GDT: Free agency madness, brought to you by the letter G - PART 2

[bicboi64]

What is your definition of nothing?

He was the second part of what CGY was able to recover for M. Tkachuk forcing his way out. They're not going to give him up for less than 1st + A prospect even if he promises to walk out, especially if fans are right and Weegar is considering a top pairing D. They'll keep him to deepen their currently handicapped defense group with Tanev out and hopefully make the playoffs to give fans something to cheer about and forget Tkachuk with.

We're not going to get Weegar for less than 2023 1st (top 3 protected) + 2023 2nd + Jarventie/Sokolov/JBD/Thomson

While I admit that Weegar is an important part of the Tkachuk trade, there's no way a UFA rental is traded for that package unless an extension is already in the talks.

 

[Big Muddy]

We essentially have the same defense we iced last year with the addition of Hamonic and Sanderson.

Hamonic + Sanderson being the plan to turn around a league wide bottom 10 defense is worrying. Unless the team plan is to outscore the opposition in a war of attrition and have Forsberg stand on his head

A cap league imposes a predictable cycle that teams will go through. We are progressing to the next stage of that cycle.

This stage of the cycle is characterized by:

1. Our good ELCs requiring larger RFA contracts e.g., Tkachuk, Norris already, Stutzle, Sanderson soon (or very soon)
2. A few trades or UFAs additions to fill holes, accelerate and strengthen the team e.g., Debrincat, Talbot, Giroux
3. Adjustments or "subtractions" that will need to be made because of 1 & 2 above

Ideally, because of the above (especially #3), the team will have a good stock of prospect ELCs to step and fill roster spots. This will be required soon because of this progression or cycle.

This is the cycle. If the organization has done a good job of drafting & developing, then the team will inevitably need to give the prospects some NHL ice time and graduate the prospects. This is the purpose of the draft. Again, the cap (happens even faster with a self imposed cap) will thrust this reality on us and make it inevitable. There have been some good posts that have looked at this and presented the numbers and the reality.

I'm not as bothered about this as some, and its inevitable anyhow.

 

[Blotto71]

I still don't know why the Sens wouldn't push hard for Larsen out of Seattle. Yes, he has a NTC this year (changes to M-NTC next year and the year after), but he is darn near a perfect fit to anchor the 2nd pair and ease Sanderson into the league. Thiswould be a great team for him to join and build up his value for what is likely to be his last contract following the 2024-25 season when he will be 33. His actual salary is higher than than his cap hit ($4M) after this season, so that could cause some issues if there is a max spend number.

Thomson + Zaitsev + pick (top 3 protected 2024 1st or does a 2nd do it or 2x 2nds?)

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

I’m guessing a trade goes down for a dman sometime in the next 48 hrs.

Well whaddaya know…. I was wrong.

 

[OUT HOUSE]

Well whaddaya know…. I was wrong.

Shame

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

At this point, I'd just let the team start to gel, and give Lassi and JBD a good audition. This is going to be a bit of a rough year...o many changes this summer, they guys are going to be out of sync for a bit. We're not winning the Cup this spring, so we may as well use this last "not really competitive" season as a time to give that last group of kids some ice and either sink or swim.

That way we give the forwards the seaosn to develop chemistry and solidify, while figuring out who fits and who doesn't on the back end. Then go into next summer looking for that last piece(s).

 

[bicboi64]

A cap league imposes a predictable cycle that teams will go through. We are progressing to the next stage of that cycle.

This stage of the cycle is characterized by:

1. Our good ELCs requiring larger RFA contracts e.g., Tkachuk, Norris already, Stutzle, Sanderson soon (or very soon)
2. A few trades or UFAs additions to fill holes, accelerate and strengthen the team e.g., Debrincat, Talbot, Giroux
3. Adjustments or "subtractions" that will need to be made because of 1 & 2 above

Ideally, because of the above (especially #3), the team will have a good stock of prospect ELCs to step and fill roster spots. This will be required soon because of this progression or cycle.

This is the cycle. If the organization has done a good job of drafting & developing, then the team will inevitably need to give the prospects some NHL ice time and graduate the prospects. This is the purpose of the draft. Again, the cap (happens even faster with a self imposed cap) will thrust this reality on us and make it inevitable. There have been some good posts that have looked at this and presented the numbers and the reality.

