and the important part is we have no long term commitments. We can't afford any bad contracts on the books in a couple years when we start the big re-signings.

 

[VanW27]

The exact problem with justifying the trade for the Panthers based on the idea of Tkachuk as a long term asset (which is true) is that they're trying to be 100% competitive as possible now and essentially moved laterally at forward while losing a top 3hd AND yet another 1st .

The trade hurt their immediate competitiveness AND their long term ability to retool at the same time.

I'm guessing the rationale for the Panthers is this:

1. They know this makes them worse in the short term (this season) but they believe they'll still be among the top teams in the East regardless, battling the Leafs and Bolts for 1, 2, 3 in the division.

2. The obvious longterm play is having a young star locked up for 8 years thru his prime.

3. They believe they can retool next summer with the 10.6 in dead cap coming off the books (5.3 of actual dead cap and Hornqvist's 5.3 of 'near-dead' cap) and the only player of any significance to resign being Knight. While true they are lacking futures they will have cap space which means soft deals and free agency will be viable options for them, hell Weegar could even be a Panther again this time next year.

 

[Stephen]

Bobrovsky is a bit like Tavares, but in net. He's still at the caliber they paid him to be aka, a starter, but his status is gradually waning at dropping to a level where the cap hit is more and more of a problem because of the overpayment. Problem with them is they don't have the Auston Matthews of goalies to platoon with him. Nor can you have $20 million in that position.

 

[deprw]

This is comedic. Zito does what we accuse Dubas of and then we have some here trying to spin that being a good thing. God damn it. Florida essentially traded away all their futures in two years. They have three big contracts like us and their goaltending is not spotty, but it's also damn expensive and they have basicly no defense at the moment.

If that Florida team tanks it's unfixable for next GM. They have that #1 C, W, D and G covered, but they have no assets to build on that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yes and that hasn't changed and its why I see Leafs and Florida the same and neither serious Cup contenders..

You literally just got through praising Florida's 2 worse players, and claimed that Florida's cup window was "now wide open for the next 8 years".

By the "defense wins championship" mantra (that's wrong BTW), Toronto (who was a top defensive team last year, that got better this offseason) has a much better cup chance than Florida (who was a middle-of-the-pack defensive team last year, that got worse this offseason).

 

[Gallagbi]

Top 10 Goalies - Goals Saved above Expected.

2021-22 Season

			Games	Goals	Expected	Goals Saved
	TEAM	Name	Played	Against	Goals	Above
					Against	Expected
1​	New York Rangers	Igor Shesterkin	53​	106​	140.10	34.10
2​	Tampa Bay Lightning	Andrei Vasilevskiy	63​	156​	184.41	28.40
3​	Carolina Hurricanes	Frederik Andersen	52​	111​	138.82	27.80
4​	Florida Panthers	Sergei Bobrovsky	54​	137​	160.39	23.40
5​	Colorado Avalanche	Darcy Kuemper	57​	138​	158.97	21.00
6​	Nashville Predators	Juuse Saros	67​	173​	193.69	20.70
7​	Los Angeles Kings	Jonathan Quick	46​	116​	133.80	17.80
8​	Winnipeg Jets	Connor Hellebuyck	66​	193​	209.65	16.70
9​	St. Louis Blues	Ville Husso	40​	100​	113.54	13.50
10​	New York Islanders	Ilya Sorokin	52​	123​	135.77	12.80

Now that Kuemper is Washington the top 5 goalies reside in the Eastern Conference including goalie Bob who was 4th overall.

Whats this have to do with my point that hes overpaid and his term is too long for his age?

You must be pretty jazzed about the Campbell for Murray swap though with your newfound faith in GSAE

 

[Stephen]

The exact problem with justifying the trade for the Panthers based on the idea of Tkachuk as a long term asset (which is true) is that they're trying to be 100% competitive as possible now and essentially moved laterally at forward while losing a top 3hd AND yet another 1st .

The trade hurt their immediate competitiveness AND their long term ability to retool at the same time.

Yep. Florida made a very splashy move, which is what fans want to see in the offseason but.

1) they already scorched the earth at the 2022 deadline, which has taken away a lot of their trade capital for the 2023 and 2024 runs.

2) The Tkachuk trade also artificially burns the last year of Huberdeau and Weegar's cheap contracts.

3) Have handcuffed themselves into a cap crunch in 2023 instead of beginning in 2024. (Currently over the cap).

4) Have a terrible blueline. No draft capital to trade. No cap space to sign. No surplus forward depth to move off.