Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Senscore]

Honestly surprised something with Giroux hasn’t happened yet based on what I was told about things being worked on in the background.

Zetterlund might be a variable to consider now

 

[playasRus]

I really want to sign Fabbro.

Crazy if he pans out after being a waiver pick up.

Kind of like Boqvist turning it around finally from injuries too but after Norris, doubt teams looking for any IL guys.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Honestly surprised something with Giroux hasn’t happened yet based on what I was told about things being worked on in the background.

Next time I am at the game I'll look around for clues and get back to you.

 

[GCK]

Any ideas for a 4C as a free agent? Someone like Eller, Faksa, Dowd, Bjugstad, Lazar, etc.

Does would be solid.

 

[GCK]

Less than half that, + - 6%. The biggest discrepancy in the NHL is Seattle to Montreal which is an average tax rate of 43.4% vs 49.77%. Any other state vs any other province is less. *Source, I did the math for the 82 game schedule.

US federal tax + minor state taxes (like infrastructure tax) that people like to ignore + 41 away games that are taxed at local rates = less of a gap than people think. It's the most blown out of proportion flavour of the month debate in the NHL right now.

Factor in how far the US dollar goes in Canada (relative to the absurd cost of living in major US cities) and the 'tax free' advantage in places like Texas, Florida, Vegas and Washington is a complete mirage.

It makes no sense that people are even talking about it considering the factors at play and it's an excuse that needs to go away.

Ontario and Quebec are 53% while no tax states are around 39%. It’s a massive difference. Add in sales tax differences which reduces cost of living differences.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Ontario and Quebec are 53% while no tax states are around 39%. It’s a massive difference. Add in sales tax differences which reduces cost of living differences.

Now remove 41 games from that calculation.

It’s complicated, especially when you add in deductions some players can get.
Example Auston Matthews pays less tax than a player playing in Florida.

Property taxes are crazy in Florida.
It it is still an advantageous.

 

[BigRig4]

Now remove 41 games from that calculation.

It’s complicated, especially when you add in deductions some players can get.
Example Auston Matthews pays less tax than a player playing in Florida.

Property taxes are crazy in Florida.
It it is still an advantageous.

I wonder if there’s advantageous divisions? I’m thinking probably not since they’re split by time zone so you’re getting a mix of southern tax-free states with the northern states/provinces with higher taxes.

 

[PlayersLtd]

Ontario and Quebec are 53% while no tax states are around 39%. It’s a massive difference. Add in sales tax differences which reduces cost of living differences.

The lowest 'no tax state' is Washington at 40.20% by the time you add a couple minor state levies on income. Quebec is 53.15%. But when you factor the 41 away games, where players pay tax in that jurisdiction, the average tax paid by a Kraken player goes up to 43.4% and the average tax paid by a Montreal player goes down to 49.77%, for an overall difference of 6.4%. This is based on the 2024-25 away schedule for both teams and Seattle / Montreal is the most extreme comparison.

Although 6.4% might seem massive to you, it certainly isn't the 14% that you thought.

Sales tax in most 'no tax states' (with the exception of Oregon who doesn't have an NHL team) is 6%, so yes, we pay 7% more there, although not in Alberta.

Based on the major cities I have been to lately in the US, the + - 7% additional tax on income and goods doesn't even come close to offsetting the high cost of living in the US. Seattle / Vancouver, two cities I spend multiple weekends in per year, are on completely different scales in terms of cost of living.

And that is all BEFORE you factor in how far the US dollar goes in Canada, since players are paid in US dollars. It is also before you factor in the tax deferral programs in Canada which are designed for athletes.

I stand by my statement. This idea that 'no tax states' offer some unfair advantage over Canadian provinces is a complete mirage.

 

[Big Muddy]

How much do you think a player saves in taxes playing in Texas vs Ontario?

I’m curious as to why you ask this question? I lived in Texas for 6 years, although I was born, raised and have worked in Ontario. I hope you haven't assumed I don’t know the “state” tax advantages of Texas?