I'm not as bothered about this as some, and its inevitable anyhow.

This self imposed cap of ours still has us paying money to pieces that aren't good enough to have us make the playoffs and be competitive. Hamonic at $3 million and Zaitsev at $4.5 million needs to change. I'm all for giving a guy like JBD or Lassi a chance in the line up, they've been cooking for a while, but if we're relying on either Zaitsev or Hamonic to be in the top 4, we're screwed.

Its a gamble to do what Ottawa is doing, and the risk of it not paying off can hurt us. Teams that have had success in the playoffs have made aggressive moves at some point for help on D. Tampa getting a guy like McDonagh, Colorado targeting someone like Manson, etc...

They had both an influx of ELC talent, but also established guys that weren't risks to play in the top 4

 

[Alex1234]

What is your definition of nothing?

He was the second part of what CGY was able to recover for M. Tkachuk forcing his way out. They're not going to give him up for less than 1st + A prospect even if he promises to walk out, especially if fans are right and Weegar is considering a top pairing D. They'll keep him to deepen their currently handicapped defense group with Tanev out and hopefully make the playoffs to give fans something to cheer about and forget Tkachuk with.

We're not going to get Weegar for less than 2023 1st (top 3 protected) + 2023 2nd + Jarventie/Sokolov/JBD/Thomson

I meant as a UFA my bad

 

[Wondercarrot]

At this point, I'd just let the team start to gel, and give Lassi and JBD a good audition. This is going to be a bit of a rough year...o many changes this summer, they guys are going to be out of sync for a bit. We're not winning the Cup this spring, so we may as well use this last "not really competitive" season as a time to give that last group of kids some ice and either sink or swim.

That way we give the forwards the seaosn to develop chemistry and solidify, while figuring out who fits and who doesn't on the back end. Then go into next summer looking for that last piece(s).

I’m leaning heavily in this direction now.
It would be nice to take this team for a test drive, who knows what they can do together.
Tinker next year, or at the deadline etc. or if the right deal comes along.
There is literally only one thing we may need, and we have potentially 2 of them who could be ready.
As long as Zaitsev isn’t playing, I’m good.
I won’t complain if we make a deal obviously, I’m just not entirely sure it’s necessary.
I think this team can make the playoffs but im also not going to freak out if they come up short.
They will be so much more fun to watch, so much more talented, and they are so young it’s fun to watch them all get better.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

At this point, I'd just let the team start to gel, and give Lassi and JBD a good audition. This is going to be a bit of a rough year...o many changes this summer, they guys are going to be out of sync for a bit. We're not winning the Cup this spring, so we may as well use this last "not really competitive" season as a time to give that last group of kids some ice and either sink or swim.

That way we give the forwards the seaosn to develop chemistry and solidify, while figuring out who fits and who doesn't on the back end. Then go into next summer looking for that last piece(s).

I think we will do whatever it takes to get a top d man. We’re likely not winning the cup any spring. Let alone this one. So might as well go for it when you can.

 

[playasRus]

I’m leaning heavily in this direction now.
It would be nice to take this team for a test drive, who knows what they can do together.
Tinker next year, or at the deadline etc. or if the right deal comes along.
There is literally only one thing we may need, and we have potentially 2 of them who could be ready.
As long as Zaitsev isn’t playing, I’m good.
I won’t complain if we make a deal obviously, I’m just not entirely sure it’s necessary.
I think this team can make the playoffs but im also not going to freak out if they come up short.
They will be so much more fun to watch, so much more talented, and they are so young it’s fun to watch them all get better.

It's also the best hand can play long term since Zaitsev next summer will cost less to unload (~2nd pre-bonus, 4th post-bonus payout), new crop of RD available through trade and UFA (Weegar, Dumba, Severson, Shatty, Jensen), or we can try to trade for Bear, Fabbri as their teams may be cap stricken or go for upcoming UFAs in Montour, Demelo, Myers). Plus the benefit of hindsight on JBD, Lassi, and not having sold the farm.

 

[bert]

To be fair he said he would look into trading Chabot if Sanderson became Cale Makar

Sanderson is not Makar. Trading Chabot is asinine we need more elite d not less.

 

[JD1]

Sanderson is not Makar. Trading Chabot is asinine we need more elite d not less.

We'll see what Sanderson becomes. It certainly shouldn't surprise anyone if he's able to play top pair shutdown minutes in the 23-24 season. There's a lot hinging on what he becomes imo.

 

[JD1]

This self imposed cap of ours still has us paying money to pieces that aren't good enough to have us make the playoffs and be competitive. Hamonic at $3 million and Zaitsev at $4.5 million needs to change. I'm all for giving a guy like JBD or Lassi a chance in the line up, they've been cooking for a while, but if we're relying on either Zaitsev or Hamonic to be in the top 4, we're screwed.

Its a gamble to do what Ottawa is doing, and the risk of it not paying off can hurt us. Teams that have had success in the playoffs have made aggressive moves at some point for help on D. Tampa getting a guy like McDonagh, Colorado targeting someone like Manson, etc...

They had both an influx of ELC talent, but also established guys that weren't risks to play in the top 4

We're not screwed at all.

Top 6 + Top 4 is 10 players. We've got a clear top 6 and 2 that are clearly top 4 which is 8 players. Go around the league and you might not find that in many teams.

We don't play RD on the PP so you're looking at roughly 55 minutes a game for the RD position. Zub is going to play 20 of those minutes so now we're looking at 35 minutes. We shouldn't have a huge issue getting 18 or 19 out of Hamonic. Zaitsev led the RDs last year in PK time and our PK was statistically the only thing we had in the top half of the league. We might only need 13 minutes a night at even strength from Zaitsev.

We're not screwed at all.

 

[Big Muddy]

This self imposed cap of ours still has us paying money to pieces that aren't good enough to have us make the playoffs and be competitive. Hamonic at $3 million and Zaitsev at $4.5 million needs to change. I'm all for giving a guy like JBD or Lassi a chance in the line up, they've been cooking for a while, but if we're relying on either Zaitsev or Hamonic to be in the top 4, we're screwed.

Its a gamble to do what Ottawa is doing, and the risk of it not paying off can hurt us. Teams that have had success in the playoffs have made aggressive moves at some point for help on D. Tampa getting a guy like McDonagh, Colorado targeting someone like Manson, etc...

They had both an influx of ELC talent, but also established guys that weren't risks to play in the top 4

Sure we all would like to strengthen our blueline. We are aware of some of the limitations of a player like Zaitsev for example. This isn't escaping anyone I'd think, so its not like people are opposed to trying to improve if that is what is being concluded here somehow. And, as we know, the organization has stated publicly that this is a goal that they are endeavoring to address.

But, there's real world constraints. One of those issues is a cap (or a self-imposed cap). Another is the availability (or scarcity) of RDs. There's only so many things you can do.

Try putting a roster together with costs (AAV). Just make sure its at least a 22-player roster, that you include the buyouts & retained salary, and be realistic (with salaries). Use a spreadsheet, CapFriendly, paper/pencil/calculator or whatever tool or tools you like. When you're done, publish (post) the results here so we can take a look.

It's a good exercise. It's informative. Maybe you'll find a solution (even if it's largely or partially hypothetical) that others have not been able to find. I have a feeling the words or principle in brackets in the previous sentence could be revisited. It's all good. We all have common objectives. We want the team to be good & win.

 

[bert]

At this point, I'd just let the team start to gel, and give Lassi and JBD a good audition. This is going to be a bit of a rough year...o many changes this summer, they guys are going to be out of sync for a bit. We're not winning the Cup this spring, so we may as well use this last "not really competitive" season as a time to give that last group of kids some ice and either sink or swim.

That way we give the forwards the seaosn to develop chemistry and solidify, while figuring out who fits and who doesn't on the back end. Then go into next summer looking for that last piece(s).

100 percent this should be the approach. Alot of change over the offseason. The only move I'd like to see is Zaitsev gone. The choice of being able to play him at all needs to be taken away. If they can get rid of him I'd sign Dehaan to a 1 year deal. I'm very excited about the season and direction of the team but they aren't winning the Cup this year. It takes time. They need to develop a winning culture first.

 

[bert]

We'll see what Sanderson becomes. It certainly shouldn't surprise anyone if he's able to play top pair shutdown minutes in the 23-24 season. There's a lot hinging on what he becomes imo.