There would be a saving for the player based on no taxes for “home” games. The taxes for “away” games would be based on the tax jurisdiction the game is played in. So, there’s no simple, accurate answer that I could give other than what I have stated here AND in my original post that you responded to.

I merely commented on the “weather”, that’s all. I have found in the past that some Canadians think that people are outside & enjoying the amenable weather in Texas year round. In fact, Texans spend their time in their air-conditioned homes (offices, etc.) in the summer.

 

[PlayersLtd]

I’m curious as to why you ask this question? I lived in Texas for 6 years, although I was born, raised and have worked in Ontario. Do you think (assume) I don’t know the “state” tax advantages of Texas?

There would be a saving for the player based on no taxes for “home” games. The taxes for “away” games would be based on the tax jurisdiction the game is played in. So, there’s no simple, accurate answer that I could give other than what I have stated here AND in my original post that you responded to.

I merely commented on the “weather”, that’s all. I have found in the past that some Canadians think that people are outside & enjoying the amenable weather in Texas year round. In fact, Texans spend their time in their air-conditioned homes (offices, etc.) in the summer.

I spent 3 winters in Dallas and although I was able to comfortably play golf all winter long, I also experienced ice storms and cold(ish) weather.

Sorry if I misunderstood. Thought you were referencing the tax advantage which I believe is a lazy argument these days as I've outlined in other posts.

 

[Big Muddy]

I spent 3 winters in Dallas and although I was able to comfortably play golf all winter long, I also experienced ice storms and cold(ish) weather.

Sorry if I misunderstood. Thought you were referencing the tax advantage which I believe is a lazy argument these days as I've outlined in other posts.

No worries mate. Yes, one winter a few years ago they had some snow & cold weather in the winter and many people were out of power for 4 days. I had a lot of wood for the fireplace, so I slept on a couch in front of the fireplace. The Texas electrical power grid and generation facilities were not robust enough to handle the snow & cold, so a lot of people had burst pipes and considerable water damage to their homes as a result.

I just have found the discussions based on weather interesting in the past. In warm climate locations, you can have just as much extreme weather as you do in cold climates, but that is often under appreciated and/or overlooked.

 

[Micklebot]

Ontario and Quebec are 53% while no tax states are around 39%. It’s a massive difference. Add in sales tax differences which reduces cost of living differences.

The tax advantage certainly exists, but it's probably not as big as it seems once you deal with things like home/away games, Signing bonuses for non-residents, RCA packages, and other mitigation strategies.

In the end though, what matters is the perception from players, what are the odds that these players see past the tax withholding on their pay stub, and actually compare the end of year real dollars kept after filling out all your taxes, getting credits as per the established tax treaties, and any savings they might realize if they make us of an RCA or what not.

 

[Micklebot]

I spent 3 winters in Dallas and although I was able to comfortably play golf all winter long, I also experienced ice storms and cold(ish) weather.

speaking of which....

 

[Golden_Jet]

speaking of which....

Yep just started up the generator, just in case.

 

[PlayersLtd]

speaking of which....

In Ottawa? Im out west, out of the loop. Crazy.

 

[zenator]

I see the Sens at about $88 million for next season, including reasonable estimates for Zetterlund, Kleven, Matinpalo, and Merilainen (RFAs), Giroux, and 2 new 4th liners (UFAs).

Since Jensen has only 1 year until RFA, and he'll be 35, I'd like to sign a solid defensive #4 RHD UFA.

I like having 10 top 9 forwards, would like to have 5 top 4 defensemen. With everyone healthy, a bottom pairing of Kleven-Jensen, along with Matinpalo as #7 would be nice. We'd have 3 balanced pairings, each with a defensive guy paired with a great skater.

The cap will be $95.5 mil next year, so we certainly can sign someone for $5-6 million.

What suitable UFA RHDs will be available?

Adam Larsson would be my ideal candidate. A solid defender, certainly upgrades our #4, and we know Swedes like the lifestyle and weather in Ottawa.

Maybe Neal Pionk, if he wants better weather and a more exciting city? But American, so would take an overpay. He is better than Larsson.

Lesser RHD available are Fabbro, Perbix, and Kovacevic.

If Giroux retires, freeing up $, maybe go after Ekblad, although I don't see him leaving Florida for Ottawa without a substantial overpay.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I see the Sens at about $88 million for next season, including reasonable estimates for Zetterlund, Kleven, Matinpalo, and Merilainen (RFAs), Giroux, and 2 new 4th liners (UFAs).

Since Jensen has only 1 year until RFA, and he'll be 35, I'd like to sign a solid defensive #4 RHD UFA.

I like having 10 top 9 forwards, would like to have 5 top 4 defensemen. With everyone healthy, a bottom pairing of Kleven-Jensen, along with Matinpalo as #7 would be nice. We'd have 3 balanced pairings, each with a defensive guy paired with a great skater.

The cap will be $95.5 mil next year, so we certainly can sign someone for $5-6 million.

What suitable UFA RHDs will be available?

Adam Larsson would be my ideal candidate. A solid defender, certainly upgrades our #4, and we know Swedes like the lifestyle and weather in Ottawa.

Maybe Neal Pionk, if he wants better weather and a more exciting city? But American, so would take an overpay. He is better than Larsson.

Lesser RHD available are Fabbro, Perbix, and Kovacevic.

If Giroux retires, freeing up $, maybe go after Ekblad, although I don't see him leaving Florida for Ottawa without a substantial overpay.

Adam Larsson has an albatross contract, a dman who can't move a puck to save his life. No thank you. Kovacevic just got signed. I'm looking at Fabbro.

 

[zenator]

Adam Larsson has an albatross contract, a dman who can't move a puck to save his life. No thank you. Kovacevic just got signed. I'm looking at Fabbro.

Larsson's contract is up, he's UFA. Maybe we get a reasonable deal. I only care if he can defend (don't follow Seattle, so I can't speak for that), Chabot would do the puck moving in pair 2.

I think ideally, we'd get Pionk, which would be very difficult.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Larsson's contract is up, he's UFA. Maybe we get a reasonable deal. I only care if he can defend (don't follow Seattle, so I can't speak for that), Chabot would do the puck moving in pair 2.

I think ideally, we'd get Pionk, which would be very difficult.

He re-signed with the Kraken. It's an albatross.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I see the Sens at about $88 million for next season, including reasonable estimates for Zetterlund, Kleven, Matinpalo, and Merilainen (RFAs), Giroux, and 2 new 4th liners (UFAs).

Since Jensen has only 1 year until RFA, and he'll be 35, I'd like to sign a solid defensive #4 RHD UFA.

I like having 10 top 9 forwards, would like to have 5 top 4 defensemen. With everyone healthy, a bottom pairing of Kleven-Jensen, along with Matinpalo as #7 would be nice. We'd have 3 balanced pairings, each with a defensive guy paired with a great skater.

The cap will be $95.5 mil next year, so we certainly can sign someone for $5-6 million.

What suitable UFA RHDs will be available?

Adam Larsson would be my ideal candidate. A solid defender, certainly upgrades our #4, and we know Swedes like the lifestyle and weather in Ottawa.

Maybe Neal Pionk, if he wants better weather and a more exciting city? But American, so would take an overpay. He is better than Larsson.

Lesser RHD available are Fabbro, Perbix, and Kovacevic.

If Giroux retires, freeing up $, maybe go after Ekblad, although I don't see him leaving Florida for Ottawa without a substantial overpay.

I don’t see the 88 million possible.
Did you include Colin White and Korpisalo
Possible bonus overages
Do you have a 20 or 22 man roster?

 

[BondraTime]

Rob DiMaio deserves his flowers

This team has been absolutete junk, bottom of the league, with their pro scouting over the duration of the rebuild, and even a few years prior.