Yes but the expectation shouldn't be that he is going to just be that immediately. D is a very challenging position in the NHL. It's going to take some time. Secondly no one should expect him to be a top 5 player in the world. I've watched him he isn't Makar. He can fly but he doesn't have those hands, creativity or offensive IQ. He likely ends up something between Hanifin and at the absolute peak it's Heiskanen but I don't personally think his upside is that high.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I think we will do whatever it takes to get a top d man. We’re likely not winning the cup any spring. Let alone this one. So might as well go for it when you can.

Yeah....winning a Cup is hard. Damned hard. Especially for a Canadian-based team. So I do get the idea of really going for it and blowing the load for a 2-3 year concentrated run.

But....I want to gear up the team for the longest window possible. Give the guys as many chances to win as we can, and be competitive. And to do that, we need to leave some wiggle room when it comes to the cap and try to always have a good pipeline of prospects. Not sell the farm to go after some mythical piece (that almost never works out).

Last thing I want is a 2-3 year window then a decade (thereabouts) of tearing down and rebuilding...again.

 

[bert]

Yeah....winning a Cup is hard. Damned hard. Especially for a Canadian-based team. So I do get the idea of really going for it and blowing the load for a 2-3 year concentrated run.

But....I want to gear up the team for the longest window possible. Give the guys as many chances to win as we can, and be competitive. And to do that, we need to leave some wiggle room when it comes to the cap and try to always have a good pipeline of prospects. Not sell the farm to go after some mythical piece (that almost never works out).

Last thing I want is a 2-3 year window then a decade (thereabouts) of tearing down and rebuilding...again.

Makes no sense to not use this approach. The teams best player is 20, Sanderson and Pinto are rookies. This is absolutely not the time or the teams best chance not remotely close. In 2 years it's the start of the peak window that should be open for about 5.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Sanderson is not Makar. Trading Chabot is asinine we need more elite d not less.

I didn’t say I agree. I actually disagreed. But just clearing the air for the sake of argument integrity.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Yeah....winning a Cup is hard. Damned hard. Especially for a Canadian-based team. So I do get the idea of really going for it and blowing the load for a 2-3 year concentrated run.

But....I want to gear up the team for the longest window possible. Give the guys as many chances to win as we can, and be competitive. And to do that, we need to leave some wiggle room when it comes to the cap and try to always have a good pipeline of prospects. Not sell the farm to go after some mythical piece (that almost never works out).

Last thing I want is a 2-3 year window then a decade (thereabouts) of tearing down and rebuilding...again.

Makes no sense to not use this approach. The teams best player is 20, Sanderson and Pinto are rookies. This is absolutely not the time or the teams best chance not remotely close. In 2 years it's the start of the peak window that should be open for about 5.

Can also make the argument to go for it when Sanderson and pinto are on their ELCs.

We are yet to see if it will take “the farm” to acquire someone. If our goal is to make the playoffs which I think it is then our goal should also be to make noise in the playoffs.

We have a large tight core right now. And we could add chychrun for the next 3 years to that. Past that we will certainly be competitive still. Just minus chychrun and Sanderson will be further developed and we may also have a young D ready to come up and play top 4.

 

[Silencio]

Well whaddaya know…. I was wrong.

Don't feel too bad, I put $100 down on KD joining the Raptors.

 

[UglyPuckling]

And we could add chychrun for the next 3 years to that. Past that we will certainly be competitive still. Just minus chychrun and Sanderson will be further developed and we may also have a young D ready to come up and play top 4.

Some of what you are saying is correct, but I think things will happen faster than that i.e., 2023-24. I think it could be a bigger challenge than some seem to be thinking. It's not an impossible situation, or an impending disaster. But, it is more a case of bigger adjustments or things that will need to get it done & fit things in. At least that's what I have observed after playing around with the numbers and building different spreadsheets. I'll be happy if I'm wrong and always interested in some thorough (and accurate) analysis & presentation of the numbers.

 

[Qward]

Don't feel too bad, I put $100 down on KD joining the Raptors.

Kraft Dinner?

 

[HSF]

Some of what you are saying is correct, but I think things will happen faster than that i.e., 2023-24. I think it could be a bigger challenge than some seem to be thinking. It's not an impossible situation, or an impending disaster. But, it is more a case of bigger adjustments or things that will need to get it done & fit things in. At least that's what I have observed after playing around with the numbers and building different spreadsheets. I'll be happy if I'm wrong and always interested in some thorough (and accurate) analysis & presentation of the numbers.

some guys like Sanderson will probably get bridged which is more than fine