In the span of his 9 months with the Sens, we have added:

Amadio
Ullmark
Cozens
Zetterlund
Jensen
Perron
Cousins

The previous 10 years, the most notable additions from the pro scouting department are:
Giroux
Dadonov
Del Zotto
Gudbranson
Stepan
Talbot
Motte
Duchene (1 season)
DBC (1 season)
Chychrun (1 season)
Joseph
Burrows
Zaitsev
C. Brown
Duclair (let walk)
Anisimov (was a give and get so its fine)
Boedker
Tierny
Demelo
Reilly
Hainsey
Watson
Galchenyuk
Ennis
Gambrell

 

[zenator]

I used PuckPedia, but noticed I missed White and Korpisalo.

https://puckpedia.com/team/ottawa-senators

Here's my breakdown, I'm rounding numbers, I'll add in the buyouts this time...

8 Forwards... $42.2 mil
4 Defense... $24.7 mil
1 Goalie... $8.3 mil
Buyouts... $1.9 mil
Total signed... $77.1 mil

RFAs
Zetterlund $2.4 mil
Kleven $1.3 mil
Matinpalo $1 mil
Merilainen $1.2 mil

UFAs
Giroux $4 mil (same as Perron, they are comparable)

Total $87.1 mil (10F, 6D, 2G)

Need 3F: let's say 3 guys making $800,000, like Cousins, Gregor, Gaudette, Highmore = $2.4 mil.

Total $89.5 mil.

This is 13 forwards, 6D, and 2G = 21 players. I'm assuming we add a RHD like discussed, giving a 22 man roster. I'll also leave $800,000 for when callups are needed (23rd man), whether it be F, D, or G.

$95.5 mil - $89.5 mil - 800K = $5.2 mil left over.

So, there is $5.2 mil available to sign a RHD. Those darn buyouts! Maybe we can shave another $400K off of the RFAs, yielding $5.6 remaining?

 

[zenator]

Rob DiMaio deserves his flowers

Absolutely!

Crazy that our pro scouting is now better than our amateur scouting, which hasn't done well for 5 years. We clearly should have picked Zayne Parekh. Look at the impact of Hudson. We could use creativity to increase 5 on 5 scoring. Time for Steady Steve to add a few more amateur scouts.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I used PuckPedia, but noticed I missed White and Korpisalo.

https://puckpedia.com/team/ottawa-senators

Here's my breakdown, I'm rounding numbers, I'll add in the buyouts this time...

8 Forwards... $42.2 mil
4 Defense... $24.7 mil
1 Goalie... $8.3 mil
Buyouts... $1.9 mil
Total signed... $77.1 mil

RFAs
Zetterlund $2.4 mil
Kleven $1.3 mil
Matinpalo $1 mil
Merilainen $1.2 mil

UFAs
Giroux $4 mil (same as Perron, they are comparable)

Total $87.1 mil (10F, 6D, 2G)

Need 3F: let's say 3 guys making $800,000, like Cousins, Gregor, Gaudette, Highmore = $2.4 mil.

Total $89.5 mil.

This is 13 forwards, 6D, and 2G = 21 players. I'm assuming we add a RHD like discussed, giving a 22 man roster. I'll also leave $800,000 for when callups are needed (23rd man), whether it be F, D, or G.

$95.5 mil - $89.5 mil - 800K = $5.2 mil left over.

So, there is $5.2 mil available to sign a RHD. Those darn buyouts! Maybe we can shave another $400K off of the RFAs, yielding $5.6 remaining?

Nice you added the White and Korpisalo like I suggested,
but you also need to account for bonus overages (~ million, could be slightly more).
Then would also nice to have ~2 million wiggle room.

 

[zenator]

Well, since we have less room than I thought, we'll probably have Jensen as #4 next year, and will be 1 top 4 injury away from trouble. How much will Fabbro get, and how good is he? What about Ruutta, does he have anything left (depth player).
In 2026, when the cap goes up again, we'll lose Giroux, Perron, and Jensen; I suppose we could sign 1-2 of them, but they're all getting old. More likely we sign 1 UFA F and 1 UFA D that are good players, plus a couple depth guys.
The best realistic RHD UFAs in 2026 will be R Andersson and Dobson (if they aren't already signed by CGY and NYI). They'll be in line for big raises, but are very good players. For a lesser guy, how good is Josh Manson at this point?